Petrol Price Projections

cormie

Hi,
I know there's a few threads on petrol around at the moment. I'd just like to hear any information on how to project future pricing. Since I've started driving it's gone from about 87cent to an average price now of about €1.05. Is it predicted to ever fall as low as 87c again or is this the start of the Peak Oil process? I just filled my tank up by €20 at 1.03.9p/l in Rathnew. This is the cheapest I am likely to see for the next €20 worth of Petrol in my car. However, I didn't fill it because I'm still hoping it's going to drop down to what it was this time last year. Is this ever going to happen or is it just going to rise and rise? Should I be rejoicing when I find it at €1.03.9 again and fill it up till it's flowing out of my tank?

mike65

While prices wont go up in a continous line in the overall petrol and diesel is only going in one direction. Unless the dollar collapses then the exchange rate will mean a euro buys more. I've noticed prices have crept up a few cents in the last two weeks. 100.9 at Tesco in Waterford was 97.9 a month back.

Mike.

cormie

I don't suppose there's anyway you can go into a garage and hand them a few hundred Euro and say you'll be back for the rest at a later date:o

jayok

If only. AFAIK petrol actually has a best before date! Ever leave petrol for the lawnmower on the shelf for a while. No bang there... so we can't even squirrel it at home.

5500

Can anyone explain why its so quick to take a hike in price but never comes down as quick?

Eg looking in the business news you might see i na headline "brent crude prices falling over $5 dollars in comparison to last month"

Whereas you might see a cent drop off the price of a litre within a few days,if you go back to when the oil prices were rising a couple of cent were being thrown on every day

stevenmu

I think the general consensus is that it'll never really go back down below €1.00 and in the long term will generally trend up. The main reason given for this is usually increased usage by developing nations taking more of the relatively fixed supply, China and India being the biggest developers. The recent events in Iraq have obscured this somewhat with wild price rises and drops due to day by day events, but overall the trends were pretty much leading us to where we are today anyway.

In the medium term there's likely to be more wild fluctuations due to the developing situation in Iran. The US has painted itself into a corner with the Iraq i situation. They can't very will sit there and watch Iran do exactly what they accused Iraq of doing, and if they can't convince to UN/EU/rest of NATO to intervene they'll have to do it themselves. This of course means prices will skyrocket again.

mikemac

mike65 wrote:

While prices wont go up in a continous line in the overall petrol and diesel is only going in one direction. Unless the dollar collapses then the exchange rate will mean a euro buys more. I've noticed prices have crept up a few cents in the last two weeks. 100.9 at Tesco in Waterford was 97.9 a month back.

Mike.

The prices you're qouting are cheap.

The dollar will collpase in 2007 althougth the euro is overvalued at the moment.

mike65

Cheaper than most but still going upwards!

Mike.

FuzzyWuzzyWazza

Just thinking back to the era of punts, as far as i can remember i was paying 95p(ish), but when the price changed over it actually got cheaper, mid 80 cent.

if 95p = 120c, what happened?!? I always just preseumed it had something to do with the common market and all thet stuff.

So as far as I can see we have been getting (and still are) a decent price on our petrol.

or I could be slighhtly insane.

Victor

micmclo wrote:

The dollar will collpase in 2007 althougth the euro is overvalued at the moment.

So you are saying both the dollar and euro are overvalued at the moment?

Tipsy Mac

I'd be expecting by October/November next year the price of a litre will be 1.35/1.40 that is of course providing there are no new wars or conflicts. It should then around Christmas go down to about 1.10 to 1.15.