Bucking the odds

MadsL · 13-01-2006 11:46am #1

First Hand STT
You are on the button with 6d7d
Everyone limps in and you call.
Flop
5c6h7s
BB moves all-in
MP calls all-in
Two obvious flopped straights, and you are 6-1 against improving.

Is there an implied value in a call here as the outcome is either early exit or 3-1 chip lead in the STT. Or should your decision be based purely on the pot odds.

Call or Fold..

roryc · 13-01-2006 12:01pm

You cant really say 'two obvious flopped straights'.

They could have trips or two pair.

IF they both have straights, which I think is highly unlikely, then I would fold here. If I was up against trips I am most likely even further behind, possibly drawing dead.

Easy Fold

MadsL · 13-01-2006 12:03pm

I'm discounting trips on the basis of no pre-flop raise. With this many limpers at least one flopped straight I'd say. But the question is in the situation, is there value in the call for the massive CL advantage in the STT??

Norwich Fan Rob · 13-01-2006 12:13pm

the implied odds of even a triple up here are poor.
if u win u triple up, if u lose u go out, so even if u were close to evens to win (and u may be drawing dead here) it would be marginal to call as first hand, even tripling up does not more than double your chances of winning imo. In this u are clearly way behind so instant fold.

Norwich Fan Rob · 13-01-2006 12:15pm

how can u discount trips, i would suggest thats a very likely holding as on that board u need to bet out to protect against those draw.
why would someone in mid pos raise with 55, 66 or 77 first hand in an STT?
Raising with 55, 66 on the first hand is very bad play imo, try and get them in for cheap. Blinds are negligable, u want a multi way pot with these hands, so that if u hit trips, top pair etc will pay u off.
Completely different late on or short handed, where u want to make it heads up or just take down the blinds.

ianmc38 · 13-01-2006 12:16pm

Don't think a raise with 55/66/77 is likely preflop here.

roryc · 13-01-2006 12:24pm

there is no way I would call here. Even on the off chance that they do both have flopped straights, you are still WAY behind.

If you fold then one of the other players will most likely be knocked out. And you will be one step closer to the money. You can wait for much better options to get your chips in. Easy fold

I would even think about folding bottom set on this board.

MadsL · 13-01-2006 12:58pm

how can u discount trips, i would suggest thats a very likely holding as on that board u need to bet out to protect against those draw

Would you push all-in here with 77,
1. first to act,
2. MP
3. button?

Ste05 · 13-01-2006 1:26pm

MadsL wrote:

Would you push all-in here with 77,
1. first to act,
2. MP
3. button?

Equally would you push all-in here with a flopped straight??

The call is what makes this an easy fold.

As to your Implied odds, I would think that because this is the first hand of the STT, the implied odds just aren't there. There are (presumably this is a full table) 8/9 other players with a similar stack to yours, you will get better opportunities in the future. I don't think I would ever call here....

Gholimoli · 13-01-2006 1:47pm

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

the implied odds of even a triple up here are poor.
if u win u triple up, if u lose u go out, so even if u were close to evens to win (and u may be drawing dead here) it would be marginal to call as first hand, even tripling up does not more than double your chances of winning imo. In this u are clearly way behind so instant fold.

Im not sure if im right here and not sure about the maths so please let me know if im wrong.
According to the ICM theory, your chances of winning a 9 handed STT at the very start is 1/9.basically the theory argues that everything else being the same, your chances of winning the tourney is a based on your stack/total chips in play.
Say in 9 handed game every one starts with 2k.
Total chips in play=18K
Your stack =2K
Your chances of winning =2K/18K=1/9.
Now if you call and win this you will have 6K.
Your chances of winning is 6K/18K=1/3
So if I understand this theory correctly then if you call and win it not only doubles your chances of winning but triples it.
Obviously if you call and loose then your chances of winning is 0 and if you fold your chances remain the same.

RoundTower · 13-01-2006 2:15pm

Yes this is more or less right, but your chance of coming second or third are not tripled. So on average you will win less than 3 times as much money with 3 times the starting stack. This is a clear fold and this is not what is meant by "implied odds".

Culchie · 13-01-2006 2:18pm

RoundTower wrote:

Yes this is more or less right, but your chance of coming second or third are not tripled. So on average you will win less than 3 times as much money with 3 times the starting stack. This is a clear fold and this is not what is meant by "implied odds".

Roundtower, will you do a post on implied odds?

Norwich Fan Rob · 13-01-2006 2:35pm

this is wrong gholimoli.

u now have 1/3rd of the chips in play, so u could argue that u have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, as opposed to 1 in 9 at the start (but it doesnt really work like that either, as u wont win 1 in 3 with these chips at this early stage)
(for example someone with 2000 chips is far less than twice as likely to win than someone with 1000 chips.)

However, 50% of the time u will be out, so for 0 EV, ie to breakeven, u would need to win 50% of the time.

if u call, 50% of the time u are out.
and u can argue (but i wont argree) that 33% of the time u will win.
even accepting a 33% win rate, its still bad to call (if u are 50% sure u will win).

this is what your maths is saying.

but a fairer view i would say is 50% out straight away, 20% win from this spot.

if u are a winning player, u are taking a totally unnecesary risk here, as u can outplay these players over the course of the game, this is another factor.

finally, all of this is assuming if u call, u have a 50% of winning the hand, so u want to be very strong, and even then as ive shown above its a fold.

so in the case above , its the quickest fold u can make.

Daithio · 13-01-2006 2:43pm

Here is an example of getting implied odds to call. You hold 10 8, and the flop comes A 7 J. You are certain your opponent has AA preflop, so has now flopped top set. You are both deep stacked with 20k in chips each. He bets 600 into a pot of 1200. So, you are getting 3 to 1 on your money if you call, but the odds of hitting your straight are 6 to 1, so basic pot odds logic would say that you should fold. But you know that if you hit your straight your opponent, who is a bit of a fish, will pay you off for all his chips. So taking into account implied odds, you are actually getting much better odds than 6 to 1 on your money, so you should definitely call. Pot odds take into account what is in the pot at the time of your call, implied odds take into account the potential sized pot you will win if you hit your miracle card.

Culchie · 13-01-2006 2:55pm

Yes, I'm OK with that, however is their any 'premium' or % you would use.

i.e After what point do you become a card chasing 'fish'

?

MadsL · 13-01-2006 2:58pm

i.e After what point do you become a card chasing 'fish'

Usually 2am, $50 down

Daithio · 13-01-2006 3:01pm

Culchie wrote:

Yes, I'm OK with that, however is their any 'premium' or % you would use.

i.e After what point do you become a card chasing 'fish' ?

I don't have a percentage or a definite formula, but I won't call if it will leave me short stacked afterwards. By definition though this rarely happens, as to be getting implied odds you need to have a decent amount left in your stack to be getting payed off with. Basically it's only really something to take into consideration in deep stacked play. In the example I gave above I think I'd call a bet of up to 1500. There's no particular formula I've used to work this out, but it's about what I'd feel comfortable with.

Culchie · 13-01-2006 3:01pm

lol.

I use the principle of implied odds quite alot, but it is more from 'feel' or guesstimate anaylsis of hand/player situation.

I was just wondering is there a certain point or % where it is proven to be -EV

edit ..clash of posts, thanks though

Daithio · 13-01-2006 3:04pm

Culchie wrote:

lol.

I use the principle of implied odds quite alot, but it is more from 'feel' or guesstimate anaylsis of hand/player situation.

I was just wondering is there a certain point or % where it is proven to be -EV

edit ..clash of posts, thanks though

There probably is Culchie but I'm just too lazy to figure it out. I'm sure HJ NickOD or Roundtower have done some thinking about it. The guesstimate method usually works for me though.

accensi0n · 13-01-2006 3:07pm

Daithio wrote:

Here is an example of getting implied odds to call. You hold 10 8, and the flop comes A 7 J. You are certain your opponent has AA preflop, so has now flopped top set. You are both deep stacked with 20k in chips each. He bets 600 into a pot of 1200. So, you are getting 3 to 1 on your money if you call, but the odds of hitting your straight are 6 to 1, so basic pot odds logic would say that you should fold. But you know that if you hit your straight your opponent, who is a bit of a fish, will pay you off for all his chips. So taking into account implied odds, you are actually getting much better odds than 6 to 1 on your money, so you should definitely call. Pot odds take into account what is in the pot at the time of your call, implied odds take into account the potential sized pot you will win if you hit your miracle card.

Surely its a little over 9-1 to hit your inside straight draw on the turn?

Daithio · 13-01-2006 3:09pm

Yeah I meant over two cards which I think is close enough to 6 to 1. Not certain though, but that's what I've been going by for the last year or so.

EDIT Just worked it out, I think it's actually about 5 to 1 over two cards.

accensi0n · 13-01-2006 3:21pm

But your not going to get to see both cards!

He'll probably bet again on the turn.

Shortstack · 13-01-2006 3:27pm

Implied odds are pretty straight forward.

Board is A 6 10

you hold 78 and need a gutshot for straight. You are confident that your opponent has a hand he will pay you off with, ie: AA,10 10 or A10.

There is 1200 in pot already and he bets 800 meaning you are getting 5/2 to call. The odds you need to be getting to call for a gutshot is 11/1 with 1 card to come or 11/2 with 2 to come. However you have 20,000 chips and he has 34,000, If you can get his stack in the middle when you hit you are getting well over 20/1 implied odds which is enough to call.

Gholimoli · 13-01-2006 4:23pm

RoundTower wrote:

Yes this is more or less right, but your chance of coming second or third are not tripled. So on average you will win less than 3 times as much money with 3 times the starting stack. This is a clear fold and this is not what is meant by "implied odds".

this actually an interesting subject and i would love to be able to get my head around it.
so we agree that our chances of becoming 1st does triple when we get triple the starting chips.
now suppose our chances of becoming 2nd and 3rd with our starting stack is x and y .
now (and this is the part that i could be very wrong in) if x is a direct function of your stack size(again everything else being the same ie skill level etc) then by increasing your stack size you must surely increase x and the same goes for y.so even though by tripling your stack size x and y dont become 3x and 3y but they each become a number that is greater than their initial size.
so how many % of times does the our hand have to win here to make this +EV call?

RoundTower · 13-01-2006 4:45pm

Gholimoli wrote:

this actually an interesting subject and i would love to be able to get my head around it.
so we agree that our chances of becoming 1st does triple when we get triple the starting chips.
now suppose our chances of becoming 2nd and 3rd with our starting stack is x and y .
now (and this is the part that i could be very wrong in) if x is a direct function of your stack size(again everything else being the same ie skill level etc) then by increasing your stack size you must surely increase x and the same goes for y.so even though by tripling your stack size x and y dont become 3x and 3y but they each become a number that is greater than their initial size.
so how many % of times does the our hand have to win here to make this +EV call?

You don't necessarily increase x and y when you increase your stack size. For example, if you won nearly all the chips early on, you would be almost certain to come first, and your chances of coming second and third would actually decrease. But in general they do increase when you build your stack early on in the tournament.

Go to 2+2 and look in the STT section for something called ICM, it is one way of modelling how these numbers change. I have never actually used it but I think I know how it works, just like flying the space shuttle. I reckon the answer here is about 38% which is a LOT given you would normally need only 30% to break even here in a cash game.

Norwich Fan Rob · 13-01-2006 4:46pm

this is totally flawed, your chances of coming first does not triple.
chips do not equal equity.
your chances of winning do not equal your percentage chip holding......

RoundTower · 13-01-2006 4:55pm

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

this is totally flawed, your chances of coming first does not triple.
chips do not equal equity.
your chances of winning do not equal your percentage chip holding......

Could you explain this please, and posit an alternative model? I think they're fairly close.

Norwich Fan Rob · 13-01-2006 5:13pm

if u double your chips early in a tournament, u are not doubling your chances of winning.

RoundTower · 13-01-2006 5:33pm

Why not?

Gholimoli · 13-01-2006 5:37pm

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

this is totally flawed, your chances of coming first does not triple.
chips do not equal equity.
your chances of winning do not equal your percentage chip holding......

this theary is not wrong at all or at least Sklansky does not think so.
if your playing heads up with some one else you is just as good as you and you both have same stack size,what are your chances of winning?
well in order to win you need to get all the chips .
how often do you get all the chips?just as often as your opponent will so your over all chances of winning is 1/2 or 50% which is the same exact ratio of your stack size /total chips in play.
what if there was 3 of you?
how often would you get all the chips?just as often as the other two would
so your over all chances of winning is 1/3 .again ratio of your stack /total chips in play.
how is this wrong?

Bucking the odds

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