Beautiful Vision

finnpark

Beautiful Vision is out today in the 2.15pm at ;Limerick.

Anyone else fancy it to overcome Mounthenry and the rest?

Pighead

Not really to be honest. Beautiful Vision was beaten fair and square by 6 lengths by Mounthenry last time out (same terms as today).
Not sure what the goings like today in Limerick though.Mounthenry seems to have only raced on soft ground so far. Any idea what prices both horses will start?

finnpark

Pighead wrote:

Not really to be honest. Beautiful Vision was beaten fair and square by 6 lengths by Mounthenry last time out (same terms as today).
Not sure what the goings like today in Limerick though.Mounthenry seems to have only raced on soft ground so far. Any idea what prices both horses will start?

Bad drift in price on Beautiful Vision on Betfair, hes gone out to 4/1 and could yet end up 9/2. Mounthenry will probably go off evens favourite.

Pighead

Hmmmm thats strange.Hes been backed into 3-1 from 4-1 with Paddy Powers at the moment. Mounthenry steady at 4-5.
I was thinking that perhaps Paddy Power reads boards.ie and slashed the odds on your tip Beautiful vision after your Staunton scoop came through on Saturday. Once bitten and all that.

finnpark

Pighead wrote:

Hmmmm thats strange.Hes been backed into 3-1 from 4-1 with Paddy Powers at the moment. Mounthenry steady at 4-5.
I was thinking that perhaps Paddy Power reads boards.ie and slashed the odds on your tip Beautiful vision after your Staunton scoop came through on Saturday. Once bitten and all that.

I did it ew (small bet) at 4/1 so hopefully it will be placed and wont lose much.

PP are strange. I have a theory that says they create these false impressions to take the heat off other horses in the race. Not many of these "gambles" seem to win.

Yes, hopefully now i will get big money off them soon for Stan. I didn't get him at 40/1 though.

Pighead

Not a false gamble this time Finnpark. Beautiful Vision now 5-2 and thats not just Paddy Powers. Favourite drifts to evens. Can't understand why all the moneys going on Beautiful Vision to be honest. Ah well we'll find out all in a few minutes. Good luck with your bet.

finnpark

Pighead wrote:

Not a false gamble this time Finnpark. Beautiful Vision now 5-2 and thats not just Paddy Powers. Favourite drifts to evens. Can't understand why all the moneys going on Beautiful Vision to be honest. Ah well we'll find out all in a few minutes. Good luck with your bet.

Dohh!!!!!!:mad:

Wasn't out to win at all.:mad:

It was a false gamble. Their other "gamble" is the hot fav in the 2.45 at lim.

It opened much too high in the morning for my liking.

Pighead

finnpark wrote:

Dohh!!!!!!:mad:

Wasn't out to win at all.:mad:

It was a false gamble. Their other "gamble" is the hot fav in the 2.45 at lim.

Just out of interest whos the "Their" you speak off? Who do you think initiaited this "false gamble"?

masterK

I presume he's talking about the bookmakers, as for false gambles instigated by Paddy Power, I think you're way off the mark there. There must have been support for Beatiful Vision for it to shorten up and for Mounthenry to drift to 11/10. They hardly let the winner drift out to such a big price to do the punters a favour!! Remember these are inexperienced novices you are talking about, they are improving at different rates. There was obviously a good word for Beatiful Vision, hence the market support.

If paddy power were to create false gambles by shortening up horses that don't have a chance and by letting horses with a great chance drift they'd be out of business is a very short time.

Healio

Well today was some what of a disappointment, the horse wasnt overly fancied, but wasnt expected to run so bad. The jumping today led a bit to be desired. Looking at the form, Mouthenry was the one, and at even money, was a steal for those who backed it
.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

I presume he's talking about the bookmakers, as for false gambles instigated by Paddy Power, I think you're way off the mark there. There must have been support for Beatiful Vision for it to shorten up and for Mounthenry to drift to 11/10. They hardly let the winner drift out to such a big price to do the punters a favour!! Remember these are inexperienced novices you are talking about, they are improving at different rates. There was obviously a good word for Beatiful Vision, hence the market support.

If paddy power were to create false gambles by shortening up horses that don't have a chance and by letting horses with a great chance drift they'd be out of business is a very short time.

But my point is that they open up at a high price as they know/strongly beleive the horse will not win and then shorten it to its forecast price in order to make it look like there is money on it. Its more of a visual advertisement that an actual shortening of the odds a lot of the time.

The horse that stays steady in the market or opens on the course very short and drifts is always in with a chance.

I have also heard the thory that bookmakers try to have a fav win the 1st race at a meeting in order to get the punters on all the favs.

I think the PP prices should be monitored, I do firmly beleive that it is a ploy.

Hopefully better luck tomorrow.;)

masterK

Finnpark, bookmakers opening up horses at bigger prices than they should be would be commercial suicide, the big time punters (those whose money makes the market move) would be onto them like a shot, if they really believed a horse would not win they would let it drift out in order to make it a more attractive price to back. When a particular bookmaker shortens a horse up significantly that means they have taken a lot of money on that horse and want to make that horse a shorter price in order to discourage any more bets on it.

As for horses that drift somehow having a better chance, I cannot agree with that, more often than not favourites that drift, especially in Irish racing do not win.

If you think these type of things do go on why don't you calculate the overround on the opening show and then again at SP and see if the opening show overround is shorter than the SP overround, by your reasing it should be. I'd guess it will be the opposite in most cases.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

Finnpark, bookmakers opening up horses at bigger prices than they should be would be commercial suicide, the big time punters (those whose money makes the market move) would be onto them like a shot, if they really believed a horse would not win they would let it drift out in order to make it a more attractive price to back. When a particular bookmaker shortens a horse up significantly that means they have taken a lot of money on that horse and want to make that horse a shorter price in order to discourage any more bets on it.

As for horses that drift somehow having a better chance, I cannot agree with that, more often than not favourites that drift, especially in Irish racing do not win.

If you think these type of things do go on why don't you calculate the overround on the opening show and then again at SP and see if the opening show overround is shorter than the SP overround, by your reasing it should be. I'd guess it will be the opposite in most cases.

So who backed it from 4/1 into 5/2 then?

It obviously wasn't the stable so who then lost all this money on it?

All Im saying is that the visual impression PP give on their web site rarely match the performances of these gambles.

Corben Dallas

To be fair MasterK they only lose a lot of money if the quality horse that they 'might' drift on their odds either has a lot of money already on or if the market>(pro gamblers/big money) or attracts more money casue ppl dont believe the shortened horse has a better chance.

Think what Finnpark is suggesting is that if they drift the 'real' fav and shorten the poorer/quick but erratic etc horse and the punters lay into the shortening odds horse (that looks like theres a gamble goin on) and if their is significant action on the poorer fav, it would cancel their (potentia) loss even if the real fav that they drifted wins. I'm sure they would do this v rarely(if it is done) cause its very financially risky, but with some well timed 'words' etc goin out, it could go some way to make this happen.

---

Example of what bookies will do to muddy the waters etc> Paddy Power(himself) was being interviewed on TG4's Greyhound view show and (think Irish Derby) and the interviewer leads of with *"So (Droopys Vieri -think it was this dog) looks red hot fav to win the Derby with performances
like that in the heats he must have every chance to win? and makes some comment that they are trading him already quoting 6/4 etc."
PP responce> "Good dog but i think theres value in Digital in TrapX and (name =>some other recent winner(showed flash of brilliance that had got him into final but not had any other decent consistant winning form) ...... in Trap X should run a strong race..."
** may not be exact transcript of what was said but general gist.

PP Translation "Good dog (<will most def win- wont say any more about him)
I think theres value in Digital in trapX & yadda yadda yadda(transaltion= but why dont u punters back these other dogs cause if everyone lays into 6/4 fav PP will take a canning from this race if it wins.

Same with the 'Distance bets' on red hot favourites in the shops, if the odds are 8/11 etc and worse, they do a win by 2lenghts, 2 to 5 lenghts and over 5 lengths etc. If punters stay away from v short odds favs in the shops (maybe because its only worth betting large amounts because the return is so skinny etc) that the 'Guaranteed winner by x lenghts' special would drum up more business(at longer oods)