Just a quickie - Value Raise this river?

Hectorjelly

24nl opponent is loose bad but not overly so. Preflop reraise is too small (Im tired and used to playing 12). On the river Im pretty confident Im ahead but Im not sure what my opponent could have that he can call me. Always worth giving your opponents a chance to make a mistake though.

You Only Live Twice 4914620-94226 Holdem No Limit $2/$4
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Hand Start.
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Seat 1 : DrGamble has $438
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Seat 2 : moz1984 has $284.73
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Seat 3 : bops has $493.88
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Seat 4 : -martin- has $289.50
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Seat 5 : Hectorjelly has $389.50
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Seat 6 : pete mfc has $233.25
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Hectorjelly is the dealer.
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : pete mfc posted small blind.
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : DrGamble posted big blind.
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Game [94226] started with 5 players.
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Jan 11 23:58:35] : Seat 5 : Hectorjelly has Ks Kh
[Jan 11 23:58:39] : moz1984 called $4 and raised $15
[Jan 11 23:58:45] : -martin- folded.
[Jan 11 23:58:51] : Hectorjelly called $19 and raised $30
[Jan 11 23:58:52] : pete mfc folded.
[Jan 11 23:58:52] : DrGamble folded.
[Jan 11 23:58:55] : moz1984 called $30
[Jan 11 23:58:55] : Dealing flop.
[Jan 11 23:58:55] : Board cards [Qc 7s 5d]
[Jan 11 23:59:01] : moz1984 bet $20
[Jan 11 23:59:04] : Hectorjelly called $20
[Jan 11 23:59:04] : Dealing turn.
[Jan 11 23:59:04] : Board cards [Qc 7s 5d Qd]
[Jan 11 23:59:08] : moz1984 bet $25
[Jan 11 23:59:09] : Hectorjelly called $25
[Jan 11 23:59:09] : Dealing river.
[Jan 11 23:59:09] : Board cards [Qc 7s 5d Qd 8d]
[Jan 11 23:59:21] : moz1984 bet $15

shoutman

to be honest I'd just call here,

It looks to me to be a very dangerous board, and with you describing him as being a loose, bad player. It is a possibility that he may have pocket sevens/eights, or better.

I suppose its the whole risk/reward scenario again. But for me it would be a flat call.

Lafortezza

Why no flop raise?
The river bet looks like he has a hand he wants to show down as cheaply as possible, TT or JJ or something. If he has a Q he'd value bet the river with a bigger bet.
Can't see much wrong with a river raise, dunno what he'd call you with though.

Ste05

IMHO, I think I just call here, I can't see anything that you're beating that will call a bet here. It does looks like a blocking bet or the like but still I think it's just too risky. Any reason why you played it so passively post flop. He might possibly call with 1010 - JJ but other than that I can't see anything else...

Doc Farrell

absolutely no raise. :mad:

he could have weird straight, weird trips, not to mention a queen! :mad:

call and be grateful to win with a limpy pocket pair. :mad:

my God man are u out of ur mind! :mad:

or raise..... :rolleyes:

Amaru

You(if indeed it is you) played this hand very strangely. No reraise on that flop? I can't figure out the call on the turn either. You can call or fold this river, because i can't think of many hands your ahead of here that fires on all streets out of position unimproved, except maybe AA, which of course is still bad news for you. I couldn't raise here and i don't think there's much value to be had either.

Hectorjelly

Automatically raising this flop is bad. He has raised preflop (and called a reraise) so lets assume his hand range is 99 - AA AK AQ. If I raise the flop TT JJ/AK will fold, AA and QQ wont. Crucially JJ will continue betting if I call. I have position and 1 pair, there are no draws and one of us has 2 outs. Also and importantly there isnt much in the pot. Calling is best.

Amaru

Alright, thats your line, but then what about the call on the turn then? Can you see TT, JJ and AK betting big again here? Isn't flat calling twice suspicious, meaning it'll be hard to value bet the river?

kencleary

You have to raise here.

The only question to my mind is how much and what to do to an all-in re-raise.

I'd probably pop it another 50. Just enough to make it tempting for an A K to call. He's seen you raise pre-flop then flat call it down to river, he may make your raise for a bluff or if he has PP may put you on smaller PP.

I have to say given his remaining stack i'd call an all-in re-raise too.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

Alright, thats your line, but then what about the call on the turn then? Can you see TT, JJ and AK betting big again here? Isn't flat calling twice suspicious, meaning it'll be hard to value bet the river?

I dont see what raising the turn would achieve bar making it easier for AQ to make money from me and bluff an unlikely but possible AA

Ste05

No I think the way this hand worked out, you extracted the maximum possible value, (if you're ahead) and minimised potential losses (if you are beaten)

Amaru

Hectorjelly wrote:

I dont see what raising the turn would achieve bar making it easier for AQ to make money from me and bluff an unlikely but possible AA

I never said raise the turn (although i think doing this would define his hand, and you are thinking of calling here and raising on the river anyway). I was leaning more towards a fold on the turn. I just can't see what hand range you beat after 2 out of position bets.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

I never said raise the turn (although i think doing this would define his hand, and you are thinking of calling here and raising on the river anyway). I was leaning more towards a fold on the turn. I just can't see what hand range you beat after 2 out of position bets.

That seems crazy to me. I am good here nearly all the time. He amost certainly has JJ. He cant have a set. AQ and AA are the only hands im scared of, and AA is unlikely because of the no 3 bet preflop.

I dont think you should ever raise to define someones hand.

kencleary

Amaru wrote:

I never said raise the turn (although i think doing this would define his hand, and you are thinking of calling here and raising on the river anyway). I was leaning more towards a fold on the turn. I just can't see what hand range you beat after 2 out of position bets.

You'd fold when asked for 25 into a pot approximately 6 times that large when you're behind to so few hands? Sounds like madness to me!

Amaru

What makes you think he has JJ? He's fired on every street. Also, if he's as loose and bad as you say he is, is a set of 7's really that much out of the question? What about KQ?

FWIW, his bet on the river makes me think he has trips or aces, but no house. It looks like he pussied out after the three flush completed on the river.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

What makes you think he has JJ? He's fired on every street. Also, if he's as loose and bad as you say he is, is a set of 7's really that much out of the question? What about KQ?

FWIW, his bet on the river makes me think he has trips or aces, but no house. It looks like he pussied out after the three flush completed on the river.

I dont agree with your handreading analysis at all. His bet on the flop is a bet of weakness. He doesnt like the queen. The bet on the river means he is now sure he doesnt have the best hand but doesnt want to check. The flush draw is a backdoor one in a heads up pot and so can be ignored. If he had a queen he would bet big on the river. So we can remove AQ KQ from his range.

Amaru

If he didn't like the queen, why would he bet out more when a second one came on the turn? It just doesn't make sense. I also have trouble believing he's unsure of whether he's behind or not by the river if he's holding jacks. He can only legitimately beat AK off. His bet again doesn't make sense. If you go back to the original post anyway, if you're sure he has jacks, then why raise? He can't possibly call a bet, so you're saving yourself a bet if he has you beaten, and not gaining anything if he doesn't.

As far as the flush draw, he could very easily think you'd call the continuation bet on the flop with AKs, like what you see on the turn, then call because he gave you correct odds to draw to your flush. Just because you're not thinking about the backdoor flush doesn't mean he's not. I'm sure people still suck out at 2/4.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

If he didn't like the queen, why would he bet out more when a second one came on the turn? It just doesn't make sense. I also have trouble believing he's unsure of whether he's behind or not by the river if he's holding jacks. He can only legitimately beat AK off. His bet again doesn't make sense.

Bad players tend to play bad, their thinking is faulty and so their play wont make sense, however there are reasons as to why they make any given action. Once bad players start betting they dont stop, which is why I flat called the flop, however they leak enormous amounts of information with their bet sizes. His bet on the river told me I was 99% good.

Amaru wrote:

If you go back to the original post anyway, if you're sure he has jacks, then why raise? He can't possibly call a bet, so you're saving yourself a bet if he has you beaten, and not gaining anything if he doesn't.

If Im sure he has jacks then I should raise as I cant lose. I may as well give him a chance to lose money!

bohsman

I would raise but Im not sure I would get a caller, the bet on the river is so weak its praying for a cheap showdown

RoundTower

bohsman wrote:

I would raise but Im not sure I would get a caller, the bet on the river is so weak its praying for a cheap showdown

I wasn't going to raise originally. Even after reading everything Hectorjelly wrote I'm not convinced the villain can't have a real hand, so I still won't raise. I think the rest of the hand you played fine.

Hectorjelly

I thought it was an interesting situation, about as marginal a situation as its possible to get. I did as Ken suggested and made it 50 more - he folded. I think an all in wouild of been better as it looks like a desperation all in bluff rather than a bet for value; allthough in this case I guess it wouldnt of made a difference.

Norwich Fan Rob

I was also sure he had Jacks or 10's, but i didnt think he would call a raise of 50 more, looks too much like hes beat, and with some of the crazy play that goes on, i woulda flat called this river, just in case.
I like the way u played it up to the river.
Ken mentioned he might call 50 more with AK, who in there right mind would do this?

Amaru

Hectorjelly wrote:

Bad players tend to play bad, their thinking is faulty and so their play wont make sense, however there are reasons as to why they make any given action. Once bad players start betting they dont stop, which is why I flat called the flop, however they leak enormous amounts of information with their bet sizes. His bet on the river told me I was 99% good.

Seen as this is 2/4, and you described the villain as not overly bad, i assumed this wouldn't be the case. As you move up limits, you see less and less opponents who don't know when to stop being the aggressor. I still can't figure him for jacks, and i'm not sure him folding to your raise is a 100% sure sign that you had the best hand on the river, although as you say, this situation is VERY marginal.

If Im sure he has jacks then I should raise as I cant lose. I may as well give him a chance to lose money!

This reminds of this Daniel Negreanu article

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/?a_id=15005&m_id=65573

You gain very little by raising on the river. He can't call here with jacks if indeed he is showing this much weakness, but the only the hand that will then call you is one thats been slowplaying you. AA i think is about 50/50 call/fold here.

Doctor Fell

Just read this thread now, and I can see what happened. Have to say I agree with OP, and would have put the other player most likely on 10's or JJ. Therefore I would of definitely value raised, but maybe not as much as 50 - coz if I'm right and they do have 10's or JJ they probably won't call that much with the dangerous looking board.

AmarilloFats

the river cards completes straights and flushes..I don't see much value in a raise..He may call a min raise with JJ.But minraising make jesus LOL, i mean cry...An all-in on the river can look like a desperate bluff with a draw that missed..but not on this board...

mewso

If hes a good player surely it's a possibility a raise on the river might make him drop AA.

Amaru

I went back and changed my post because somehow i made this point in my first paragraph, and then contradicted myself in the second. AA is the only hand that beats him here that folds to a raise. For this raise to be correct, he'd have to be sure his opponent has AA, and even then, him folding isn't a 100% certainty.

AmarilloFats

musician wrote:

If hes a good player surely it's a possibility a raise on the river might make him drop AA.

Absolutely. but as the hand was played I don't think villain has AA.. And I don't think HJ put him on AA and his river raise was not intended to make him fold..His intention was to get a call from a weaker hand..
So an allin in will get AA JJ TT to fold maybe KQ?Dunno
A 3/4 pot raise mite get a call from AA JJ TT any Q
OBv FH will reraise

Doctor Fell

Amaru wrote:

For this raise to be correct, he'd have to be sure his opponent has AA, and even then, him folding isn't a 100% certainty.

But it can also be correct if u put him on jacks, or 10's and value raise it ( make the $15 bet 45 ).

The_Chopper

Hectorjelly wrote:

That seems crazy to me. I am good here nearly all the time. He amost certainly has JJ. He cant have a set. AQ and AA are the only hands im scared of, and AA is unlikely because of the no 3 bet preflop.

I dont think you should ever raise to define someones hand.

This may seem like a very silly comment - but why couldn't the guy have had QQ?
If it had been a cash game and I raised with QQ and someone reraised me I'd probably call, as I was reraised preflop I'd have played the hand very similar after hitting a set and then quads. Infact if he did have quad Q's would he have not extracted the maximum he could have from you?

He bets the flop to as he knows you'll call with a high pocket pair.
He bets the turn slightly higher knowing you've an overpair.
On the river he bets weak hoping you'll come over the top.

As it turns out he probably did have JJ or 1010 - but why couldn't he or a stronger player have QQ in this situation? I am genuinally interested to know your thoughts.

Doctor Fell

The_Chopper wrote:

but why couldn't the guy have had QQ?
.

I'm sure QQ would of bet more than $15 on the river. Especially with the board after making a flush and a straight.

Ste05

The_Chopper wrote:

As it turns out he probably did have JJ or 1010 - but why couldn't he or a stronger player have QQ in this situation? I am genuinally interested to know your thoughts.

I'd say it's simply based on the fact that there's 2 of them out there, and so making it 1,326:1 that he actually has them.

EDIT: Thereby allowing QQ to be discounted.

The_Chopper

Ste05 wrote:

I'd say it's simply based on the fact that there's 2 of them out there, and so making it 1,326:1 that he actually has them.

EDIT: Thereby allowing QQ to be discounted.

Mathamatically I know it's unlikely, but not impossible. I've often had quads and played very similar to this is a heads up situation, when the other guy has had position on me. I've bet week throughout opening the door for his to come over the top - then BINGO

kencleary

Hectorjelly wrote:

I thought it was an interesting situation, about as marginal a situation as its possible to get. I did as Ken suggested and made it 50 more - he folded. I think an all in wouild of been better as it looks like a desperation all in bluff rather than a bet for value; allthough in this case I guess it wouldnt of made a difference.

Why do you think it was marginal? Would you seriously consider a flat call on the River? Or does it refer simply to the amount of the raise?

Hectorjelly

The_Chopper wrote:

As it turns out he probably did have JJ or 1010 - but why couldn't he or a stronger player have QQ in this situation? I am genuinally interested to know your thoughts.

On the flop Ithought QQQ was a definite possibility, but by the river I thought it was very unlikely. A good player might be capable of a weak lead on the river with Quads but not this guy.

Marq

I think AQ/KQ are part of his range. I lean towards flat calling simply because although I think you are ahead, there are not many hands in your opponents range that can call a river raise and are losing.

Having said that he screams weakness all the way through the hand. If you think he's the sort of player that calls a raise with jacks when all draws hit on the river, it may be a profitable play.