Variables associated with playing hands! (merged)

nikorami

Thanks for the welcome BigDragon.

I was asked to start a thread on a topic I commented about on the play of a certain hand. For this thread, nothing matters except the concept.

At one point I could not get anywhere in tournaments(MTT). I was dead money. I learned this concept...my game went through the roof. Instantly...I mean the next night.

The concept is: One of the most common key to success is the elimination of the variables. To explain it further and simpler...If you stand against a wall and have 20 guys throw a ball at you from 20 different directions, what are the chances you'll get hit? Sounds like Stats and Probabilities? Well part, but also it is part theory. Even if you think you are a "Statistical favorite" you still need to think beyond that to the possible outcomes and other vairables affecting your play.

The best way to get a feel for this is to play hands by yourself...maybe 6 to seven or even more.

Now, some may laugh or think this doesn't make much sense...so I am going to stop here. If you are willing to try, I will post more. If you are not willing to try...please don't respond. I am not going to argue my point, only offer it.

I went from not ever making money to making over $90k in 2005, and thats not counting the trips and other stuff I won which was part of the packages.

Gholimoli

all ears...

BigDragon

Your welcome!

Sent you a PM.

Ste05

enough teasing niko, lets get down to the hard core action ,

I'm intrigued...

accensi0n

secret to winning please....

ntlbell

I'm sitting here playing with myself like you asked, now come on...stop teasing me

Ste05

ntlbell wrote:

I'm sitting here playing with myself like you asked, now come on...stop teasing me

LOL!!! Don't waste all your energy on the foreplay, save a little for the main course...

Enough now, I think :mad: .... Looking forward to hearing more nikorami....

5starpool

Let me guess. It's all contained in your book, at a reasonable $29.95 from Amazon.com????

I'm interested to learn why my profits have been reasonable in MTT's, not astronomical....

nikorami

Okay, If you igested some of the thoughts yesterday...then now move on to thinking about the next pieces. If the same 20 guys now throw a ball at you from the same exact spot(as opposed to from different as previously), what is the hit rate? How about if 10 guys each throw 2 balls from the same spot? How about just 1 guy throwing all 20 balls? Just have a think about all the variables.

The point I am trying to get across in the examples is that there are a lot of different outcomes because of different variables. Not just the "Odds" or "Stats".

These additional variables influence the outcome and can change the "Stats".

OK..a little poker(not much, but a little)...Your heads up against someone, your opponent has a really bad headache, is he more likely to shove is chips in even though he is "Statistically" behind?

I'll do part three a little later...if anyone is still listening.

nikorami

..Part 2 on a new thread..if anyone is still listening!

nikorami

I only offer my opinion and learnings. I offer them to provoke thought. Some may feel that it is of value others may dismiss it. I learned a long time ago, to listen, learn, implement and fail before I dismiss. As I briefly commented, my results have made me accept certain things. I hope to learn more from others...and I do...with the goal of continued success.

Norwich Fan Rob

how on earth do u know if you opponent has a headache or not, look for a tell of some adadin sticking out of his pocket? (that wont work online)

nikorami

type in chat to his buddy that he has had a terrible headache for the last 30minutes. Not the point though. Thanks Rob. Have a great day.:)

Lafortezza

Part ones and two merged. The poker forum is crazy busy these days, so there's no need to have Parts 1 through 50 taking up a few pages.

Please continue to post the later parts in this thread nikorami.
And consider just posting all your advice/knowledge in full instead of in dribs and drabs it might get an interesting discussion going if people have all the facts/theorys.

Ste05

Ye, that could be a good idea, I must say I'm kinda lost TBH .....

MadsL

And consider just posting all your advice/knowledge in full instead of in dribs and drabs it might get an interesting discussion going if people have all the facts/theorys.

feels more Ninja though...I like it.

Doctor Fell

nikorami wrote:

...If you stand against a wall and have 20 guys throw a ball at you from 20 different directions, what are the chances you'll get hit? Sounds like Stats and Probabilities? Well part, but also it is part theory.

Yes, but what type of ball?? Small golf balls or large football like balls? I think you'll find it's a variable u haven't considered in this equation....

nikorami wrote:

Even if you think you are a "Statistical favorite" you still need to think beyond that to the possible outcomes and other vairables affecting your play.

But seriously, I do think the above is a very good observation. Too many players just consider for example the "stats" aspect of a hand - e.g "I'm getting 2 to 1, I have to call" or some such nonsense without considering anything else.

Really is a bit ninja alright

nikorami

Please don't question the play and eventual outcome..just the events and variables.

The guy made a preflop raise in mid pos. with 99. He got called by the BB, who was "hesitant", but called. Flop came 824 with two spades. The guy led out 1000(about half pot) the other guy came over the top, was called and lost to K5 of spades when the flush came.

After the guy called preflop, what hands could he have had? Well, one variable was that he was in the BB and only had to call 700 more into a 1450 pot(i believe my math is right) as opposed to calling 1000 by the other players. The other variable, he was "hesitant". Chip stacks(another Variable)? I'm sure there were other variables associated(how he was playing previously?, etc.).

The flop now comes and the guy bets. His actions have gone from hesitancy to confidence/aggression/etc. Coming over the top is the "right" thing to do: Based on the premise of getting your chips in when your ahead. But how far ahead were you? Did you take into consideration the variables we previously saw? The answer was no....most of the respondants simply said, you were ahead, or he "could" have had A8. Only a few variables were taken into consideration before making the raise. "Stats" wise, how far ahead are you if the guy has J10 of spades? Thats a hand that a "hesitant" person might have called with.

Doctor Fell

nikorami wrote:

"Stats" wise, how far ahead are you if the guy has J10 of spades? Thats a hand that a "hesitant" person might have called with.

I agree, but my point was (in the original thread) that the raise is correct because you're trying to make him fold his hand, considering that you're not that much of a favourite.

Waylander

nikorami wrote:

The flop now comes and the guy bets. His actions have gone from hesitancy to confidence/aggression/etc. Coming over the top is the "right" thing to do: Based on the premise of getting your chips in when your ahead. But how far ahead were you? Did you take into consideration the variables we previously saw? The answer was no....most of the respondants simply said, you were ahead, or he "could" have had A8. Only a few variables were taken into consideration before making the raise. "Stats" wise, how far ahead are you if the guy has J10 of spades? Thats a hand that a "hesitant" person might have called with.

I do not think a bet of half the pot into a preflop raiser is really a move of aggression, I think it is a blocking bet, trying to see the next card for a price that has value, hence I thought coming over the top to take that value away was a good idea.

nikorami

Don't dwell on the the play.

I'll step back from poker again. I enjoy Roulette occasionally while I am there. The odds/stats on Roulette are fixed.

On a trip to Vegas it was noticed that one particular dealer kept on spinning numbers in sections. The reason was that this dealers actions were smooth and fluent. The same spin speed, the same toss of the ball, the same time between spins. Each new visit to the table would require only a few minutes to identify the section. A few chips on the numbers in that section and the money began flowing.

A lot of the variables associated with a spin had been eliminated, now being up against the fixed odds and a fixed spin. As opposed to other dealers who had a huge amount of variability in what they were doing at the table.

If you all don't think my threads make sense or value added...please let me know today. I'll stop for today and stop permanently based on feedback. I believe in my thoughts and have seen results. Have a good day!

Ste05

Is there a better example than this to illustrate your point Niko??

Without analysing the play, which has been done, there's nothing really you can say here, IMHO, the cards, flop and chip stacks surely decided the outcome of this hand. As you say the hesistancy of the preflop call, and the newly found confidence, which TBH, this 1,000 bet doesn't really say to me (had he raised All-in then I'd take that as confidence), but this measly little bet on a harmless looking board, into the pre-flop raiser is surely anything but confident.

IMHO this hesistance pre-flop would make me more inclined to raise. What hand was he thinking about, not a higher pair, certainly not rags (so he doesn't have two pair), leaving the hesistance on two 10+ cards, Axs or (as it turned out, but much less likely Kxs), or thinking about a stop and go play to defend his BB, (as it turned out, this guy probably had no idea what a stop and go was, but had he been a solid player, could be another thing to consider). Now based on this, if you then go over the top, you are only really worried about Ax suited in spades, in which you are about 50:50, everything else that myself personally would put him on, has you as a clear favourite and ahead.

Norwich Fan Rob

i still havent seen anything thats turned u from a loser into a 90k a year winner overnight, gives us some more of this and we can evaluate further.

Waylander

You used a specific example, and explained why you disagreed with a post of mine. That is fine I have no problem with that, but I am just explaining what my thought process was for the advice I had given out. I am merely working within the same exammple that you used.

Norwich Fan Rob

back to the K5 hand and very often in this case someone might call a bit more than they should to defend their BB, if this was me and the OP had been raising a fair bit, i would call and lead on a low flop, putting the raiser on 2 high cards, a stop and go would also work here as suggested on any board with no ace, he coulda had something like 66, 55 or the like, or 8x as suggested, many of these hands he may "think" was ahead on the flop, but OPs re raise all in would result in a quick fold in 75%+ cases imo........

Doctor Fell

It seems to me Nikorami that you are very aware and observant of what is going on around you while you're gambling. I might be mistaken, but isn't this what u are alluding to in your advice?? Simply to be aware of everything (opponents headache, smoothness of the roluette dealer etc)? All this extra information is bound to be useful if u can process it and use it to your own ends, so in that respect I agree with you. Consider all the variables man!!:D

Doctor Fell

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

back to the K5 hand

a stop and go would also work here as suggested on any board with no ace, he coulda had something like 66, 55 or the like, or 8x as suggested, many of these hands he may "think" was ahead on the flop, but OPs re raise all in would result in a quick fold in 75%+ cases imo........

I don't agree with the stop and go - the pot is already big enough to try and take down with a raise. If he folds 75% like u say, that's great!
Also, why give him a free card to do you in a big pot? You're not that much of a favourite.

Ste05

I was referring to a stop and go by the BB not the 99....

Norwich Fan Rob

a stop and go can only be done by the first to act. This play is where u consider a raiser to be on either a steal, or 2 high cards, and if the flop comes lowish, u just bet out, hoping to take it down there and then (in some cases on a stop and go, the fact to act will just bet out regardless, often all in, this can be an effective way of building a stack with decent sized blinds in an MTT)

AmarilloFats

How about post some of your hand histores Niko!! And step by step analysis thru the hands!!!!!!!!!!!

Gholimoli

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

a stop and go can only be done by the first to act. This play is where u consider a raiser to be on either a steal, or 2 high cards, and if the flop comes lowish, u just bet out, hoping to take it down there and then (in some cases on a stop and go, the fact to act will just bet out regardless, often all in, this can be an effective way of building a stack with decent sized blinds in an MTT)

the stop&go does only work when your acting first post flop ,but your not looking for a lowish flop ,or a flop with out aces.
the point of stop&go is this IMO:
your on the BB with 77
button makes it 4BB ,you have 10BB or something around that,and you feel a reriase all in preflop is not enough to make him fold but a push after the flop could.
so in that hope your ready to push any flop even with an A in it.
consider the button has TT and he correctly makes it 4BB.would he fold to a push from you if you onyl have 10BB preflop?
how about after a call from you and a push in to a flop of A K x or K Q x ???
the point is not to wait for a none high card flop,as this may be exactly what villian is looking for.the point is to push any flop hoping he will fold something like his TT against your 77.the reason why this works is simply that most flops miss most hands and that is the concept your trying to exploit.
also the main thing to consider here is that you have to push,dont try this play with a raise,becuase if you have more in your stack and there can be more rounds of betting,then that opens the alot of doors for a alot of other plays.

Ste05

The basic idea is OK, Gholimoli, but instead of trying to point out any flaws, I think it's probably better to let Greg (Fossilman) Raymer....

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=184212&page=&view=&sb=5&o=&vc=1

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

The basic idea is OK, Gholimoli, but instead of trying to point out any flaws, I think it's probably better to let Greg (Fossilman) Raymer....

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=184212&page=&view=&sb=5&o=&vc=1

the point of posting here or having a discussion about something is to point out flaws Ste05 .flaws in ones thinkin or logic that makes them make wrong choices.
as for posting a link to that,i dont keep track of links and hence cant post a link to every thing i read elsewhere.

Ste05

Gholimoli wrote:

the point of posting here or having a discussion about something is to point out flaws Ste05 .flaws in ones thinkin or logic that makes them make wrong choices.
as for posting a link to that,i dont keep track of links and hence cant post a link to every thing i read elsewhere.

Don't get what you mean here?? Have I offended you in some way??

I posted that link as an aide to all the newbies that are around lately, so they can hear about the stop and go from Greg Raymer, and not some re-hashed attempt by me.

As to keeping track of links, it's not that difficult if you know what you're looking for to go and grab them quickly, as I did here.....

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

Don't get what you mean here?? Have I offended you in some way??

I posted that link as an aide to all the newbies that are around lately, so they can hear about the stop and go from Greg Raymer, and not some re-hashed attempt by me.

As to keeping track of links, it's not that difficult if you know what you're looking for to go and grab them quickly, as I did here.....

you asked me not to point out flaws in peoples post and i said the idea behind posting and having a discussion about something is so that others can infact point out the flaws in ones logic and way of thinking .

Ste05

I was actually talking about flaws in your post on top of the other stop and go flaws in this thread....

fuzzbox

Doctor Fell wrote:

I don't agree with the stop and go - the pot is already big enough to try and take down with a raise. If he folds 75% like u say, that's great!
Also, why give him a free card to do you in a big pot? You're not that much of a favourite.

What if I asked you - "why make him fold a hand like 77 when you might get the rest of his chips on the turn if it blanks, you are a HUGE favourite" ?

cardshark202

nikorami wrote:

If you all don't think my threads make sense or value added...please let me know today. I'll stop for today and stop permanently based on feedback. I believe in my thoughts and have seen results. Have a good day!

:mad: Wtf dude! Why don't you write it all up in one post or something and let people decide on your ideas then. This fcuking piece by piece bollox is more annoying than enlightening. If you have something interesting to share then share it intead of messing with peoples heads. So far all you've done is spew waffle. There may be a point to it but i seriously think you'd be better posting your ideas all at once. With all this build up I'm expecting you turn every boardster into a top tournament player:rolleyes: .

MadsL

Wtf dude! Why don't you write it all up in one post or something and let people decide on your ideas then. This fcuking piece by piece bollox is more annoying than enlightening. If you have something interesting to share then share it intead of messing with peoples heads. So far all you've done is spew waffle. There may be a point to it but i seriously think you'd be better posting your ideas all at once. With all this build up I'm expecting you turn every boardster into a top tournament player

Hmmm, someone's on tilt. Personally, I'm enjoying it. Feels like a speechplay tactic...:D

Tell us more honorable poker sensei!

cardshark202

MadsL wrote:

Hmmm, someone's on tilt. Personally, I'm enjoying it. Feels like a speechplay tactic...:D

Tell us more honorable poker sensei!

Lol I just hate being strung along and then finding out the 'secret' is nothing new.

a-k-47

Wtf dude! Why don't you write it all up in one post or something and let people decide on your ideas then. This fcuking piece by piece bollox is more annoying than enlightening. If you have something interesting to share then share it intead of messing with peoples heads. So far all you've done is spew waffle. There may be a point to it but i seriously think you'd be better posting your ideas all at once. With all this build up I'm expecting you turn every boardster into a top tournament player .

Patience young jedi!

@niko, i have played 10 handed cards by MYSELF lol to see what some of the hands are like and then outcome would be. but i do not see how this method of learning out to be a better player relates to being aware of the ppl around you being hesitant etc. ??????? plz post one post on how dragons advice improved your live game and prob more importantly on the forum ONLINE poker. thanks. btw the 90k profit ?

5starpool

I'm with Cardshark on this one. The variable we are most concerned with here is how big is x? x being the number of posts it takes you to reveal your 'theory'.

I will be amazed if this is not just a 'make sure all factors are evaluated before making your decision' piece (however you dress it up), and while this revelation may have dramatically improved your game, is nothing new to the majority here.

I (and the rest of the esteemed posters here) get your point that you cannot simply go based on pot odds, there are more things in play. If this is all you are trying to say then please say it so that I can stop reading this thread, waiting for the new poker thinking that will revolutionise my game.

And well done on the 90k profit. That would revolutionise my game....

accensi0n

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0452281261/qid%3D1137094831/026-5168300-4878846

feel the flow.