Reverse Bet Sizing ~ Or when Bet Sizing doesn't matter...Am I way off here?

Iago

Ok, so I’m not the world’s greatest poker player (yet) and far more proficient players than me have written extensively on bet sizing and what you are looking to achieve. Our own Hectorjelly wrote a very good article on the subject for Poker Player Ireland a couple of months ago, that article dealt mostly with cash games and the fundamentals behind what your bet means.

There are a number of objectives behind making a raise, take the pot then and there, build the pot to take it down at a later point, isolate an opponent, entice a re-raise or maybe simply confuse your opponents. I try to utilise the same mentality I use when taking penalties in a football match, decide what I’m doing and why and hold to that for the duration of the hand. Now I get all this, but there are times when it just doesn’t fit with the game you’re playing, i.e. it doesn’t seem to work with STTs with between 9-7 players where the blind levels are less than 15% of the stack size involved.

Iago wrote:

Taking an example, it’s a 9 player STT, blind levels are 30/60 and all stacks are within 10% of the starting 2K.

You’re dealt QQ in UTG+1, UTG limps in front of you what do you do?

What are you aiming for? You’d like to get value from your hand so you don’t want to force everyone out of the pot. Standard raise here might be 3*BB to 240 in total, problem is that this raise isn’t significant enough to take MP1 off Ax or MP2 off JTs, now when it gets round to the button who is holding KTs they have reasonable odds to call and the SB and BB are almost priced in on any two cards. If you lucky one of the poor players will push with Ax or a low PP or even KTs (happens more often than you’d think) and then you get the position you want to be in. For the purpose of this example, lets just say they all call…an altogether too familiar scenario in STTs at the lower levels.

Suddenly you’re in a multiway pot with QQ and barring a Q on the flop you’re going to find it difficult to take the hand down at that point. Even a continuation bet fails to work because with a pot holding 1440, and your stack only having 1800 left any reasonable continuation bet, say ½ pot or so pretty much commits you if a raise comes in. You have no idea what your opponents are calling with and if the flop holds an A, K or a pair you’re almost as well throwing your hand away.

So to avoid this you raise to 5*BB to 360, it’s folded all the way around and you take a small pot for your premium hand. If you just limp you’re hoping for a raise later on and if it doesn’t come then you’ve no idea where you stand regardless of what flop comes down, again you find yourself in a multiway pot and will probably have to fold to a reasonable bet

Even if your position improves and say you’re dealt QQ one off the button, 3 limpers before you, again you raise by 5*BBs to 360. So one of the 5 players who still have cards have to call 300 to win 630, if one of the blinds or an early limper calls this bet, one (or both) of the late limpers almost has to call with any two cards. Again here, even on a low flop you could be in a huge amount of trouble. A continuation bet again commits you to a raise, and if there is a bet in front of you it is a hard decision to call.

My observation has been that with the poor quality of players in STTs, you are almost better limping preflop regardless of hand strength or position for the first 3-4 levels and only betting heavily when you hit a large part of the flop, i.e. 2 pair or better post-flop. Therefore taking full advantage of the poor quality of players who will happily call in that spot with a flush draw or TPTK or a pair in the hole.

Am I completely wide of the mark here? I’ve been reviewing my results and I seem to get outdrawn a lot in these types of hands after being miles ahead post flop, this is unfortunately a necessary evil as part of this strategy, but is the strategy flawed in the first place? I have a lot of 8th and 9th placed finishes in STTs and the vast majority of them (65%+) are hands where I was outdrawn after all the chips going in post flop where I was a massive favourite.

Any thoughts on this observation?

Imposter

If you find people aren't folding, i'd notch it up another 1 or 2 BB's to try and have only one or max 2 callers. Look to get it all in automatically on flop (or at least on low flops). Either you have a large stack or you have saved time in exiting early and can play another game.

I wouldn't go with the limping thing as you've got to make use of big hands when you get them. Limping with QQ early in a game is asking for trouble. as the blinds get bigger it may become an option.

Rodge

My observation has been that with the poor quality of players in STTs, you are almost better limping preflop regardless of hand strength or position for the first 3-4 levels and only betting heavily when you hit a large part of the flop, i.e. 2 pair or better post-flop. Therefore taking full advantage of the poor quality of players who will happily call in that spot with a flush draw or TPTK or a pair in the hole.

When the early levels are being played very passively, yes I would agree with a lot of this.

I play a similar style to this in the early levels (up to the start of level 3). The only difference is the regardless of hand strength bit, group 1 premium hands I would play a lot more aggressively especially if there are limpers and I am button, SB or BB. I am definitely all in, hoping there is someone trying to see a flop with QQ, JJ, 1010, AQ or even AK. I'm likely to get a call here by hands that I have dominated and less likely to get called by suited connectors and other drawing hands. I think this is the only "safe" way to play AA and KK early doors in an STT.

If I have a premium hand UTG or early position then I am putting in an overraise. I know the blinds are meaningless at this stage but staying in the tournament is my main priority.

Also when I do see a flop I'm not sure I would play 2 pair as strongly as you suggest. Top two pair, I might, depending on the action and draws on the flop but anything less and I dont want to risk too much. I know that 99% of the time you want to be called by flush draws but early on I think you're much better off if you can avoid them as you are limiting your exposure to potentially crippling hands.

The first few levels are all about survival for me until the blinds are big enough to mean something. Strategy changes completely and chip accumulation becomes the primary goal after level 3 for me.

jem

i am always of the opinion that it is better to take a small pot preflop than lose a big pot after it.
I therefore always(almost always) bet strongly to win pot preflop with a good hand.

Amaru

I don't like this, and i know because i spent a good portion of last month playing like this. You HAVE to raise preflop, if only to make your opponents define their hands. It also helps to build the pot, which means if you win just one multiway pot, you're more than likely going to be somewhere above your starting stack. You can't let people limp in against your premium hands, because they'll either outdraw you in a big pot, or fold in a small one. Neither of these is ideal for premium hands, which as their name suggests, are at a premium, so you should definitely be getting maximum value from them while you can.

Iago

Imposter wrote:

I wouldn't go with the limping thing as you've got to make use of big hands when you get them. Limping with QQ early in a game is asking for trouble. as the blinds get bigger it may become an option.

Amaru wrote:

don't like this, and i know because i spent a good portion of last month playing like this. You HAVE to raise preflop, if only to make your opponents define their hands

Rodge wrote:

Also when I do see a flop I'm not sure I would play 2 pair as strongly as you suggest. Top two pair, I might, depending on the action and draws on the flop but anything less and I dont want to risk too much. I know that 99% of the time you want to be called by flush draws but early on I think you're much better off if you can avoid them as you are limiting your exposure to potentially crippling hands.

The first few levels are all about survival for me until the blinds are big enough to mean something. Strategy changes completely and chip accumulation becomes the primary goal after level 3 for me.

I agree with everything being said here, the problem is that the standard of player you're playing against makes putting them on a hand difficult at best. I've listed 3 real life examples below, what would you have done differently here (yes I know these are bad beats, but the purpose of the thread is to point out the specific examples I'm talking about)

These are all at the $25 STT level 9-Handed


Hand 1

You've got KK on the button, blinds are 20/40, full table and there are 4 limpers into the pot. Raise to 300, BB calls, 2 limpers call.

Flop comes down J 8 5 rainbow. all check, you bet 400, folded to BB who goes all-in ..

I called, BB turned over J8o and won with two pair, can someone explain how this call was justified with that kind of raise and two players to act after him?

Hand 2

You've got AcAs UTG, blinds are 50/100, 7 players left, all around the same stack size, you raise to 400 and get 3 callers.

Flop comes down K T 9 with 2 hearts, you bet 600 and get raised all-in by the last caller...

I called here again, thinking that he may have a pair and possibly a flush draw. He turned over Q6h and hit his flush on the turn, I'm not going to even try and understand what he was doing here.

Hand 3

You've got AKs in MP, blinds are 30/60, full table, 2 limpers before you, so you raise to 360, both limpers call.

Flop comes down K 9 2 rainbow, first limper bets 300, second limper folds, what do you do?

I raised to 800, and he pushed. I called and he turned over Q9s, Q on the river won the hand for him, another strange call

These are three examples but if you want I can post up dozens of HHs where something similar has happened in the early stages of a tournament. So raising to find out the strength of your opponents hand won't always have the desired result, you're counting on your opponent having a basic understanding of hand strength and odds before calling.

It seems to me that at the $25 level that understanding is not there with the vast majority of players, and my query/question/confusion is around how best to play when you're at a table full of these players.

I hate limping regardless of what hand I'm holding, but I'm losing far too much money on premium hands being called down by rubbish. This may well be variance and %'s but these odds are calculated by looking at a given range of hands. When you're playing against players who call 6*BB raises with any two cards that goes out the window to a certain degree.

Amaru

You must really be running bad to be thinking like this!:D

Look at the hands in question.

First hand, he defends his BB, but you're probably losing your shirt on this one whether you raise or not. At least you're seeing that he does defend his BB, if thats worth anything to you.

2nd and 3rd hands. These are just bad beats. You got your money is an huge favourite twice, and they happened to outdraw you. In the long term, these people are giving away their money.

What you're proposing is becoming trigger shy because idiots want to try get lucky. You and I both know thats only going to lose you money.

If I was to say something, its that i feel you're raising too much. You're tying yourself to your big hands, and practically telling everybody that you have a big hand and will probably put all your money in with it. Raise with them, but don't fall in love with them.

Rodge

Hand one with all the limpers, an all in from you would have more than likely taken the limpers money. I know it would only be 220 chips but it would have increased your stack size by ~10%

Hand two and three would have annoyed me a lot. I dont think you can play these much differently. Maybe preflop going up to 500 instead of 400 and 360 might have done the job, hard to say though.

What you're proposing is becoming trigger shy because idiots want to try get lucky. You and I both know thats only going to lose you money.

I dont think this is the proposition at all. The proposition is to play it extremely cagey in the first few rounds. EG If you know your AA/KK/QQ is going to get three+ callers then you have to know that your hand does not perform well in a multiway pot.

When the blinds get good you will open up and take advantage of your TAG image. I dont think its trigger shy, i think its smart play.

Amaru

He's advocating limping in the first few rounds with premium hands. I hate this, for the simple fact that you are passing up a large edge early on in an STT, something which would plain stupid. Accumumalating an edge early significantly increases your chances of winning. Besides that, this means that he's probably going to have to fold premium pairs a good lot of the time, because a scary flop with 4 players is about as bad as it gets. Also, whats TAG about limping? Thats just weak tight.

EDIT: Also, the check raise all in at any level i've played up to VC ALWAYS means better than TPTK. Your lone pair is no good here probably 99% of the time.

Gholimoli

Imposter wrote:

If you find people aren't folding, i'd notch it up another 1 or 2 BB's to try and have only one or max 2 callers. Look to get it all in automatically on flop (or at least on low flops). Either you have a large stack or you have saved time in exiting early and can play another game.

I wouldn't go with the limping thing as you've got to make use of big hands when you get them. Limping with QQ early in a game is asking for trouble. as the blinds get bigger it may become an option.

i dont think this is right at all.
limping with QQ is ok(if at all) early in the game where the blinds are small and are not really worth much compare to your stack.
you can limp see a flop and try to take it from there.
later on when the blinds are higher then its not an option at all seen as the blinds are worth taking.
giving the SB or the BB a cheap flop when the blinds are worth taking is generally bad play

Imposter

Gholimoli wrote:

limping with QQ is ok(if at all) early in the game where the blinds are small and are not really worth much compare to your stack.
you can limp see a flop and try to take it from there.
later on when the blinds are higher then its not an option at all seen as the blinds are worth taking.
giving the SB or the BB a cheap flop when the blinds are worth taking is generally bad play

Limping and waiting for a flop with any decent hand early on is asking for trouble. That's what gets people outdrawn when people call with crap. Granted you can fold to an overcard easier but that opens up possibilities for you to be bluffed out of pots. Ideally with a hand like qq you want 1 or 2 callers. If an overcard falls you've got tough decisions to make. If not quite often a continuation bet will take it but is not you need to analyse both the board and your opponents tendancies. If you only get the blinds and no callers then that's ok too as at least you're still in the tournament and you're no worse off (more or less) than limping and folding.

Late in tournaments there are many times when limping with a big hand makes sense. You do it generally because you expect that this is the way to get more money out of opponents. Late on you also need to vary your play with all hands as if you become too predictable it's easy to play against you. At the start of a tournament there's less need to vary things and playing by the book is almost always the thing to do. The only time i'd not do that is if I knew one or more of my opponents quite well and knew that he thought he knew my style.