Gamble Here? (HH included)

cardshark202

This is the first hand of a $20 heads up match on stars. No info on villian as I haven't played against him before.

PokerStars Game #3582034330: Tournament #17778927, Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2006/01/09 - 11:58:54 (ET)
Table '17778927 1' One on One Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Villian (1500 in chips) 
Seat 2: Hero (1500 in chips) 
Villian: posts small blind 10
Hero: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [3d 7d]
Villian: calls 10
Hero: checks 
*** FLOP *** [6d Js 5d]
Hero: bets 40
Villian: raises 1440 to 1480 and is all-in
Hero?

handsfree

no villian seems to be a muppet and you'll catch him out with something better than a 7 high later. the guy probably has jack **** but your not getting the odds to call

Amaru

It's up to you. Its pretty much a coinflip here, and i'm not sure what kind of hand pushes on that board into an unraised pot. There's really no strategy to discuss here, it comes down to whether you want to take what is probably a 50/50.

RoundTower

Fold. Unless you think hitting your 3 or your 7 might be good you are less than 50-50 here and you need to be very close to that to call.

cardshark202

If he's pushing with air I'm over a 60% favourite, if he's pushing with middle or bottom pair i'm about a 55% favourite, if he's pushing with top pair im a slight dog (about 47%) and if he's pushing with a bigger flush draw i'm a big dog (~ 30%) so I don't think its quite as clear a fold as has been suggested

Norwich Fan Rob

your playing a heads up, your opponent is a nutter, who over bets crazily it seems, he will be a walk in the park to beat, probably somewhere b4 the end of level 2, why take a gamble here........

El Stuntman

chortle to yourself like a megalomaniac (think Dr. Evil here) and start counting the chips..then FOLD

hit him next hand or whenever

Amaru

I actually really hoped you called, because i want to know what he had.

ianmc38

Fold. If you had the suited hi-lo straight flush draw then it would be an instant call for me, but this is an instant fold, as a player who makes ridiculous overbets like that is usally very poor in quality and will be easily taken out via his large overbets.

RoundTower

FWIW I think your opponent played his hand extremely well.

cardshark202

Well if he put me on straight flush draw then it was indeed a good bet i guess as any less would have priced me in. It made me think my 7 was good too which it wasn't and I ended up making a bad call and he had J5 for top and bottom. I've since realised it was a bad call even if he only had a 6 or a 5 because the edge i'm getting in this hand is far less than my success rate in these heads up matches. Here is the full HH for those who are interested:

PokerStars Game #3582034330: Tournament #17778927, Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2006/01/09 - 11:58:54 (ET)
Table '17778927 1' One on One Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Villian (1500 in chips) 
Seat 2: Hero (1500 in chips) 
Villian: posts small blind 10
Hero: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [3d 7d]
Villian: calls 10
Hero: checks 
*** FLOP *** [6d Js 5d]
Hero: bets 40
Villian: raises 1440 to 1480 and is all-in
Hero: calls 1440 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [6d Js 5d] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [6d Js 5d 6h] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [3d 7d] (a pair of Sixes)
Villian: shows [Jd 5s] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
Villian collected 3000 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3000 | Rake 0 
Board [6d Js 5d 6h As]
Seat 1: Villian (button) (small blind) showed [Jd 5s] and won (3000) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Seat 2: Hero (big blind) showed [3d 7d] and lost with a pair of Sixes

RoundTower

cardshark202 wrote:

I've since realised it was a bad call even if he only had a 6 or a 5 because the edge i'm getting in this hand is far less than my success rate in these heads up matches. Here is the full HH for those who are interested:

That doesn't matter here, since if you lose the hand you can start another headsup match straight away. In fact if you never thought like this you would very rarely be making a mistake.

cardshark202

RoundTower wrote:

That doesn't matter here, since if you lose the hand you can start another headsup match straight away. In fact if you never thought like this you would very rarely be making a mistake.

Yeah that's true but I never think like that in all honesty I just can never articulate my thoughts very well when it comes to posting on a forum.:o

I don't think there's much point in me trying to argue my point until I've thought it through more. :v: Thanks for the feedback anyway.