Ice Cold in Alex

Iago

It's official ...I'm running cold. In fact if I was running any colder I'd be in contention for the Irish bobsled team in the next Olympics.

In my last 500 STTs I've annihilated my ITM rate, including runs of 7,8,10,11 STTs out of the money in a row. My best ITM in a row is 7 and my ROI has dropped from a relatively healthy 20% to a measly 12%.

My actual ROI for my last 500 STTs is -3% and most of the time I'm not even getting close. My last 10 STTs have finished as below

8th, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 9th, 5th, 3rd, 8th

It's been a combination of some crazy hands, a copious amount of tilt induced bad play and the usual sprinkling of muppets hitting their 1 and 2 outers that have caused this problem. I don't think I'm playing much differently and I haven't moved up a level so I'm not sure what the problem is.

My theory is that it's probably just variance and eventually the cards will come back in my favour again. The players at the $25-$50 STTs seem to be getting worse and worse though, I've lost count of the times I've been miles ahead and been called down by a rubbish hand that went on to hit.

Anyway this isn't a moan post, just a frank assesment of how I've been running in recent times. I'm taking an enforced break of a couple of weeks so hopefully I'll come back refreshed and back on top of my game.

Would love to know what kind of runs other posters have been on recently (good or bad) there was a thread on 2+2 where posters where contributing their December results and I thought it made interesting reading, so if anyone wants to take the plunge feel free to reply!

shaydy

I'm not sure if its the new year and everyone has made a new years resolution to lose as little money as possible but I just cant seem to get paid off with any hands I hit. So progress is slow and I mean VERY SLOW with any money i'm making coming from small bluffs here and there. I can't really complain as I haven't lost money but the temptation to gamble has been tugging my fingers over to the all in button but up to now i've controlled it. Hopefully things will pick up but the last 3 or 4 sessions of 3 to 4 hours have felt like an eternity.

I suppose just one of those weeks.

Stay positive!;)
Shay

Amaru

Are you doing anything to look at if you have any leaks in your game?

Lafortezza

A thread on 2+2 about what types of poker have the highest variance.

some guy on 2+2 wrote:

Multi-Table Tournaments
Shorthanded Limit/HU limit HE(Profitable but beastly swings)
Single-Table tournaments (Roommate went through a 800 tournament downswing [He's 6th on the leaderboard and climbing]
NL shorthanded
*Limit full ring and NL full ring are completely dependent on playstyles. A TAG [set farmer] in NL full ring will have less variance than a limit full ring, but a winning NL LAG will have more variance than a winning limit player. Theoretically these are your lowest variance HE games.

This seems to be the consensus.

CoD

To try and stop the swings of cash games, i decided to start the year with a small bankroll and just play STTs to see how it goes.
Playing mainly $50 9 mans, and $50 1x1s, with a few $25's.

Aiming to make $200 profit per week, to break the $10k yr barrier.
1st week had $405 profit without playing much, and already in 1.5 days i'm on $250 for this week.

i'm loving the STTs, finding the standard to be awful.
The heads up games are the best. Played 13, won 11. The 2 i lost were where i had some guy down to 500 and he hit a 3 outer, then a 4 outer against me, to get level again then he beat me ok then. The other was 6 hands in, all in preflop, AA vs 99. He hit a 9 on river.
I havnt really experianced any variance yet, but hopefully with the heads up games, i'll be able to balance it out.

staringelf

i know just how you feel Iago. i hit a patch like yours in July/first half of August last year.
what's odd is that at the time i felt i was playing some of my best poker. it was a combination of being card dead, not getting paid on big hands and a seemingly endless amount of outdraws when i was miles ahead.
my last 200 STT games (since Jan 1st to be exact) have been the worst i've ever seen. i've lost a quarter of my whole bankroll in just over a week. monster hands getting rivered seemingly every game. at one point it was so unbelievable it was almost funny (in a way that when you stop laughing you just want to hide in a corner and cry :rolleyes: ), finishing on the bubble 7 times in a row (that hurts) when EVERY single time i was making the correct plays, going in with best and getting knocked out. it hurts.

there's nothing you can do about it but continue playing your best - making every decision the right one and knowing it will turn around. variance runs in cycles - if it was win 2 then lose 1, win 2 the lose 1, win 2 then lose 1, etc....it would be easy.....but it doesn't work like that over the long run.

once you're happy with your play, i'd just keep ploughing thru it. although you did mention some tilt induced bad play - you have to nip that in the bud right away - that'll ruin you eventually if you don't. some time off is a good idea too. but trust me, we all go through it. i'm hopefully coming out of it now (my last 2 days have been +$). apart from the time off thing you mentioned yourself i'll give you a couple of suggestions:

1. turn the chat off and don't reply to any bad outdraws or anything at all. concentrate on your game. you're there to make money. not to socialise. there is absolutely no advantage to having it on - it can only distract you or put you on tilt.

2. take a bit of time before every decision you make and ask yourself that, regardles of the outcome, are you happy you made the right decision. unless you have AA preflop when someone pushes in front of you you should take your time - it costs you nothing to use your allocated time - USE IT - and ignore other players bitching about hurrying up.

3. move down in limits if your bankroll tells you do. leave your ego out of it.

4. don't become tight/passive around the bubble for fear of being knocked out - this is a recipe for disaster. you need to continue to push in good spots - there's nothing worse than being forced to put your last remaining chips in with 93o. don't fear getting knocked out in 4th or 5th.

good luck, we all go through it. it'll turn around for you.;)