Refinement

collette38dd

Refinement 1.30 Sandown. Has been put in at [123] for her handicap debut against a couple of seasoned handicappers today. The RP commentary on her last win when beating Pirate Flagship (a distance clear of the 3rd home).

"A numerically weak turnout for a novice hurdle at this venue was explained by the presence of REFINEMENT, the runaway winner of the Grade 1 bumper at last season's Punchestown Festival but a not altogether convincing winner of her two starts over hurdles prior to this contest. Particularly on the first of those two occasions her jumping was ordinary, and while that problem has been addressed, this was still no more than a workmanlike performance. She made all and was always just about in command, butshe did seem at least a little vulnerable when Pirate Flagship ranged alongside over the final two flights. That said, she pulled clear on the run-in, and Tony McCoy was far from at full shove, but the mare has still not blossomed into the hurdle performer that her bumper form suggested was likely. A watching brief continues to be necessary."" (RP)

OK so Pirate won 2 of his next 3 runs. The above race was 7 seconds slower than average, the class event that came later was the totesport.com Elite Hurdle (Class A) (A Limited Handicap) the winner was rated [150] carrying 2lb less than Refinement earlier - the time was 3 seconds faster and the gallop decribed as generous.

You don't need to get your slide rule out to notice that [123] is a fair rating if the latter race was a good gallop.

Refinement's spring form last year was impressive, this mare ran in all 3 of the top 2005 bumper events - springboard for many stables' most promising newcomers:

4th in the Weatherbys at Cheltenham;
4th in the John Smith's at Aintree;
and then beat The Cool Guy by 9L in the Paddy Power at Punchestown and has not been beaten since..

So what do you think? fair rating? will the experienced mares outjump her?

collette

masterK

There's just something about Refinement that puts me off her, I can't quite put my finger on in. It may be that she is not the most genuine. Again first look at her form and it looks rock solid but upon deeper inspection i don't think it's that great. Even the race at Punchestown is a bit iffy, if you ever get a chance to see the race again keep an eye on what happens the cool guy in it.

In saying all that tomorrows race does not exactly look full of stars and will probably be within her scope, but as for refinement going all the way to the upper grades I have my doubts.

collette38dd

agreed but at [123] maybe will run well tho not worth backing at 4/6?

collette

wheres me jumpa

ive backed refinement oh her last two outings and have done so again today at evens.

just wondering what people think of distant thunder in the 2.05? has pulled up in the last two races which has damaged my confidence in its prospects for this season but even so the price was too tempting this morning. got it at 10/1 and have each way.

Crumbs

Distant Thunder is definitely on a good handicap mark for whenever he starts running to the level of form he showed last season as a novice. He has the highest RPR in the race but 5 others have a higher official rating. When he was pulled out of a race over Xmas, his trainer said that he was now being aimed at this race, so I also think he could be worth a punt at ~11/1.

My reservations are that he's probably being targeted at one of the 3m handicap chases at Cheltenham and so he won't be over tried in any handicaps before then and that it wasn't until February last year that he really upped his game.

ctrl-alt-delete

Crumbs wrote:

Distant Thunder is definitely on a good handicap mark for whenever he starts running to the level of form he showed last season as a novice. He has the highest RPR in the race but 5 others have a higher official rating. When he was pulled out of a race over Xmas, his trainer said that he was now being aimed at this race, so I also think he could be worth a punt at ~11/1.

My reservations are that he's probably being targeted at one of the 3m handicap chases at Cheltenham and so he won't be over tried in any handicaps before then and that it wasn't until February last year that he really upped his game.

although distant thunder is well handicapped i dont think he is good enough at the moment to put that to use, as far as that race is concerned im finding it hard to oppose Ladalko, even though its his first run at the 3mile mark. the only horse i can see running him close is liberthine - she has got me in the past, and although i think her best performances have been over a shorter distance, im not ruling her out.

only thing is the prices arn't great, paddy power have ladalko favourite and are refunding losing win single stakes if your horse comes second to him, so maybe thats my bet done

wheres me jumpa

ctrl-alt-delete wrote:

.

only thing is the prices arn't great, paddy power have ladalko favourite and are refunding losing win single stakes if your horse comes second to him, so maybe thats my bet done

the kiss of death

ctrl-alt-delete

wheres me jumpa wrote:

the kiss of death

for me or paddy power?

wheres me jumpa

lol

its a tricky race with a lot of names being thrown around. looking forward to today, have bet in each of the sandown races.

1:00 ostrogoth 11-4
1.30 refinement evens
2.05 distant thunder 10/1
2.35 albarino 8/1
3.10 not left yet 5/1
3.40 tribal dispute 13/2

..your thoughts?

ctrl-alt-delete

wheres me jumpa wrote:

lol

its a tricky race with a lot of names being thrown around. looking forward to today, have bet in each of the sandown races.

1:00 ostrogoth 11-4
1.30 refinement evens
2.05 distant thunder 10/1
2.35 albarino 8/1
3.10 not left yet 5/1
3.40 tribal dispute 13/2

..your thoughts?

well im only betting on the televised racing on C4 so i havnt really looked at anything before the 2.05, but after a quick look ostrogoth was 9 1/2 lengths behind prime contender when they last met, but the difference in weights between them now leads me to think that gap could be closed significantly and maybe even reversed a bit. spidam is doing the rounds with the tipsters and looks the main contender.

i cant see anything other than refinement winning the 2.05, have him in an accunmulator myself.

already gave my thoughts on the 2.05 - and i decided to go for ladalko despite being the favourite

in the 2.35 ive gone for compton bolter, he done good for me on the flat although some are saying the ground is a bit soft for him, i was on albarino the last time it won so this would be my 2nd choice - but im ighly loyal to horses and thats why i sided with compton even though albarino may have the better credentials for this pasrticular race :eek:

in terms of the 3:10 ive read the other thread and on what ive heard im dissapointed timmy chose not left yet, but im sure he knows what he is doing, the one i can see running him close is Briareus - the ground is looking good for him.

tribal dispute impressed me in his last race, i had money on tysou in that one at cheltenham, am siding with tysou again but he's up in the weights on that one, and i think its a case of the result could be reversed on their last meeting, another one that caught my eye was lorient express but he is carrying too much weight in my opinion

Morgans

I've gone in big on Liberthine at 9/2. She should be able to cart her jockey around in this, and has claims to be being better than the rest of this field in time, (Distant Thunder respected) Ladalko has had plenty of chances to my mind, and hastn capitalised on a good fencing mark to date. Liberthine would have won a better race than this at Cheltenham last time out but for the jockey slipping out the side door - it was Royal Auclair who won (giving weight away) but I think Liberthine has about a stone in hand of the handicapper and if the jockey can hold on to her today, I think she is a good bet. Ive taken all the betfair prices for the grand national at 55s and 60s. Plenty of it there.

ctrl-alt-delete

well refinement done the job anyway

ostrogoth 2nd! did not see quasimodo doing that, 50/1 would have been a nice one

Morgans

NO excuses from Liberthine. Tapped for toe at a crucial stage. Wouldnt throw away the Grand National ticket just yet. If there is a less deserving jockey riding for a big stable than Christian Williams, please let me know. Reminds me when Joe Tizzard got the job at Nicholls stables over Timmy Murphy. Nicholls needs ruby in a bad way, I'd have his conditional Liam Heard ahead of Williams.

wheres me jumpa

tough break for ladalko. looked a bad fall but ok in the end. distant thunder made a very bad mistake early on and never recovered. id say mccoy couldnt believe his luck.

fr wishy washy

ctrl-alt-delete wrote:

well refinement done the job anyway

Lazy type who will only do enough.I always find that horses like this never look "impressive" when winning but can be incredibly difficult to get past.Keep backing til he gets beat.....

fr wishy washy

[QUOTE=Morgans If there is a less deserving jockey riding for a big stable than Christian Williams, please let me know. Reminds me when Joe Tizzard got the job at Nicholls stables over Timmy Murphy. Nicholls needs ruby in a bad way, I'd have his conditional Liam Heard ahead of Williams.[/QUOTE]

Think you're being a tad hard on him as the horse put in a short one when he looked to be going long,having said that I'd take Heard ahead of him (not saying much for Tizzard is it)

Morgans

Maybe today Fr, but he unseats off more horses than anyone else I can remember, and given the horses he rides, he has been fast tracked to a plum job. When you are in a clear lead (2-3l) with two fences to go, you should play safe and get over the fence. I heard Mick Fitz back him up on ch4 stating that he may have been more positive on him and make the horses mind up to go short, which would mean a 1l lead out of the fence rather than 3. He had enough horse left to make 2 mistakes over the last two fences and still won. While today's wasnt a hanging offence, there is plenty of mounting evidence pointing to the rider's inadequacies.