ante-post cheltenham selections...

keano442

Hi folks.

Would be interested to hear anyone's long-term projections for cheltenham, and whether they will be investing in a few ante-post multiples, whether for fun or for serious punting.

I usually have a couple of ante-post bets to small stakes around this time of year, just for an interest - there's plenty of enjoyment, for me at least, in watching a horse's price plummet between your ante-post bet and the day of the race, and that outweighs the almost inevitable disappointment when your selection is just run out of the money...

i' came close without striking it lucky twice in 2005 (neither, incidentally, at the cheltenham festival). Had Nil Desperandum at 50/1 for the Grand National, at each way the first five ... ND finished sixth. And then I backed GVA Ireland at 50/1 for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown two weeks before the race - at quarter the odds the first four; GVA - almost inevitably - finished fifth, beaten for fourth by a head.

So I will keep plugging away, hoping my choice is vindicated. My long-term hopes for Cheltenham are:

OUR BEN (Sun Alliance Chase, 25/1 in places). Placed at big odds in the Sun Alliance Hurdle last year and always likely to be a better chaser. Better on good ground too so wouldn't read too much into a 10-length defeat to soft-ground horse Nickname at Leopardstown on his first start over fences.

FOTA ISLAND (Champion Chase, 14/1 in places). Impressive winner of two-mile handicap at C'ham last year, and followed up at Aintree. Not far off top-class over hurdles (3rd in AIG and Emo Oil Champion Hurdles, sixth in Champion Hurdle). Better over fences, and better on good ground, so his recent run at Leopardstown, on first start in eight months, was very encouraging. With Well Chief and Azertyuiop ruled out and Moscow on the downgrade, the way is open for a new star and I will side with Fota against short-priced Kauto Star.

THE RAILWAY MAN (Arkle, 25/1). Arthur Moore knows as much as anyone about good two-miler chasers. Also has Mansony, which ran well behind Missed That at Leopardstown at Christmas. But I was very taken with The Railway Man at Navan in November; odds-on, jumped really well and slammed decent opposition - Zum See, third there, has won twice since.

Others which took my eye but which I may not be backing are MIGHTY MAN, for the World Hurdle (not sure whether he'll even be running, as he doesn't appear in many ante-post markets); and WAR OF ATTRITION (Gold Cup), good engine and I always thought he'd be better over further, but have reservations about his jumping.

k.

p.pete

keano442 wrote:

FOTA ISLAND (Champion Chase, 14/1 in places). Impressive winner of two-mile handicap at C'ham last year, and followed up at Aintree. Not far off top-class over hurdles (3rd in AIG and Emo Oil Champion Hurdles, sixth in Champion Hurdle). Better over fences, and better on good ground, so his recent run at Leopardstown, on first start in eight months, was very encouraging. With Well Chief and Azertyuiop ruled out and Moscow on the downgrade, the way is open for a new star and I will side with Fota against short-priced Kauto Star.

I picked this horse at random for last years festival, £10 e/w and I expected it to be money lost at the odds it had but it ended up funding a very good weekend May go for it again this year!

Ballyman

I have two horses in particular in mind, one that is massively overpriced and one that I think is nailed on with his new pilot on board.

Back In Front is available at 23.0 on betfair and is a massive price for the arkle considering he is a former champion hurdler and has beaten Kicking King also at cheltenham in the supreme novice, also over 2 miles.Proved he can jump also in Limerick on stephens day, winning by a distance.

The other is Brave Inca in the champion hurdle at around 6.5. With Mr. McCoy on board he is a new horse and I think I will back him every week from here on. Hardy could be as good as ever and feathard lady could be anything but I think BI has the power to beat them both come March 14th.

I also like Denman in the RSA hurdle and think he's literally nailed on. Only available at 6 now so probably better to wait till closer the time as all value is gone at this stage although come race day 6 will probably look like a massive price.

While not cheltenham festival, there is a meeting on there on January 28th and it's a prep race for Cloone River before the Champion Chase. He will be racing in the VC handicap off a weight of 10-4 and is available at 6.5 at the minute. This is a license to print money. He was out injured all of last year when favourite for the Arkle and if he is back to even 50% of his best he will win this doing handstands. His price for the Champion Chase will plummet after this also if he wins so a few quid for this would be wise!!

keano442

Ballyman wrote:

Back In Front is available at 23.0 on betfair and is a massive price for the arkle considering he is a former champion hurdler and has beaten Kicking King also at cheltenham in the supreme novice, also over 2 miles.Proved he can jump also in Limerick on stephens day, winning by a distance.

I like Back In Front too, but I neglected to check the exchanges. He's around 10 or 12 with bookmakers and I felt that was a bit too short for an ante-post bet, but at around 20s he would definitely come into it.

Ballyman wrote:

The other is Brave Inca in the champion hurdle at around 6.5. With Mr. McCoy on board he is a new horse and I think I will back him every week from here on. Hardy could be as good as ever and feathard lady could be anything but I think BI has the power to beat them both come March 14th.

Be careful with this - AP McCoy is likely to be claimed by JP McManus to ride Lingo in the Champion Hurdle, so that would mean a new pilot for Brave Inca.

Ballyman

In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph last weekend AP was asked about his Cheltenham horses and informed his interviewer that his best horse for Cheltenham was Brave Inca!! Lingo wasn't even mentioned.
All McCoy does is bad mouth Lingo, "he's not rated high enough for the CH" etc.You can take it from me that:
1. Lingo won't even be in the champion hurdle
and
2. AP will ride Brave Inca in the CH.

Now all we need is for him to piss up the hill!!:D

keano442

I stand corrected!! Now that changes my thinking too - I had decided to leave the Champion Hurdle alone, as I found it difficult to quantify the form of Feathard Lady's Christmas Hurdle win, the prospect of Brave Inca without AP and whether Hardy Eustace was back to his best.

With AP on board, I would side with BI as well, as - and no disrespect to Barry Cash - AP will make a difference of at least the two necks it needs to reverse last year's form.

k.

masterK

That's surprising on Lingo, in todays Racing Post Jonjo O'Neill seems quite certain that Lingo will be going to the champion hurdle and if he does McCoy will have no choice but to ride it no matter what he thinks of it.

Here's a quote regarding Lingo from O'Neill
"He'll probably have one more run in the Kingwell before the Champion, but it is possible he might even go straight there."

Ballyman

masterK wrote:

That's surprising on Lingo, in todays Racing Post Jonjo O'Neill seems quite certain that Lingo will be going to the champion hurdle and if he does McCoy will have no choice but to ride it no matter what he thinks of it.

Here's a quote regarding Lingo from O'Neill
"He'll probably have one more run in the Kingwell before the Champion, but it is possible he might even go straight there."

Ah for fuks sake. :mad:

Please don't be saying things like that to me.

That Lingo isn't worth a fuk. Wouldn't you think JJ would leave it at home and let AP get on with the business of winning on Brave Inca.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh :mad:

I'm still piling into Brave Inca anyway. He's young enough to have improved more than Hardy did over the year and with that dog Harchibald gone he has only himself to beat.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh Fuk Lingo. :mad: