Easy fold?

ionapaul

Last two tables of a live tournament, 17 players left, average stack approximately 15k. Blinds just gone up to 500/1000.

A player in mid position limps, called by button (solid player), SB completes and BB checks holding J3o and with a stack of 9.3k. Two others at the table, though not in this hand, have smaller stacks. 4k in the pot. The flop comes down 10 10 4 rainbow. Checked around. Turn is Jd (two diamonds now on board). SB checks, BB bets 2k, limper folds, button calls (has above average stack), SB folds. 8k in the pot. River is a Qh. BB checks, button dwells for a few moments and bets 4k.

Total of 12k now in pot, BB has 6.3k remaining, will have 18.3k if he calls and wins, will have 20.6k if he pushes, is called and wins, and will have 2.3k if he calls and loses.

Is this as easy a fold as I think, or does it all depend on the read the BB has of the button?

ollyk1

Hey Paul,

Since I was watching this hand maybe my advice is coloured somewhat but my impression was very easy fold. Minimum I put the guy on was a straight draw that had paired on the river. Either Q9 or more likely KQ, but my strong hunch after he called your turn bet was for a slow played Ten. That guy loves to limp with connectors. He'd have raised with a pair preflop given the action I felt. The board by the river really suited his likely holdings and the chances of a split pot which was the best you were realitically hoping (imho) for were very low.

I couldn't believe it when you called and that's why I asked if you had AJ and maybe couldn't lay it down. Now I know you had a 3 kicker! :eek: (only kidding we all have "moments" I know I did last night so no moral high ground here!!)

You were most definitely facing a hand that beat yours imho based on watching that guys play over a few hours on different tables and the betting.

6300 wasn't a great stack if you fold but it was still only a double through from a decent chance.

P.S. My brother went on to take 4th after running his KK into a shortstacks AT sooted and then pushing with A5 only to have the same guy wake up with AA

Amaru

How many get paid?

Also, why would you lead out on the turn, but check on the river if you're thinking of calling a big bet(proportional to your stack) on the end? A check raise isn't going to get him to fold, and if you think you're ahead, why not just put it all in anyway?

ollyk1

Amaru wrote:

How many get paid?

Also, why would you lead out on the turn, but check on the river if you're thinking of calling a big bet(proportional to your stack) on the end? A check raise isn't going to get him to fold, and if you think you're ahead, why not just put it all in anyway?

9 paid Amaru. But Paul is not playing to make the final table all the money is in the top 3 to 4 spots and he knows this.

I agree with the point about checking the river you've pretty much told him that your hand is TTJJQ. I'd have been surprised if you'd turned over anything else. You'd have most likely raised all-in with AQ/AJ preflop. AT you'd have bet the river. You check because its very likely you're beat and you called hoping for a split at best and hoping (this was my impression live and it hasn't changed on reflection).

Amaru

ollyk1 wrote:

9 paid Amaru. But Paul is not playing to make the final table all the money is in the top 3 to 4 spots and he knows this.

I was only asking to see if this was the bubble or not. This is a big factor in the way some people play.

What did the villain turn over?

ollyk1

Sorry Amaru I misunderstood. Two almost full tables left (18 runners say) so the bubbliciousness had not even started!

Paul called eventually and the villian turned over TJ. He then went and called with 55 to a late position raiser on his SB and the guy turned over KK (his range was very wide and Paul was almost pot committed to his 500 in the SB). ty gl gg.

Iago

why not push preflop?

failing that I think that you have to fold the river, I can't think of a hand range that you beat that's betting here. At best I would guess he has Jx which means you might split it.

You've still got enough "just" to get some folding equity on the SB or button in the next two hands and you'll be in a better position then to make a move.

edit: Your read will also make a decision, but a flat call on the turn and then a bet on the river that if you have a decent hand you have to call would spell trouble to me regardless of my read on the player. Even bad players get big hands and are capable of playing them.

ionapaul

You got it Olly, I was calling for a split pot, rather than an outright win. I really tried to think it through before calling and obviously this type of dwell isn't my thing at all!

I would have played it almost exactly as he did if I had a ten in his position, but I felt there was also a possibility he had called with Ax or Kx suited and bet on the river representing a 10 or Q (of course he may have held a Q if he called my turn bet with a straight draw). I thought if he had a J it would be a split, he would have raised pre-flop or on the turn with QJ, KJ or AJ. I surprised myself by calling, in retrospect, as I'm normally much more conservative...any wonder I haven't had a decent cash in months!

Bozzer

ionapaul wrote:

I was calling for a split pot, rather than an outright win.

if you're gonna call this river then busted diamonds need to make up a large chunk of villain's hand range.
i don't know exactly how loose villain is, but most solid players would only be limping J9s/J8s preflop(that you are now splitting with).
if you let the times villain is betting the river with these hands be offset by the times villain is betting the river with 89, then you need at least 1/4 of villain's remaining hand range to be busted diamonds.

you'll be able to put villain on a better hand range than i would, so you can see for yourself whether you're call was good.
my guess is that villain's range will be wide enough that 25% of it won't be a busted flush. that 25% figure may need to be higher depending on various tourney factors.

Norwich Fan Rob

a busted flush is the ONLY hand that u beat that plays this hand the way the villian did imo.
I dont think he bets 4k on the end here with a Jack because there is no hand worse than a jack that can call.

Bozzer

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

a busted flush is the ONLY hand that u beat that plays this hand the way the villian did imo.
I dont think he bets 4k on the end here with a Jack because there is no hand worse than a jack that can call.

You will occasionally find a hand like J9s betting the river to fold out a J he is splitting with if he checks behind. But the villain would need to be very sure that you are weak.

Amaru

NEVER call hoping for a split. Either raise and make him call for it, or fold.