King Queen Suited

Hectorjelly

I thought this was a fun hand. Im playing 12, Ive been playing very tight and passive. Anyone paying attention would of noticed that.

The small blind has about $450 and I cover him. He seems decent allthough I havent played with him much. He is very tight and easily readable, allthough thats not neccessarily a bad thing most of the time on this table. I think he reads this forum. Utg is bad and loose. He will call preflop with any two cards. He will then call on the flop with any pair or draw. I love this guy.

Utg (bad) limps. I limp on button with KQs. Sb (good tight) makes it 10. Utg calls. The sb's range dominate mine (AA KK, AK/QQ/JJ). Utg has any 2 cards.

(pot = 30) The flop is QT2r. SB leads for around 20. Utg calls. I call. Neither of them flopped a set, but its likely im behind the sb. If he leads the turn im almost certainly beaten.

(pot = 90) Turn is a ten. Sb leads for 50. What should I do if

a) utg folds.
b) utg calls.

Bozzer

I think you should isolate preflop. UTG is loose,plays poorly postflop,you are in position and sb is tight.
If bb is loose then I can understand your limp because you don’t want him interfering, but if he isn’t then you should’ve raised it up imo.

Turn situations
a) easy fold
Tight sb is not gonna bet turn with AK/JJ after being called in 2 spots on flop.
So he would need to give you credit for trips/set/two pair to lay down.
You’re unlikely to overcall flop with just a 10. He probably doesn’t think you call preflop with Q10.
You would raise preflop with QQ, only 1 combo of 10 10 you can have of which you might have raised preflop. So sb would need to attach a lot of weight to you holding 22 here. He might think you would have raised flop with 22 some % of time considering the loose player was in the pot. But in any case it’s far too narrow a range to try and blow him off his almost certain o/pair. (This assumes sb is somewhat capable of hand reading).

b) Thinking of pulling a squeeze play on sb. The difference between this situation and previous is that sb is much more likely to fear a big hand here, considering you are showing a lot of strength with a tight aggressor and just as important, a loose caller in the pot. If you had a looser image and sb thought that you could have peeled flop with 10x then a squeeze play is almost standard. In this situation it’s a little thinner considering you’ve a tight image, but I still think it’s profitable considering the fact that your showing a lot of strength,sb also has utg to worry about and you are likely ahead of utg’s hand range here.
You have $420 left.Pot is $190 and a pot sized raise would be to $290. I think a raise to $250 has as much fold equity as a pot sized one and it saves $ if utg pushes and you then fold.

Edit; just a clarification on the squeeze play in (b). I don't think it's actually necessary for sb to think you could have 10x here. SB probably knows that utg can have 10x here and that should be enough.
The EV you gain when you knock out a better hand and the fact that utg's range is still wide enough makes this play profitable.

RoundTower

This hand is hurting my head, I wanted to do what Bozzer suggested, then I thought it had to be unprofitable, but I can't convince myself of it.

Bozzer wrote:

The EV you gain when you knock out a better hand and the fact that utg's range is still wide enough makes this play profitable.

What do you think UTG's range is here, and his range for calling you? Plenty of players take one off on the flop with any excuse, then the second T comes down, they look back at their hand, shake their head, wonder why they can never hit their straight draws when everyone else does, and disgustedly throw it in the muck. If he is like this he has a T quite often here, and he only needs one about one time in three to make this unprofitable for you given that there is some chance the SB will call you with KK/AA.

So I got that far and then realised that UTG might call you with a Q or something like 99, so you win as much as you lose if you get it all in.

I agree easy fold in (a), don't know whether I would have raised to isolate preflop, but would probably have folded to the raise. Well played if it worked.

CoD

I'd probably have been outta there preflop but now i'm in...

a) utg folds, I push, Isolated the SB, and if hes as tight as you say he'll lay it down, i see him with AA/KK, or trying to play poker with AK.
b) utg calls, more worried about him as he could easily have a ten. Fold

Bozzer

RoundTower wrote:

What do you think UTG's range is here, and his range for calling you?

I actually misread some of utg's description which made him sound a lot looser. I put his initial calling range at Qx,10x,KJ,J9,22. I was originally including gutshots and some pocket pairs < 10's, but these depend on exactly how loose/bad utg is. If he's bad enough to have as wide a calling range as this on the turn, then I think he calls with worse queens and straight draws when you raise, aswell as the hands he's ahead of us with.
If his range is actually narrower then i'm not sure a raise is profitable.

NickyOD

You haven't told us how much UTG has. Will the SB still bet here with pocket Jacks? Is he more likely to make a crying call with AA/KK if you raise heads up or if UTG stays in is he likely to think his single pair is no good.

a) I think you could argue for fodling/calling or raising here. It all depends what you beleive the $50 bet means. To me it looks like pocket Jacks but against 2 oponents and YOU on the button its more likely to be AA/KK. I would have thought he might bet a little more with and overpair though. It's tempting to raise and see if you can push him off his single pair but I'd probably fold here since there will be better oportunities to push this player off pots.

b) I think you should raise. You are likely to be able to get the SB to fold a better hand and get UTG to call with a worse one.

Hectorjelly

Apologies Nicky, utg started with 200.

Preflop I would often raise and it is a standard place to isolate but this was the first poker id played in a few weeks and I was playing very cautiously. When the SB raises I think its a clear call because of utg and the fact that the SB and me both have 200 big blinds.

Your analysis is excellent as always Bozzer, but I came to the opposite conclusion. I didnt include all of my thoughts at the time.

Utg could well have a draw, but even bad players baulk at calling large bets with a gutshot, so if he calls the turn I think he has a Queen or a ten, or maybe KJ. Hes bad but not a complete idiot so I doubt he has 99 or similar. I thought there was close to a 50% chance that he had a ten on the turn when he called (actually more because of the speed of the call), so I folded as I am now probably in third place and will obv never get utg to fold anything that beats me.

As soon as the ten appeared I decided to raise should utg fold, I think you overestimate the hand reading skills that the sb would possess, ie allthough its very unlikely I overcalled the flop with a lone ten I dont think he would realise that, especially in the heat of battle. My plan was to min raise the turn then 200/all in on the river.

Bozzer

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think you overestimate the hand reading skills that the sb would possess, ie allthough its very unlikely I overcalled the flop with a lone ten I dont think he would realise that, especially in the heat of battle.

this is true - i give opponents too much credit a lot of the time.
If you did know that sb was decent and that he viewed you as tight then i don't think you can make the play.
my analysis makes more sense if utg plays very poorly, sb plays decent and your image is tight.

Tackle

I have a feeling the SB would have folded the river had you made that play, even though he was probably on tilt at the time. I also think SB believed utg could have KJ or a turned flush draw and would bluff the river if checked to so he would have to call.