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SNG Variance

  • 03-01-2006 2:50pm
    #1
    Iago
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,638 ✭✭✭


    I'm sure most have already implemented some sort of similar system and/or read through this thread on 2+2 already, but for anyone who hasn't and is interested in playing SNGs it's a very good read..

    http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2617594&page=

    First off I decided that the player would exclusively play $20+$2 tables and that they would place:

    1st - 14%
    2nd - 12%
    3rd - 14%


    The very worst day our player lost $580 and their best day resulted in a $1,400 win - but these are extreme results as on average our player won $240.
    Original Poster wrote:
    The interesting bit is that 10% of days resulted in losing $80 or MORE. 20% (including the previous 10%) of days played resulted in only winning $20 or less.

    However to me the interesting part was that 20% of the time this player would play all day and end up roughly breaking even or worse (and sometimes much worse). The other point to make here is that this player is absolutely immune from tilt i.e. the result of their next game is in no way affected by any of the previous results. So to reiterate this player will play 50 SNGs and 20% of the time they will breakeven or lose - and this pure variance and is never due to tilt induced bad play.

    another good thread on this linked below
    http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=1691666&page=


Comments

  • #2
    staringelf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 251 ✭✭staringelf


    thanks for the links. interesting reading. makes me feel better when i hit a bad run every few months or so. as one of the posters in your link says: "variance is not for the weak".

    EDIT: just reading thru the 2nd link. i love some of the names they have for the sequence of finishes you get in sng's.

    the grand slam: 4 1st's in a row
    the cycle: (1,2,3,4)
    bridesmaid slam (4,4,4,4)
    the holy grail (8(!) 1st's in a row while 8-tabling)
    prisoner's welcome (10,10,10,10)


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