Laying Odds on favourites

chopper1981

Just wanted to get some peoples opinions. Does anyone have any idea of the percentage of odds on favourites that get beaten. As it seems to me alot of them do. For example Solerina and Moscow Flyer. Surely if your laying these horses at 1-2 your getting 2-1 the rest of the field. For me alot of these odds on horse don't justify the odds. What do people think of just laying off alot of these horses.

Bartonprince

I think putting your money on an odds on favorite in jump type races is tragic.

A horse might have all the stamina in the world, but if they fall or get knocked. Your money is gone.

It's the same with sprint races. Between 5 and 7 furlongs. If you back a odds on and your horse has won a few in a row, and then gets a bad start or gets boxed in... well there you go.

I only bet on odds on favorites in races between a mile and 2 miles on the flat.

Bartonprince

Bartonprince wrote:

I think putting your money on an odds on favorite in jump type races is tragic.

A horse might have all the stamina in the world, but if they fall or get knocked. Your money is gone.

It's the same with sprint races. Between 5 and 7 furlongs. If you back a odds on and your horse has won a few in a row, and then gets a bad start or gets boxed in... well there you go.

I only bet on odds on favorites in races between a mile and 2 miles on the flat.

Althought i'm not much of a gambler, but the 2 horses you picked are very good examples that kind of back up my theory

pro_gnostic_8

chopper1981 wrote:

Does anyone have any idea of the percentage of odds on favourites that get beaten. As it seems to me alot of them do.

Well, Adrian Massey has a huge database on this going back ten years and covering over 50,000 races. (It's a free site, so I'm not spamming anything.) Anyway, generating a custom report from the database shows the following statistics:

Qualifiers (odds-on) .............. 5,567
Winners (odds-on) ............... 3.380 (60.7%)
Level Stake Profit ................ 96.4%

So at SP prices you would have shown a loss of 3.6% by BACKING all odds-on selections. Conversely, by LAYING you would have been in profit to the same three-and-a-half cent in the pound.

But .........here is the kick in the ass (there's always one), laying horses on Betfair means that on average you are laying at a price 20% higher than SP so you will be a fairly large loser in this instance.

Regards,
Jack C.

finnpark

chopper1981 wrote:

Just wanted to get some peoples opinions. Does anyone have any idea of the percentage of odds on favourites that get beaten. As it seems to me alot of them do. For example Solerina and Moscow Flyer. Surely if your laying these horses at 1-2 your getting 2-1 the rest of the field. For me alot of these odds on horse don't justify the odds. What do people think of just laying off alot of these horses.

I think you will be up a small amount by the end of the year laying them.

I am going to lay all favs the day after a load of favs win - the probability of favs making profit 2 days in a row is very slim.

A good time to start laying favs is when a few of them win - start laying after that as things will even out.

Laying is very easy to make money, much easier than backing in my opinion.

emmemm

pro g
The 20% doesn't apply to odds on shots-unfortuneately for backers.
I tried laying 2/1 or less when at least 10 ran on soft ground in hcaps.That was in spring and got on well but the ground kept improving so qualifiers diminished and I lost interest.Might revisit now.Off to Massey.

chump

finnpark wrote:

I think you will be up a small amount by the end of the year laying them.

I am going to lay all favs the day after a load of favs win - the probability of favs making profit 2 days in a row is very slim.

A good time to start laying favs is when a few of them win - start laying after that as things will even out.

Laying is very easy to make money, much easier than backing in my opinion.

finnpark you realise your grasp on probability is completely wrong
what you've said there, while possibly naturally intuitive, is false

A past event has no impact on future probability

finnpark

chump wrote:

finnpark you realise your grasp on probability is completely wrong
what you've said there, while possibly naturally intuitive, is false

A past event has no impact on future probability

I know what you are saying but in reality, in horse racing, it is an excellent rule in my opinion.

It won't always work but it increases the chances dramatically. Things seem to go in cycles. Its weird.

Laying the tipsters is still the best method. Have a look at the tipsters table, down down down - not many going up.

chump

I personally think everything will come full circle, and if you're a consistent gamblóir you're on to a loser, or a break-even at best...

People should probably aim to just have a bit of craic, and know when to quit ... ie. set oneself a limit for the day and stick to it...

I don't buy the whole keep doubling up thing, as one day you'll be stung.
But best o luck

pro_gnostic_8

emmemm wrote:

pro g
The 20% doesn't apply to odds on shots-unfortuneately for backers.

Indeed emmemm, that is a very valid comment. Betfair prices do incline to come closer to parity with SP on odds-on horses. But I would venture to suggest that overall you will still be Laying at a couple of ticks above SP. I cannot be certain of this and can't provide any back-up proof -- just a gut feeling from experience.

Anyway, is it worth it for an eventual profit of 3.6% after ten years and thousands of bets?? And that's without taking into consideration the 5% Betfair commission which would be a hefty amount on five thousand trades.

Not for me, Ta.

emmemm

Agreed pro g.
The 5% Tax is surely making Mr.Black the richest person in Europe.
I imagine they would make fortunes charging 1% with their huge turnover.
Can't understand why there is no serious competitor to drive down this tax.
Ladbrokes were supposed to enter the exchange world but haven't heard anything lately.