Set on a flush flop

Shortstack

Ok maths and equity experts, sort this out for me, similar to Andy Black vs Joe Hachem's Pass the sugar hand:

Flop 9 8 3 all clubs

I have 9s 9h

I am last to speak

First player bets 40 into 50 pot. Next player raises all in for 900.

I have 700 in front of me.

Cash game.

Call or fold?

Marq

Any information on either of the players? i.e. Possible holdings, previous actions, winning/losing? Have huge overbets been common on the flop in this game? If so, for what reason?

As for the maths:
If you are sure that the player all-in has a flush, you must fold.
However, if you are sure that the player all-in has a flush, and that the other player in the hand will call (and has you covered), then a call here is better than break-even.

this is poker though, and you can't be sure of anything, so I refer you to the questions above.

padser

You are are a 2 to 1 dog if its a made flush.

The main things you could be up against are

a) middle or bottom set trying to protect against a flush
b) 2 pair (if a player got in free on BB or saw cheap flop with 89s)
c)an overpair trying to protect
d)a low flush protecting against A or K of clubs calling.
e) probably not up against nut flush since its there is nothing scary on the board he needs to gaurd against

So as Marq said its a fold if your sure its a made flush and you wouldnt be getting called from behind.

All things being equal, provided the standard of play isnt v good at the table I think there are just too many hands you are dominating to fold. There is a good chance you are in excellent position and worst case senario you are just under 35% to win. Im calling 95% of the time here.

NeVeR

The mates tell you to fold. But i dont think it's that easy , there are still some cards to hit to make a full house.


Can you tell us what you did ?

Shortstack

Firstly I had only been at the table for 15 minutes and the player who had moved all in had done so twice before in that time against other people. Once not showing and once showing a draw.

In the end I was trying to work out in my head how many times I have to be facing a draw to make it a profitable call. I was also thinking that the other player may have a big club and come along for the ride if I called also. My time was running out and knew that I was 35% if it was a made flush so I called.

The other player folded and I found out it was a King high flush, good job I was not betting out with the nuts! However as it turned out I made the nuts on the river with the case nine

When I was accused of being lucky, I made a comment about how it was a profitable call based on the fact I cannot be sure that the flush is definately out against a player who makes this move on draws. I justed wanted to see if I was right.

shaydy

alright mike well done nice pot! personally i think i would have leaned on the fold here. Its a bit of a gamble calling here with only 15 mins on the table.

would you have called if you weren't doing so well at the moment? this might sound like playing with scared money but in reality it happens to most of us, we get down to our last couple of buyins etc

Shay

Shortstack

shaydy wrote:

would you have called if you weren't doing so well at the moment?

Shay

I never make a decision based on well I am doing in game. I may make a decision on what to play based on how well I am doing but never a decision on a hand.

shaydy wrote:

Its a bit of a gamble calling here with only 15 mins on the table.

Shay

My view was that the player concerned had already played two pots in thisd manner already and one was definately a draw. I was hoping one of the maths guys would tell me how many times I need them to be on a draw to make it a profitable call in the long run. ie: was I gambling or not?

davorens

Assuming no made flush I think the next worst case for you is if they both have makeable draws say a high club and a 2 way straight in this case you're about 56% if they both play.

You are 70% against the high club on it's own - 73% against the 2 way straight on its own.

You need 50% or more to win so with 1 player he needs to be on either of the draws about 44% of the time I think.

Bozzer

Can't resist those equity calcualtions. I'll do a rough method.
* This all assumes the initial bettor folds if you call for simplicity*

When you're ahead

against set - you have ~ 0.95 pot equity
against flush draw - you have ~ 0.7 pot equity

if you assume a flush draw is 3x more likely than a set then on average when you're ahead you have {3(0.7) + (0.95)}/4 pot equity which is about 3/4

When you're behind

against flush - you have ~ (1/3) pot equity

How much do you need?

pot is ~ 1500. you have to call 700.
- so you need 7/15 pot equity

Now let x be how often you're ahead, then we have

(7/15) = x(3/4) + 1-x(1/3)
7/15 = (5/12)x + 1/3
2/15 = (5/12)x
x = ~ 32%

These calculations were pretty rough, but according to this you need to be ahead at least 32% of time to call. I'd put it at more like 30%.
I assumed here that a flush draw was 3x more likely than a set which could be way off.
FWIW I would only fold here if villain was the biggest rock I'd ever played with.