Would I call YOU with Queen high?

RoundTower

Playing in the Fitz round of each last night. We are playing hold'em and the blinds are €1-€2. A young player sits down with €100. I know him quite well. He is aggressive and can be a good player if he wants, but he loves to gamble and I know he is losing recently. I think he might try to get his €100 all in as quickly as possible.

He is UTG and makes it €4 on the blind. There is one caller, a poor player, two seats after him, and I make it €20 on the button with QJ of spades. The caller has about €200-€250 and I have more. Our young friend calls and the limper calls. The flop comes 224 with 2 clubs and a spade. He bets €65 more or less all in and the limper folds. I stick it all in. Correct?

Amaru

Without the back story, which inclines me to believe you made the right call, i'd say no. 66-88 would be the most likely hands i'd put him on. Besides that, you're behind to any A and any K.

staringelf

no offense but i think you played the hand absolutely horribly.
i don't care what image you have of him, your play makes no sense.
the reraise to 20 seems a little excessive for blinds of only 1-2 but i can forgive it for the image you have of the other two plus your good position. when you get two callers though you have to immediately assume your Q high is no good - its probably way WAY behind at this point - i'd say one of them has a middle pair and the other has Ax.

when the flop comes its probably safe enough to assume he hasn't got much (especially when he just sticks it in - anyone with a 2 would try and milk it). however, you call off a huge bet with Q high. you have no info at all on what he has (actually if anything you gotta assume at least a middle pair from his initial raise and then calling your 10x BB reraise). any ace has you beat, any King, any pair, - even 35o has a pretty good chance against you. you have Q high and a backdoor flush draw.

he's pot committed and not folding to your reraise. i take it you won the hand and he probably had ten high or something but i still think thats a horrible call

bohsman

Youve got an absolute monster. 2 overcards and a flush draw. You cant possibly fold

DeLaBass

Your pre-flop raise was far too much in my opinion for QJ. You're trying to steal i believe but the UTG raiser will probably have you beat everytime and i can't possibly see him folding unless he was trying to represent from a crap postion with a shortstack, seems highly dubious. And i don't think the sandwhich affect applies here either for him. Horrible flop for you and you're indeed way behind to the most likely Ax or pair.

It would have been better to call it preflop and get a feel for the flop. Even suited QJ isn't all that good. Youre on the button anyway so that makes all your decisions alot easier.

Cianos

bohsman wrote:

Youve got an absolute monster. 2 overcards and a flush draw. You cant possibly fold

back door flush draw

Lafortezza

Alot of people posting sensible advice may not have played in the Fitz cash games much. Calling with QJs here given what you know about Villain is probably a break even play imho. Good for the image if you're looking for action later on even though that's not usually hard to find in these games..

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

NOTE: This is Roundtower2, not the OP poster:

There is approx €70 already in the pot and then €65 thrown in by a loose player who wants to gamble and was probably going to throw his money in anyway. Just you and him left. Given your read on him, its probably a fifty/fifty and the odds would seem to suggest you should call. (obviously, this is based on the read of the other player just wanting to gamble)

What did you do?

Marq

I am also of the opinion that this is probably a break even play in this particular game against this player as you have described him.

staringelf

i don't think its break even. i think that's taking the easy way out to try and call it that. he's getting about 2 to 1 on his money. do you really think he's going to win this 1 in 3 times? and that's just to break even.
lets look at what the villain could have and his chances against it:
1. he holds a 2 - unlikely but you're almost dead against this.
2. he holds a pp tens or lower - you're about 25% at best to win with 6 outs
3. of the pp tens or lower you're pretty much dead if he has 44 - however also unlikely as he wouldn't have played it this way.
4. he has an overpair - you're a huge dog - he could easily have JJ-AA here - bad players can get good cards too you know. he could have slow played it and then got a little scared when the board paired and the flush draw was out.
5. he has any A or any K - again you're probably about 25-30% at best
6. he has two cards lower than QJ, both of which are live. you're about a 70% fav roughly.

they're the main holdings barring a few other random ones he could have and you're getting nowhere near 2/1 on them apart from the last one and its unlikely he has that.

even if he is a bad player and desperate to recoup his earlier losses, how mad is he to stick in 65 euro with 10 high after you reraised preflop? if he is that mad i think you should give him credit for having huge balls/being a complete moron.

i still think this is nowhere near break even. i am prepared to be proved wrong though. i'd just like to see someone explain it. by the way, i'm sure my percentages aren't perfect above, but i know they're pretty close and a good rough estimate.

Marq

staringelf wrote:

do you really think he's going to win this 1 in 3 times?

Yes, I do.

The villian raised on the blind so his holding could be anything. A lot of the players in this particular game will not fold to a single re-raise after raising on the blind. I think that he is unlikely to have a big hand, as it's a good oppurtunity for him to take his short stack and jam it in pre-flop to get heads up with the button re-raiser. The only hands that I'm really worried about here contain a two. I think Dave is equally likely to be up against two worse overcards as he is to up against a hand that is beating him. 78 of clubs or something similar is a likely hand for the villian to have.

The fity game in the fitz is poker, but not as you know it. there are extra considerations to take into account. the description of the player involved moves me towards a game due to meta-game considerations. Roundtower is in a position where he will most likely not have to show his hand if he is losing.

staringelf

Marq wrote:

Yes, I do.

The villian raised on the blind so his holding could be anything. A lot of the players in this particular game will not fold to a single re-raise after raising on the blind. I think that he is unlikely to have a big hand, as it's a good oppurtunity for him to take his short stack and jam it in pre-flop to get heads up with the button re-raiser. The only hands that I'm really worried about here contain a two. I think Dave is equally likely to be up against two worse overcards as he is to up against a hand that is beating him. 78 of clubs or something similar is a likely hand for the villian to have.

The fity game in the fitz is poker, but not as you know it. there are extra considerations to take into account. the description of the player involved moves me towards a game due to meta-game considerations. Roundtower is in a position where he will most likely not have to show his hand if he is losing.

i still don't agree. for me, there's just far too many likely holdings that have me beat to justify calling off 65 euro with Q high. i've never played the fifty game in the fitz but i don't think that's relevant. this just comes down to basic poker intuition and even if yer man is on a stone cold bluff there's so many hands he can do it with that he's actually winning with it.
for me mathamatically, its nowehere near 1 in 3.

anyway, doesn't matter. did he show 8 high or what roundtower?:rolleyes:

Marq

staringelf wrote:

i've never played the fifty game in the fitz but i don't think that's relevant. this just comes down to basic poker intuition...

The decisions that one makes due to 'Basic Poker Intuition' are influenced by the particulars of the game that one is playing and the tendencies of the players within that game as you perceive them. Hence I think that the nature of the game itself is very relevant. I think the phrase "Basic Poker Intuition" is something of an oxymoron as well.

Concurrently I think that it debases your analysis somewhat if you blatently fail to consider such information, although I can understand that as far as the fifty game in the fitz is concerned, it's quite difficult to appreciate why this is probably a break-even call. I don't know exactly who Roundtower is referring to in his post, but I can off-hand think of so many players who fit that description and play that game that his play here makes a lot of sense to me.

staringelf wrote:

i don't think its break even. i think that's taking the easy way out to try To call it that

Incidentally I think that the easy way out would have been to fold, and never mention the hand again.

padser

Iv also never played the 50 game in the Fitz. I have however played in many exptremely loose agressive games. A pre flop hand will contain and A or K just under 1 time in 3. Considering that he raised the pot initially either he did so with a hand better then QJ OR He is raising with/playing with such S*** that you are going to have a massive edge on him

Any raising hand that you are now ahead of would have to be worse then QJ. I would say from an UTG raise its highly unlikely you were ahead with QJ even forgottening the fact a re raise was called.

Also you said that he can 'be a good player when he wants to be'. Anyone even remotely capable of being a good player wouldnt be raising with something worse then QJ except in extreme and unusual circumstances.

Lets say he did raise with for example Q-10 and you have him dominated. Then i go back to my second point He is raising with/playing with such S*** that you are going to have a massive edge on him. You just need to sit back for a couple of rounds and take money off him with a hand with much more EV.

Anyway my vote is for a fold.

What happened?

fixer

padser, UTG raised it blind.

handsfree

if his name is mark it means he is on a draw. he tries this on me in ucd alot and if your willing to gamble you can clean him out. it is though important to have an edge on him when he's pulling this move. i'll give you an example

cash .25/.50
i have pocket kings flop comes 8 high with the possiblity of a straight.
i have raised preflop and he checked, i bet €5. he calls . the turn is a J and he goes all in €30 . i call . river is a J and i win with 2 pair. he didn't show his cards but said he had an open ender.

so your probably ahead and did the right thing. he is however a flukey bastard so i hope you won.

padser

I hadnt realised it was raised blind. Even with that i still think your loosing twice as often as your winning, making in -EV


Handfree why do you continue to play in UCD? Surely you have realised by now that the pot is raped to the extent as to make the game unbeatable? Also the sheer agressiveness of the game means unless you enjoy simply playing preflop poker its not an enjoyable experience. Its rare (i would say less then 15%-20%) there is a flop delt unless players are all in

handsfree

i play the cash games there. no rake and very loose which suits me. i buy in for about $10 and go hame at 9. it can be very profitable especially if you sit to the left of mark who will chase everything. my biggest win there was €110 which i consider to be a good return on 2 hrs enjoyment with low blinds

Marq

padser wrote:

Even with that i still think your loosing twice as often as your winning, making in -EV

Which means he's winning one in three times which makes it EV Neutral. Therefore if it helps his image at the table and encourages action later on, this is a good call.

RoundTower

Marq wrote:

Yes, I do.

The villian raised on the blind so his holding could be anything. A lot of the players in this particular game will not fold to a single re-raise after raising on the blind. I think that he is unlikely to have a big hand, as it's a good oppurtunity for him to take his short stack and jam it in pre-flop to get heads up with the button re-raiser. The only hands that I'm really worried about here contain a two. I think Dave is equally likely to be up against two worse overcards as he is to up against a hand that is beating him. 78 of clubs or something similar is a likely hand for the villian to have.

The fity game in the fitz is poker, but not as you know it. there are extra considerations to take into account. the description of the player involved moves me towards a game due to meta-game considerations. Roundtower is in a position where he will most likely not have to show his hand if he is losing.

The way I looked at it, I thought he would have quite likely stuck it all in preflop with any pair or any ace. Probably not any king. He has a hand that he figured he needed to see a flop with. If he has a 2, this particular player probably bets the flop with this stack, although he might have checked. So his most likely hand is two clubs Queen high or lower, or possibly 35. I know this is what staringelf considered his least likely hand, but I still disagree.

Padser - you obviously didn't read the post, and worse, don't understand how to play a cash game. You say that

He is raising with/playing with such S*** that you are going to have a massive edge on him. You just need to sit back for a couple of rounds and take money off him with a hand with much more EV.

The first part of this is true; I do have an edge over this player. The second part is contradictory: you suggest that I pass up my edge and hope to get a better edge some other time. I prefer to play when I have the advantage both times; otherwise I would need to play for twice as long to win the same amount of money. This player has plenty of money, and even if he didn't, he would go broke and an equally bad player would sit down.

Handsfree - I don't like to name the players I play a particular hand against in the Fitz, but his name is not Mark.

One last thing Marq:

Roundtower is in a position where he will most likely not have to show his hand if he is losing.

Actually the chance to show the hand was something that swung me towards calling. If I am winning it looks like an incredible call; if I am losing, I will never be bluffed again.


edit - forgot to say anything about the reraise preflop. I don't think it's so terrible -- I'm up against the blinds, a blind raiser and a player who could have anything, in position with what is an excellent hand, even if it wouldn't do too well all in preflop. Raising also encourages people to blind raise if they know I am likely to make it live. But calling might be even better, and is what I would normally do here.

RoundTower

In case anyone's still wondering what he had, he had 66. So I made the wrong call this time, but I was still happy with the decision. Even more so when I hit runner runner spades and won the pot anyway.

Amaru

Do i get the prize? Also, you're going to poker hell!

Lafortezza

RoundTower wrote:

In case anyone's still wondering what he had, he had 66. So I made the wrong call this time, but I was still happy with the decision. Even more so when I hit runner runner spades and won the pot anyway.

Lol, how did the table react?