It's rare that I fold Kings preflop but damn! (HH)

NickyOD

Level 1 in a $50 SnG.

***** Hand History for Game 3133371103 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:17926262 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, December 02, 19:28:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 68363 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: Kjettsan ( $1000 )
Seat 10: ATorgersen ( $1022 )
Seat 5: Poker_Beaver ( $970 )
Seat 1: NickyOD ( $985 )
Seat 7: LukB_A_Lady ( $960 )
Seat 6: golden_robbo ( $970 )
Seat 4: Jonnygut ( $1350 )
Seat 8: BIGBRI123111 ( $758 )
Seat 3: BrianCardnal ( $985 )
Seat 9: bigpep ( $1000 )
Trny:17926262 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NickyOD [ Ks Kc ] <----Bada Bing!
ATorgersen calls [15].
NickyOD raises [75].
Kjettsan folds.
BrianCardnal folds.
Jonnygut raises [175].<---This kind of micro raise always means the same thing at these tables. AA or KK.
Poker_Beaver folds.
golden_robbo folds.
LukB_A_Lady folds.
BIGBRI123111 is all-In [748] Ugh!
bigpep folds.
ATorgersen folds.
NickyOD folds.
Jonnygut calls [583].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 9h, 6c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]
Jonnygut shows [ Kd, Kh ] two pairs, kings and fives. Whoops!
BIGBRI123111 shows [ Qc, As ] a pair of fives.

fade2black

I wouldn't feel too bad to be honest. Others on here may feel that you did the wrong thing...but I'm literally fresh from winning my first Ladbrokes Ladders tournament and I say only you know if it was a bad fold cause you were playing at the table and you knew the players. (Sorry that sounds smug but i'm well impressed with myself!)

RoundTower

Good fold. If you could see their cards, do you still fold?

fade2black

RoundTower wrote:

Good fold. If you could see their cards, do you still fold?

Course he doesn't

djkeogh

Obviously better to split pot than take nothing. Always a tough call. I often find myself folding pocket pairs in STT's and MTT's when it's been raised around the table. Tough to do (especially when the set pops up after folding). It's about lasting to the end in these tournaments and trying not to lose chips on failing to make sets. Very hard to fold JJ or higher of course.

NickyOD

RoundTower wrote:

Good fold. If you could see their cards, do you still fold?

Wow great Question.

The AQ will win 32% of the time and the other KK will win 3% of the time. You will chop 64% and win 1%.

The pot would have been around 748*3 + 25 (blinds), so 2270 total. You would win 0 35% of the time. 1135 chips 64% of the time, and 2270 1% of the time.

0 * 34% = 0
1135 * 64% = 726.4
2270 * 1* = 22.7

Total Expected Chips = 749

So it looks like it doesn't really matter what you do b/c your expectation will be the same whether you fold or call.

fade2black

Apologies, I had forgotton all about the AQ

Ste05

fade2black wrote:

Course he doesn't

Don't think it's quite as obvious as you think, pre-flop, with these holdings there's about a 30% chance that he loses the pot,:mad: and he's only playing for half of BIGBRI123111's stack, so he's risking a huge proportion of his stack to win about 380 chips, and with the blinds at 10/15, would you make this call as quick now???

EDIT: Didn't see the above posts

RoundTower

It's actually slightly worse than that, because you are going to be behind in the side pot (your flush cards are dead). I didnt put it into the calculator but I'm delighted to see it's almost exactly 33-33-33. I think this is actually a fold; early in a 9 player STT is one of those places it's OK to decide you should "wait for a better spot".

NickyOD

RoundTower wrote:

It's actually slightly worse than that, because you are going to be behind in the side pot (your flush cards are dead). I didnt put it into the calculator but I'm delighted to see it's almost exactly 33-33-33. I think this is actually a fold; early in a 9 player STT is one of those places it's OK to decide you should "wait for a better spot".

Agreed. In SnGs at every buy-in there are players who will at some point make a mistake you can capitalise on.

RoundTower

I meant because of the prize structure, but at least we agree you can pass up any edge you have here.