Fold, Call or All-in? (HH)

NickyOD

shorty has been pushing a lot.

NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:17916097 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Friday, December 02, 13:35:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 67812 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 6: nickianthony ( $5160 )
Seat 1: NickyOD ( $3050 )
Seat 3: badbeats_com ( $1790 )
Trny:17916097 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)

Dealt to NickyOD [ 9c 9s ]

badbeats_com is all-In [1790]
nickianthony calls [1590].
NickyOD ??????

willis

I voted allin but still not sure. His flat call could be ideally 667788, or something like AJ,QK etc and hes not goin anywhere to your allin. However i think your ahead of him but its all about whether or not u wanna sit for 2nd or go for nearly a guaranteed 1st place here. Also if he wins the pot from both of you you get 2nd, so yeah i think allin...no wait fold...no wait allin...its a toughie!1 of the maths experts will work it out

roryc

foldy foldy foldy

Sinfonia

i'd push it in here.

p.s. glad you enjoy my Teddy KGB quote so much!

Vikings

....misread original post...

shoutman

fold, i think no matter the result it can be beneficial to you. If shorty doubles up it puts you all around same stack so out play them and you got it hehe.

If shorty goes you have guaranteed second and about less then a quarter of chips so you are still very much in it. I wouldnt risk it to be honest

Rnger

the only times your asking for advice is on judgement calls! anything but call would seem right to me, either fold or all-in.

edit: just to clarify, if you push and the CL wins the whole hand BUT the shortstack beats you also, what is the outcome? You take 2nd because you went into the hand with more chips right?

Lex

Rnger wrote:

the only times your asking for advice is on judgement calls! anything but call would seem right to me, either fold or all-in.

I wouldnt agree with this 100%. You have to at least consider the possibility that if you call and the chip lead is smart enough, ye will check it down with to the river. But obv that does put shorty into the chip-lead if he wins!
I voted fold.

Lex

Rnger wrote:

edit: just to clarify, if you push and the CL wins the whole hand BUT the shortstack beats you also, what is the outcome? You take 2nd because you went into the hand with more chips right?

Correct.

kincsem

I assume you are in the last three in the tourney.

Fold for a 50/50 chance to move up to 2nd.

Worst scenario is you call, then go all-in, and lose.

40% of the pack is higher that your 99. TJQKA x 4 = 20 of 50 remaining. They have 4 cards so say 4 x .4 = likely 1.6 cards held are above 99.

If all three players see five cards you will be lucky to survive. The 99 would be good against one player if there was a possibility they would fold.

Amaru

I'm not sure calling is an option here. You're committing almost half your stack to the flop, so if you lose and the small stack wins, you're in very bad shape. If you call and the CL wins, you're still in very bad shape to face him heads up. With that, i think your options are fold or raise all in, and beyond that i don't know what i'd do.

Hitman Actual

Is this a PS SNG? Do they follow a standard payout: 50%/30%/20%? (Dont play PS).

It's a tough one alright, but I think I fold as I dont think you win often enough here for it to be profitable (either CEV or $EV). But I'd love to see the maths, as it looks like a good example of a CEV/$EV calculation.

NickyOD

lenny_leonard wrote:

Is this a PS SNG? Do they follow a standard payout: 50%/30%/20%? (Dont play PS).

It's a tough one alright, but I think I fold as I dont think you win often enough here for it to be profitable (either CEV or $EV). But I'd love to see the maths, as it looks like a good example of a CEV/$EV calculation.

This is a Party Poker SnG. 10 players start. Blinds go up every 10 hands. I can't remember if they were about to go up again but I don't think so. payouts are 250/150/100

Amaru

Any idea of the pushing range of the short stack, or the calling range of the CL?

Culchie

Fold, can't see 99 being still ahead at the close of business here with 2 players in opposition.

Smooth call as well from CL hints 'monster' to me.

Waylander

I am going to fly in the face of popular opinion in this thread, and suggest that you flat call. I think at this level you have to hope the CL has the sense to check the hand down unless the flop hits him in the face. There is a better chance of eliminating the short stack with both of you in and you have a reasonably strong hand considering the short stack has been fiesty and the big stack has flat called.

NickyOD

Amaru wrote:

Any idea of the pushing range of the short stack, or the calling range of the CL?

I would guess the shortstack is pushing here with almost any 2 cards.

CL is probably calling with any pair. I thing he will isolate with AK/AQ/TT/JJ/QQ. I don't know if he'll get cute with KK/AA. He's probably calling with KT-KQ and JQ also.

Ste05

This is a tricky one really, without any reads at all, although he'd do it with any 2 cards, I think you'd have to put shorty on at least 1 over card, if not 2, and the small possibility of a pair, 60% of the time this pair will be less than a 9, the Big stack flat calling would have to be put on 2 over cards or a pair over 9's.....

The next question really is what will the Big stack do to your re-raise all-in, using his probable holdings, and the pot odds he'll be given after this re-raise of 1,200 he'll have to call 1,200 to win a pot of 6630 and a chance to win the tournament right here, even if he loses to NickyOD here he'll still have 2,000 chips and be heads up.... Pretty easy call for him really.

So based on that analysis you need then look at how you're 9's look in a three way pot with the above probable holdings...

And it's a marginal decision, if you were up against only 2 overs it's a great raise, if you're up against a higher pair it's not so great, then if it's against 3 live overs it's getting more marginal, etc. etc......

Very tricky decision, but after thinking about it for more time than you'd get in a tournament I think I'd fold, however in the heat of the moment I'm not sure what I'd do, probably just go with my gut instinct, but I think I'd be leaning towards folding more than pushing TBH....

Amaru

I think a fold is the right move here.

Say you fold, and the short stack wins. You all have pretty much the same stack then. Not a bad scenario if you feel you can outplay them.

Say you fold, and the chip lead wins. He has you outchipped by almost 3 to 1, not a great scenario, but consider the alternatives.

You call, committing most of your stack to the hand, praying for low cards and the chip leader having no overpair, or a 9 on the flop. If you get neither, then what? Fold? You have 4BB left. Push? Why not push preflop then?

You push preflop, which, given the ranges you've mentioned, you're in and around 28% to win. Not great, especially if the short stack has a better hand.

There could be up to 4 live overcards in play if you push, and without making your set, thats a very scary thought, especially considering that all 5 cards will definitely be seen.

I'm going to say fold, final answer.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

You push preflop, which, given the ranges you've mentioned, you're in and around 28% to win. Not great, especially if the short stack has a better hand.

Think about that, how could your equity in this pot be less than 33%. In fact if it was likely to be then there would be no question at all.

Amaru

Actually, you're right, it came back as 33% this time. Not sure what i did different than last time to give me 28%.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

Actually, you're right, it came back as 33% this time. Not sure what i did different than last time to give me 28%.

33% is far far too low.

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

33% is far far too low.

Bingo. Folding is pretty bad here IMO. I interrupted this in pokerstove but my equity is probably never going to go below 45% and thats even if the CL can get cute with AA/KK.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,514,403,514 games 27.531 secs 345,588,736 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.0738 % 17.91% 00.17% { random }
Hand 2: 34.3476 % 34.13% 00.22% { KK+, 88-22, AJs-A9s, KTs+, QJs, AJo-ATo, K9o+, QJo }
Hand 3: 47.5786 % 47.39% 00.19% { 99 }

Don't ask me why I thought calling was a good idea. You be amazed how possible it is to push people aroudn with a shortstack at these tables. Pushing is probably the right move.

***** Hand History for Game 3131694431 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:17916097 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Friday, December 02, 13:35:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 67812 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 6: nickianthony ( $5160 )
Seat 1: NickyOD ( $3050 )
Seat 3: badbeats_com ( $1790 )
Trny:17916097 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NickyOD [ 9c 9s ]
>You have options at Table 67555 Table!.
badbeats_com is all-In.
nickianthony calls [1590].
>You have options at Table 67555 Table!.
NickyOD calls [1390].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 5d, Qc ]
nickianthony checks.
NickyOD checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
nickianthony checks.
NickyOD checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Ah ]
nickianthony checks.
NickyOD checks.
nickianthony shows [ Jh, Kd ] high card ace.
NickyOD shows [ 9c, 9s ] a pair of nines.
badbeats_com doesn't show [ 5h, 8c ] a pair of fives.
NickyOD wins 5370 chips from the main pot with a pair of nines.
badbeats_com finished in third place and won $100.
badbeats_com has left the table.

Daithio

I voted for going all in, but if I just flat called I'd definitely push on this flop. Especially with position.

Waylander

I dont like bettting here. I think checking it down is a much better option, try to eliminate the 3rd man and guaruntee yourself at least 2nd. I think Nicky played the hand very well.