Final 4 tournament Scenario

NickyOD

€50+1R. 50 entrants and its down to 4. 4th pays €350. I don't know what the other payouts were but going by the prizepool I'd say 1st was €1400.

Blinds are 5K/10K. Shortstack has 26K after posting the big blind. I am the 2nd shortstack in the cutoff with 62K. The button has 82K and the SB is the tall stack with about 140K.

The blinds are going up to 8K/15K in about 8 minutes.

I pick up K9o in the cutoff.

Push?

youcantseeme

No way the short stack is gonna call you, he's committed. Even if you have him beat he could get lucky and you dont want to be the one to double him up and you'll be next out.
I would never advise sitting in you stack but in this case just be patient.

bill_ashmount

NickyOD wrote:

€50+1R. 50 entrants and its down to 4. 4th pays €350. I don't know what the other payouts were but going by the prizepool I'd say 1st was €1400.

Blinds are 5K/10K. Shortstack has 26K after posting the big blind. I am the 2nd shortstack in the cutoff with 62K. The button has 82K and the SB is the tall stack with about 140K.

The blinds are going up to 8K/15K in about 8 minutes.

I pick up K9o in the cutoff.

Push?

Ya, push.

Spiritus

Push no look.

karlh

LOL @ sig Spiritus



yeah, push it.

push it real good.

NickyOD

youcantseeme wrote:

No way the short stack is gonna call you, he's committed. Even if you have him beat he could get lucky and you dont want to be the one to double him up and you'll be next out.
I would never advise sitting in you stack but in this case just be patient.

I felt the taller stacks would probably fold some better hands so they can step up in the money. The shortstack has X-X. K-9 is a favourite over any 2 random cards so even if he calls me 100% of the time blind I will win most of the time. Even if I get called by one of the other players I can still win going in behind. It's a close one but I think the push is correct. Unfortuantey the BB woke up with A-T. It wasn't terrible. Atleast my cards were live but his hand held up.

Washout

if it was roryc with AT prolly wouldnt have held up ....just kidding lad.

id push too.....if you walk into good hand so be it.

K9o is good enough to push in this scenario imo

Imposter

I wouldn't push this. You've got all the players still to act and you'll only be called (other than by the shortstack) by a hand that's beating you. The shortstack is also very likely to call meaning you've got a race on your hands.

Let the others play the shortstack and move up the money without putting your chips in danger on such a marginal hand. You can even afford to sacrifice your blinds once so you've still got another 5 or 6 hands to make a move.

careca

I would tend to agree with imposter, think I would fold this. You have enough to prob give you one full orbit and you could always pick up the blinds for free on your own BB. I would prefer to be going in with a hand like suited connectors or a small pair. you could quite easily be called by AK, KQ or even KJ and be totally dominated.

Close one though, and really depends on how you feel at the time.

Waylander

I think I would let it go but it would mostly depend on how I felt the other players at the table were playing. Marginal decision either way though.

Culchie

"It depends" ... one of them I think.

I would have pushed to be honest (I think), but doesn't mean to say it would be right.

The Troll

i think a fold here is a better play.

Rodge

If you had of been on the button and the cutoff had folded then I would be more likely to push. At least I have one less to worry about calling me.

Psychologically speaking if an opponent in these late stages of a tournament, still having over 3/4 blinds, pushes for all his chips preflop doesnt it scream of a hand that doesnt want a call? Why not try and represent a hand that wants action?

Culchie

Rodge wrote:

If you had of been on the button and the cutoff had folded then I would be more likely to push. At least I have one less to worry about calling me.

Psychologically speaking if an opponent in these late stages of a tournament, still having over 3/4 blinds, pushes for all his chips preflop doesnt it scream of a hand that doesnt want a call? Why not try and represent a hand that wants action?

Whatever about the merits of either side of push or fold...playing poker with this hand is not a runner, it's definitely push or fold.

NickyOD

Rodge wrote:

If you had of been on the button and the cutoff had folded then I would be more likely to push. At least I have one less to worry about calling me.

Psychologically speaking if an opponent in these late stages of a tournament, still having over 3/4 blinds, pushes for all his chips preflop doesnt it scream of a hand that doesnt want a call? Why not try and represent a hand that wants action?

What do you expect someone with 3 blinds left to do? limp in? I will never ever be blinded off in a tournament. If I have less than 10BBs left I will just push.

I am uncertain if the above scenario is +EV but it is very close. If I fold here will have just over 3 blinds left when the blinds go up so I would probably push with any hand down to 9T suited here.

handsfree

cut off here is utg. no push. wait and try and bully the big stacks. they tend to just hang about without risking much and wait for the small stacks to knock eachother out.

Culchie

handsfree wrote:

cut off here is utg. no push. wait and try and bully the big stacks. they tend to just hang about without risking much and wait for the small stacks to knock eachother out.

Whilst to fold or to push have their merits. "Waiting" around for a hand better than K9 when you have an 'M' of 4 is flawed logic and not one of the merits.

The UTG argument is not really relevant with 4 players, as all the play is taken out of the hand with a push. You can counter act this argument with the 'gap concept' of being first to enter the pot, and need a better hand to call than to raise et...

The only thing that would stop me from pushing here is if I picked up some information that would lead me to think someone has a monster.

Sounds like Nicky found trouble and kicked a few tyres on the way home, but you have to win a tournament, it is not given to you.
For every once he gets called in this situiation, I'd say he get through 4 times.

careca

Culchie wrote:

For every once he gets called in this situiation, I'd say he get through 4 times.

by the big stacks, yes, but the shortstack (BB) is calling every time in this situation.

Culchie

careca wrote:

by the big stacks, yes, but the shortstack (BB) is calling every time in this situation.

Yes he is.....with anything, I like my K9 even more.

Imposter

Culchie wrote:

Yes he is.....with anything, I like my K9 even more.

Why? You are putting 36k of your 62k stack on the line for a race. At best he has a 9 or a K in his hand with a worse kicker.

bmc

Imposter wrote:

Why? You are putting 36k of your 62k stack on the line for a race. At best he has a 9 or a K in his hand with a worse kicker.

He needs a race! Preferably one where he might be slightly ahead. This looks like it.

GAAAAAMMMMMMBBBBBBLLLLLLEEEE!!!!

Culchie

I think you misunderstand me Imposter, the shorttack has to call with anything, be it 3 7o, 2,J whatever it has to call with anything.

I fancy my K9 over random hand any day of the week.

The other two have to have a monster to call Nicky.

NickyOD

careca wrote:

by the big stacks, yes, but the shortstack (BB) is calling every time in this situation.

He is calling every time with a random hand. K-9 beats a random hand probably close to 60% of the time and I have an overlay of 5K on my pot odds if both the big stacks fold. If I'm in the small blind here I should be putting the shorty allin with Q7, maybe even J6 or better.

NickyOD

handsfree wrote:

cut off here is utg. no push. wait and try and bully the big stacks. they tend to just hang about without risking much and wait for the small stacks to knock eachother out.

We are all shortstacked. Waiting around is suicide.

The real argument is whether or not the push is +EV which is dificult to calculate. However I believe it may even be correct to push here even if it is marginally -EV because I will be in the BB next hand and the blinds are about to go up leaving me crippled with zero pushing power.

Imposter

He needs a race! Preferably one where he might be slightly ahead. This looks like it.

With 2 more still to act before the shortstack! He might be ahead. If he's called by someone else he's sure to be behind.

Culchie wrote:

I think you misunderstand me Imposter, the shorttack has to call with anything, be it 3 7o, 2,J whatever it has to call with anything.

Actually he doesn't. If one of the other 2 call and the shortstack has crap, it would make sense for him to fold. It's also possible that he would fold some of the worst hands anyway (whether he's right to or not is another story but i've seen it happen).

Rodge

NickyOD wrote:

What do you expect someone with 3 blinds left to do? limp in? I will never ever be blinded off in a tournament. If I have less than 10BBs left I will just push.

I am uncertain if the above scenario is +EV but it is very close. If I fold here will have just over 3 blinds left when the blinds go up so I would probably push with any hand down to 9T suited here.

Limping in is never an option here. I know that. What I am saying is that would raising to 3X BB look more like you have a genuine hand than dumping all in?

Although reading further its obvious to me that you want a call in this spot. I wouldnt want a call here. I'd rather try and at least put the thought in the BB's head that I have a good strong hand and calling here will be suicide for him.

I dont agree that the shortstack has to call with any junk. Shortstack will survive the SB and then have another couple of hands left in him. From the shortstacks point of view calling with J2 or the like has to be -EV

NickyOD

Imposter wrote:

With 2 more still to act before the shortstack! He might be ahead. If he's called by someone else he's sure to be behind.

Of course. This is stating the obvious. But, what range of hands will they call me with. How often with they be dealt them and how often will I suck out on the range of hands they call with?

NickyOD

Rodge wrote:

From the shortstacks point of view calling with J2 or the like has to be -EV

He has to risk 26K to win 41K. Even folding complete garbage is questionble here. He is so short it is probably correct for him to make a negative EV call. Calling with 10 high should be automatic.

Culchie

Rodge wrote:

I dont agree that the shortstack has to call with any junk. Shortstack will survive the SB and then have another couple of hands left in him. From the shortstacks point of view calling with J2 or the like has to be -EV

If shortstack want to win the tournament he has to call.

He can't let a pot of min 67K (N'OD 26+5SB+10 BB+26 call) waft under his nose when he has less than 3BB's left. (26k call into a 41k pot)

If shortstack doesn't call with anything in these cisrcumstances on a final table it is very very weak.

Rodge

yes if it was a cash game with deep stacks its an auto call.
But I think that because its for his tourney life that he will be a little more selective as to what he can call with. It depends on a lot more than whether or not odds dictate a call. EG has he been sitting there for a few rounds quietly moving up the money? Isnt he more likely to fold if this is the case?

I just think that if you can put that little bit extra doubt in his head that your chances of getting a fold may increase a small bit.

NickyOD

Rodge wrote:

yes if it was a cash game with deep stacks its an auto call.
But I think that because its for his tourney life that he will be a little more selective as to what he can call with. It depends on a lot more than whether or not odds dictate a call. EG has he been sitting there for a few rounds quietly moving up the money? Isnt he more likely to fold if this is the case?

I just think that if you can put that little bit extra doubt in his head that your chances of getting a fold may increase a small bit.

Players who get overly concerned with their tourney life never win tournaments.You need a bit of gambole!

Rodge

I know that and personally I would have to call with any junk. But if there is a .5% chance that my opponent is overly concerned with his tourney life then isnt it correct to try and exploit that minimal edge?

RoundTower

Rodge wrote:

yes if it was a cash game with deep stacks its an auto call.

What? The only reason it's an autocall is because it is a tournament with microscopic stacks. I agree some players will fold here some % of the time, but I don't think it makes much difference if you push all in or try to make a suspicious-looking raise. No need to try to be fancy.

And I think it's an easy push.

DapperGent

I would push. I'm actually unsure if it's good or not but I would definately push. Amazingly I have seen people in the BB's position fold, I wouldn't even look at my cards.

Hitman Actual

DapperGent wrote:

Amazingly I have seen people in the BB's position fold, I wouldn't even look at my cards.

Agreed, I'm calling blind as well, assuming that it's been folded around to me in BB. But if the all-in is called before me, as happened here, then I probably fold as I have a great chance to move up in the money with no risk. (EV-wise, this may be wrong???).

Regarding calling blind, it's actually very marginal EV-wise, though. Assuming that it's folded around, BB needs to win more than ~39% of the time for it to be +EV. So a random hand against Nickys likely range is right on this margin, or maybe doesn't even reach it.

Also, I push with the K9 every time here.

Hectorjelly

Its a lot less profitable to push in this type of situation when you know you are getting called. Most of the profit comes from the times they fold, not when you get called by a hand which you are a slight favourite over. I would fold this. I think its marginal though. If the BB had even 2 bbs more i think Id push, or if he was making some bad folds.

Hitman Actual

Hectorjelly wrote:

Its a lot less profitable to push in this type of situation when you know you are getting called. Most of the profit comes from the times they fold, not when you get called by a hand which you are a slight favourite over. I would fold this. I think its marginal though. If the BB had even 2 bbs more i think Id push, or if he was making some bad folds.

Fair enough, but does the fact that you're BB next affect your decision? And will you be forced to play your BB regardless if you do fold, with a probable worse hand?

Hectorjelly

lenny_leonard wrote:

Fair enough, but does the fact that you're BB next affect your decision? And will you be forced to play your BB regardless if you do fold, with a probable worse hand?

You have 6 blinds left, so will have 5 when you post. Who knows, maybe youll get a walk!