EPSILON (Twenty-Nine)

billy the squid

One more?



NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/291505.shtml

NHC Forcast Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL2905W5+gif/150544W_sm.gif

All Models (will appear here shortly)
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_29.gif

sirpsycho

Lol

Mothman

Season ends tomorrow, though hasn't stopped Dec storms in past.

Danno

In all fairness!

Mother Nature is taking the biscuit.

billy the squid

This is going to be more of a fish than delta was, at least delta gave the canaries a bit of wind. Epsilon is predicted to do a U-turn before heading off into the north atlantic as an extratropical storm.

sirpsycho

billy the squid wrote:

One more?



NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/291505.shtml

NHC Forcast Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL2905W5+gif/150544W_sm.gif

All Models (will appear here shortly)
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_29.gif

Yup!

..EPSILON BECOMES YET ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE RECORD BREAKING
2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1220
MILES...1965 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY... BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 28 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 48.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

sirpsycho

Dale

erm... Epsilon... erm... That's heading in our direction ain't it ??

(However it looks like it's gonna be a tad too north for us?)

billy the squid

Epsilon is a hurricane according to the latest advisory. I'm a little out of condition to be editing maps will do so tomorrow, however the links in Post #1 will be up to date with the latest info.

Yes dale it looks to be heading out our way, most likely an extratratropical event. but nonetheless it will bring us some sort of wind.

billy the squid

epsilon has strengthened slightly.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.

billy the squid

...EPSILON REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST OR ABOUT 725
MILES...1170 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY.

just refuses to die...

Danno

Will that head for Ireland???

billy the squid

doubtful, there is supposed to be a blocking high pressure system over the Azores which will push it south and then it will head southwest toward the antilles islands as a Tropical depression.

billy the squid

more records looking shakey

EPSILON IS A HURRICANE AGAIN AT 04/1500 UTC... NEAR 34.3N 39.2W
OR ABOUT 725 MILES WSW OF THE AZORES. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. EPSILON IS MOVING E 10 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC. DESPITE SSTS BETWEEN 70-72F... EPSILON
HAS AGAIN STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED IN THE EYEWALL WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE PERSISTING...
THOUGH RECENTLY THE CONVECTION ON THE E SIDE HAS BECOME WEAKER.
EPSILON IS WEDGED BETWEEN A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E AND
AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W...HELPING TO KEEP IT FROM TURNING
EXTRATROPICAL. OF NOTE IS THAT IT NOW TIED FOR THE 2ND
STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN DECEMBER WITH NICOLE OF
1998. #2 OF 1925 IS THE LEADER WITH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT. IF
EPSILON SURVIVES INTO TOMORROW AS A HURRICANE IT COULD BE THE
LONGEST-LASTING HURRICANE IN DECEMBER.

sirpsycho

Still a Cat1 hurricane

billy the squid

Looks like epsilon has broken the record for the longest surviving hurricane in December.

Just a thought, Do they go onto the 06 list of names after November 30trh or do they do it on January 1.

sirpsycho

This should answer your question:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E16.html

Summary here:

The hurricane season is defined as June 1 through November 30. An early hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months prior to the start of the season, and a late hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months after the season. With these criteria the earliest observed hurricane in the Atlantic was on March 7, 1908, while the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954, the second “Alice” of that year which persisted as a hurricane until January 5, 1955. The earliest hurricane to strike the United States was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. The latest hurricane to strike the U. S. was late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida. (Contribution from Blake et al. 2005.)

ps. Still a hurricane Epsilon at 75mph at the moment!

billy the squid

thanks for that

as of 03Z epsilon is...a hurricane

National Hurricane Centre wrote:

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS.

Epsilon's days are numbered...or are thay?

billy the squid

Now lost hurricane status. looks like the 05 season will be a thing of the past in 24 hours or so.

unless we get Zeta.

Danno

What a season though... what official records were broken???

billy the squid

and the season has ended.

it seems that the forcaster Avila tends to get a little emotional in his forcasts.

...EPSILON WEAKENING RAPIDLY...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...IT IS ABOUT TIME...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1115 MILES...1795 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...26.4 N... 40.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND EPSILON IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION OR THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10
KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. I HOPE THIS
IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.

fatherdougalmag

And the season review is here.