Tough tournament hand (wasn't my problem)

DapperGent

More than five hours into a large online MTT everyone is in the money with payouts starting to become worthwhile. Less than 40 players left, $14,000 for first, chip leader and two of the other largest stacks are at the same table.

Can't find the hand history so numbers are approximate but should be fairly accurate. Chip leader was moved to the table two orbits ago and hasn't played a hand, BB is very aggressive but has always shown a winner when called.

Stacks: CL 210,000, You 160,000, BB 150,000. Average about 60,000 or less.
Blinds: 500-1000 with ante.

Chip leader opens to 4000 in MP you call from two to his left with 22 all fold to BB who flat calls.

Flop is 872 with two clubs. BB checks and the chip leader leads out for 10k, you flat call. BB reraises all in for 130k more or so into the 35k pot, chip leader calls after dwelling. Is it possible to fold bottom set here?

Results:

I'm sitting pretty in the BB with top set, chip leader is having a total meltdown with QT of clubs (maybe he'd been dealt 72o for two orbits or something but I don't get how someone can not play a hand for two orbits and then play like this) bottom set called in an instant and I tripled through.

I felt a little sorry for him. Then got to thinking that if I was in spot I might have been disappointed with my call given the size of the stacks colliding, it's the third nuts after all. I probably would have called but I think he has to think about folding

karlh

what tourney?

did you win it?

i don't know if i could fold the bottom set here tbh

DapperGent

Didn't make the last 18.

handsfree

i would find it very hard to fold here, my thinking would be that the monster over bet could be a str8 flush draw giving him about 16 outs while the caller i'd have to put on an over pair like kings or aces so my feeling is that ur probably still ahead but theres a lot of cards that can hurt you. i'd go all in if you get out drawn by the BB at least you have some consulation with the chip leads chips as he only has two outs and u wont be in bad shape only 20000 behind the chip average and 40 big blinds

Amaru

If somebody flops a higher set than me, then i'm more than happy to pay them off. Its one of those things in poker that's not likely to happen enough to worry about, but will eventually happen. Thats poker!

cardshark202

The BB's raise seems like a protection raise with 78(poor play if so imo) or possibly a set of 7's or 8's. In fact a set of 8's or 7's is a very likely holding from the BB here while the dwelling from the chip leader seems more like an overpair of if he is very poor, AK clubs. It is also possible that the BB could be playing 56c, 69c or 9Tc but it seems unlikely he would risk his tournament when a big stack with less than a set.

In short, folding bottom set here is possible especially after the chip leader has called as well. I would probably try to put both the BB and CL on hands that I beat and call though.

willis

Amaru wrote:

If somebody flops a higher set than me, then i'm more than happy to pay them off. Its one of those things in poker that's not likely to happen enough to worry about, but will eventually happen. Thats poker!

WTF??This is an easy fold, you have invested very little of ur stack in the pot and you have a huge stack in comparison to the blinds. What the fuk do you think these players have, the only combined hands you could be up against(that youre ahead of) is if both have overpairs(great) or both have flush draws(doubt it) or one of each(youre not a huge favourite here)Simple simple fold imo

handsfree

willis wrote:

WTF??This is an easy fold,

don't agree with this because its these marginal calls that make the difference between winning and losing the tournament. winning here would leave the player in a great position to win the tournament with 400k chips an all in loss against BB but win against chip lead would leave him slightly below the average and i'm assuming the player is quite good considering hes well above the average. however if he just wants to place a fold, is an option

Amaru

willis wrote:

WTF??This is an easy fold, you have invested very little of ur stack in the pot and you have a huge stack in comparison to the blinds. What the fuk do you think these players have, the only combined hands you could be up against(that youre ahead of) is if both have overpairs(great) or both have flush draws(doubt it) or one of each(youre not a huge favourite here)Simple simple fold imo

Are you thinking of Omaha or something? Do you have any idea how rare set over set is? They could easily have top 2 pair, an over pair, or at worst, a combined flush and straight draw. You're only behind to the last one. This is by no means an easy fold.

a-k-47

so what happened, i think u called ur set and got suked out... what happened? lets see a hand history.

DapperGent

Lads results are in the spoiler at the bottom of the first post!

I was in the BB with 88 and tripled through.

handsfree

nice work. should have just tried to cruise to the final table because you'd have still been in a nice position even if a few people had caught up.

Hectorjelly

willis wrote:

WTF??This is an easy fold, you have invested very little of ur stack in the pot and you have a huge stack in comparison to the blinds. What the fuk do you think these players have, the only combined hands you could be up against(that youre ahead of) is if both have overpairs(great) or both have flush draws(doubt it) or one of each(youre not a huge favourite here)Simple simple fold imo

how many sets have you folded on the flop with no flush or straight possible?

ocallagh

I don't think people put enough value on their tournament life in MTTs..

At these stages of a tournament, even if you think you might be ahead, it is sometimes worthwhile to lay down a strong hand. If I thought CL was on a flush draw I might even lay down top set here if the field was weak enough. I don't thin I've ever done this but if I somehowknew the CL was on a flush draw I'd consider it..

I'm not saying it is easy to get away from bottom set, but you have got to think about all the possible hands out there, There are only 3 hands I have the BB on here.. Middle set, top set or top two (unless of course the BB is a total fish... which we know he is not in this case). 2 of those hands have you completely dominated. Other hands out there include overpairs, a flush draw will see you packing your bag 1/3 of the time..

At this stage of the tournament you have a large amount of chips.. You should be taking on small stacks and betting them out of pots using their tournament life to your advantage.. With a CL against 90% of the players you have a serious advantage in most of the pots you play.

If I go up against the CL, or 2 CL's of an MTT I want to make sure I have the nuts.. and if I thought a flush draw was out there I might just fold.

Brunson talked about how he was one of the CL's a few years back in the WSOP. It was mid-way thru the tournament and another CL put in a hefty raise.. Brunson loooked down and saw KK. He threw them away. He wasn't arsed gambling against another CL at that time and I suppose I have started to take that approach..

willis

Hectorjelly wrote:

how many sets have you folded on the flop with no flush or straight possible?

There was a flush possible. Also 7 8 on board so if someone called with 9 10 preflop there is easily a straight draw available. If the board was not coordinated and didnt have 2 of the same suit on it then this decision is tougher, however i agree with Ocallaghs point about tournament life at stake. Are you telling me Hector that with over 100bbs still left that you would call here with bottom set?I really think its an easy fold in this scenario

NickyOD

DapperGent wrote:

Is it possible to fold bottom set here?

It's a lot easier to fold it if you raise the flop. but the way its been played I probably call.

Waylander

I think Iwould have raised the chip leaders post flop bet with bottom set. If someone came back over the top I think I would have laid it down, butwould not say it is an easy fold.

Hectorjelly

willis wrote:

There was a flush possible. Also 7 8 on board so if someone called with 9 10 preflop there is easily a straight draw available. If the board was not coordinated and didnt have 2 of the same suit on it then this decision is tougher,

Your thinking is completely screwed up here. First of all there are 2 clubs on board, so that means a flush IS NOT YET POSSIBLE. A flush draw is possible.

Secondly the more draws on the board the harder it gets to fold any sort of hand at all, because the chance of someone semi bluffing increases.

willis wrote:

however i agree with Ocallaghs point about tournament life at stake. Are you telling me Hector that with over 100bbs still left that you would call here with bottom set?I really think its an easy fold in this scenario

This is like a thread from the twilight zone - Ive never folded a set in a tournament fearing another set. I remember playing cash game hands and slowing down fearing a higher set but never folding.

Hectorjelly

ocallagh wrote:

At these stages of a tournament, even if you think you might be ahead, it is sometimes worthwhile to lay down a strong hand. If I thought CL was on a flush draw I might even lay down top set here if the field was weak enough. I don't thin I've ever done this but if I somehowknew the CL was on a flush draw I'd consider it..

This is terrible- a set is a 75% favourite over a flush draw. Would you lay down KK as well fearing A2o? Because Kings are only a 71% favourite. Even aces are only a 79% fav over 67s, so maybe we should fold them as well.

cardshark202

ocallagh wrote:

At these stages of a tournament, even if you think you might be ahead, it is sometimes worthwhile to lay down a strong hand. If I thought CL was on a flush draw I might even lay down top set here if the field was weak enough. I don't thin I've ever done this but if I somehowknew the CL was on a flush draw I'd consider it..

:eek: :eek: This is shocking logic. Do you like winning tournaments or bubbling in them after folding the nuts on any draw-heavy board several times and then losing your shortstack on a coinflip after being forced to push with AQo.

willis

so hector you're in the money here with a very nice stack with plenty, you've invested only 14k in this pot, do you really feel this is the time to get all your chips in?do u think this is the best opportunity you will get? Most of the time i will call but stack sizes are very important here imo. Thats the main reason i fold is because ive so many chips and there is no need to get inolved in big pots if you believe you are better than your opponents

DapperGent

Personally if I had been there with bottom set I would have insta called, that's not to say in hindsight that I think it's the correct play.

Personally I think that I (the guy with top set) played the hand badly, my reasoning at the time was the CL had AA or KK and was the sort of player unable to put it down and that if I made a decent raise and he called he might be unwilling to call a pot sized bet on the turn even if it wasn't one of the many cards which killed my action making a possible straight or flush, I put other guy on some kind of a draw which wouldn't be able to stand a large bet. So I read them both totally wrong though I don't mind that as I can't see what else I could put them on.

All that said though I think a decent sized raise from me is a better option, a push folds too many hands which my pot commit themselves if given the chance and sane person would have folded AA in the CL's position there I dunno what sort of psychosis compelled him to call with the third nut draw. All in all I'm not too happy with battering my chips into the pot there.

Back to the possible fold. The same way I see it is that my bet is telling him exactly what I have and that if I don't have it then the chip leader's call represents him saying that he has the nuts. I don't think there can be too much arguement there my monstrous over bet and the chipleader's call represent quite concretely people saying loud and clear that they have the nuts.

It's up to bottom set guy to decide whether one or both of us is lieing. The only thing that makes this hand note worthy is the chip stacks in play, it's usually ludicrous to consider folding a set (on a non straightening no flushing board) unless you have over 100 BB. Everyone has a good bit more than that here and at the business end of a tournament too. While we're not seeing something like some putting in a fourth raise it's still some serious action.

I think it's a call in general but I don't think it should be an easy one.

Hectorjelly

willis wrote:

so hector you're in the money here with a very nice stack with plenty, you've invested only 14k in this pot, do you really feel this is the time to get all your chips in?do u think this is the best opportunity you will get? Most of the time i will call but stack sizes are very important here imo. Thats the main reason i fold is because ive so many chips and there is no need to get inolved in big pots if you believe you are better than your opponents

Does your stack size change the chance that you are beaten? No. You call or fold this based on whether your ahead or not. Whether your better or not than your opponents is completely irrelevant for this hand, and the fact that it keeps being mentioned over and over again in different guises shows that you are not thinking about the hand the right way. A set is a great hand and a great opportunity, and thinking of folding it because you dont want to get involved is crazy.

ocallagh

cardshark202 wrote:

This is shocking logic. Do you like winning tournaments or bubbling in them after folding the nuts on any draw-heavy board several times and then losing your shortstack on a coinflip after being forced to push with AQo.

If I fold I am still amongst the CL's and I figure I have a very good chance of making the final table with a healthy stack. AND I only fold decent hands when I am one of the CL's and I'm up against another CL with a few more chips than me.

And no I don't like bubbling and I tend not to bubble in online MTTs too often.. My MTT results from April are online.. http://www.absolutebluff.com/personal/logs/ppp_multi/ocallagh/MTTPPP.htm

Hectorjelly wrote:

This is terrible- a set is a 75% favourite over a flush draw. Would you lay down KK as well fearing A2o? Because Kings are only a 71% favourite. Even aces are only a 79% fav over 67s, so maybe we should fold them as well.

First off I didn't say I would fold a 70 - 75% shot of doubling up at this stage, I said I would consider it. Under certain circumstances I would fold. If I was playing well, had a very healthy chip stack as 2nd CL and I felt I could cruise to the final table then YES - I would fold when I had a 30% chance of busting out at this stage! Why is this so tough to comprehend?

And that's talking about having the nuts on the flop.. 222 is a different story all together. In this situation I would seriously consider folding.

And I know you can make my logic sound ridiculous by using AA as an example.. More than likely if the CL has re-raised me or put me all in he has KK, QQ or AKs so it's a bit different because here you have between an 83% chance and 93.5% chance of winning the hand.

willis

ocallagh wrote:

First off I didn't say I would fold a 70 - 75% shot of doubling up at this stage, I said I would consider it. Under certain circumstances I would fold. If I was playing well, had a very healthy chip stack as 2nd CL and I felt I could cruise to the final table then YES - I would fold when I had a 30% chance of busting out at this stage! Why is this so tough to comprehend?

agree 100%.Cash game ill pay the higher set off, in a tourny with stacks this big im happy to fold

Hectorjelly

ocallagh wrote:

I would fold when I had a 30% chance of busting out at this stage! Why is this so tough to comprehend?

I find it hard to comprehend because its completely wrong IMO. Being perpetually paranoid about busting out is - EV, and to even consider folding top set under any circumstances is just that.

roryc

I would very rarely fold bottom set here. You have to take your chances in a tournament, and if you get beaten by top set so be it. Its the difference between playing to make the money and playing to win.

The last time i played the fitz 270 I had built up my stack to about 20,000. I flopped middle set on a 10 4 5 board with two hearts. Two all-ins ahead of me and I actually thought about folding because I didn't need to commit. But I was playing TO WIN so it would be silly to fold with those odds. I was up against AK hearts and.... top set.

Two hands later I get JJ and Joe goes all in. he turns over 10 10 and hits trips on the flop..... ah well. All the same if I was to play the hand again I would call every time. I would probably have called with 44, although it would have been a tougher decision.

I think that you should obviously take into account whether you need to commit or not, but flopping bottom set won't lose often enough to validate folding just because you dont need to commit

NickyOD

This thread is getting ridiculous. You coould argue folding top set on the bubble in a satelite when you can blind into the money but folding it in a tournament that does not have a flat payout structure is completely mental.