Reading Players (HH)

Ste05

OK here's a hand I would like opinions on. I know I'm always the one giving out about background info, so here goes. I had been at this table for about 40 hands or so the Villian in this piece had been playing quite tight not really playing many hands and usually being quite aggressive Pre-Flop and passively post flop. I on the other hand had been playing quite aggressively on all streets, not a maniac, but picking spots well and bluffing on scare cards falling if I didn't have the hand. I had not showed a hand yet but thus far had bullied a couple of players off pots, it looked like I was chasing draws expensively and hitting but I wasn't.....:D

OK here we go, if there's any questions about background just let me know. I won't say yet what I had him on come the turn bet

- vbg8vbg8 sitting in seat 7 with $59.95
- Poker_Brat11 sitting in seat 10 with $69.50

Estethia posted the small blind - $0.25
aaandrew123 posted the big blind - $0.50
** Dealing card to Poker_Brat11: 8h, 8c
kusettaja232 folded
vbg8vbg8 raised - $1.50
2 folds
Poker_Brat11 called - $1.50
Texxer folded
SeekChips called - $1.50
2 folds

** Dealing the flop: 9d, 6d, 8d - POT = 5.25
vbg8vbg8 bet - $5.00
Poker_Brat11 called - $5.00
SeekChips folded

** Dealing the turn: 10s - POT = 15.25
vbg8vbg8 bet - $27.00
Poker_Brat11 called - $27.00

** Dealing the river: 5h - POT = 69.25
vbg8vbg8 bet - $25.00
Poker_Brat11 ??????

Lafortezza

Raise the flop. I think you pretty much have to call the river considering the stacks and pot size. I can't see many hands you're beating apart from AA or KK with the Ad/Kd

The C Kid

If you decide your calling the overbet the turn, surely you must push there and then and don't allow him to spike a diamond.

Bozzer

Raise the flop.
Turn call only makes sense if villain is such a nit that he will only call with a made straight/flush or if he’ll put you squarely on a diamond draw and so he will fire again on a blank river with AK/AQ.
But villain will probably call off his last $26 on the turn with AdA/KdK or maybe AK one diamond/QdQ.
You have to call this river because you have made it look like you are drawing to the flush and so you’ve opened yourself up to be bluffed.
You only need a 21% chance that villain is bluffing or even has a poorly played AA/KK

Ste05

OK before this gets out of hand I'll tell you why I did this, and then see if anyone agrees or was I just a donk.....

His bet on the flop looked like he wanted to just find out some info, he was generally passive Post Flop and since it looked like I was hitting draws and betting people out of hands, I thought he'd put me on a str8 or flush draw after I called here ... I had been betting when it looked like I had a made hand (usually I was) so a re-raise here would have killed the action.

My reasoning was this - Why would he bet if he had a straight or flush, he'd let me do the betting, he was a solid enough player and I looked like a lucky SOB so far......

On the turn this over bet screamed out to me that he was protecting something like a high pair or the like and wanted to really charge me for drawing or take down the pot now with his over pair etc. I couldn't see him raising with JQ in this spot (i.e. Pre-Flop) because he was playing tightly. So I just called again. I might have got all his money in there and then but I decided to let him bet again.

On the river it was an easy call TBH, The main decision was made on the turn.....
Any way he turned over KQo with no diamond :rolleyes: :rolleyes: ,

Now what I was wondering was is this reasoning OK or am I just a donkey, I know this worked out well, but I don't like to look at results so much but do like to make sure my thinking was correct.......

Bozzer

You seem to be playing this hand to maximise your winnings against a pure bluff.
You should be more worried about a turn card killing your action(or killing your hand) than a flop raise.
There are flops to slowplay on and this isn't one of them. You should be concentrating more on protecting your hand and maximising profit against villain's strong hands here.

I think you also probably underestimate the amount of hands which will call your flop raise.
If your sure your flop raise will get villain to lay down so often than you should be bluff raising more flops.

Your turn play isn't terrible but I would like it a lot more if the stacks were deeper and you were very sure villian would put you on a flush draw once you called.
With deeper stacks villain has a better chance of getting away from some decent made hands once you push turn, but in this hand he will be getting 3.66:1 if you push and so he will call with a lot of big pairs + flush draw(your read was that he was protecting a big pair).
Again you seem to be choosing the play that maximises expectation against
a pure bluff but not necessarily against his whole hand range.

NickyOD

Calling on the flop is perfectly fine. Push or fold on the turn. Calling the turn and then folding the river would just be silly.

Hectorjelly

Its a lot easier to get away from an overpair on the turn and river than the flop, so I tend to think its better to raise on the flop. However if you are against someone who will bet their entire stack off then just calling is better (even on multiple streets) than raising because it maximises you expectation agains his range of hands. Crucially though the pot must be big enough so that they will
pot commit themselves by the river.

In this case I think a raise on the turn would be bad because your overrepresenting your hand