Tournament Hand Question

ollyk1

I don't normally post hand questions so if I leave any details out that you would consider relevant please ask me for them.

This hand is from a few weeks ago in the Friday night Fitz 50 +50 scalps game. The prize pool on the night I'd estimate at ~8k (approximately 85 players at the start of the night). We are down to three tables of 9 players with the average stack of 12k and the blindsare 400/800.

I've just taken two hits to my what was an average stack. Bet TT into KK in the BB I folded to an all-in reraise and showed and he showed the kings. Then I raced with a short stack where my JJ was up against KJ and lost 2500. Now I have 6500 and its two hands later and I'm on the button.

The table in general is weak and I have a strong image (well I like to think so anyway but those of you who know me can say better) there are no big stacks at the table but there are on the other tables.

One limper in utg+1 and I have 44. I know the limper, hes a guy who plays his hand and is tight. He will call you down when hes got a decent holding but he's not prone to mad bluffs and hes a survivor. I chopped a tournie with him a few weeks earlier when he had a bit of a chip lead when guys had gone all-in and he'd woken up with QQ and KK and AK and the like. He has 11k at the start of this hand.

My first thought was to fold. But I know the sb is tilting and she has a pair. I know this player very well and have a very good read. The SB has 5k. The BB is very passive and I think my implied odds are massive in this hand because I think I can manipulate this hand post flop with my position and knowledge of the players.

I flat call.

SB completes and the BB checks.

Flop comes T54.

The blinds quickly check and utg+1 bets 1000.

I don't like the 1000 bet as I think he bets more with TPTK. He could have JJ.
I can't put him on QQ+ as he makes a standard raise with this.

What's your move? You think that if you go all-in you can manipulate the SB to call with her 77-99 hand.

The Troll

I'd push hoping to get called by an overpair or AT, while also hoping that someone hasn't made a better set

Culchie

Hmmm

You have 5.5 orbits (M's as good old Harrington would call them).

You are not yet in terrible trouble, but you do need to double up soon if you want to win this tourney.

At this stage of a tourney, and bearing in mind what you said about solid UTG limper, and SB being a calling station with a hand. I would let this go preflop. Small pairs are OK for pushing once in last chance saloon, and OK for limping when you and your opponents have large stacks in comparison to the blinds. In the middle section of tourneys (as this is) small pairs and suited connectors go down in value. You don't have the chips to play much post flop poker. Limping whilst seeming like you can see a cheap flop has put in another 15% of your stack, so it's not cheap, and 44 is hard to able to play post flop with all the overcards.

However, you didn't let it go, and you got a dream flop. If your read on your players is correct, then certainly push, based on that board, and the money in the centre, you should definitely get a caller, if not two. If the SB does have the 77-99 range, you don't want to give free cards for a set to come, or indeed if there is a low ace rag there ... the wheel.

califano

ollyk1 wrote:

What's your move? You think that if you go all-in you can manipulate the SB to call with her 77-99 hand.

You gotta just call this because with your stack you want one of the blinds to stay to increase the pot. You gotta think your ahead and will stay ahead playing the hand out. Calling is at least giving the blinds the option to call and lose some chips or even raise hopefully for you!. At this stage you cant be worried about giving someone a free card by letting them in cheap. Think about a re-raise on the next street or 2 but definately just call here.
If you reraise all in the blinds will fold and probably UTG+1 too and you still havent got that much chips and you may never see as good a hand again.
If someone makes something on the turn or river to beat you because of this play then so be it.

padser

rounders123 wrote:

At this stage you cant be worried about giving someone a free card by letting them in cheap. Think about a re-raise on the next street or 2 but definately just call here.

I really dont think giving a cheap card to anyone is the answer here. If you flat call you are giving serious excellent pot odds to SB and BB to call. A push followed by a fold will leave you with around 9k. Over 10 BB.

At the very least id like to sea you doulbing the bet to 2000 with the intention of getting the blinds to either fold or push. I dont want to play bottom set four way.

ollyk1

I don't want to respond too early to give others a chance to comment so I'll just reply on Culchie's comments on how I got in this situation.

I almost folded straight away Culchie preflop. But I know if they miss or if scare cards come down I can take this pot away from the other 3 players. Any Ace or King and I'll take the pot post flop with an all-in if its checked to me. If they catch a piece they'll let me know before I act. This was my thought process preflop - its more of a positional play than anything to with 44 tbh.

My first thoughts were fold. Pushing would be bad before the flop because I think either the SB (for reasons of tilt) or utg+1 will call (thinking I'm on tilt after taking a hit to my stack) I think they'll fold easier post flop and I'm making a "play" I guess. And as you say Culchie while I'm on a lifeline I'm not dead yet and with the passive table I can get back into this game but I think this is a situation where I can take advantage of that passivity.

I guess the problem is now I'm in the situation whats your move?;)

califano

padser wrote:

If you flat call you are giving serious excellent pot odds to SB and BB to call.

Exactly
But theres only going to be one of the blinds calling at best to a raise and a call.

padser wrote:

A push followed by a fold will leave you with around 9k. Over 10 BB.

Still nowhere in chips with 3 tables left!. How picky about such a strong hand do you want to be with this stack. Its a risky call but a risky call that should be taken in a bid to possibly more than double up.

bmc

The way I see it is that you've got to assume you're ahead here. I don't think anyone is questioning that.

Assuming that you are you want to get chips in. We don't know the size of UTG+1's stack but if you could make a raise that would pot commit him then that might be good. Folding and flat calling are out of the question.

careca

I'd be inclined to agree with Rounders here. You really want the SB or BB to come into this pot. The biggest worry in my mind would be the BB who could have an open ender, but I would take this chance. The small blind has only two outs if your read is right and I'd gladly give him a cheap card (its 1000 to call, not free). Hopefully one of them will raise and you can then reevaluate. If not as Rounders says raise it up on the turn if you know you are still ahead. At this stage you need to maximise your returns. The other thing is your image (which I would consider to be tight aggressive), so if you raise you could well frighten everyone out.

bohsman

I agree with Rounders, call on the flop push on the turn, Im assuming the flop is rainbow

ollyk1

bohsman wrote:

I agree with Rounders, call on the flop push on the turn, Im assuming the flop is rainbow

Yeah sorry it was a rainbow flop Bohsman. UTG +1 has ~11k after his bet Bmc.

Culchie

rounders123 wrote:

Exactly
But theres only going to be one of the blinds calling at best to a raise and a call.

Still nowhere in chips with 3 tables left!. How picky about such a strong hand do you want to be with this stack. Its a risky call but a risky call that should be taken in a bid to possibly more than double up.

When it gets down to the business end of a tourney, slowplaying is very definitely not recommended.

Your goal should be to encourage mistakes from other players, not give them free cards (or cheap) cards where you are giving them attractive odds to draw and hit.

Stick those chips in. It's like anything else you only get paid if your opponents have a decent hand anyway, but you need to make sure you don't let them turn that decent hand into a winning hand without paying the full and maximum price.

bohsman

Culchie wrote:

When it gets down to the business end of a tourney, slowplaying is very definitely not recommended.

Your goal should be to encourage mistakes from other players, not give them free cards (or cheap) cards where you are giving them attractive odds to draw and hit.

Stick those chips in. It's like anything else you only get paid if your opponents have a decent hand anyway, but you need to make sure you don't let them turn that decent hand into a winning hand without paying the full and maximum price.

If Ollie is right about the 77-99 behind him chances are a flat call will convince 77-99 to push as its not the worst flop for that hand

Culchie

bohsman wrote:

If Ollie is right about the 77-99 behind him chances are a flat call will convince 77-99 to push as its not the worst flop for that hand

If he just calls it gives the blinds lovely odds as well.

Interested in how this hand turns out. SB with the completion or BB could easily be sitting there with A3 or something and can complete the wheel.

I don't want 4 players in this pot at this stage of the tourney when I've 33% of my chips in, which will be the case with a flat call (1000+800).

There's 4200 in the middle now, good enough for me to push here, and if I'm quite sure I'll get a caller as well with 9K in the pot if I do push.

Hectorjelly

ollyk1 wrote:

But I know if they miss or if scare cards come down I can take this pot away from the other 3 players. Any Ace or King and I'll take the pot post flop with an all-in if its checked to me.

ollyk1 wrote:

I think my implied odds are massive

Wishfill thinking? These both cant be true.

The Troll

A flat call here is a suicidal move in my book. There's a big straight draw there. I would be almost certain that you'll get a caller here if you push as UTG+1 is representing some form of hand. I don't think now is the time to slow play this hand. There's enough chips in the pot and based on the reads on the other players, 1 of them is guaranteed to call your push with top pair or an overpair.

careca

Culchie wrote:

If he just calls it gives the blinds lovely odds as well.

.

How is he giving the blinds lovely odds. If he calls there will be 5.2K in the pot.

The SB has to put in 1000 to win 5200 (5.2/1). His odds of hitting his set are (47/2) or 23.5/1.

The BB will then be getting 6.2/1. If he has an open ender hes just about gettin the odds but if he has a gutshot then hes certainly not.

Or are my odds calculations way off ?

ollyk1

Em maybe I left out something in the telling of this but you all seem to be focussing on the wrong area.

I'm not worried about how to make money from this hand at all. If I go all-in I can speech play the SB to call me all-in no problem. This is because there are no scare cards from her point of view. If an Ace or King or even a Queen falls on the turn I'll lose her. If I'm playing this hand I'm going all-in because thats how I'll get the most chips in there. BB is irrelevant hes not interested. He's been slumped in his chair for the last 45 minutes bleeding chips (to me mainly) and nothing has changed in his demeanour. The utg+1 player is calling me too. My only question is am I beat??

I'm confident the SB hasn't got me beat because she bets out with 55 on the flop and she raises all in preflop with TT because its a reasonable hand in her book and she is having one of those subconsious "double me up or I want to go home" moments that players have and I know this. This is the reason I'm in the bloody hand and my implied odds were so big preflop. If an Ace had fallen she have to fold to the obvious scare card. If it looks raggy she'll call and I'll have a set was my preflop evil thought process. I won't bluff a raggy flop I've missed because she'll definitely be calling.

The utg+1 player is my problem. His bet stinks. There are only two holdings he can have that have me beat and a lot of hands he could have that are drawing very thin for him. No way is he drawing based on 4 hours of play with him from a few weeks earlier.

What happened?? Read ahead if you've already commented or don't wish to comment.

How confident of him having you beat do you have to be to fold here?? My right hand just couldn't muck the cards.

I thought about it and couldn't put him on 55 in that position very often as the pressure is coming on and he can wait for better positional spots to play a small pocket pair with a raise and his decent stack. He could have AT sooted or overcards maybe (unlikely) or JJ or else he could have TT or maybe 99 (unlikely).

Very unlikely he got trappy preflop here with QQ and KK although maybe he has AA looking for a reraise preflop, I thought. I stared at him for a minute and got nothing. Then I decided well there are a lot of hands I could be winning against although I think this was greed influencing me (since I knew I could get the SBs chips as well) I just couldn't laydown the third nuts and I went all-in. I told the SB she didn't need to call that she had plenty of chips and to stay out of the hand and survive a bit longer. She went all-in as expected.

The utg limper called as expected and then got all slow about turning his cards over and I knew I was toast. He evntually turned over TT when the stacks had been counted despite myself and the SB turning over our cards straight away.

No miracle case 4 fell and I was gone.

This is the closest I have ever come to making a great laydown - but I didn't. Or would this have been a poor laydown 80% of the time given the circumstances I don't know. I had no physical tell to go on so i played it in the end thinking that in the long run this is the right way to go but I'm still perplexed by the hand 4 weeks later so I don't know. Any and all comments are appreciated.

The Troll

Based on your read of the player you could have layed it down. That said, its a heartbreaker to put a set down on that flop. IMO it wa sthe right move to make. Your shortstacked late in the tourney with a chance to triple up. Dont think anyone couldve folded in that situation

Culchie

edit .. made redundant by outcome of handposting

Hard Luck, no escaping that one.

ollyk1

Hectorjelly wrote:

Wishfill thinking? These both cant be true.

Sorry Hector I spoke imprecisely here with my use of the words implied odds. There were a lot of ways I could win the hand I thought postflop based on image. If I hit a set I felt I could get paid off but that wasn't how I saw the hand going in general :rolleyes: more likely a nice AQx flop checked to me and I go all-in based on the players. My point is I wasn't just playing for set value.

I could easily have folded and maybe I should have but knowing the players quite well and being able to manipulate them I wanted to play at them - does this make sense?? I'm just trying to give an insight into my thoguhts at the time. I could fold JJ in this spot on another occasion if I thought necessary but I felt this hand could be played at post flop so I got involved. I want to play at bad players in a situation where its a scary pot commiting pot for them post flop. Not very often but the odd time. I'm no expert though so all comments are appreciated.

Hectorjelly

Calling preflop is bad - folding a set on that flop having invested 15% of your chips preflop would be one of the worst laydowns ever.

careca

No chance of you getting away from it. Just unlucky that ye both hit. I still believe set over set in holdem is one of the hardest to get away from without the read being 100% correct (ie opponent is wearing a jumper made from a mirror).

ollyk1

I've been done by set over set plenty of times as have we all and most of the time i just shrug and think thats poker and I had nothing to go on and basically the hand plays itself.

But this time his 1000 bet into a 3200 pot threw me and gave me serious pause for thought. It's pretty unlikely he has an overpair given how he plays good pairs preflop except maybe for slowplayed aces looking for reraise. But I think he bets pot with aces postflop looking to catch someone with a ten or something.

If he has an underpair its a horrible bet imho he should have at least bet 2k to try and take it down and I just don't think he does this. No way 1000 gets through us all. My first thought was f**k he's hit the tens but I talked myself into calling. You are right Careca and HJ you'd have to be 100% confident of the read to fold here because you absolutely dominate so many hands I guess I'm just left with the lingering doubts that maybe he gave me some info with that bet that I should have heeded. It felt totally "wrong", out of his betting pattern character and obviously I'm getting involved with these players because I felt I had them very much sussed. Then I go and don't listen to my own thoughts due to greed. If the guy had gone all-in it would have been an easier call for me.

At some stage folding a set has to be right just thinking back on this hand I don't know if this was that time.

The Troll

ollyk1 wrote:

I've been done by set over set plenty of times as have we all and most of the time i just shrug and think thats poker and I had nothing to go on and basically the hand plays itself.

But this time his 1000 bet into a 3200 pot threw me and gave me serious pause for thought. It's pretty unlikely he has an overpair given how he plays good pairs preflop except maybe for slowplayed aces looking for reraise. But I think he bets pot with aces postflop looking to catch someone with a ten or something.

If he has an underpair its a horrible bet imho he should have at least bet 2k to try and take it down and I just don't think he does this. No way 1000 gets through us all. My first thought was f**k he's hit the tens but I talked myself into calling. You are right Careca and HJ you'd have to be 100% confident of the read to fold here because you absolutely dominate so many hands I guess I'm just left with the lingering doubts that maybe he gave me some info with that bet that I should have heeded. It felt totally "wrong", out of his betting pattern character and obviously I'm getting involved with these players because I felt I had them very much sussed. Then I go and don't listen to my own thoughts due to greed. If the guy had gone all-in it would have been an easier call for me.

At some stage folding a set has to be right just thinking back on this hand I don't know if this was that time.

Folding a set with you stack and the stage in the tournament would've been wrong.

Hectorjelly

The time to fold a set is when you are in a cash game with 250 big blinds and you have bottom set against the tightest player at the table who puts in the 4th bet on the flop. Folding a set having invested more than 1/8 of your chips would be crazy!

The Snapper

careca wrote:

(its 1000 to call, not free).

Reading thru this post this quote in particular caught my eye.

Assuming the pot size ( 4 x 800 = 3200 + 2 x 1000 = 5200 ) Pot odds to call the 1000 bet in the sb are 5/1 ish. Alternately and possibly a factor here ? 1000 to call is 20% of sb's stack. To what extent if at all, is this a factor in sizeing your bet here.