Fold top two pair on a dangerous board

Tackle

[Nov 13 18:39:39] : Hand Start.
[Nov 13 18:39:39] : Seat 1 : orion-1 has $130
[Nov 13 18:39:39] : Seat 2 : Tacklef has $321.25
[Nov 13 18:39:39] : Seat 3 : whodat has $20
[Nov 13 18:39:39] : Seat 4 : drumguy42 has $42
[Nov 13 18:39:39] : Seat 5 : cassars has $23
[Nov 13 18:39:39] : Seat 6 : sason14 has $66.75
[Nov 13 18:39:39] : cassars is the dealer.
[Nov 13 18:39:40] : sason14 posted small blind.
[Nov 13 18:39:40] : orion-1 posted big blind.
[Nov 13 18:39:44] : whodat posted big blind.
[Nov 13 18:39:44] : Game [44320] started with 6 players.
[Nov 13 18:39:44] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Nov 13 18:39:44] : Seat 2 : Tacklef has Kh Qc
[Nov 13 18:39:46] : Tacklef called $2
[Nov 13 18:39:48] : whodat checked.
[Nov 13 18:39:49] : drumguy42 folded.
[Nov 13 18:39:49] : cassars called $2
[Nov 13 18:40:21] : sason14 called $1
[Nov 13 18:40:39] : orion-1 raised $4
[Nov 13 18:40:43] : Tacklef called $4
[Nov 13 18:40:43] : whodat called $4
[Nov 13 18:40:45] : cassars called $4
[Nov 13 18:40:48] : sason14 called $4
[Nov 13 18:40:48] : Dealing flop.
[Nov 13 18:40:48] : Board cards [Js Ks 6s]
[Nov 13 18:40:51] : sason14 checked.
[Nov 13 18:40:53] : orion-1 checked.
[Nov 13 18:40:20] : Tacklef bet $15
[Nov 13 18:40:20] : whodat folded.
[Nov 13 18:40:24] : cassars folded.
[Nov 13 18:40:26] : sason14 folded.
[Nov 13 18:40:29] : orion-1 called $15
[Nov 13 18:40:29] : Dealing turn.
[Nov 13 18:40:29] : Board cards [Js Ks 6s Qd]
[Nov 13 18:40:33] : orion-1 checked.
[Nov 13 18:40:41] : Tacklef bet $20
[Nov 13 18:41:21] : orion-1 called $20 and raised $89 and is All-in
[Nov 13 18:41:35] : It's your turn.
[Nov 13 18:41:35] : Tacklef has 10 seconds to respond.
[Nov 13 18:41:45] : Tacklef did not respond and is folded
[Nov 13 18:41:46] : orion-1 wins $97 as the last player standing
[Nov 13 18:41:48] : Hand is over.

No read on the villain, only played a few hands with him but he seemed decent. I think I shoulda bet more on the turn but was the fold good?

Hectorjelly

Checking the turn and calling the river is the best way to play this (allthough folding preflop is even better). As it stands I think turn is probably a fold, I think you are looking at a set/flush more than AA AK. However the fact he only started with 50bbs would make me more likely to pay him off.

Bozzer

Hectorjelly wrote:

Checking the turn and calling the river is the best way to play this (allthough folding preflop is even better). As it stands I think turn is probably a fold, I think you are looking at a set/flush more than AA AK.

I prefer betting about $45 on the turn with the intention of calling a raise.
Do you really see villain checking flop and turn with a set?
QsQ could easily but a flopped set-I'm not so sure.

Also i'm not positive a smaller flush raises preflop(except perhaps q10s) or would risk giving free cards on flop and turn

I think villians range contains more hands with the ace os spades in it.
Against these hands we should bet the turn to charge him to draw.

I understand your idea of checking the turn to get to a showdown and for pot control reasons but i'm not sure it's best against villains likely range.


As the actual hand turned out I would fold to the turn push but it's close.
Like I said if you had bet $45 and he pushed then I would call as I don't think most villains change their pushing standards enough based on the difference in your bet size.

They're probably not thinking about issues such as pot commitment/ amount of folding equity needed.
They're more likely to think, I have a pair and the nut flush draw..I'm all-in.

Hectorjelly

Bozzer wrote:

I prefer betting about $45 on the turn with the intention of calling a raise.
Do you really see villain checking flop and turn with a set?
QsQ could easily but a flopped set-I'm not so sure.

Also i'm not positive a smaller flush raises preflop(except perhaps q10s) or would risk giving free cards on flop and turn

I think villians range contains more hands with the ace os spades in it.
Against these hands we should bet the turn to charge him to draw.

I understand your idea of checking the turn to get to a showdown and for pot control reasons but i'm not sure it's best against villains likely range.


As the actual hand turned out I would fold to the turn push but it's close.
Like I said if you had bet $45 and he pushed then I would call as I don't think most villains change their pushing standards enough based on the difference in your bet size.

They're probably not thinking about issues such as pot commitment/ amount of folding equity needed.
They're more likely to think, I have a pair and the nut flush draw..I'm all-in.

His opponents actions are the line all unthinking (which is all) opponents take with the nut flush / or a set, having raised preflop, so Im looking to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible. Im happy to take the risk of being outdrawn because I want to play a tiny pot with 1/2 pair on a 3 flush board, If you check turn you will often induce a bluff on the river.

If he had AA or AK I would expect a bet or check raise on the flop.

I think his likely range is flush - 55% set 15% AK/AA 20% other hand 10%

I dont understand the thinking behind thinking behind your argument. If you dont think his pushing range changes then why wouldnt you call his push as played above?

Bozzer

Hectorjelly wrote:

I dont understand the thinking behind thinking behind your argument. If you dont think his pushing range changes then why wouldnt you call his push as played above?

If you bet $20 and he pushes you need 47% pot equity.

If you bet $45 and he pushes you need 29% pot equity.

Against the following range

{AsA,QsQ,AsK,AsQ,AsJ,As10,AQs,A10s,AsQs,As10s}

your hand has 33% pot equity.

This isn't a case of betting more to pot commit yourself, but betting more
to charge him an incorrect price to draw

Hectorjelly

Bozzer wrote:

If you bet $20 and he pushes you need 47% pot equity.

If you bet $45 and he pushes you need 29% pot equity.

Against the following range

{AsA,QsQ,AsK,AsQ,AsJ,As10,AQs,A10s,AsQs,As10s}

your hand has 33% pot equity.

This isn't a case of betting more to pot commit yourself, but betting more
to charge him an incorrect price to draw

Ah yes, I worded my question wrongly. But before you bet I think you need to make a decision, If you think that he likely to already have you beat then checking is right, if you think that he is unlikely to have you beat then betting is probablty right. I dont see why you would deliberately price yourself in unless you thought you were ahead.

kincsem

Tackle wrote:

No read on the villain, only played a few hands with him but he seemed decent. I think I shoulda bet more on the turn but was the fold good?

The fold was 100% correct. You were dead. Don't pay to find out what you already know.
Wish I would follow my own advice. See my post today on the bad beat thread.:

Bozzer

Hectorjelly wrote:

. I dont see why you would deliberately price yourself in unless you thought you were ahead.

When I bet $45 on the turn, I'm betting against the range of hands
which I put villain on given preflop and flop action and the turn check.
These include the hands which I think villain could reasonably push
the turn with that I listed above.
But they also include other hands which won't push but will call the turn.
These hands could include As x, AK no spade, Jx10s, QsJx, Ks10.
These hands are drawing very live on the turn against our two pair.
Some of the hands which I think villain might push with may infact call
and vice versa.

You seem to think that I'm betting the turn against the range of hands
I think villain would push with and that I'm pricing myself in when I
know villain is ahead. This of course would be stupid.
But like I said I'm betting the turn against the range of hands which I put him on given the action so far,many of which are drawing live and most of which would be incorrect in calling the turn bet.

A side product of the turn bet is that we price ourselves in against his pushing range but that doesn't mean the bet is wrong against his whole range of hands on the turn.

Having said all that:D , you are probably right that I am attributing too much thought to a villain at $1/$2 sitting with 65bb's, and so a turn check could well be right. I like my line better if villain is somewhat thnking.

AmarilloFats

Bozzer wrote:

If you bet $20 and he pushes you need 47% pot equity.

If you bet $45 and he pushes you need 29% pot equity.

Against the following range

{AsA,QsQ,AsK,AsQ,AsJ,As10,AQs,A10s,AsQs,As10s}

your hand has 33% pot equity.

This isn't a case of betting more to pot commit yourself, but betting more
to charge him an incorrect price to draw

HEy Bozzer..Did you use Pokerstove to do these calcs!"!?? Or, Gulp, your noggin???

Tackle

I think I shoulda bet more on the turn because $20 looked a bit weak after betting $16 on the flop, gave him a great opportunity to semi bluff with the nut flush draw. I think if I'd bet $30 or even $25 I'd be more comfortable with folding if he cr all in. I'd say I'm beat though.

Corben Dallas

Ok was this a cash game or a MTT/ STT?

I think the flop bet is maybe ok, but pushing again on the turn? reason is if your against any made flush you've lost and need to be hitting a K or Q on the river for a FullHse as yur only out, lot of players will even call with a single high spade on the flop.

The flop bet (imo) is essetianlly a feeler bet,!!!EDIT!!! if he has flush u either get called (hoping for more action again on turn), or instant fold if hes no spades, but in a cash game its a 'donation bet' and madness on the turn.

In fact if its a cash game the flop bet is prob a v dangerous push.

Bozzer

AmarilloFats wrote:

HEy Bozzer..Did you use Pokerstove to do these calcs!"!?? Or, Gulp, your noggin???

My head of course :rolleyes: .
Nah it was indeed Pokerstove .

Tackle

Corben Dallas wrote:

p.
The flop bet (imo) is essetianlly a feeler bet, if he has flush u either get called or instant fold, but in a cash game its a 'donation bet' and madness on the turn.

It's not just a call with the flush, it's a call with the flush draw, especially the nut flush. The turn bet is to find out where he stands and charge him if he's drawing, although I think checking the turn is ok as has been suggested.

In fact if its a cash game the flop bet is prob a v dangerous push.

When in doubt bet out. There's no point in me calling preflop if I'm just going to give free cards when I hit the flop.

padser

I think its a def fold. But I think I would have folded them pre flop. KQo just gets you into trouble i find, because its dominated by two of the hands it often ends up in the pot with.

The Troll

Corben Dallas wrote:

Ok was this a cash game or a MTT/ STT?

I think the flop bet is maybe ok, but pushing again on the turn? reason is if your against any made flush you've lost and need to be hitting a K or Q on the river for a FullHse as yur only out, lot of players will even call with a single high spade on the flop.

The flop bet (imo) is essetianlly a feeler bet, if he has flush u either get called or instant fold, but in a cash game its a 'donation bet' and madness on the turn.

In fact if its a cash game the flop bet is prob a v dangerous push.

Continuation bets and feeler bets are 2 of the most important things in cahs games. I've taken down countless pots with no cards through continuation bets that represent strong hands.