This time tomorrow....

RE*AC*TOR

We'll be chewing the fat over the election results (bar recount mayhem). People have suggested many things which will influence the election, but I think the biggest thing will be voter turnout. Looking over at CNN today, I saw an article on how various pundits rated the campaigns.

Bob Novak
Any presidential re-election is a referendum on the incumbent, so this election is mainly about George W. Bush. He fills the campaign stage. There are obviously a lot of people who hate him, but he also has many voters who love him. John Kerry is a far less distinct figure, who generates neither love nor hate. Yet, that small fraction of undecided or persuadable voters seems in doubt over whether Kerry is fit to be president, and that may determine the outcome of the election.

Tucker Carlson
Bush is an appealing candidate, but Iraq hurts him. The opposite is true for Kerry.

Paul Begala
Voters want change. Bush offers more of the same. Kerry offers a new direction. Kerry wins.

James Carville
The big story of this election is going to be the big turnout; it is going to be of a level we are unable to anticipate.

They all make decent point, but will it be a case, where all the pre-election polls can be thrown out the window, and a clear victor will emerge? Note the polls, poll likely voters, and as far as I know those are people who have previously voted. In the post 9/11, turbulent, super-partisan america, surely its naive to think there won't be a massive turnout compared to previous years. Remember the apathy surrounding the Gore / Bush election?

Hobbes

In regards to voter turnout. A friend in the US went out to vote at 6:30am. They told me after they had voted and come out the queue to vote was huge (around 7am).

Expected turnout is around the 60% mark.

Sleipnir

If it's 60% it'll be the highest in 40 years apparently.

The actual result will probably take a month!

mr_angry

I agree completely with Bob Novak's point in the original post. Kerry's main advantage is that he isn't Bush. Not really the kind of policy I'd like to elect a president on, but then again... at least he isn't Bush!

Frankly, I don't see there being a clear winner. Either candidate is doomed to have half the nation (roughly) voting against them, or worse still, outrightly hating them.

FatherTed

I voted today, in and out in about 5 minutes. Reports from MSNBC is that there is a high turnout in the Eastern Time Zone states and a lot of young people voting which can only be good news for Kerry. Voting problems already, in Philly some voting machines already had 2000 votes on them before the voting started and the repubs will be taking this to court. It will be a long day/week/month.

dahamsta

I only became interested in politics a few years ago, so I'm curious: Would you think the level of international interest in this election is higher than usual?

adam

segadreamcast

Yes, but the interest in U.S. presidential elections in Ireland/U.K. has been gradually climbing all the time IMO.