Make millions on Party Poker!!!!

TwoShedsJackson

If you fancy a laugh check out this guide: http://www.nd.edu/~vkoppers/PPCRACKED11.pdf

The guy refuses to disclose his real money winnings but he has over $60 million in his play money account!!!!!!!!!!!11

Includes gems like:

AA KK QQ.

Whenever you get one of these 3 hands, two other players will indefintely have a pocket pair as well a large percentage of the time. And you'll know by the way unless you are first to act because the betting will start getting really big pre-flop. This scenario happens very often. I would say that 40% of the time that 1 of the 2 smaller pairs will flop a set (Three of a kind).

This means your AA KK or QQ are liabilities in PARP. Don't get me wrong I win with these 'great' starting hands but it's only about 20% of the time.

Knowing this I will not call a raise, or place a bet more than $5 preflop with AA KK or QQ!!!!! If I bet $2 and it goes to $10 I am usually going to lay that hand down (fold). I almost always check these hands. After the flop, if I don't get a set I usually fold if there is a bet over $1.

He says Jacks are better but will lay those down to a $10 bet as well unless he hasn't won a hand in ages, as we all know you have more of a chance winning a hand when you haven't bet one in a long time, I mean you have to win this time right *cough*

Oh yeah he folds KJ and QT because they never seem to hit, but calls 34o, 47o and 75o. Not much more I can say about this guy really

Krusty_Clown

You mean you guys don't play like this?

DeVore

wow. :eek:

DeV.

Iago

sounds like the book I read before starting to play, is there some dispute over the accuracy of the statements?

DeVore

Read the rest of that document though, he's claiming that PP and Empire are deliberately turning their servers on anyone who has a decent run of cards. I was
refering to this only the other day on another thread. It would take a lot of analysis of data to be able to say that within any decent level of confidence.

His allegations are pretty clear from page 2 onwards!

DeV.

Imposter

DeVore wrote:

Read the rest of that document though, he's claiming that PP and Empire are deliberately turning their servers on anyone who has a decent run of cards. I was
refering to this only the other day on another thread.

Judging by the cards I got last night in a ring game on gamingClub the same could be said for them. I played 9 of the first 10 hands with great cards, or marginal to good cards in good positions. Only once did anything fall on the flop. Lost the ones I played aggressively and folded most after my pre-flop raises when the flop looked very dangerous. I'd lost all my money (max buy-in 50$ to .25/.5 PL) in 21 hands after playing 70 something % of hands.

DeVore

as I (and HJ) pointed out though, you dont see the 10 other people who you played against posting here saying "I had a pretty average night, hit a few flops and made a little cash... oh and there was this mad man playing 2 hands out of 3 and raising everything preflop and folding on the flop!"

I dont really believe they would risk someone like PokerTracker doing an analysis of the hands from its thousands of users and spotting a trend on a particular website. It would be a scandal that would buy even Ladbrokes.

DeV.

Imposter

DeVore wrote:

as I (and HJ) pointed out though, you dont see the 10 other people who you played against posting here saying "I had a pretty average night, hit a few flops and made a little cash... oh and there was this mad man playing 2 hands out of 3 and raising everything preflop and folding on the flop!"

I'll post the file when I get home and any of ye gurus can tell me what it was I did wrong in these hands! Admittedly the last 2 or 3 I was tilting but the other hands i'd like your opinions.

Rodge

A lot of what he is saying makes sense to me.
I got AA four times in a row last night on PP and while it won the first time it lost to flushes the other 3. AA 4 hands in a row has to have a seriously low probability.

And as a matter of interest how many times have you hit a Royal Flush in real life and how many times online?

DeVore

My point isnt that you did something wrong. It ISNT that this isnt happening, in fact I make no declarations on that topic either way.

My point is that anecdotal "something REALLY REALLY unlikely happened to me today" stories are not a basis for making a judgement.

Those servers serve millions of deals every day. Which means that a 1-in-a-million shot happens SEVERAL TIMES A DAY, even if the deck isnt rigged!

Can you even *construct* a 1-in-a-million shot with poker? I cant without getting really silly... Either you are drawing dead, or you usually have at least runner-runner odds (about 1 in 1250ish).

Runner Runner will therefore happen about 1000 times a day on a server that deals 1,000,000 hands. Food for thought innit!

DeV.

Hectorjelly

Online poker isnt rigged, however significent profit can be made through the use of pattern maps, that predict the turn and the river cards based upon the flop:

"yesterday I had 77. The flop was 6AQ. Based on the pattern map, I knew that it was unlikely for someone to have AA or QQ (though I can only predict other people's hole cards with about 40% accuracy right now) and I also knew that the next two cards would be a 2 and a 7. Because of this, I capped the flop and turn against two opponents who had AQ and 66. Of course, the river was a 7 as expected and we capped that street as well resulting in a huge pot for me."

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=501390&page=&view=&sb=5&o=&fpart=1&vc=1

Krusty_Clown

I've been using pattern-maps for real life games too (and you all thought I was reaching for my cigarettes). Everytime I hit pocket 2s I go all-in, cos I know that someone will be holding AA, and someone else KK, but I'm secure in the knowledge that a '2' will come out on the flop.. I automatically dump AA and KK, but JJ is a little more playable..

So any time you see me go all-in, you know I'm holding 22*.


* Reverse psychology at it's worst

DeVore

To the players with 66 and AQ that looks like a vicious outdraw too... makes you wonder who you are facing online eh?

DeV.

Shortstack

Anybody else notice the lengths he has gone to cover up his screenname?

Look in the chat box......

Conspiricy theories abound all over about the randomness of hands online. The simple fact is you play more hands, there are more bad players who will call you down to the river and get lucky so you are bound to see more bad beats....

Everyone remembers when they are the victim of a bad beat but forgets when they inflict one!

Most people think everytime they put all the chips in with the best hand it is a bad beat. Yet quite often the are only 2/1 or less. Do this 30 times and you will lose more than 10 times!

Some interesting pre flop facts :

AK suited will only win 6/10 times vs 78 suited
This improves to only 7/10 times vs 10 2 suited

After the flop your and your oppenent needs one card to make his flush - he will make 37.5% of the time.

Jeez I must be in bad mood today!

TwoShedsJackson

Rodge wrote:

A lot of what he is saying makes sense to me.
I got AA four times in a row last night on PP and while it won the first time it lost to flushes the other 3. AA 4 hands in a row has to have a seriously low probability.

And as a matter of interest how many times have you hit a Royal Flush in real life and how many times online?

Can you post the hand histories Rodge and let us have a look?

Krusty_Clown

Here's an article from a few years back, where a security company claimed to find flaws in PlanetPoker's shuffling algorithm.

Looks like some stupid over-sights at the time..

DeVore

Producing true "randomness" is actually quite hard. This is the area of this discussion that interests me and I have a couple of mates who are lecturers and experts on the subject. However the patterns that emerge in near-but-not-quite random streams need massive amounts of data and a fair bit of crunching/analysis before they become clear. Certainly one or two players watching cards isnt going to reveal them....

DeV.

TwoShedsJackson

Shortstack wrote:

Anybody else notice the lengths he has gone to cover up his screenname?

Look in the chat box......

He didn't bother blanking that out because PP doesn't archive play money hands nor can you request the hand histories of them.

Shortstack

TwoShedsJackson wrote:

He didn't bother blanking that out because PP doesn't archive play money hands nor can you request the hand histories of them.

Still, his username will be the same in real or play money. I can only assume he does'nt want anyone to recognise him if they come across him. I would imagine eeveryone would raise over $10 to him everytime!

Culchie

I too have reservations about the on-line servers turning on targeted players.

Party-Poker just kills me everytime, too many times to be credible, is it because I'm not based in the USA and involves administration expenses etc...to pay out to a foreigner??

Bet-Fair seems to favour more times than not the Chip-Leader, (but then again, that might be why he is the chip leader).

What poker Site do the gurus on this forum suggest as their best on-line site recommendation, both of terms of genuine cards, and easy pay out facilities?

I'm not expert, but steadily improving, and just want to play as near to the real thing on-line as I can.

Regards

Culchie

DeVore

There are gurus on this forum?!

Ok. John Duthie probably counts. Other then that there are some of us who have read a page ahead in the manual, I dont know that you could call (m)any of us gurus!


DeV.

Culchie

You'll do for now !!

Any recommendations for on-line poker?

Culchie

Imposter

I forgot to post that file last night but definitely will tonight!

Dev, are you playing online now? If so what games are you playing and how is it going?

Hectorjelly

Culchie wrote:

I too have reservations about the on-line servers turning on targeted players.

Party-Poker just kills me everytime, too many times to be credible, is it because I'm not based in the USA and involves administration expenses etc...to pay out to a foreigner??

Bet-Fair seems to favour more times than not the Chip-Leader, (but then again, that might be why he is the chip leader).

What poker Site do the gurus on this forum suggest as their best on-line site recommendation, both of terms of genuine cards, and easy pay out facilities?

I'm not expert, but steadily improving, and just want to play as near to the real thing on-line as I can.

Regards

Culchie

Any of the major sites are fine as far as not being rigged goes, if you play online, lose and start to blame the software then I think you should probably just give up poker alltogether. Victor Chandlers pay out system works well for me.

Iago

DeVore wrote:

There are gurus on this forum?!

Ok. John Duthie probably counts. Other then that there are some of us who have read a page ahead in the manual, I dont know that you could call (m)any of us gurus!


DeV.

I'm a guru..

This week I will be mostly playing on VC Poker in the €1K, €4K and €7.5k guaranteed tournaments or the €15 and €25 STT's

Waylander

I do not think any of the recognised sites are doing anything dodgy. The reasons for this are they are making too much money, to risk their customer bases by trying to screw them over. If they get caught doing this just once they are out of the game. Also any sites I have played on have been certified by PwC, they also would be unlikely to risk their reputations for this kind of reason. Also I played alot of live poker over the last couple of weeks, and saw plenty of bad beats that if you saw them online you'd be outraged! These draws happen, and they happen more frequently online because you play alot more hands online then live.

Culchie

Thanks Hector Jelly for you very constructive feedback...not ! :rolleyes:

Why do you presume that I am a loose player ? and why do you presume that I'm losing ? ....I'm well up actually !

What can't you accept that I genuinely feel (and it appears that many others do as well), that there is something odd about some of the on-line servers that can deal just incredible cards, that blow the 'stats' and 'maths' out of the water?

Thanks for the Victor Chandler reference.

Culchie

Culchie

Good Point Waylander about the amount of hands that get played on-line.

DeVore

I'm about to enter the murky world of Online Poker probably this weekend (though I'm out for some of it, getting blotto at the EPT).

I'm going to keep a weekly journal of how it goes on SuitedAces.com. I'm really curious now to see how it differs from playing in the Fitz. I've made good money out of the tournies in there and a little from the cash games lately (though nothing to write home about). A fair number of people have told me that they are making good money online and more then anything, I have an idea that it might suit my more maths-based game.
So I'm pretty curious to see how well it goes...

If anyone has tips for online-specific play, I'm not too proud to listen to advice!!

DeV.

Culchie

One nice little trick is early on to test the water, to wait a couple of seconds, before raising minimum on a suitable hand.

By giving the board a few seconds, alot of them will tick their check/fold option or 'auto raise' option....this logic also follows when you simply check.

It can give you a sense of who has a good/great/poor hand.

If you play really tight fore the first two rounds of blinds, you'll be down to the last 5 of 10 in a STT, and take it from there !!, only need to eliminate two more and you are in the money.

Imposter

DeVore wrote:

I'm about to enter the murky world of Online Poker probably this weekend (though I'm out for some of it, getting blotto at the EPT).

I'm going to keep a weekly journal of how it goes on SuitedAces.com. I'm really curious now to see how it differs from playing in the Fitz. I've made good money out of the tournies in there and a little from the cash games lately (though nothing to write home about). A fair number of people have told me that they are making good money online and more then anything, I have an idea that it might suit my more maths-based game.
So I'm pretty curious to see how well it goes...

If anyone has tips for online-specific play, I'm not too proud to listen to advice!!

DeV.

If you play really low entry games (5$ SnG's or maybe even 10$, low stake ring games and of course tournamnets), prepare for you're maths based game to bite you in the ass. You'll see a lot of people rivering hands that should have been folded pre-flop. Also I hope your calculations can be done in 20 seconds!

Imposter

Culchie wrote:

If you play really tight fore the first two rounds of blinds, you'll be down to the last 5 of 10 in a STT, and take it from there !!, only need to eliminate two more and you are in the money.

I thought that too but lately I seem to be sitting down at horrible 10$ tables at Ladbrokes. The last 3 weeks I've only won one and got money maybe twice more out of about 20 games. This is during the week, in the evenings. Weekends are different and I find the players usually don't seem to be as good then.

Hectorjelly

I accept that you genuinely feel something is up with the servers. This topic comes up all the time, trawal through the archives of 2+2 or RGP to see what I mean, so you are unlikely to get a paticularly friendly response to asking the same question that has been asked time and time again.

Without meaning to offend anyone, most people are really really stupid. We are supersticuous. Even demi gods like De Vore find they play better (tighter) poker with rocks in their pocket than without (Im exactly the same, I have a pair of socks that I play soccer better in; rationally I know that this is a load of crap, but I still wear them nearly every week). As well as being stupid and superstitous, most people have no background in statistics. Lastly, whilst humans are quite stupid illogical creatures, what we are good at is spotting patterns. We excel at spotting patterns. If you dont believe me, take a look at a bunch of clouds. Are brains are not good at spotting randomness. SO, to recap:

Humans are superstious
We generally dont understand statistics
we see patterns where there are none

So it makes perfect sense that most people think online poker is rigged. Just like religon, I would be surprised if less people believed.

" Party-Poker just kills me everytime, too many times to be credible, is it because I'm not based in the USA and involves administration expenses etc...to pay out to a foreigner??"

The fact that you might consider that this is a viable business strategy, leads me to suspect that you wont appreciate the following argument. But Ill put it anyway.

A successfull Online Poker site is a license to print money. They CANNOT lose. As long as they keep their players at the site they will make a huge amount of money. Party Poker has over 40 thousand players playing at their site at anyone time. There is no reason for any of these sites to rig their servers, because it would be easily found out, and the site would go bankrupt. Any half assesed Maths Student could spend a few days and prove that the site (to a reasnable confidence level) is rigged or not rigged. There is no way around this.

There are other reasons, but that is the most compelling and easy to understand.

Best of luck

Daragh

Hectorjelly

DeVore wrote:

If anyone has tips for online-specific play, I'm not too proud to listen to advice!!

DeV.

You get to play about twice as many hands, so you can afford to play tighter. Dont call raises with AQ unless its from a fairly liberal raiser.

TwoShedsJackson

Party Poker are making $1 million a day in rake, they are not 'targeting' anyone. It's human nature to blame anyone but ourselves when we lose, and frankly most people saying that a certain site is rigged don't want to admit their poor play or indeed random chance (that's why it's called gambling, folks) was to blame.

Dev, if you play limit online you better get your badbeat meter reset - you're going to see some unbelievable ****.

Waylander

DeVore wrote:

If anyone has tips for online-specific play, I'm not too proud to listen to advice!!

DeV.

The only real change for you Tom will be that you will not get the Tank time that you like to take in live games. If you have not made your call/raise/fold in 30 sec's you are automatically checked or folded as appropriate. Otherwise best of luck with it. Which site do you plan playing on?

DeVore

Yeah, I'd pretty much concur with HJ. I keep my rock (rocks? ) in my pocket because it tickles one part of me to do something so alien to the logical/raional part of my mind. "A little madness now and then, is cherished by the wisest men" as Mr Wonka put it. I havent changed my game etc but since it came with me on a nice winning streak it reminds me that I'm not "the worst player in the club" as Player X would have it! We're all human and sometimes after a bad beat (or worse a bad call!) its nice to remind yourself that you can win (and have).


The killer argument for the "poker server is messing with me on purpose" is: If they are targetting you, then someone else is the benfactor of that. Why would they choose some random punter to favour at such a greivous cost to them if caught!

DeV.

andersde10

Imposter wrote:

If you play really low entry games (5$ SnG's or maybe even 10$, low stake ring games and of course tournamnets), prepare for you're maths based game to bite you in the ass. You'll see a lot of people rivering hands that should have been folded pre-flop. Also I hope your calculations can be done in 20 seconds!

remember if you're playing $5 SnG's make sure the rake isn't $1 like in paradise poker - tis a bit difficult to beat 20% rake. Much better to play $10 with $1 rake which is 10%.

Culchie

Yeh,

I always wondered why do they do $5 STT with a $1 fee, and then also do $5 STT with a $0.50 fee as well, at the same time quite often.

It's a bit of a 'no brainer' really, but they still fill the tables with Mugs !

mewso

It's possible that they tinker with the play money game to ensure players carry on into cash gaming by balancing it out. nobody is going to check for patterns in play money games.
That guys 60 million must have been play money.

Imposter

Here's the session I was talking about earlier. If any of you get time to have a look I would be much obliged. Starting hands were (in order):
AKo, KQs, KJs, QJo, A4s, 75o, JJ, 84s, A6s, A6o, KK, K8o, 66, A6o, AJo, QJo, A2o, K7o, A6o, 76s, AQo

According to poker tracker I voluntarily put money in the pot 71% of the time. Usually according to the statistics for GamingClub and Ladbrokes I see about 25-35% of flops.

This was a file from Gamingclub (Prima) if anyone wants to run it through Pokertracker.

Hectorjelly

I have some time in work, so Ill give this ago. It didnt work with pokertracker btw.

Secondhand, dont raise 1 preflop, AK doesnt play well with 8 other limpers. Either limp with it (to try and play a small pot) or raise the pot (to cut the numbers down). Fold on the flop, with that many limpers you cant be sure your outs are clean.


For the third hand, I wouldnt get too used to raising preflop with KQ, at the higher levels players will begin to just call with AQ/k rather than KQ, which is a nighmare for KQ. Once the flop hits, I would bet the flop. You want to play a big pot for this, and a PP might pay you off (like 10,10) not believing you would bet that flop with a Q.


Same goes for KJ as KQ, but I would bet that flop. You have one caller and its just as likely that he missed the flop as you did. Also you need to bluff here to provide protection for the times that you have an overpair.

I wouldnt raise JJ utg, in low stakes pot limit your not going to be able to cut the field down, and like AK JJ doesnt play well multiway (unless you hit a set), as there will more often that not be an overcard. Fold on the turn, your behind & you dont have odds to hit your straight, and the J will put a 4 straight on the board.

With the 84 hand, dont call the flop unless you plan to bet the turn, or call on the turn. You are giving away money here.

Dont limp with A6, its a losing hand no matter what position you are in.

With KK, when the A hits the flop; theres no harm in betting to represent the A. But once your called you are behind 99% of the time. Fold at the next opportunity.

JQo would usually be folded utg by a good player.

Imposter

Thanks for that, it gives me a few things to think about. I was pretty annoyed that so few flops fell any way good for me.

I can't understand why it doesn't work in PT as that's the file as it came down from GamingClub.

I think I play quite passively and probably need to get a bit more aggressive. Would some 6-handed games help this do you think?

Drakar

I'll eat my hat (!) if any of the major sites are proved to currently deal cards which target groups of players, or types of players. It's just not in their interest. Getting caught at this kind of thing would just kill their site, the benifit they can gain from this type of activity is negligable (unless you buy into the "Major sites are running robot players to steal our money" theory).

Checkout policies are different between the sites though, and it would definately be worth seeing comparissons on this.

Hectorjelly

Imposter wrote:

Thanks for that, it gives me a few things to think about. I was pretty annoyed that so few flops fell any way good for me.

I can't understand why it doesn't work in PT as that's the file as it came down from GamingClub.

I think I play quite passively and probably need to get a bit more aggressive. Would some 6-handed games help this do you think?

Sorry, just saw this reply now. Some 6max might be good, but remember to re-adjust your game when moving back. Especially starting hand requirements. Good luck!