Of Korean's, Bush and Mushrooms

GuanYin

North Korea currently has a nuclear weapons program and its common knowledge that they're pretty eager to test their capabilities.

So there was no small amount of panic on September 9th, North Korea's founding day ("Pyongyang") and a day traditionally used to outline North Korea's greatness, when US satellite images picked up a mushroom cloud in North Korea.

What followed has been pretty bizarre from all sides.

Firstly after several days, North Korea has responded by releasing a statement claiming that the cloud was caused by "demolition of a mountain at the site of a new power plant" and agreeing to allow inspectors on site. For a reclusive nation this in itself is pretty strange as North Korea are not usually in the habit of issuing such reports, never mind allowing inspectors.

Secondly, why did the US administration give the photos to the press? Surely they should have waited until they received clarification from the North Koreans. Then, Bush's office issues two statements. One saying that the cloud was probably not a reason for worry and another saying that they feel its North Korea trying to undermine Bush's election because they feel Kerry would be easier to negotiate with (standard political spin granted, but mixed messages all the same).

All this against the backdrop of a few hundred thousand US troops are being recalled from the Korean border as the US plans to hand the demilitarized zone back to the South Koreans. A strange act given that Bush has recognised North Korea (with its standing army of over 1 million troops, highly funded military programme and nuclear weapons) as one of the main "threat" nations and originally part of "the axis of evil".

What I'm really curious about is, does the Bush administration actually have a policy on North Korea or has it just decided to forget all policies in the run up to the election and use everything as campaign material? Why withdraw troops when they know there is a threat?

therecklessone

syke wrote:

All this against the backdrop of a few hundred thousand US troops are being recalled from the Korean border as the US plans to hand the demilitarized zone back to the South Koreans. A strange act given that Bush has recognised North Korea (with its standing army of over 1 million troops, highly funded military programme and nuclear weapons) as one of the main "threat" nations and originally part of "the axis of evil".

As of 18 May 2004 there were only 37000 US troops in Korea.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/korea-orbat.htm

GuanYin

therecklessone wrote:

As of 18 May 2004 there were only 37000 US troops in Korea.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/korea-orbat.htm

Apologies, I was including Korean troops. Even still, its a boggling move.

Nuttzz

I think this is influenced in part by the "sunshine" policy of South Korea. I dont think that a war in Korea is winnable by either side, the NK's have a large standing army, while it gets the majority of the countries resources, is woefully underequiped compared to the South or the US. I do think that the US/SK could win but I dont think they contain resistance fighters.Considering the trouble the US has having in Iraq trying to contain resistance in a nation that knows nothing other than the two kims would be a complete nightmare.

The geogrpahy of the place makes it harder to fight in, I believe that during the summer months tanks have major problems in crossing fields etc.

The US public/media are (quite rightly) making a fuss about 1000 dead troops over the last year in Iraq, in any Korea war I'm sure the US would probaly lose that amount in a day.

Talking to a friend of mine in the Defence forces here, he believes that the first Gulf War was the worst thing to happen to the US, the american public could see that wars could be won with very few friendly casulaities (most friendly fire in any case) and now would not support high attrition campaigns

mycroft

Nuttzz wrote:

The geogrpahy of the place makes it harder to fight in, I believe that during the summer months tanks have major problems in crossing fields etc.

That and the border has the largest denisty of landmines per square foot of anywhere in the world.

gom

A war with North Korea would be devesating for the south under any circumstances(nukes or no nukes).

Senario 1: North Korea has No Nukes (yet)

the 1 million strong army of the NK forces is a fairly scary image. Not since WW2 have pure man power been used as a logistical challenge. How do you kill 1million soldiers in a hurry???

The answer is probably one of two things.
HUGE air force bombing - which would result in many US planes being downed as the NK have much more powerful anti-aircract equipment than any war the US has ever been in for the last 20 years.
US tactical nuclear warheads - If Bush was in power he would not hesitate to use nukes on NK to protect Japan and SK in a hurry. NK would not get any support from any nation more than likely. China would not even back them in the end game as Jiang is out of power and Hu is in place.

The army would have to be used in large numbers and even though the Nk/SK border is a hair trigger gallery and all the targets are aimed at already the amount of artillery is insane on both sides. At least 50,000 NK troops could make it through to the south. Blood blood and blood. Yes. Many US troops would perrish in amatter of minutes.

Senario 2: NK has weaponised Nukes (with in the next 0-8 years... longer and they are capable of hitting the US)

Japan would be in serious risk. Seen as everyone knows NK is insane, the US would use HUGE amounts of ICBMs on the NK peinsula. While it is believed that NK could have medium range nuclear missiles they would probably fall short of the US coast line. This would be a terrible war with millions dead but the world would still be alive with large scale nuclear clouds for a few months.