How accurate are the Euro 2004 odds?

naitkris

all the talk i hear, articles i read in newspapers etc. seems to be about it being either France, Portugal (as hosts), Spain, Italy or England winning Euro 2004. to me this seems to be based mainly on the large number of star players on these teams and/or the leagues in these countries being among the most watched in the world etc.

would it not make more sense to predict a tried and trusted team with perhaps not so many star players to lift the Euro 2004 trophy compared to a team filled with star players from the top European leagues who haven't had as much time to gel together as a team?

i am asking this as i am a little surprised how the bookies have France at 3/1 favourites yet France did so bad in their last competitive tournament finals (World Cup 2002 - not scoring a goal and exiting in the first-round). yet the Czech Republic and Sweden for example who to me are two of the better organised teams going into Euro 2004 are at 14/1 and 25/1 respectively.

oh well, if Euro 1992 winners Denmark, or Germany getting to the World Cup 2002 final against Brazil is anything to go by, excellent team work and organisation go before 23 of the world's best players with less team work and organistaion in my books, but then again i am backing Larsson & Co. to win the tournament and would have to say that...

Big Ears

the odds may be inaccurate Czech's 14-1 Sweden 25-1 , but the community known as boards certainly isnt , if you look through other Euro 2004 threads u will see me and severel others defending against critiscism about how good the Czech's are , and Sweden are my winners in the Euro 2004 pools thread .

vorbis

I'd go for Germany. They were torn to shreds before the last wc as well. They were called the worst German team in living memory and they reached the final! Spain imo will deifnetly crack in the quarters or semis. Portugal have a shortage up front and behind. France should win but the team is not as formidable as before. Italy imo have no midfield. The Germans are a very good bet imo at 18 to 1.

Jivin Turkey

In all fairness France may have choked at the last world cup, but they were the winners of the previous EC and WC. Their team is hardly built on a few star players. I would hardly call the Czechs or Sweden tried and trusted. Czech didnt even qualify for the last world cup afaik (but Ive still backed them this time!).

naitkris

i must rephrase, when i say "tried and trusted" i mean in terms of teamplay and squad organisation, not in terms of winning trophies years ago with a slightly different squad, different management etc.

Sweden have perhaps the their best team going into Euro 2004 then i can ever remember and that's saying a lot as i remember World Cup 1994 very well... yet they are at 25/1 which is strange. even Henrik Larsson joining the squad didn't change the odds on them

Big Ears

Czech lost in plaoffs to Belgium , who didnt make the playoffs , Holland , who's lost twice in a row , who's gonna be in portugal as long as Latvia Holland .

The Muppet

Odds mean nothing in tournaments remember denmark. You always get a couple of teams play above themselve and other under acheiving. I don't think France will win unless they have leared a lesson from the last WC where they appeared to think all they had to do was show up to get the win.

Jivin Turkey

Originally posted by naitkris

Sweden have perhaps the their best team going into Euro 2004 then i can ever remember and that's saying a lot as i remember World Cup 1994 very well... yet they are at 25/1 which is strange. even Henrik Larsson joining the squad didn't change the odds on them

So do Latvia, what your point?

Swedens odds at 25/1 are very fair. Each way they are 12.5/1 to reach the final, which is very reasonable.

Big Ears

Sweden's best team ever was probably in 58 , world cup final loss to Brazil , while Latvia have never qualified for a major tournament , and the main sports there are Basketball and ice hockey .

Makaveli

The bookies will never put long odds on the top teams, it would be way too dangerous.
It's not solely based on teams star players, it based on reputations a lot though. Spain may always under achieve but it they are currently ranked 3rd in the world. The bookies aren't going to give them odds of 14/1 because they always under achieve.
The fact of the matter is, the Czechs and Sweden will not be seen as favourites when the likes of Italy, France, Portugal, Spain and England are in the tournament, so although the odds are high on them, it's often more realistic.

Big Ears

Originally posted by Big Ears
Sweden's best team ever was probably in 58 , world cup final loss to Brazil , while Latvia have never qualified for a major tournament , and the main sports there are Basketball and ice hockey .

I have to contradict myself here and say Latvia's best team was in 1960 as part of the USSR

naitkris

Originally posted by Big Ears
Sweden's best team ever was probably in 58 , world cup final loss to Brazil

they got so far partly because it was held in Sweden and so lots of home support. France had great support playing at home in World Cup 1998 and ended up winning the tournament. i wasn't around in 1958 so i wouldn't have seen the teamplay from that year, other than small clips.

zAbbo

I've backed sweden @ 30/1

naitkris

Originally posted by bazH
I've backed sweden @ 30/1

where did you get 30/1?

25/1 is what i got them at... extra 500% possible return is always good

Jivin Turkey

Originally posted by naitkris
France had great support playing at home in World Cup 1998 and ended up winning the tournament.

Yeah that and they were the best team in it by a country mile.

woosaysdan

im going to back france to win 3 - 1 today against england and terry hendry to score first!!!