EU Parliament North and West punditry

spongebob

There have been some private polls in the past 2 weeks, a national poll in a newspaper the week after next will be the first public one.

Unsuprisingly Dana has no chance, her vote has collapsed. Max 1 in 5 of the votes the last time out. Good riddance .

SF and Labour and possibly the Green party could poll better than Dana but will not do well as their candidates are Regionally unknown, unlike FG and FF .

Surprisingly (or maybe not) Harkins vote (she nearly pipped Dana in 2000) has also withered . She has been invisible nationally and regionally since whe was elected for Sligo/Leitrim the last election . Her numbers have held up(ish) in Sligo but not elsewhere. She may do better if Cowley energises Mayo in her favour but otherwise she is looking at half a quota or less and may not contend unless SF Labour and Green transfer as a bloc (one of them at least) .

Fine Gael may get a quota , Higgins ahead of the Mad Tailor from Quin with a Mayo bloc. Unlike Higgins who is apparently getting FF votes in Mayo, the Mad Tailor is not getting FF votes in Clare.

Fianna Fáil will get over a quota ..but.

McDaid is not popular regionally. During his tenure as Minister for Sport he gave almost no money at all to Galway Clare Roscomon and Sligo. This has come back to haunt him with certain FF people who went on delegations over GAA pitches and whatnots of that ilk. He will get the Donegal vote though which is nearly quota in ittself. He is also vulnerable as a sitting minister on the hospitals issue .

O Neachtain was unknown until Bertie tried to bounce in Fahey, now his chances ironically depend very much on East Galway and Clare and especially the Independent FF'ers McHugh and Killeen. If they endorse him publically in the next 10 days he could sneak in ahead of McDaid . Again the hospitals could swing it.

Prediction

McDaid
Higgins
O Neachtain or Harkin ...... it is very very close it seems, one foot in mouth episode could seal it.

Information from a good FG source .

M

pdh

Don't write off Dana just yet. She was given no chance last time out and did well in the race for the vice regal lodge.
Connacht/Ulster(part of) has a history of returning an MEP outside of the two main parties.

PS Taylor-Quinn won't be welcome up in north Connacht & Ulster given her belief that no TD from this area should ever be appointed to the senstive departments of Justice & Defense. Remember what she said in Lenister House back in the early '90's....

spongebob

There is no enthusiasm for Dana, she does not have an organisation this time, having failed to keep in touch with those who voted for ther the last time.

I will personally kick her Stupid Ass for being an Uncritical Eircom Lobbyist in the European Parliament . Stick to expensive foreign clothes Dana , not a stitch you wear is made in Connacht/Ulster .

The Mad Tailor will not get any votes north of Tulla

M

Victor

:dunno:

http://www.breakingnews.ie/2004/05/11/story147006.html

Dana ‘has no confidence in Sligo returning officer’
11/05/2004 - 07:59:24

Independent MEP Rosemary ‘Dana’ Scallon has said she has no confidence in Sligo returning officer Ciaran McDermott after accusing him of shouting abuse at her yesterday.

The Connacht-Ulster MEP said she was making inquiries about registering for the upcoming European election when Mr McDermott became abusive with her.

She accused him of issuing an unprovoked threat to disqualify her from the election if her nomination papers were incorrectly filled in.

Mr McDermott was unavailable for comment last night.

In the meantime, Ms Scallon has asked Environment Minister Martin Cullen to investigate the matter.

spongebob

Goody

She musta lost the support of whoever filled it out for her that last time out.

She won't get far with nominators on the form like

Paddy Dior
Mick Givenchey
Johnny Versace
John Joe Chanel

and will then blame the returing officer.

M

ishmael whale

Originally posted by Muck
McDaid is not popular regionally. During his tenure as Minister for Sport he gave almost no money at all to Galway Clare Roscomon and Sligo.

I love the assumption that what's important in a Minister is how much pork he brings home. Let me say I'm not slagging Muck, I'm sure many people do base their vote on this kind of thing. It just reveals one of the reasons that effective government seems to elude us so often.

Victor

Originally posted by ishmael whale
I love the assumption that what's important in a Minister is how much pork he brings home. Let me say I'm not slagging Muck, I'm sure many people do base their vote on this kind of thing. It just reveals one of the reasons that effective government seems to elude us so often.

The point is all the pork is going to Donegal instead.

spongebob

Dunno about the recent Pork. I was talking about the National Lottery Pork when he was sports minister in 97-02 . He wasted the time of certain FF members in the West who went on delemagations to see him and were assured of a sympathetic ear .

Them fellas have long memories, especially if they are asked to campaign for McDaid.

M

spongebob

Todays Irish Times mentioned that Jerry Cowley (Mayo Independent TD) has endorsed Dana more fully than Marian Harkin , agreeing to be Danas stand in (if she wins and dies for example) .

Not enough to rescue Danas campaign I fear and not enough for Harkin either.

While Dana and Harkin were the best part of a quota each the last time I doubt if they will exceed a quota between them this time. Nor is it apparent that they will transfer to each other.

FG expects that the Galwegians will vote for the mad tailor from Quin, no mention of Higgins at all around here , gwan

M

spongebob

Originally posted by Muck
There have been some private polls in the past 2 weeks, a national poll in a newspaper the week after next will be the first public one.

Poll in the Irish Times yesterday.

Unsuprisingly Dana has no chance, her vote has collapsed. Max 1 in 5 of the votes the last time out. Good riddance .

7% . Bye Bye!

SF and Labour and possibly the Green party could poll better than Dana but will not do well as their candidates are Regionally unknown, unlike FG and FF .

9% and 4% , SF ahead of Dana.

Surprisingly (or maybe not) Harkins vote (she nearly pipped Dana in 2000) has also withered . She has been invisible nationally and regionally since whe was elected for Sligo/Leitrim the last election . Her numbers have held up(ish) in Sligo but not elsewhere.

She polled 60% of a quota or 16% and appears to have a reasonable campaign at present. It will be tight between her and McDaid.

Fine Gael may get a quota , Higgins ahead of the Mad Tailor from Quin with a Mayo bloc. Unlike Higgins who is apparently getting FF votes in Mayo, the Mad Tailor is not getting FF votes in Clare.

This was confirmed in the poll.FG seem to have a quota of about 26% and Higgins is well ahead of the Mad Tailor.

Fianna Fáil will get over a quota ..but.
McDaid is not popular regionally.

This was also confirmed. They polled over 30% between them with Mc Daid lagging badly. In a sign of desperation by McDaid he unilaterally declared an end to the division of the Constituency between himself and O Nechtain so that he could canvass further south. Expect ructions in Roscommon and Mayo as McDaid tries to stomp around in the next week or two.

It has also been widely noticed that Donegal always seems to get an MEP thanks to cross party transfers while Galway rarely does. The Donegal MEP will not appear in Galway until the next election so they are no good to the most populous county in the Constituency irrespective of what party they represent. Galway and Clare have almost half the electorate between them so O Neachtain is easily the best chance for the southern end of the constituency .

O Higgins is widely respected and will get much of the Mayo vote for the same reason, irrespective of party loyalties. That was one reason why Cowley did not wholeheartedly endorse either Harkin or Dana ( he kinda endoresed Dana as she will be eliminated before Harkin while Harkin is an each way bet ) , he is afraid of a big backlash if he costs Higgins a seat.

Prediction
McDaid
Higgins
O Neachtain or Harkin ...... it is very very close it seems, one foot in mouth episode could seal it.

New Prediction.

O Neachtain
Higgins
McDaid or Harkin.

M