Difficult Decisions - Part I

Hyzepher

I was recently thinking about the difficulties of playing poker - what I mean is the difficult situations that you are forced to make difficult decisions about. There are many that you will come up against even throughout one game. Over the next while I am going to perform an exercise, initially for my own game but it may also help you, where I try and workout in advance what I would do in certain situations. The first one of these is playing a pair.

The Pair

Everyone has there own way of getting the first look at thier hole cards as they are dealt out. Some look at them one at a time as they are dealt, some wait to look at them together but only when it is their time to act. No matter which way you do it there is always a rush of adrenaline when you notice that you have been dealt a pair. Now obviously some pairs are stronger then others but it always seems that a pair should be played regardless - or does it.

When we are dealt a pair in the hole it gives us some advantages - we have a made hand and maybe leading pre-flop but it also gives us some problems. The major one is that we are reducing the amount of cards that can help us once the flop and beyond goes down. For example, if I am holding 55 then even someone with 68 has more outs - albeit they must make one of them to beat me. So the question is 'What are we looking for when we play a pair?' or even simplier 'What is considered a good flop?' or if we take it one step further 'What pairs give me the best chances of seeing a good flop?'

Playing pairs is all about getting a good flop - of course there are pairs that by their own definition are more likely to see a good flop (AA or KK) but what exactly is a good flop for the other 'marginal' pairs? Well lets break it down.

Firstly when you are playing a pair you want to bet it out straight away. This will do one of three things - you may win the pot there and then, you may get into a heads-up situation, or you may have a large multi-way pot (good for pot odds). Winning the pot there and then is obviously a good thing. Getting into a heads-up situation is also good as you are more than likely getting a caller with a strong 2 cards or another pair. This helps make post flop decisions easier. Also a good multi-way pot makes the odds better for seeing the hand through.

When holding a pair most people are hoping to hit a set (3 of a kind) on the flop. This will normally give a winning hand but it's never that simple. Lets say you are holding 9s9c and the flop comes down 4h9hJh - you are holding a set but there is a flush on board. Now if someone has flopped a flush you are behind but you still have a draw to a full house - so flopping a set on the flop is always considered a good flop.

What happens if the flop is 2d2h6c - well here there are no over cards but you are vunerable to the 3rd 2. If you have bet out on the pair pre-flop the 2 becomes less of a threat. A flop that gives no over cards to your pair is always considered a good flop.

What about a flop of 4h7h9h and you are holding QsQc - well this flop is not good. There are no over cards on the flop but the flush is bad news. You haven't flopped a set so you're drawing blind if a big raise comes in. This situation is always a bad one.

What about a flop of 9hJsQd and you are holding 10c10h. Well this is probably the most tricky one to call. There are 2 over cards but they may not be high enough for someone to have called a bet pre-flop - really depends on the kicker they had. You also have a stright draw which helps. In this case the flop can be considered a good one. Without the straight draw the flop would be too bad to run with.

So based on the above situations certain pairs are more likely to yield a good flop - i.e. a 2s2c pair is always going to see over cards and therefore is risky to play, while JsJc is going to survive a lot more on the flop. With this in mind we can calculate the probabilities of a good flop coming down for each type of pair.

22 - 12% chance of a good flop
33 - 12% chance of a good flop
44 - 16% chance of a good flop
55 - 22% chance of a good flop
66 - 28% chance of a good flop
77 - 36% chance of a good flop
88 - 43% chance of a good flop
99 - 50% chance of a good flop
TT - 55% chance of a good flop
JJ - 60% chance of a good flop
QQ - 61% chance of a good flop
KK - 77% chance of a good flop
AA - 97% chance of a good flop

It should be noted that the probabilites of any of these pairs catching a set on the flop are equal (11%) - the probabilities are based on seeing a favourable flop i.e. no over cards, flushes etc.

One thing of note is that 99 gives about a 50/50 chance - how many of us would consider 99 to be the middle pair? Also TT, JJ and QQ yield more or less the same results so should be played more or less the same way.

Obviously number of players and table position will dictate somewhat but generally you need to put in a raise pre-flop if you decide to play your pair - if you play too many pairs < 99 then you may start to find your chips disappearing!


Hyzepher

Davey Devil

I think if your gonna raise with a pocket pair below 10's you have to make it an all-in - really there's no point calling - chances are you are gonna think you are behind after the flop and you will have to fold to any bet. By putting yourself all-in at least you don't have any decisions to make. Of course you run the risk of running into a higher PP and if you do well your fcuked.

With 10's and above you can put some more thought into you play. Make a raise and see what the flop brings. Problem for me with this is I always lose the plot. Usually end up going all-in after the flop no matter what it brings. Did it last week.

Had 10's made a raise - 1 caller. Flop came A, K, 9 - I couldn't bare to check it as I knew if I did my oppenent would bet and I'd have to fold - so I went all-in. Dangerous when you consider a biggish bet was called. I figured he might have an Ace but not a big Ace or he would have re-raised my initial bet. Anyway my oppenent folded he told me he had pocket 5's. Turned out to an alright play by me but it is a risky one.

My main problem is putting down hand after I have raised, I think it's something that makes the great players great - you have to know when you are beaten.

DeVore

In many ways I hate pairs, believe it or not! Funnily enough I considered 99's to be the breaking point of a strong hand or not (as Hyzepher writes). I'll always try and see a cheap flop with pairs but 66's or less and I'll often bug out if there is a lot of action pre flop. Its hard to put down a pair but I've learned to do it from multiple bad experiences!

Davey, the odds are that you will get a pair every 17 hands (I know, it doesnt feel like it to me either!) so while the temptation to go big on them is understandable I'd say you are right to see it as a flaw in your play if you are going all in on 55's etc... thats practically a semi-bluff in my book!

I'll usually try and see the flop as cheap as I can with a mediocre pair and make people pay for it with 10's or higher. Remember any 2 over cards has a 50-50 chance against you with a pair so 66 is worth the same as 79o... how many of us get wildly excited about 7,9o
Sure its a made hand but the probabilities have to be considered!

DeV.

Davey Devil

Your dead right it is a semi-bluff. I'm hoping to pick up up the pot there and then without the flop coming down. If I do get called I'm praying I'm against 2 over cards and I'm slight favourite. I wouldn't do this all the time but if I felt the need to accumulate chips it's not a bad play.

Edit: sorry bout that quoted instead of edit.

Hyzepher

If you are going to play with any pair then there is no point in just calling pre-flop - that will just get you into trouble and give you nightmares about what to do when the flop goes down. You need to bet it out and see who follows - and not just a small crappy bet - one that will take a hand to call you.

This makes eveluating the flop much easier - if no over card comes out then you can assume you are winning - except against a higher pair but then you could of expected a re-raise pre-flop. If a scary flop comes out (A, K, J etc) then it will make your decision to fold easier - the chances for a caller having over cards is high. If you hit the set then bonanza!!


Remember, if you play you must raise pre-flop - then evaluate.

Hyzepher

dropsy

I'm not so sure you have to bet pairs pre-flop, particularly low pairs (22-77). Limping in to see a flop is a viable play as long as you are prepared to dump the hand if you don't hit a set. I think position has a lot to do with it too. I would favour dumping those low pairs in early position, calling in mid position and maybe raising an unraised pot from late position with them. Another advantage to limping in is that if you do hit your set, you've given nothing about your hand away pre-flop and can often check-raise a favourable flop.

88-JJ is probably playable from anywhere but again I would only raise from late position while the top three pairs I would raise from anywhere - as much to limit the field as anything else.

Just my tuppence worth.......

DeVore

Hyzepher, I agree with you for pairs higher then 8's but for a pair of crappy 5's if it comes round to me and its just the blinds I'll call and see what the flop brings. that way if a scarry flop comes (and by your own %'s thats quite likely)... I got to see the flop for cheap and can bug out without losing a decent chunk of chips. If I hit my card or a really nice flop comes then you can get paid a lot more because noone puts you on trips...

I guess its different strokes for different folks but if I am behind (and with 55 against a table of 10 people, I can tell you you are likely to be behind) why would I want to start jacking the pot up, I'm either gonna get my card or a nice flop or I'm folding. There is no need for me to thin the field down imho, what does driving 8,9s out of the game do for me except lose me a fish when the flop comes 3,5,9o ....
What are you looking to achieve by staking a decent amount of chips on 55 preflop except to make it hurt more when the flop doesnt go your way and you have to fold...

DeV.

Hyzepher

The problem is that you probably shouldn't be playing 55 anyway. There is only 1 in 9 chance of hitting a set and if you only call pre-flop there is a good chance that when you do make trips you will be out drawn by one of the many pre-flop callers.

The list of percentages I gave, amongst other things, is to highlight that some pairs are not worth playing - really anything under 99. If you do decide to play the marginal pairs then you need to bet pre-flop to have a good understanding of where you are at post flop.

By merely limping in with low pairs you are going to get bullied off the pot post flop, especially as 90% of the time you have missed the set - that's just wasting money. With a raise you have a better chance of putting the other player(s) on a hand and this gives you a good idea of whether you pair is still holding up

Hyzepher

mewso

With low pairs I almost always try to see the flop cheaply prepared to walk away if I dont hit the set. It's a very accepted strategy in tournement play. Not so much in cash games where you want to bump the cash you might win.
A low pair is very similar to a marginal hand. If you can see the flop cheaply and are well practiced in folding on dangerous flops then why not.

I'm referring to low blinds of course. At a final table stage or massive blinds all-in or fold is the only action.

DeVore

Yeah basically that would be my tactic too Muso... Of course *you* never seem to actually get low pairs ... aces only for you as far as I can tell....

DeV.

Pimp

For me its would come down to position and chips. If i was in late position i would raise, even if its just the minimum raise, so i can get both the small and big blind out. The example pocket 5's, cant let the junk see a flop with that hand. 9,7 has same amount of outs as u say, but those outs dont look nice when on a blind, and facing a raise. Plus i would look at the stacks after me. If i have chips to cover those after i would always raise, for the same reason as above, cant let the junk hands see cheap flops. In early position i would either fold or raise(80% i would fold) dont forget your gonna be one of the first people to act after the flop, so if u miss and check, your gonna get raised and forced to fold.

If i was low on chips, i would raise all in with any pair over 5's. Reason being blinds are probably killing me, and a 50/50 shot is looking tempting. Thats regardless of position btw, with low chips u cant wait around for bigger cards imo.

It all comes down to personal prefernce though, for me, I'd rather go out raising than calling

DeVore

In my opinion it would come down to this: if I dont hit anything on the flop I'm almost certainly folding unless it is checked around so I get to see a free card. If I hit something I'm pretty much onto a winner... provided there are no flushes on board, then the worst case is that someone else with a higher pair also hit and I'm in trouble... very unlikely giving the betting we are presuming (no raises preflop... since with a decent pair you (and I) would expect a raise).

So what if junk hands limp in. What is 9,7 going to hit? a 9? a 7? both? I either get my set or (2 pair and a house draw) or I'm leaving. I hope they DO hit top pair or two pair, I want that so that my set gets paid.

What happens with the marginal hands is fairly irrelevant... its what *I* get on the flop or how the flop looks for me thats important. Small pair is one of those hands with little strength, but great opportunity, lots of weakness but shag all threats if it becomes a made hand (saving flushes and straights which can be watched for).

I think they are like suited connectors, everyone has a different view on when/if/how to play them.

DeV.

mewso

I take the point about getting rid of the blinds and it's a valid arguement for getting everyone checking to you on the flop allowing you to see the turn for nought but saying you can't let junk see the flop is implying you are in charge. With a pair of 5's you are not in charge. You are hoping to hit something. So try and do so as cheaply as possible.

And Dev you can't get any lower than a pair of 1s .

Lafortezza

Originally posted by Hyzepher
This makes eveluating the flop much easier - if no over card comes out then you can assume you are winning - except against a higher pair but then you could of expected a re-raise pre-flop. If a scary flop comes out (A, K, J etc) then it will make your decision to fold easier - the chances for a caller having over cards is high. Remember, if you play you must raise pre-flop - then evaluate.
Hyzepher

If that flop came down and I had pocket 9's or 10's, I'd bet it, think about it... I you raised pre flop and got 2 callers. That flop comes down and you bet it, what cards are they going to put you on?? AK, AJ, maybe JJ. Depending on your table image they might put you on A-small, but if they thought you had that then why are you so eager to bet out now.
The hands that would call your postflop raise would be KJ AJ maybe, AK would reraise and its doubtful that anyone had AA KK preflop with out reraising you.

Your preflop raise, and your straight away bet after that flop shows strength. If you get raised on your post-flop raise you can drop it, if you get called then you have outs to trip or some vague kind of a straight.

Better to be aggressive and try to win the pot right there, instead of checking with 3 overcards on the board, if anyone bets you have to drop your pocket pair.
One way you win, the other you lose the pot. Watch out for Puddings slowplayed suited Aces though..

gerire

Ok situation from last nights poker. Got dealt pocket Q's. Put in decent pre flop bet to get rid of stragglers. 2 of us left in the pot. Flop come A K *. So now my Q's only make part of of a very unfinished straight. Check the bet he puts in 80% of his chips.

I throw the Q's away showing them and asking what he had. He turns K Q. Not the A as I thought but he was still ahead, and had killed one of my cards.

Throwing away a High pair like that is very hard but I had no real choice with 2 over cards there and turned out to be the right choice even if it did take me 4 minutes to decide to do it....;)

DeVore

It wouldnt take me 4 minutes to put down QQ when being bet into by that after a decent raise. You have to put him on one or two of the top cards realistically. He might be bluffing with a pair of 10's or something but you cant chance it.

DeV.