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DeVore

Far from being an expect I'm still working out my style of play... in the land of the blind most of us are one-eyed men.

A lot of people here have lurked or said "I'll play in the Fitzwilliam when I get a bit better". You wont get better unless you play and "mates-games" arent going to do it. If you want to get better, play play play and read. Mates games are great crack, I love a good night of boozing and taking chances but I've found that thats a very different thing to playing competitively at somewhere like the Fitz! I've played mates games for over 2 decades (admitedly 5-card draw) and I've improved more in the last 3 months playing in the Fitz.


I've learned so sooo much playing there and going home and reading how I got beat by the people down there, determined each week not to fall into the same trap. I honestly thought there was more luck then skill in poker but I can tell you now its no coincidence you see the same names coming up over and over again.

Last week I started doing something that I first learned in business believe it or not. Business strategists use a technique caled "S.W.O.T. Analysis" to determine the worth of a company and what it should do next.
Its stands for Strenths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats.
Its a very rigourous process of review and I've used it a couple of times in companys I've been working for.

I started to use it on hands in the Fitz on thursday night. Basically because I was feeling out of my league. You have to remember I am not exactly experienced at Hold 'Em and had never been to the last table, let alone won anything! So I decided to make up my own rules of play... and they seemed to work or at least help me avoid big mistakes.

Here's how it works, its really fairly obvious and its "Poker 101" but the mnemonics helped.

Strengths: What strengths does your hand have? This isnt hard to see, most new players get infatuated with their cards and wont let go! Are your cards suited? adjacent? connectable by a run? Paired up? Preflop you should know exactly where your hand is in the starting ranking. There are only 169 card starting pairs (you can see them here: http://www.holdemhandanalysis.com/) and you should know the strengths of all of them preflop (in early, middle or late position).
You should nearly have a game plan for each in each of those positions (not as bad as it sounds as you will always toss the crap ones and always play/raise the good ones, its really the marginal ones where position comes into play).

Postflop you need to reevaluate your strengths. Have they completely dissappeared (like suited cards not getting a single card of that suit on the flop) or have you the "nuts" (best hand)?
With each bet you need to reevaluate the strength of your hand.


Weaknesses
What are the weaknesses of your hand... KK is all very well but unless you get a house you are gonna get fncked by limping flushes and straight draws. If your hand has a weakness like that it usually means you need to bet in a certain way to reduce that weakness and maximise your strengths. KK is a perfect example of that and I have to thank Hyzepher for the heads up on how to play it as it worked a few times on Thursday for me (along with QQ!)


Opportunities
Preflop you pretty much know what opportunities your hand has. They are very much associated with its strengths.

After the flop you BADLY need to reevaluate your hands opportunities. I nearly laid down a hand because I didnt get what I expected on the flop. Analysing the hand showed me that there were 4 cards (other then the set I was stupidly blinded by!) that would give me a very good hand. You might not get a set from your 99 but maybe you just hit a flush draw, a straight draw or theres a lower pair on the board for a decent house draw. Alternatively (and more commonly) you find people still blinded by their hand and dont realise that they are chasing maybe 3 specific cards in the deck just to make a mediocre hand. If your hand doesnt have decent opportunities, chuck it away regardless of how pretty it is.

Threats
A house is a great hand right? I mean, you'd be mad to toss it!
Think about what can beat you. Sure you just made a house with your King and the board reading: AAKK but so has everyone else and some have made AAAKK so you are fncked. Thats an extreme example but hopefully it makes the point.

What can beat you? How likely is it someone came through the betting with that? Hanging onto KK with an ace on the board against 4 callers of your preflop raise (which should have been all in!) is lunacy. You are almost certainly facing an ace who likes his cards.
Something like AQQ on the flop might scare him off but should also scare you too! At this point there are no hard and fast rules but you need to be aware of what can beat you and how likely it is.



An example: I played one hand at the last table on thursday where people were saying I was nuts to call an all in. I held A,10 with no hearts. Flop comes 4,5,10 all hearts. Lady moves a small stack all in and I have a decision to make. I have top pair and an ace... my strength is good right now.

Weakness of my hand is that at best I can expect two pair, three of a kind... neither are any good against a flush. So ignore them, my hand is either likely to win as it is, or not. Its not going to get much better relatively to her flush or not.

She doesnt have the flush, she looked nervous and took time to bet the all in when it was only her and me heads up. The threat is that she will get another heart to make her flush and I'm doomed.
I decide if I'm going to bet, I'm betting against that . I have to presume she also has an overcard of my pair, a card that ranks higher then a 10 and if she jams one of those on the turn or the river cards, I'm doomed unless I can pull an ace. These are the threats to my current top pair. She might have two, but I dont think so and ones probably an ace if she does and so equally helpful to me if it comes up.

My opportunities are few and pretty much irrelevant (apart from A,10 or 10,A on river and turn, sure I might as well dream of sex with Samantha Carter from SG1 while I'm at it!)

So that clarifies it. I'm betting solely that she's not going to pull a heart in two cards or a specific over card while I dont get an ace. The odds of the flush draw I work out in my head to be about 35% (actually its 31.5%, I'm getting slow!) and the chances of her pulling her high pair (3 outs) are about 12%... less about 6% for my ace. So she's got about 6% chance of jamming the pair. (at this stage they are talking about putting a clock on me, I've been taking so long!)

Total chance, in or around 40%. If I'm wrong about the flush and she's drawing to a straight the odds are slightly better in my favour so I dont worry about that.
Since we're heads up I've got 60% chance of winning and I go for it. (And you dont think I'd use an example where I lost do you )

For those of you who wonder how to work out odds at a table without a log book, here's a quick tip. Count the number of cards you (or your opponent ) needs, muliply it by 2 and then multiple it by the number of cards left to come.

Eg: You need an ace after the flop. You have 4 outs (4 aces left in the pack). (4x2) x2 ( number of cards still to come) = 16.
You have a 16% chance of hitting that Ace. (actual odds are 16.5%).
With one card to come you only have (4x2)x1 = 8% chance.

eg2: You need a 4 or 8 for a straight....Or an ace for a pair. You have 11 outs but only the river to come. Odds: 11x2x1 = 22% of you hitting it on the river (actual odds:24%)

Remember this doesnt tell you if you are going to win or not, just what the odds are of hitting the cards with the info you have to hand (in example 2 you dont know that all the Aces arent already in peoples hands and so you are a lot less likely to hit an out!)


Anyway, those are my little secrets of play (see I dont just sit there vacantly staring at the cards....)
Anyone else want to share?

DeV.

Davey Devil

Your example of the A,10 situation is an interesting one. You were right to put her on the flush draw as if she had hit the flush on the flop she probably would have only made a small bet or even checked it. Depends what kinda results you have been having lately though to make to the call. Sometimes if you are going through a bad patch your opponent seems to able to draw cards on you and you are you out on your arse. If I'm going through a bad spell I'd never make the call but if things are going well I wouldn't think twice.

I agree with you about getting into The Fitz. I was playing on and off for 2 years or so but after 3 months in The Fitz, I have totally changed my game. Since then I changed my play to be more aggressive but in a controlled way. Still I find the most important thing is not to get lucky but hope other players don't get lucky against you.

DeVore

I'm totally the opposite to you DD. If its the right call even if you've just lost your mortage in bad beats, its still the right call. I never consciously change from what how I play, its usually *changing* that costs me!!

DeV.

Lafortezza

Originally posted by DeVore
If its the right call even if you've just lost your mortage in bad beats, its still the right call. DeV.

Thats incredibly hard to do, especially if you think that your luck is crap and its just not your day. Its that mental side of poker that I find the most interesting.
For instance at my table last week there was an old hand who was getting very frustrated. I'd seen him a few times playing in the cash games, and he was in the €250 game last month so he knew his poker.

A guy I knew from school was sitting to my left, his first time in the Fitz and he got a flush followed by a house, both times completing them on the river against the old timer, making him buy in twice.

You could see the old timer was shaking his head, and the next time the n00b raised pre-flop then went all in after the flop showed A-J-4, everyone folded to the old timer who thought about it, then said "Fold!" and showed AJ when he mucked his cards. The n00b (stupidly) showed his hand K4s, and you could hear the old-timer mutter "thats not poker.."

It can melt your head sometimes trying to figure people out at the poker table.

DeVore

I dont believe in that kind of luck. Past effects just dont apply to current events. I cant count how many times I've "been on a roll" only to come to an abrupt and crashing halt. It is hard to play the odds and if you can pick up a tell on someone then you should use that if they seem to have a good hand but by and large I dont read other players, I just access the information available.

The game resets every hand, if it was the right thing to go all in the last time, its the right thing to do it this time (provided you dont get more info from the other players to make the circumstances different).

Whats dangerous is when you are doing the *wrong* thing and sticking to it! (which I've discovered I've been doing in certain circumstances!)

DeV.

Lafortezza

Originally posted by DeVore
Past effects just dont apply to current events.

True

Originally posted by DeVore
The game resets every hand

True, but people's memory doesn't. Its human nature to start thinking that if you get a bad beat a few times after making the entirely correct decisions, then the cards have it in for you! Part of trying to become a better poker player is not letting emotional reactions affect your (otherwise correct) play.

One thing I've been trying to do recently is to read other players, especially in heads up or short-handed play. Just looking out for simple reactions to your bets, the flop, or as soon as your opponent looks at his cards first. Does he place them down looking as if he'll fold them asap, or does he look at his stack deciding how much to bet, or does he immediately glance around the table seeing how many people are to play ahead of him before he can act cool while saying "All-in".

Tonight for whoever is playing the Business league it can be fairly easy to gauge new players reactions to very good or very bad hands, they haven't developed their poker faces/demeanour yet.

DeVore

Anyone who thinks that the "cards have it in for them" shouldnt be at a poker table. For me poker is about two : Odds and People.
The odds I have pretty much nailed. The People side of it, thats where the skill really lies to improve much beyond where we are now.

The danger is that I've caught more then one unsuspecting person by just *looking* a tiny bit pissed off when I've noticed them watching me before. A very subtle fake tell and let them walk into a trap of their own making because you cant sell a lie to someone as well as they can sell it to themselves.

I think what a lot of players in the Fitz do is not so much read tells and the like but perhaps process the body language subconsciously and read the various bets as extra information.... theres a big difference. I dont think many people down there could look at someone and know what they have (even Spiritus with his winking... the bastard!). Most of the good players are good because of experience and knowledge of the odds imho.

DeV.

Davey Devil

The reason I say what has happened before on the night effects you comes from my experience last week. Once with pocket queens I bet into pocket aces before the flop.Doomed. Second and third time hit top pair bet big and was twice beaten by other pocket aces. Then finally went out with pocket 7's against KJo. I agree though you have to forget about your last hand but sometimes it's not that easy.

That night will well be forgotten by this Thurs. All the players are of a high standard so in a way they are easier to read them, most of them play by the book. Also nearly all have them have paid €270 in so it's an advantage to know you have nothing to lose if you have qualyified. Although I'm sure the €270 is loose change to some of the players at it.

Lafortezza

Originally posted by DeVore
Anyone who thinks that the "cards have it in for them" shouldnt be at a poker table. For me poker is about two : Odds and People. DeV.

So you've never had a couple of bad beats and gone on tilt? Everything that happens at the poker table can change the way you play the hands that follow.

Making sure that you stick with your style and your sensible method of play even when there's all sorts of craziness going on at the table shows your becoming a better player, but everyone gets affected somehow when a player draws a 2 on the river to get the low straight that beats your trip Aces.

DeVore

I'm sure I do get affected by it subconsiously... or that others are affected by a good run of luck on my part. But I make a special effort to just stick to my game plan even when it hurts. I have hands I'll play and hands I wont... I adjust that to the looseness of the table sometimes (and I find it more enjoyable to play loose) but when I'm serious about playing I tighten everything up.

I was playing pool with the lads before last Thursday and I was utterly determined to get to the last table. I was absolutely mentally disciplined about how I was going to play and particularly when I felt myself going off the rails as I usually do when I get a big stack and its about 2 hours into the game. I realised that EVERY free in game I've had a big stack half way through, the smallest being 7000 at the break and that that couldnt be just luck. And every time I had been cleaned out around the 11-12pm mark and that that couldnt be luck either.

Every time it got to about 20 players left, my brain would go on for a walk and my playing style would go to the dogs. It nearly happened again last week but I caught t just in time. The second last table seemed to go on for aaaages... and when eventually the last table formed it took about 5 minutes to sort things out and all the finalists seemed to be from my table except Ken (Spiritus).
That, was bloody hard work and I felt drained from just thinking about hands.

I believe in luck... thats why its called gambling, I just dont accept or believe it has knock on effects

DeV.

gerire

I'll play in the Fitzwilliam when I get a bit better

Ha I love this quote. And I thought it aswell, but the better option is to play a few weeks in the fitz and then go round to your mates and clean them out. It makes you a much better player, and its only by having bad experiences in tournaments can you grow as a player

Krusty_Clown

Gerire : Devore: I'll play in the Fitzwilliam when I get a bit better

I fit into this category.. If you don't have a stack of poker-playing buddies, it can be a little more tricky to get up to speed on things like betting rules, how to deal (try figure that one out on Ladbrokes!), etiquette, etc. which makes it alot more intimidating..

As has been mentioned on a number of occasions, you shouldn't arrive into a poker game talking and acting like a complete noob..

So have some patience.. Just because we're not all ready to join the $50/$100 game right-now, doesn't mean we won't be there some-time soon! Even Doyle Brunson was a noob once..

Lafortezza

Originally posted by Krusty_Clown
I fit into this category.. If you don't have a stack of poker-playing buddies, it can be a little more tricky to get up to speed on things like betting rules, how to deal (try figure that one out on Ladbrokes!), etiquette, etc. which makes it alot more intimidating..

If you're around dublin you should come along to one of our house games. We use the same rules and stuff as the fitz but we're not arsed penalising anyone for simple mistakes. We're all friendly even Dev

Originally posted by Krusty_Clown

As has been mentioned on a number of occasions, you shouldn't arrive into a poker game talking and acting like a complete noob..

I did, and I think most of the poker board regulars did. The first thing I ever did in the Fitz was make a "string bet" (where you drop your chips one by one into the middle of the table counting them out which is wrong, you should say "Raise" and the amount you're raising). The dealers explained it to me after the hand was over and we carried on.

All n00bs should come to the fitz on a thurs, costs you nothing to start, learn the basics, make some mistakes, get embarrassed, then win your first pot, get the buzz, win your first all-in, get the bigger buzz.

casper-

Originally posted by DeVore

For those of you who wonder how to work out odds at a table without a log book, here's a quick tip. Count the number of cards you (or your opponent ) needs, muliply it by 2 and then multiple it by the number of cards left to come.

Eg: You need an ace after the flop. You have 4 outs (4 aces left in the pack). (4x2) x2 ( number of cards still to come) = 16.
You have a 16% chance of hitting that Ace. (actual odds are 16.5%).
With one card to come you only have (4x2)x1 = 8% chance.

eg2: You need a 4 or 8 for a straight....Or an ace for a pair. You have 11 outs but only the river to come. Odds: 11x2x1 = 22% of you hitting it on the river (actual odds:24%)

Ok, sorry Dev but I _had_ to take five minutves with pen and paper to see what you were talking about with this *2 Now that I see it, I'm kicking myself for not just working it out in my head. In case anyone's as dim-witted as I am, here's the logic:

Example 1:
You need an Ace after the flop. The deal showed you two cards, the flop three more, so there are 47 other cards out there. The chances of getting an Ace on the turn is 4 / 47 * 100 = 8.5%. (Easy enough)

If you don't get see an Ace then, the chance of getting one on the river is 4 / 46 * 100 = 8.7%.

Then, anyone who's done about five minutes of probability will tell you that the chance of getting an Ace on either the flop or river is 8.5 + 8.7 = 17.2%.

Of course the [/ 47 * 100] or [/46 * 100] part is a constant that works out to approximately 2 so you can just skip and multiply 4 * 2 directly.

I think I've lose some brain cells since high school :P

---

Just as a quick aside, getting an Ace on the turn
and the river is way less possible.

.085 * .087 = .007395 or slightly less than 1%

I don't think there's any shortcut for calculating joint probabilities like that, but chances are if you need two Aces to win you should probably fold

Krusty_Clown

Also bear in mind the number of callers you have in the game..
If there are three of four callers, there's a chance that one of them is holding Ax (for example).
So mentally adjust your odds down slightly to accomodate the number of players in the game..

I'm looking forward to heading to the Fitz.. Just need to get rid of those pesky kids of mine..


and I've found out how to deal properly!

DeVore

Dont adjust the odds of the card draw based on the number of callers. This probabilty refers to the likelihood of you drawing the care you desire. Its not about whether you are going to win or not. Of course, you need to do a *different* calculation regarding your chances but that should be incorporated into your analysis of Strengths or Threats... if after that you decide you can win with the desired hand, you then use the formula above to calculate the odds of you winning.

Combine the two probabilities to get an idea of your overall chances of taking the pot, sure... but the number of callers does not affect the odds of drawing your "out".

DeV.

DeVore

Jedidjab..., I think you may have killed a few more braincells in High School (is that a school for getting high? hmmm ww) ) then you might have thought!

Mostly you are right but this line is wrong:

Then, anyone who's done about five minutes of probability will tell you that the chance of getting an Ace on either the flop or river is 8.5 + 8.7 = 17.2%.

And someone who stuck around for the rest of the probabilty class will tell you that thats not right

by your logic if you dealt 3 cards the odds would be the sum of the odds of any one of the three being an ace.

If you think about that to its logical conclusion that would mean if you dealt 12 cards you would be CERTAIN of getting an ace (8.5%+ 8.7% +8.9%... etc etc > 100%)

For two cards the difference is minimal but as you increase the number of cards the variance between the sum and the normal distribution curve becomes greater.

The difference arises from the cases where the second card is an ace and the first card has also been an ace... these cases were already allowed for when you calculated the FIRST card being an ace and not caring what the second card would be. Effectively you have double-counted the hands where AA is the turn/river.
(take solace from the fact that 99% of the populace of the planet make that mistake intuitively!)

DeV.

casper-

Originally posted by DeVore
Jedidjab..., I think you may have killed a few more braincells in High School (is that a school for getting high? hmmm ww) ) then you might have thought!

Mostly you are right but this line is wrong:

And someone who stuck around for the rest of the probabilty class will tell you that thats not right

Oh dear :mad:

And to think I actually had a course in second year of school too.. for some reason all that popped into my head earlier (from one of my textbooks) was

P(A) U P(B) = P(A U

and I just replaced U with 'or' and '+' .

Sigh. Obviously the crack talking there.

After a tiny bit of thought, it came flooding back

P(A or = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and

That annoyed me; I really used to enjoy math, and I figure I should exercise my brain a tiny bit more, so here's my new logic (feel free to point out where I've gone wrong)

Same situation as before: You have two cards and the flop is on the table.

A) probably of geting an Ace on the river

P(A) = 4 / 47 = 0.085

probably of getting an Ace on the turn (with no ace having been seen on the river)

P(B) = 4 / 46 = 0.086

C) probably of getting an Ace on the river and the turn -- this was right.

P(A and = 0.085 * 0.086 = .00731

D) probably of getting an Ace on the river or the flop

P (A or = 0.085 + 0.086 - .00731 = .16369 or 16.4%

---

I'll cross my fingers, but I think that makes sense. As you pointed out though, for only two cards the difference is minimal and you original shortcut works beautifully

jArgHA

dev - that's a very useful odds calculation, i must start using it. does the rough odds calculation hold for before the flop:

eg. u want to hit an ace on the flop, turn or river (and have AK in the hole), therefore the odds of hitting an ace are

3 (Aces Left) * 2 * 5 (Number of cards yet to come) = 30%

Incidentally if you applied the same calculation to hitting a King, this would also be 30%, so are the odds of hitting a King OR an Ace = 30 + 30 = 60% ?

slán,
jAH

Krusty_Clown

Devore: Dont adjust the odds of the card draw based on the number of callers

Of course. That's what I meant. Calculate your odds, and consider a mental swing, for the other factors, e.g. position, number of callers, etc.

We apply the SWOT analysis in work quite often.. Never considered applying it to Poker though..
You mean you can actually apply something you've learned in work to the real world?!

DeVore

Yeah, I was sitting there at the second last table feeling a little out of my depth and my brain was mush from playing 4 hours of poker when I decided I needed some sort of "plan" of attack on valuing my hand and the oppositions...
It kinda actually works too!

Casper, I think you are correct in your analysis....

jArgHA, No... it wont scale to 5 cards, I'll put my thinking cap on and see if I can come up with one for the full 5 card situation or at least for the usual situations you find yourself in (connected cards looking for a straight, suited looking for a flush etc).

DeV.