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Pot Odds

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  • 06-01-2004 5:48pm
    #1
    Hyzepher
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 4,659 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    There are many things that seperate a great poker player from the average Joe - one of these things is the ability to take Pot Odds into the equation. Now to understand the benefits of understanding Pot Odds you must be aware of Hand Probabilities and Starting Hands.

    Hand Probabilities is simply how likely it is for your hand to either improve or to win the pot. Starting Hands deals with the various strengths of the two pocket cards you are dealt.

    In general Starting Hands determine with hands you play and which you pass on, but their implied Hand Probabilites and Pot Odds have a lot to do with it also. As the example the old 27os is an easy one to give. As a starting hand it is the worst - 2 under cards and no straight or flush draw - hand probability is very low (low is bad). A no brainer fold.

    A more complex situation is QQ (already mentioned in a thread). A good starting hand (high pair). Probability of making a set on the flop 12% - about 8:1. But it may well hold up and win as high pair. A definite raise pre-flop. Lets say the blinds are 50 & 100 and you raise to 200 - blinds fold and 2 others call (750 in pot). The flop comes down K77 (rainbow). Now you have 2 problems the King and the possible set of 7s. The possibility of someone holding a K (with 3 players seeing the flop) is 35% or about 3:1. The possibility of someone holding a 7 (with 3 players seeing the flop) is 25% or 4:1. The possibility of making another Q on the turn or river is 9% or 12:1.

    Lets say everyone checks and the turn is a 2s. You now have a 23:1 of getting the 3rd Q.

    With the odds stacked against you - removing the option of bluffing - all pointers go towards a fold. But we have omitted one crutial factor - pot odds. We know that we have a 23:1 chance of getting the set and winning. If the pot is 750 and the bet is 25 to you - making the pot 800 (750+25+25) - then the final 25 is giving us good odds. We are 23:1 to making our card (Q) but are getting 32:1 on the pot - betting 25 to win 800. Therefore a call is not only the right option but practically compulsory. Of course we still have the option that the QQ will hold up.

    This is a raw example but it highlights that whenever we are getting better pot odds than the odds of making our hand we should take them. In the long run we will come out on top. In the example above if we were to play the same hand 24 times we would win once and lose 23 times. One win is 800 while 23 losses is (23x25) = 575. We would be up 225. I took 24 times as that was the exact odds we got on making QQQ (23:1).

    If the same is applied to all your playable hands then in the long run you will be a winner - in the long run all averages come true it is the essence of gambling and the reason the house always wins.

    Hyzepher


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