10,000 houses missing !

gurramok

From examiner

Is this one of the biggest con jobs ever undertaken by the govt, is the govt just lazy in fasttracking them or ultimately do we have to wait another 3 years before the 1st house is built ?

Sparks

I wouldn't say it was the biggest con job....

Hobbes

They had him on the radio a few hours back.. all I Can say is what a plonker. For the love of god don't vote these muppets in again.

Going on about all these buildings being made, then when asked exactly how many he says 'None'.

What was funnier he then said they weren't going to build 10,000 then he said they were committed, then he said they might build a 1000 a year but said before that maybe 300.

But the thing I couldn't get. Turns out they are selling off the affordable housing to people who will then go and let out the houses to people. WTF is the point?

mike65

Are they Victors by any chance???? :ninja:

Mike.

Capt'n Midnight

Honest gov' they were here when I wuz locking up last night ...

Please please please make Adamstown disappear too

Cork

Well, we live in a free market economy where local authorities spend millions on housing.

Local uthorities had a larger stock of houses but some were purchased by tenents under tenent purchase schemes.

Some of these were subsequently sold off on the open market making tidy profits.

Maybe Local Authorities should increase local authority rents to provide capital to build more houses?

star gazer

Nobody really expects the ten thousand houses at this stage. If there was movement or a politician putting his/her neck on the line then maybe, but it was just a PR stunt by government. If the unions let this one go it will look very very bad on their negotiating position. Promises are the stuff of legends by this government, gardaí, waiting lists, level of higher tax rate payers, 0 minimum wage workers paying income tax etc. Perhaps they will get found out, perhaps not.

Cork

Never has there been as many houses being built in this country.

Sparks

Originally posted by Cork
Never has there been as many houses being built in this country.

Cork, it's christmas. How about a present of some logical thinking and a lack of spin for once?

gurramok

Whats the number of people that can qualify to be on the housing waiting list?

Not including those that are ineligible to qualify to be on housing list in the first place as exceeding the meagre income limits but not able to afford a house !

Victor

Originally posted by Cork
Never has there been as many houses being built in this country.

And not in 30 years has there been such a need. Remember there is a third more people in the country now compared to 30 years ago.

Capt'n Midnight

Supprised Cork didn't mention that we won't need all those houses 'cos of the vacancies left by decentralisation.

gurramok

Another miraculous 3,600 houses to be provided according to rte

Grand total of 13,600...who wants to bet for when the first one is built ?

sceptre

Originally posted by gurramok
Grand total of 13,600...who wants to bet for when the first one is built ?

I assumed that the procedure went something like the following:

"We're gonna build a ghetto^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H 10 thousand houses. Monkeys, issue the press release!"

Total number of imaginary houses: 10,000

time passes

Total number of imaginary houses: 0 (in round figures)

"We're gonna build 3600 houses. Monkeys, issue the press release!"

Total number of imaginary houses: 3600

time passes...

Cork

We have the highest house building rate in Europe; twice the EU average and almost six times the United Kingdom rate.

There is a list of lands that the state is making avilable in todays Examiner.

Sparks

Originally posted by Cork
We have the highest house building rate in Europe; twice the EU average and almost six times the United Kingdom rate.

If we have 13,600 houses promised, but none built, that's a house building rate of 0.
So how is the EU average half of zero? Or the UK rate one sixth of zero?

Hobbes

I think he means private houses built, not affordable housing. Nice way to spin it though.

star gazer

originally posted by Cork
We have the highest house building rate in Europe; twice the EU average and almost six times the United Kingdom rate.

The cost of housing has risen faster than anywhere else in Europe, but why worry about that. It wouldn't take much at all to reduce the cost of sites, which incredibly are half the cost of houses here. You'd swear ireland was like Hong Kong with very little space to expand into that we have such high land values. What is incredible is that the government are attempting to take credit for doing something in the housing area. They have done nothing but allow bottlenecks to worsen and people to get stuck with huge mortgages. If the value of land had remained constant there would have been a much more resaonable house price increase, but there wouldn't have been as much profit to be made from land re-zoning then.

shotamoose

Originally posted by Sparks
If we have 13,600 houses promised, but none built, that's a house building rate of 0.
So how is the EU average half of zero? Or the UK rate one sixth of zero?

I believe Cork is talking about private sector and local authority housebuilding, both of which have increased very significantly in recent years: In 1996, 3,592 local authority and 30,132 non-LA dwellings were completed, and in 2002 there were 5,763 LA and 51,932 non-LA (source)Big increases, no? In that time the Govt has nearly quadrupled the amount of capital investment in local authority housing.

The 13,600 you're talking about are supposed to be provided under a new scheme for 'affordable' ie non-social rented housing. As 3,600 of them were only announced yesterday it seems a little unfair to be asking for them RIGHT NOW. If you've got a magic formula for instant housing that does not involve tents I'd like to see it. I'm not saying the Govt is actually going to deliver all these new houses, just that we should give it a chance.

I don't know exactly where Cork is getting his figures comparing the rate with Europe or the UK, but I'd say they're about right - housebuilding of any kind in the UK is now almost totally unresponsive to price changes.

Unfortunately, house prices in Ireland continue to rise, despite the big increases in new provision. This must be partly down to increases in the price of land, as has been pointed out, and construction inflation, which AFAIK has been running above general inflation for quite a while now (average wages and salaries in construction went up by 9% between 2000 and 2001).

Capt'n Midnight

Ireland also had the highest cost of land when it comes to building roads - we are not in Holland :mad:

Phase 1 of Finnstown (Lucan) was £65,000
Phase 3 (same site) five years later was £165,000

The land was already owned, people in the construction industry told me that the cost of materials probably dropped during that time. The cost of labour was a fraction of what was left from the £65k after paying land / materials / VAT etc. and a healthy profit. At a guesstimate the profit went up 10 fold and the quality ? How can you have an Energy star house without a thermostats, door locks are extra...

10,000 Houses with a profit margin of ~ £100,000 each
That's over €1,000,000,000 in profit !!!

Affordable housing should be built to cost - not current supply and demand market prices. Perhaps get in foreign contractors to build houses for the same price they build them in other countries (and to the same quality)

Peace

Originally posted by Capt'n Midnight

Affordable housing should be built to cost - not current supply and demand market prices. Perhaps get in foreign contractors to build houses for the same price they build them in other countries (and to the same quality)

Not a bad idea. I'm about 2 years away from buying my first house and for the love of me i really don't want to pay €300,000 shoe box.

It would be nice if the government would take some affirmative action regarding housing rather than commisioning study after study. Or maybe they are planning to build affordably housing from all the paper they are generating from the studies?

gazzer

I was lucky enough to get an affordable house from Fingal county council 18 months ago. It cost me 140,000 euro and i had to come up with 5,000 deposit, i also was able to get the first time buyers grant which was great.

They are still building affordable housing in the estate i am in, however the deposit now is hardly what i would call affordable.

The houses are now priced at 180,000 but the deposit is now 20,000 euro, i mean if you were to buy a private house the deposit needed would not be much more when you take a 92%mortgage into account.

kelle

I really feel that because property prices are unrealistically high those who haven't bought yet should wait, because interest rates can't stay low forever. Once they rise, the repayments will be impossible. I lived in London in the 80's when property prices were rising by the day. Lots of people were rushing to buy shoeboxes before the price would go up, even though their repayments per month was an average of £800 sterling for a studio apartment (the average monthly wage was about the same!!!). Then the interest rates went up without warning. These poor people just handed their keys into the relevant building societies/banks. These Building societies/banks would then sell them off for a fraction of what they were bought for. And the poor person that originally bought the house had to pay for the shortfall! I know a couple of people that happened to - one has only finished paying now after handing over her keys in 1990. So just hang on in there!

gurramok

Agreed Kelle.
I'm waiting for those interest rates to go up and for cheap houses to flood the market
I have no choice as i can't afford any house at todays prices (:
Euro/US economy is in recovery, as economics goes once they overheat in a boom situation the rates will have to go up.
I guess its a few years yet before a crisis happens but i'll be waiting in the wings to snatch up a house then

Cork

Originally posted by kelle
I really feel that because property prices are unrealistically high those who haven't bought yet should wait, because interest rates can't stay low forever. Once they rise, the repayments will be impossible. I lived in London in the 80's when property prices were rising by the day. Lots of people were rushing to buy shoeboxes before the price would go up, even though their repayments per month was an average of £800 sterling for a studio apartment (the average monthly wage was about the same!!!). Then the interest rates went up without warning. These poor people just handed their keys into the relevant building societies/banks. These Building societies/banks would then sell them off for a fraction of what they were bought for. And the poor person that originally bought the house had to pay for the shortfall! I know a couple of people that happened to - one has only finished paying now after handing over her keys in 1990. So just hang on in there!

I agree. As sure as interest rates go down, they will go up.

Banks are awash with cash at the moment and are encouraging people to take out big loans.

Some are encouraging lenders to obtain deposits/loans from parents.

How many times salary are banks lending.

The media have also a responsibility. Take a look at the ads in housing newspaper supplements?

House Price Surveys often being sponsored by banks or building soceitys.

People believe that if they don't buy today - they'll pay more tomorrow.

These mortgages could last 25 or 30 years. Do lenders even factor in interest rate rises?

The housing market is over hyped. Since joing the Euro - We cannot determine interest rates and are too low for this economy.

gurramok

And has any govt policy since 1997 been effective in stabilising house prices ?
No, as we all know, house prices have tripled.

Blaming the banks is passing the buck, there was no effective regulation of the banks in the first place.

Victor

Originally posted by gurramok
And has any govt policy since 1997 been effective in stabilising house prices ?

Actually Bacon II(?) (removing investors from the market) did.

gurramok

But..
House prices have still risen consistently year after year from 1997 to 2003.
Maybe this year they might stabilise as people watch their money flow

Would you be optimistic or pessimistic of a house price rise in 2004 no matter if it be in the cities or the countryside ?

Capt'n Midnight

anyone have those construction ready reckoners that tells you how much it should cost to build a house ?

Victor

Originally posted by Capt'n Midnight
anyone have those construction ready reckoners that tells you how much it should cost to build a house ?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=39308

Buildings Insurance:

The Society of Chartered Surveyors has "The SCS Guide to House Rebuilding Insurance" here. Pay specific attention to the notes, as they can create huge variations. You do not need to insure the market (purchase / sale) value of your home, only the amount that it would cost to rebuild it.

http://www.scs.ie/publication/hri.asp
http://www.scs.ie/publication/hritoc.asp

Perhaps €100,000 to €150,000 of the €200,000 to €300,000 price of an ordinary house goes on construction, but very dependant on circumstances.

spongebob

Originally posted by Capt'n Midnight
anyone have those construction ready reckoners that tells you how much it should cost to build a house ?

Reconstruction is c.€85 per square foot in Dublin ... thats the advice on insuring a house against fire for example . Planning levies and connection to services extra say €15k per unit nowadays? A 1000 square foot semi would therefore cost about €100k to build which sounds about right to me .

M

star gazer

still waiting for those houses.

originally posted by victor
Actually Bacon II(?) (removing investors from the market) did.

yes but didn't they come back into the market the year after it was introduced when tax advantages were re-introduced? It seemed they didn't want house price stability after all.