[Article] Israeli intelligence misread Iraq before war

Victor

Was Iraq invaded to protect Israel? I went googling "pre-emptive attack 1967" for another theread the other day and found an Israeli site that essentially said that all the wars that Isreali has fought has been about creating defensive depth - ballistic missiles and WMD counter the concept of defensive depth.

http://home.eircom.net/content/reuters/worldnews/2096884?view=Eircomnet

Israeli intelligence misread Iraq before war
From:Reuters
Friday, 5th December, 2003

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israeli intelligence miscalculated Iraq's weapons capabilities before the U.S.-led invasion, adding to a faulty threat assessment by the United States and Britain, an Israeli think-tank says in a report.

The report, published this week by Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, raised questions in Israel over how the country's vaunted intelligence services got it so wrong.

The author of the report, former air force intelligence officer Shlomo Brom, said intelligence officials in Israel, the United States and Britain believed Iraq had operational stocks of missiles with chemical and biological warheads.

But no such weapons have been found in Iraq since U.S.-led forces toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, despite months spent combing the country by the 1,400-member Iraq Survey Group.

"Israel contributed to the common consensus (in the West)...If Israeli intelligence had argued Iraq did not have capabilities and there was no real threat, it would have had some effect," Brom told Reuters on Friday.

In the light of the threat assessment, Israel ordered its citizens to seal a room with masking tape in their homes and open state-distributed gas mask kits to guard against a possible chemical missile attack.

Once unsealed, the masks and their filters would eventually need replacing at great cost to the government, the report said.

In the 1991 Gulf War, Israelis donned gas masks when Iraqi surface-to-surface missiles rained down on the Jewish state, killing one person and causing significant damage.

Yossi Sarid, a left-wing Israeli legislator, said the mistaken assessments before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March damaged the credibility of Israel's intelligence services at home and abroad.

"From now on, when we present serious data on other countries, like Iran for example, who will treat us seriously?" Sarid asked on Israel Radio.

Yuval Steinitz, a legislator who heads parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, said a special committee was created four months ago to look into the intelligence failure. But he said most of the results would be classified.

Capt'n Midnight

Or was it misdirection on their part to remove a potential rival. Depending on who you believe Isreal have about 200 Nukes (I reckon this is way too high - but there is enough evidence to suggest they have developed them in conjuction with south africia and pakistan) so it would be folly to launch an all out strike on them. They also have a lot of Biotech industiries and I've heard roumours that they were looking at Bio weapons that would target Arabs instead of Isrealies. (Daft really considering how close the races are historically)

Fionnan

That is daft that u even brought up the target biological weapons slander. R U sure its isn't the other way around. BTW ISraelis and Arabs are by in large the same race, "genitically almost identical", so it would be quite impossible to develop such a targeted weapon in theory. Of note Israel has never used chemical or biological weapons unlike Egypt(in Yemen) or Iraq(own people and Iran).

Capt'n Midnight

Yeah I did say it was daft -
but the point is they have the technology,. And like the US one of the main reason they don't use NBC is because they have plenty of conventional weapons. Remember most of the major combatants in WWII had chemical weapons but did not use the for fear of reprisal.

Also it would be a very cheap way of getting rid of Saddam....

But then again people do read sinister motives into straight forwared cock ups

But back to defensive depth - remember the "super gun"

Butch

Originally posted by Capt'n Midnight

I've heard roumours that they were looking at Bio weapons that would target Arabs instead of Isrealies

Can you mention your source for this amazing claim?

Originally posted by Capt'n Midnight

but the point is they have the technology

Again, can you backup your certainty?

Butch.

sovtek

Was it Chomsky that said that almost all intelligence agencies are doomed because they are filtered through ideology.

sovtek

Originally posted by Fionnan
That is daft that u even brought up the target biological weapons slander.

Would that be slander should we suppose that, ummm...say IRAN has chemical weapons or nuclear programs?

BTW ISraelis and Arabs are by in large the same race, "genitically almost identical", so it would be quite impossible to develop such a targeted weapon in theory.

But the question is, does someone like Sharon believe he shares the same genes as an Arab?

Of note Israel has never used chemical or biological weapons unlike Egypt(in Yemen) or Iraq(own people and Iran).

Sure about that?

Capt'n Midnight

Originally posted by Butch
Can you mention your source for this amazing claim?

Again, can you backup your certainty?

Butch.

Google
dnase isreal (mostly Genetic engineering papers - but you can see how many institues there are )
http://www.google.com/search?num=20&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&q=dnase+israel&spell=1

isreal bioweapons - 10K hits
http://www.google.com/search?num=20&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&q=israel+bioweapons&btnG=Google+Search

third link: Dead Microbiologists Linked To Ethno-Specific BioWeapons
http://www.rense.com/general40/dead.htm

Also given the number of people with jewish origins or sympathies currently or perviously employed in defense programs in Europe US and USSR and the coups by Mossad in obtaining information - it's safe to assume that they have the knowledge, means, and motive to develop Bioweapons, Chemical weapons and Nuclear ones. The point is they are a regional superpower who regularly conduct pre-emptive or punitive raids on targets beyond their borders - and yet there is very little armed response from local countries in retaliation by comparison...

Again I'll repeat a point about usage of chemical weapons - apart from WWI and the attacks on the Japanese subways - they are generally only used if the other side doesn't have them and even then they aren't used where there is a large imbalance in the anoumt of conventional weapons between the sides.

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.twf.org/News/Y1998/19981126-ArabGerm.html

Numerous reliable sources assert Israeli scientists at super-secret Nes Ziona bio-warfare laboratory near Tel Aviv are attempting to engineer deadly micro-organisms that only attack DNA within the cells of victims with distinctive Arab genes. Some leftwing Israeli parliamentarians have accused the government of `carrying on the work of Dr Mengele,' the notorious Nazi geneticist.

At least one of Israel's world-renowned scientific institutes is also said to be deeply involved in the biowarfare project. Nes Ziona roduces a wide range of chemical and biological weapons: it is reportedly larger than all Arab and Iranian biowarfare laboratories - combined.

Embarrassingly for Israel and the US, Dutch authorities recently revealed an Israeli cargo plane that crashed in Amsterdam in 1992 was secretly carrying precursor chemicals for the deadly nerve gas, Sarin. The chemicals, supplied by a US company, with full US government export approval, were consigned to Nes Ziona

...

South Africa's Truth Commission revealed the apartheid government conducted extensive efforts in mid 1980 to produce a `pigmentation' bio-weapon that would kill blacks, but not whites. South Africa's director of biowarfare stated his team had been unable to develop a weapon.

I learned of this project while in South Africa in 1988.It was referred to as a `Kafir buster,' and designed for use in urban warfare, primarily against mobs of uncontrollable rioters. My sources say South Africa was much closer than admitted to developing an `ethnic bullet.' This technology, claim a number of sources, was passed on or sold to Israel. Former allies South Africa and Israel also extensively shared nuclear technology.

...

US intelligence says Russia is also working on targeted bioweapons, likely aimed at Chinese, as well as newly engineered germs resistant to all known drugs. Many Russian scientists have emigrated to Israel, already a world leader in biology, bringing a cornucopia of biowarfare secrets with them.

Let's hope these reports are false. Ethnically targeted bioweapons are truly terrifying - and, if they spread, a excellent way to speed the human race to extinction. In fact, these `smart germs' make nuclear weapons look downright medieval.

bonkey

Originally posted by Capt'n Midnight
weapons that would target Arabs instead of Isrealies. (Daft really considering how close the races are historically)

By "Historically" you mean what exactly?

Can one trace any direct connection between the Israelis of today and the Israelites of centuries/millenia ago, other than religion???

Seriously...I don't actually know, but I started wondering about this some time ago when I discovered that Yiddish is of Germanic / central-European origins...

jc

Capt'n Midnight

Aren't you forgetting that there were Jewish gettos 60 years ago.. and there is still a low rate of intermarrige between people of different religions up north. So yes there would be genetic differneces a lot of the population would still have genes that could be called "middle eastren".
Also there are the coptic (SP) jews from Ethiopia and the Jews from other southern Russia who have returned to Isreal as well.. And then there are the orthodox Jews - I'd suppose they are a breed apart.

In general when languages mix - the new language used by both (creole?) is a mixture of the vocab. of the more powerfull with the grammer of the less powerful..

Look a little closer to home are we english because we speak english ?

I'm sure an evening spent googling would find that the Jewish genetic diversity question has been investigated already.

Fionnan

Yes i am sure Iran and Egypt used chemical weapons on other Muslims/Arabs. Check d news any modern history of the middle East.
U use Islam-on-line as a source but the article just publishes unfounded allegations that some Palestinians suffer strange symptoms so it must be Israel using chemical weapons. MAybe those Palestinian doctors could name these strange infections!
Crap.
Sovtek, grow up

Hobbes

Originally posted by Butch
Can you mention your source for this amazing claim?

Two or three years back the Israelis managed to find a sequence of DNA that matches who is decendant of Abraham (afair, been a while). If you have the DNA sequence then you are kosher. I recall in that story there was some fearmongering that a bioweapon could be made to target that/or protect that DNA.

But I haven't heard of anything since then. That is not to say that such research is going on (I am sure most countries if they could would develop such a weapon).

Victor

Originally posted by Hobbes
Two or three years back the Israelis managed to find a sequence of DNA that matches who is decendant of Abraham (afair, been a while). If you have the DNA sequence then you are kosher.

But what of all the inter-begetting since?

Hobbes

Originally posted by Victor
But what of all the inter-begetting since?

I don't think it matters, they were able to trace back a living relative to him. All the begetting would mean you were still of pure stock as it were.

sovtek

Originally posted by Fionnan
Yes i am sure Iran and Egypt used chemical weapons on other Muslims/Arabs. Check d news any modern history of the middle East.
U use Islam-on-line as a source but the article just publishes unfounded allegations that some Palestinians suffer strange symptoms so it must be Israel using chemical weapons. MAybe those Palestinian doctors could name these strange infections!
Crap.
Sovtek, grow up

Kinda like we "know" Saddam used chemical weapons against "his own people" in '88 but back then Bush and friends were blaming it on the Iranians.
Fifteen years later we "know" it was just Saddam.
So some strange gas is used on Palestinians relatively recent. I guess in 15 years we'll "know" it was just crazy Arabs talking sh1te. Being that they use 500lb bombs to assassinate "militants" they'd never use chemical, biological or nuclear weapons against Arabs...ever...

Fionnan

If the Israeli army is defeated they will use nuclear weapons as a last resort, not just on the invaders but any power that supported the invaders militarily or logistically. In 1973 Russian armies were massing on the Syrian border ready to aide the Syrians. From recently released Soviet records it seems the Soviets recieved an ultimatum threatening that ISrael would nuke Moscow via 1 way massed air raid by the IAF. Now consider that Israel has placed a satellite in Geosynchronus ORbit( ie. They are capable of dropping a payload anywhere on the world), supporting the enemies of ISrael to victory will only result in mutually assured destruction. I know scary but it certainly ensures ISrael's survival. Ie. We will probably never see 3rd world countries like Egypt and Syria deploy more tanks and armoured fighting vehicles in single battles than NAzi Germany and USSR conbined at Kursk. Nobody will supply them like the Soviets did, the Soviets believing that ISrael didn't have the bomb. ( 1973 War, 2000+ Syrian MBT's attack by surprise in the Golan vs 93 defending Israeli MBT's. ( not counting support equipment). 2000 Egyptian MBTs vs 300 ISraeli MBT at a time when western tanks were not clearly superior to the Soviet tanks as they are 2day

Capt'n Midnight

Originally posted by Hobbes
I don't think it matters, they were able to trace back a living relative to him. All the begetting would mean you were still of pure stock as it were.

Betcha it wasn't on the maternal side

3k years is about 150 generations and no one played off side ?
If you were 95% sure of the honesty of the parents then there would only be a 0.05% chance he was legit.

bonkey

Originally posted by Hobbes
Two or three years back the Israelis managed to find a sequence of DNA that matches who is decendant of Abraham (afair, been a while). If you have the DNA sequence then you are kosher.

Without going techie...is that possible? Mitochondrial tests can be used to determine a common origin amongst people, but how can they know it came from the line of Abraham?????

jc

Hobbes

Originally posted by bonkey
Without going techie...is that possible? Mitochondrial tests can be used to determine a common origin amongst people, but how can they know it came from the line of Abraham?????

jc

Think they had something with his DNA to work with. Like I said it was story over two years ago I am trying to remember.

I'll have a rummage around see if I can find it again.

Victor

Originally posted by Fionnan
In 1973 Russian armies were massing on the Syrian border ready to aide the Syrians.

Syria didn't have a border with the Soviet Union, although yes the Soviet Union threatened to overfly Turkey. This however only came about when it appeared that Israel threatened to reach Cairo and Damascus.

Originally posted by Fionnan
Nobody will supply them like the Soviets did, the Soviets believing that ISrael didn't have the bomb.

Actually they did know, because the Americans told them. Consequently Russia deployed 12 nuclear warheads to Egypt (for use on Egyptian Scuds) under Russian key in the event Israel made a nuclear strike.

Originally posted by Fionnan
( 1973 War, 2000+ Syrian MBT's attack by surprise in the Golan vs 93 defending Israeli MBT's.

I played out this scenario repeatedly in Steel Panthers II the other night and the scenario (Israeli remnant of Barak brigade (?) v Syrian 1st tank battallion) seems to refuse to let Syria even try to draw, never mind a chance to win (when I got close to taking the forward Israeli position, the game terminates in round 8 of 18).

Originally posted by Fionnan
( not counting support equipment). 2000 Egyptian MBTs vs 300 ISraeli MBT at a time when western tanks were not clearly superior to the Soviet tanks as they are 2day

Certainly Syria had poorly a trained and ill-experienced army with inferior T-62s to the Egyptian T54/55s and had fewer anti-tank missiles (Egypt's "super weapon").

However, the deciding factors in the war was Israel's superior air power, morale and determination.

Butch

Originally posted by Hobbes
Two or three years back the Israelis managed to find a sequence of DNA that matches who is decendant of Abraham (afair, been a while). If you have the DNA sequence then you are kosher

This thread is getting funnier by the minute... Tracing DNA back to Abraham???? I wonder if they had a tissue sample to match his DNA with common Israelis today after 3000 years... Perhaps the Mossad found his foreskin? Could they clone him and open "Chassidic Park"?

Hold on! Now I realise that Abraham was also the father of Ishmael. The Arab people are also Children of Abraham... Here. This would make all the Arabs kosher also?


Butch

Fionnan

Hey i've played that scenario in Steel Panthers 2. Playing as the Israelis can never win!. Can't really program that x factor in games. BTW T62 wasn't exported to Arab countries. Also the ISraeli's lost roughly 1/4 of their airforce due to the excellent Soviet maintained SAM defence in Egypt. NEw SAm 6 missile that didn't show up on the ISraeli airplanes threat recievers.
Decisive airpower only came into play, when Sharon infiltrated a battlion behind Egyptian lines and destroyed several Sam batteries ruining the interlocking defence so Israeli jets could now attack 1 Sam battery at a time without being exposed to fire from several Sam batteries at once.
Initially Sharon had led a major armoured thrust and secured a minor bridgehead (battallion (500 men))over the Suez, but they got cutoff on the wrong side of the Suez Sharon in command(the chief Israeli officer on the Sinai front, at the front line, cut off in enemy territory-now that is leading from the front and by example). The stranded ISraeli battalion used captured vehicles to pose as Egyptians once they realised they were cut off without air support(due to the Sam defence).

Victor

Do I see "adventurism" here or the tail wagging the dog?

http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jid/jid040122_1_n.shtml

USA mulls Hizbullah strikes

According to JID's intelligence sources, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is considering plans to expand the global war on terrorism with multi-pronged attacks against suspected militant bases in countries such as Lebanon and Somalia. In a week in which Israel launched airstrikes against Hizbullah positions, our regional correspondent reports from Beirut.

Sending US troops into lawless Somalia would not be new, nor is it likely to cause serious diplomatic waves. Covert US forces have periodically infiltrated the country over the past two years to conduct surveillance and even snatch suspects wanted for the November 2002 suicide bomb attacks in Mombasa, Kenya: an incident in which suspected Al-Qaeda terrorists bombed a hotel and mounted an unsuccessful attack on an Israeli airliner with shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.

However, sending US special forces into Lebanon - and in particular an area like the Bekaa Valey (which is virtually Syrian territory) and where the bulk of Damascus' military forces in Lebanon are deployed - would be an entirely different matter. Deployment of US forces in the area would almost certainly involve a confrontation with Syrian troops.

That may well prove to be the objective, since the Bush administration is currently stepping up pressure on the Damascus regime in a bid to force it to cut off all support for radical Palestinian groups that have been targeting Israel during the three-year-old intifada. Washington also wants Syria to abandon its weapons of mass destruction and to withdraw all its forces from Lebanon, a virtual satellite since Syria moved in with tacit US support in 1990 as part of a strategy to end Lebanon's civil war.

The US administration has long considered Damascus as a prime candidate for 'regime-change' (along with Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and possibly even Saudi Arabia). Syria, once a powerhouse of Arab radicalism that could not be ignored, has been seriously weakened, both militarily and politically. Washington may feel that the time is coming to oust Bashir Al-Assad and the ruling generals. Targeting Syria via Lebanon, the only concrete political influence Damascus has to show following decades of radical diplomacy, could prove to be a means to that end.

sovtek

Originally posted by Victor
Do I see "adventurism" here or the tail wagging the dog?

http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jid/jid040122_1_n.shtml

This sounds really familiar. Being that they are using Israeli tactics in Iraq already...what's to stop them using the "they attacked us and we responded" like so many Israeli incursions into their neighboring Arab states since WW2.

*sniff* *sniff* This thread is really old... *sniff* *sniff*
I don't even know if I'm off topic or not.