Assembly election count updates

Victor

http://www.rte.ie/news/assembly2003/
http://www.ireland.com/focus/nielection/index.htm

vinnyfitz

The RTE one seems much better if you want constituency details.

For variety you could also look at the fancy BBC

mike65

RTE spent most of the day talking about this, dunno why
everyone knew the score beforehand and so far its panned out as expected with the hardliners on both sides winning at the expence of moderate progessive thinking.

I like Ireland so much I'm glad there are two of them...

Mike.

eth0_

Who cares. The whole thing is a bloody fix. I know lots of people (and also my sister in law) in work from unionist areas who got polling cards despite not filling in and sending back the form which says 'If you don't fill in this form you will not be able to vote'.
My friend (living in a loyalist area, who also didn't register) received a voting card, as did his ex girlfriend who hasn't lived with him for a year and wouldn't have been on the electoral role.

You could say it's just a massive **** up but the fact loads of people from my (nationalist) village didn't get a vote despite filling out all the correct forms. My sister had this happen and was told by the electoral office that it was HER responsibility to check that the forms had been received. She hadn't even had to post them back, an electoral rep went round the doors here.

Sinn Fein have apparently made press releases about this in the past days and weeks, nothing has been done.

It'd be worse if the assembly actually MEANT anything. But it's clear to me that this province is run by ****ing bigots.

eth0_

http://www.sinnfein.ie/news/detail/2347
http://www.sinnfein.ie/news/detail/2319
http://www.sinnfein.ie/news/detail/2334

Victor

I assume from the above you have an SF alligence - they don't seem to be doing too badly.

something in common with Florida eh ??

Sinn Féin of course would never ever have been involved in vote rigging / personation :rolleyes:

That said Sinn Féin appear to have got the largest number of first preference votes in Belfast.

On another note, I see David Trimble has topped the poll in his constituency and claims that the DUP has mopped up it's extra support from the independent unionists and not taken anything from the UUP.

mm

Victor

Originally posted by Man
On another note, I see David Trimble has topped the poll in his constituency and claims that the DUP has mopped up it's extra support from the independent unionists and not taken anything from the UUP.

Yes, while the DUP appears to have an awful lot of seats at the moment - 17 of of 39 - this is largely due to running a single candidate in most constituencies outside their Antrim homeland and getting elected in the first count ahead of others, but with no one to transfer to.

gurramok

Sinn Féin of course would never ever have been involved in vote rigging / personation

Funny how you single out one party for this despite the fact that there have been no convictions of any vote rigging/personation related to any one party up north.

Accept the results if the election no matter who gets what votes, after all its suppose to be a democracy.

What on earth has florida got to do with this election, the assembly election is also in florida ??

Victor

Originally posted by gurramok
Funny how you single out one party for this despite the fact that there have been no convictions of any vote rigging/personation related to any one party up north.

However suspicions have generally beeen in areas where SF is strongest.

Originally posted by gurramok
What on earth has florida got to do with this election

SFs accusations of wrongful disenfranchisement.

eth0_

Originally posted by Victor
I assume from the above you have an SF alligence - they don't seem to be doing too badly.

No I do not have a fscking SF allegience, and who I would have voted for is of no concern to anyone but me.
Don't be so presumptious.

Victor

Originally posted by eth0_
No I do not have a fscking SF allegience, and who I would have voted for is of no concern to anyone but me. Don't be so presumptious.

Soz, my bad It was you were pimping their press releases.

And no, I have little interest in knowing how any one person voted.

eth0_

Originally posted by Victor
Soz, my bad It was you were pimping their press releases.

And no, I have little interest in knowing how any one person voted.

I wasn't pimping anything. Someone sent me those links and I thought they were pertinent.

Villain

I'm afraid the Good Friday agreement is dead in the water.

DUP are going to have more power than anyone so Mr Paisley will get his way and tha greement will collapse.

By voting for the DUP the people of Northern Ireland and said they prefer violence to politics.

The DUP and Sinn Fein will never be able to reach agreement, there were at it on Prime Time tonight and the counting wasn't even over.

Do the Unionists of the North want the violence to come back, do they want the IRA to take up arms again???.

Because believe you me Paisley will drive them to it.

chill

One of our friends suggest a few months back that we spend some time of our holidays in Northern Ireland for the first time ever. We actually gave it some thought.

I can see now that that was a delusion.

If ever there was any doubt about it this election shows clearly how sectarian the people of Northern ireland still are.

Not enough blood has been shed, they still haven't learnt a solitary thing and they want to keep at it for another couple of decades.

Well so be it I say, I'm totally bored with them and I leave their hatred, bigotry and killing to them.

I hope we and the British don't waster any more time and money on them and that our politicians stop spending so much time and energy trying to drag them in to the civilised world.


.

mike65

Originally posted by chill
If ever there was any doubt about it this election shows clearly how sectarian the people of Northern ireland still are.

In the "bad" old days it was easy for the ppl of Norn Iron to delude themselves and fool the rest of use by saying "ah its not us its just those nuts with guns if they'd only stop..." Well since the ceasefires and the GFA its become every more bloody obvious it is them, the ordinary decent citizen, thats is the real problem...

Mike.

Cork

Originally posted by irish1
I'm afraid the Good Friday agreement is dead in the water.

DUP are going to have more power than anyone so Mr Paisley will get his way and tha greement will collapse.

By voting for the DUP the people of Northern Ireland and said they prefer violence to politics.

The DUP and Sinn Fein will never be able to reach agreement, there were at it on Prime Time tonight and the counting wasn't even over.

Do the Unionists of the North want the violence to come back, do they want the IRA to take up arms again???.

Because believe you me Paisley will drive them to it.

I agree. The electorate up there has not voted for partys who have done most for the Peace Process. Trimble & Durkan were advocates of reconcilation.

SF will become more moderate to woo Southern voters. The election vote has done nothing to advance the Peace Process.

You had Southern Politicians helping the SDLP - but who they they vote for? SF.

What singal are the NI electorate sending?

Trimble & Hume won the Nobel Peace Prize.

I really don't give much hope for the SF/DUP.

I am very disillusioned with the situation.

Johnny_the_fox

DUP 30
SF 24
UUP 27
SDLP 18
AP 6
Ind 1
PUP 1
UKUP 1


Fair play to UUP, SLDP, SF - they are trying for change

the losers are my children (in the future) ....

Cork

It beggers belief. The SDLP stood by democracy on many bleak days up in Northern Ireland.

Are peoples memorys so short that they don't vote for partys that are on the middle ground?

Éomer of Rohan

A sectarian election. All I can say is that at least Cedric Bloody Wilson's NIUP lost out.

The election of Dr Kieran Deeney to West Tyrone with over 9000 votes, toping the poll is a bit of hope however.

On another not, the S. Belf and E. Belf candidates for the socialist party beat the bloody stickies and the Tories. I am quite pleased with that.

The question is now, if they form a government, will it be Dodds or Robinson who gets the post of first minister?

gurramok

Originally posted by Cork
Are peoples memorys so short that they don't vote for partys that are on the middle ground?

Well, its about time the british gov puts heavy pressure on the dup to be pro-peace, progressive and stop staying no.
The same worked to bring SF from the cold in the past.

Look on the bright side, majority(74%) of population still voted for pro-agreement parties on both sides plus alliance in assembly could help out the pro-agreement side by adding their seats

flogen

excuse my ignorance, but would it be possible for the sdlp and sinn fein to form an coalition? has this been ruled out?
its just that they are both pro-agreement, and their seats combined would give a majority, and on the otherhand, the dup are unlikely to join with the uup as the dup are anti-agreement.

or do coalitions not happen like this under the rules of the northern elections?

Flogen

Johnny_the_fox

Originally posted by Éomer of Rohan
The question is now, if they form a government, will it be Dodds or Robinson who gets the post of first minister?

Ian Paisley *should* be First Minster as leader of the DUP.... but it will not happen because DUP will not be in the same government as Sinn Fein.

<edit>
sectarian election?

Totally disagree.. because the people voted for the election.. DUP may be the main party but about 76 seats where for pro-agreeement parties.. which DUP forget.

</edit>

Victor

Unless the pro-agreement parties form the Pro-Agreement Party, I think we are in for debacle and inertia, which will get people killed.

While I disagree with the provos et al, I much prefer them talking than shooting.

Johnny_the_fox

Trimble & Hume won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trimble and Hume maybe part of the process for peace – and been awarded for the agreement but people forget the smaller parties like SF etc...

Since the first agreement – people forget

1) The IRA have a big drop in killing against the unionist community.
2) The IRA have given up weapons

Never before have we seen a movement from the IRA – which is down to Sinn Fein.

Victor

The likely result of a Westminister Election tomorrow, based on Wednesday's results (not taking into account any shift due to tactical voting) and the effects of any pacts (the last option would mean SF & SDLP giving carte blanche to the UUP in Antrim in return for say East Londonderry and North Belfast).

In practice, a final decision on boundaries for 2005 will be the real decider.

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from flogen
excuse my ignorance, but would it be possible for the sdlp and sinn fein to form an coalition? has this been ruled out?

First of all, they do not have a majority of seats and second of all there is no such thing as a one sided coalition government under the D'Hondt system; a unionist majority AND a nationalist majority have to approve every act before it can pass through the assembly, otherwise it doesn't pass.

Quoted from Jonny the Fox
Ian Paisley *should* be First Minster as leader of the DUP.... but it will not happen because DUP will not be in the same government as Sinn Fein.

Paisely does not want to be First Minister even if they DO form a government (which in his eyes can still happen if the SDLP come on board to renegotiate the agreement. Hence, it would fall to Dodds and Robinson, and whoever gets it will be the one currently emerging top in that particular power struggle

Quoted from Jonny the Fox
Since the first agreement – people forget

1) The IRA have a big drop in killing against the unionist community.
2) The IRA have given up weapons

Never before have we seen a movement from the IRA – which is down to Sinn Fein

So what? The IRA should never have moved beyond their original objectives of defending the community; in turning to liberation as a raison d'etre, they lost all legality they had, however little that was given that from the outset they were a sectarian organisation when they could have been cross community. Sinn Fein's moves were correcting past wrongs, NOT creating right from normality. The IRA should not have been killing in the Unionist community in the first place.

Cork

Sinn Fein's moves were correcting past wrongs, NOT creating right from normality. The IRA should not have been killing in the Unionist community in the first place.

This is an excellent point. The SDLP stood firm and did it's level best to advance the cause of politics up in Northern Ireland. What were SF doing???

Political Partys such as FF, PD, Lab & FG need to take on SF. It is about time they took the kid gloves off.

Blair & Ahern need to leave SF and the DUP come to an agreement. If not - Bertie & Tony need to bring in some form of joint authority.

The people had their say - SF and the DUP have now the mandate with much responsibility.

It is up to them now - to work together & come to an accomadation.

Villain

Originally posted by gurramok
Look on the bright side, majority(74%) of population still voted for pro-agreement parties on both sides plus alliance in assembly could help out the pro-agreement side by adding their seats

In a sense yes, but if you look at it closer not all UUP elected candidates are in favour of the agreement.

So basically from what I can see is nationlists by voting SDLP and SF want peace, the Unionists by voting DUP and also voting for UUP members that oppose the agreement are saying no we don't want peace we will never do a deal with the nationlists.

I think the reason people have gone from SDLP to SF is that they think SF can broker a deal, the SDLP don't have much to bargain with SF on the other hand have the weapons of the IRA to bargain with, some might say thats very sad but its true.

Tony Blair needs to stand up to Paisley, this man should not be allowed to drag the north back 5 years.

Villain

Originally posted by Cork

The people had their say - SF and the DUP have now the mandate with much responsibility.

It is up to them now - to work together & come to an accomadation.

Not possible Gerry Adams says he will talk to Paisley, but Paisley says he will NEVER talk to Gerry.

Paisley will drive the guns back into Politics.

Cork

This is why - I cannot understand after all the effort my Ahern, Reynolds, Hume, Trimble, Clinton, Kennnedy Smith etc - we are left with a political mess.

Politics is the way to go up in Northern Ireland. Both communities are as polarised as ever.

Voting for extremists is not the way to make political progrss.

Hardliners demand + demand.

This will not progess the situation up there.

Sparks

Originally posted by Cork
Blair & Ahern need to leave SF and the DUP come to an agreement. If not - Bertie & Tony need to bring in some form of joint authority.

That'd be a neat turn-around even for Bertie - who only two days ago said that the elections "are the will of the people of Northern Ireland".

Cork

Originally posted by Sparks
That'd be a neat turn-around even for Bertie - who only two days ago said that the elections "are the will of the people of Northern Ireland".

In fairness - Southern Politicians including Pat Rabbitt and Mary O Rourke did the bit for the SDLP.

At a risk of repeating myself - I feel that the result does nothing for the Good Friday Agreement.

Jeffery Donaldson is now even challanging David Trimble for party leadership.

Paisley will not talk to SF. It is all very dis-heartening.

picasso

This is all a bit depressing but there may well be some good points to take from it. An earlier poster said that this proves that the old idea about the troubles being caused by a few nutters has been shown to be a lie, and to an extent thats true . In the past people would have been afraid to publicly admit support for SF or DUP , as they would have been marking themselves as targets , so this is all really an unexpected by-product of the great changes made in the last few years.

If the DUP aren't willing to do the business , they will be punished when the next set of elections come around. The two governments need to show that GFA is the only show in town , still supported by 70% of the population. Most importantly, if certain elements of the unionist community want to retreat to the comfort zone of direct rule, they should be treated like every other part of the UK - drop the subsidies , the ridiculous number of public service jobs, and then see whether they're willing to get back on the gravy train of the past few years. Essentially , Britain is paying the lads off to keep the peace, but now they go and throw it back in their face.

So really , its not a vote for violence & extremism , it s just a bit more honesty and a lot of spoilt brat mentality.....hopefully they'll all wake up soon.

Yoda

If the Good Friday Agreement is UK government policy, couldn't the Prime Minister make Paisley speak to Adams? Invite them both secretly to a talk, and lock the door until they agree to play nice?

Peter Robinson of the DUP has given many interviews in the last few days and this mornings on Breakfast with Frost was a typical example.

He was asked what were his alternatives??
His answer was to hum and haw and then say it's not appropriate to answer that here.

In other words reading between the lines he was saying again that a vote for the DUP is a vote for direct rule and no answers.

They seem to be happy to block any assembly activity that might involve SF.

Robinson also gave a reply I've heard from him before regarding the South African peace process being an outstanding sucess with out a single gun being handed in.

Robinson said to Frost..." well I've been to South Africa and De Klerk said to me that we made an awfull mistake in South Africa, not to insist that weapons were decommissioned first " :rolleyes:

Whats he saying there?? that an Apartheid leader who to give him his due aided the restoration of a free society in South Africa has learned from unionists that the Apartheid regime could have held out there much longer if only De klerk could have insisted on decommissioning like the unionists... :rolleyes:
It's very transparent there to me, that this is playing into the hands of Sinn Féin who are at the end of the day going to look reasonable in the face of hard line unionist intransigence.

It gives Sinn Féin the legitimacy in my view to say that the likes of the DUP in terms of Government don't want a catholic about the place.

From looking at the figures it will only take further couple of percent leakage from the SDLP to SF for to make them the largest party in another election there, crazy as that may have seemed a few years ago.
Did anyone ever think they'd see the day that they would overall beat the official unionists into third place in terms of first preference votes...?

I would guess if Trimble holds out, and given that under the circumstances he has actually done well to hold his party's percentage of the vote... we will see a D'haunt mechanism with an SF first minister and an official unionist deputy in a few elections time.

That is assuming that the IRA in tandem with their advisors in SF continue to be clever and negotiate more decommisssioning in return for say the closure of a few more army bases , a scenario that might persuade more moderate unionists away from the DUP and back to Trimble.
I wonder what Paisley would think of that

mm

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from Man
Whats he saying there?? that an Apartheid leader who to give him his due aided the restoration of a free society in South Africa has learned from unionists that the Apartheid regime could have held out there much longer if only De klerk could have insisted on decommissioning like the unionists...
It's very transparent there to me, that this is playing into the hands of Sinn Féin who are at the end of the day going to look reasonable in the face of hard line unionist intransigence.

Living in a UUP constituency as I do, but having listened to DUP rhetoric for as long as anyone, I am inclined to say that the DUP, where the IRA to hand over guns tomorrow, would not agree to sit as the greater or lesser party of government with Sinn Fein in the corresponding role. The fact is that the DUP can stall for as long as they like because they get paid 70% of their wages from the seats in the Assembly regardless that it is closed, they can justify the stalling by throwing every possible object at Sinn Fein which comes to mind and there are plenty, and all the while their face with the unionist voting population increases.

The agreement has failed and was never going to work in the first place, not simply because of DUP intransigence but because it is addressing the problem from the wrong angle; we have no more patience for the politics of bigotry and universally right wing economics which the Assembly institutionalised through the D'Hondt system.

swiss

This is a worrying but not unforseen development. Without significant concessions from Sinn Féin, moderate to hardline Unionism was beginning to lose patience with that party. David Trimble did manage to keep up enough pressure on SF to force some token acts of decommissioning, but the problem has always been that if the IRA decommission 100 rifles, who is to say that they do not have another 100 rifles elsewhere. The issue is trust. A significant number of Unionists still do not trust SF enough to believe that they won't simply return to the bomb and the bullet if things don't go their way. And since making things "go their way" would involve a united Ireland, some Unionists feared that the price of continued concessions to Nationalists would be too high.

The obvious question that must be asked of the DUP is that, since they are unwilling to back the GFA, what alternative are they going to provide to the day to day governance of Northern Ireland? Are they going to sit in Westminister or Stormont?

Originally posted by Éomer of Rohan:

we have no more patience for the politics of bigotry and universally right wing economics which the Assembly institutionalised through the D'Hondt system.

Apparantly the electorate of Northern Ireland have abundant patience for such bigotry. This election, like any other in Northern Ireland, has highlighted the bitter sectarianism that still exists by weakening the moderate pro-Agreement parties.

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from Swiss
The obvious question that must be asked of the DUP is that, since they are unwilling to back the GFA, what alternative are they going to provide to the day to day governance of Northern Ireland? Are they going to sit in Westminister or Stormont?

The DUP does not and has never had another plan - even from the inception of the referendum of the Belfast Agreement, the argument against the DUP was that they had no alternative. The problem now is that people are so fed up with sectarian politics that they vote for the DUP on the Unionist side which had the most convincing (for Unionists, cf the Shankill / West Belfast seat they gained) anti-agreement rhetoric and in terms of republicans who have seen 'no movement' as a problem created by the former party of government which was the SDLP, hence the Sinners increased vote.

Quoted from Swiss
Apparantly the electorate of Northern Ireland have abundant patience for such bigotry. This election, like any other in Northern Ireland, has highlighted the bitter sectarianism that still exists by weakening the moderate pro-Agreement parties.

I beg to differ; the election of Dr Kieran Deeney as a socially progressive single issue candidate, the nine thousand votes cast for Eamonn McCann (not the greates of politicians nor the most astute yet preferable to a sectarian any day) as a Socialist Environmental Alliance candidate, the votes cast for the Women's Coalition and Green Party among others show that there is a strong anti-sectarian tendency even at this time of extreme 'tension' which I would respectfully submit is the creation of the politicians themselves rather than any condition on the ground, which has been relatively quiet of late.

It is the provocative rhetoric which causes people to panic, or near thereto and cast their votes for the parties who are presenting the jingoistic 'other way' instead of those which actually have another way, though this is absolutely in keeping with the theories of Marx (ie not until a time of crisis in capitalism etc etc). Even the parties adherent to the system such as the Workers Party, WC, PUP!!, GP and Tories were ignored this time around because of the political leaderships which get the most airtime and column inches. Those same leaderships were the ones from whence the strident political tones were emanating.

This is just one more example of the people of Northern Ireland, not being divided by a real hate between one another but being divided by the divisions which the current political parties create through their placing of, for example, non-existent deadlines and bickering and claims that 'doomsday is nigh' (scaled down obviously to fit Northern Ireland and their respectively republican or loyalist tendencies).

Evidence for this can be found in the decline of the PUP for example, traditionally a party of the 'protestant' working class which masks its own right wing intolerances with left wing economic policies which did NOT claim that things were about to fail to gain votes from worried voters.

growler

What I cannot fathom is the mindset of those who went and voted DUP. There seems to be so little support among the unionist community to try and make a decent for future for the part of Ireland they live in. My English colleagues cannot believe that Paisley is now the leader of the largest party in the north, he’s a political dinosaur, a bigot and an embarrassment to 21st century politics anywhere in the world.

The strangest thing about democracy in the north is that you can vote in a party that, in effect, opposes democratic rule. I don’t believe that the DUP will speak with SF on any level that would be a true power sharing at Stormont, the DUP will block any and all progress, resulting in some form of direct rule and a disenfranchised nationalist electorate.

Eomer mentions the provocative rhetoric of northern politics, but surely the people of the north after spending a lifetime listening to the rhetoric of both sides are able to see that a north free of widespread violence can only continue to exist if meaningful dialogue continues.

I am also fascinated by the 60 something % turnout, why would so many stay away from such an important election, who was it that stayed away...was it the moderate voters who felt there was no middle ground parties left (except a failing Alliance Party).

I can’t see what good can come of this, unless you’re a diehard loyalist willing to sacrifice all for a union jack and no future.

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from growler
What I cannot fathom is the mindset of those who went and voted DUP. There seems to be so little support among the unionist community to try and make a decent for future for the part of Ireland they live in. My English colleagues cannot believe that Paisley is now the leader of the largest party in the north, he’s a political dinosaur, a bigot and an embarrassment to 21st century politics anywhere in the world.

The strangest thing about democracy in the north is that you can vote in a party that, in effect, opposes democratic rule. I don’t believe that the DUP will speak with SF on any level that would be a true power sharing at Stormont, the DUP will block any and all progress, resulting in some form of direct rule and a disenfranchised nationalist electorate.

The mindset of the unionist population has always been determined by a fear of reprisal by the nationalist population - traditionally, up until 1922, the unionists were in a permanent minority and fears of repeats of 1641 or the seige of Derry or the Catholic Defender attacks on villages or 1798-esque rebellions have forever permeated that consciousness - and more importantly, this has always been something that extremist sectarians on the unionist side have been able to play upon - and what better to fear than the wrongs done against catholics from '22 to '72 under the Stormont government, the same wrongs which every school child in the North learns about. Why was Lundy so villified? Why was Terence O'Neill brought down? The unionists feared giving their age old opponents breathing space, meanwhile telling their own working people that this was something they should fear but that 'our' [unionist] government would look after them. Paisley began, continued and will end his career playing on exactly the same harp; give no quarter or we are in trouble.

Quoted from Growler
I am also fascinated by the 60 something % turnout, why would so many stay away from such an important election, who was it that stayed away...was it the moderate voters who felt there was no middle ground parties left (except a failing Alliance Party).

Voter apathy, voters sickened at the sectarianism which is only veneered and never quite hidden, voters who don't want any one of the present parties in government; remember that the smaller parties did not run in every constituency, not even between them. Only the larger parties did that.