Chinese Space Shot, Imperialism and the Return to the Balance of Power?

Éomer of Rohan

PNAC on the Weaponisation of Space

"Common Sense" review of Maj Howard Belotte, USAF and academic


Interesting Article from Vice President of the American Center for Defense Information (CDI) regarding Congressional Co-ordinating Committee and the 'taboo' of Space Weapons

We've discussed before the implications that a Chinese space program might have for the great geo-political powers, especially the United States - and it appears that from various pressure groups and certain military sources that the US Congress is in the process of preparing to allow the GWB regime to go ahead with the preliminary procedures for new research into space based weapons such as ASAT's and ground based lasers in breach of the 1972 ABM treaty with Moscow. These procedures fall into the following categories.

Surveillance, including the ability to detect and track space objects;

Protection, concentrating on passive measures to enhance survivability of U.S. space assets, such as electronic hardening;

Prevention, prohibiting enemies from "exploiting U.S. or allied space services" through measures such as encryption or shutter control (shutting down access to imagery satellites); and,

Negation, preventing enemies from using their own space forces, including through offensive means

The last is obviously the most far reaching and the most immediate concern. Since China have gone and launched their space ship into orbit and are therefore set to follow the same road as the USA and USSR (probably a good deal more quickly since they have a rather cash strapped neighbour to the North), then it is concievable that the Chinese might seek to redress the balance of power through a space weapons program?

I find it interesting that several reviews taken into consideration note the Spratly islands as the casus belli with the People's Republic of China rather than Taiwan - a further indication that it may be oil on the US agenda rather than other concerns?

The point I am driving at here is whether or not it is correct that any nation should possess dominance in space? One of the US Generals quoted in the first second article refers to space as the next high seas - which "first brought Great Britain to world leadership, then the United States." Sovereign territories have their own territorial waters for just that reason - but the same cannot be said of space - we have US spy satellites fly over head every day. The present US administration seems committed to driving for some sort of military presence in space outside of intelligence gathering and missile co-ordination and even moots terrorism as a cause for this. Is this not an extension of an already illogical cause and does it not strike anyone as rather Orwellian? If anything, this complete break with the policy of the USA since Eisenhower (incl Reagan) seems disturbing since a) the USA could move fast enough to prevent China even getting a foothold in space and therefore establish an even more complete world dominance and b) we are not the 'chosen people' - ie Americans.

People tell me that America has no empire and is therefore not Imperialist - but when a nation acts as though the world and it's surround is but a backyard, I feel they are looking too narrowly at the situation.

Typedef

As with many of the technological 'advances' of human kind, militarism is one of the main driving forces.

For example, much knowledge gleaned from the German regieme between 1939-1945, allowed for the development of Jet based propulsion.

It's almost certainly immoral, in the case of what I just mentioned, and in that light, if a renewed space race leads to technological achievement for humans and there's no actual war involved, then... basically, it's all good, in my opinion.

Sure, maybe it is "Imperialism" by the USA as an entity, but, rather unfortunately, Imperialism is simply a predication of human behaviour.

bonkey

Originally posted by Éomer of Rohan
...in breach of the 1972 ABM treaty with Moscow.

It should be pointed out that this is not technically true.

You cannot be in breach of a treaty that you are not a party to, which the US have not been since the end of 2001.

jc

SkepticOne

Originally posted by Éomer of Rohan
The point I am driving at here is whether or not it is correct that any nation should possess dominance in space?

It is not 'correct' that nations should go to war with one another, but they do.

Is this not an extension of an already illogical cause and does it not strike anyone as rather Orwellian?

From a global perspective militarism of any sort is illogical. Why don't all nations just get along in peace and harmony?

People tell me that America has no empire and is therefore not Imperialist - but when a nation acts as though the world and it's surround is but a backyard, I feel they are looking too narrowly at the situation.

They don't have an empire in the traditional sense, but they do sometimes persue their own percieved interests at the expense of other countries.

Typedef

I think this move from China, will perhaps prompt the Japanese and maybe India into proving their own prowess in space-faring.

With the Japanese and Chinese involved in space flight, it would most likely be a case of an "Imperialist" scramble for colonisation of the moon, between Japan, America, Russia and China.
I can't see the European Union having it's act sufficently together in time, for anything other then a peacemeal showing, should a real nationalist race get underway.

I'm not trying to relegate the EU here, but, the nations I have just mentioned, are in space for reasons of national pride, while the ESA, seems to be more about making money (and rightly so perhaps), but, that implies a space-capable entity that is national, as opposed to international (like the ESA) is much more likely to put humans in space for national pride reasons.

It's also worth noting that with Japan, actively thinking of developing a Nuclear deterrant and it looks like, finally ridding itself of the Public sector construction bloat, the most likely next nation to go human space faring is the Japanese, espeically, as a counter balance to a percieved Chinese edge in this area.

Basically I suspect that if enough nations get involved in space flight, that moon bases to some degree, will seperate the men from the boys, in a similar fashion to the old Imperialst struggle to colonise Africa... not out of any great 'profit' coming from Africa, but, as a means of Imperialist sabre rattling.

mr_angry

It seems a bit irrational to me that we should start colonising the moon in some sort of imperialistic race, before sorting out our own planet, which is a bit of a shambles.

And I'm not just talking about 3rd World countries (although they deserve a lot more help). Look at certain sections of American society - they could do with only a fraction of the whopping investment that I'm sure America would pump into a moon base if involved in a race.

I belive there's an old Irish phrase that goes something along the lines of "Put your own house in order first"!

Sparks

Originally posted by mr_angry4
It seems a bit irrational to me that we should start colonising the moon in some sort of imperialistic race, before sorting out our own planet, which is a bit of a shambles.

That's just because you don't understand the figures. Allow me:


NASA Budget 2002: $15,469,000,000
Defence budget 2002: $310,500,000,000

In other words, for 1 twentieth of the cost of running an army that brings in no net benefit for humanity, you get the space program that brings in huge benefits through direct knowlege gained, or through indirect effects like improvement in technologies and materials and so on.

And that's just doing it NASA's way, with two huge white elephants (the shuttle and the ISS) taking up fully half the budget.


(And it's at today's cut-back levels. During the Apollo days, the cost overruns on the Minuteman project would have paid for the apollo program...)

It is not 'correct' that nations should go to war with one another, but they do.

Its human nature. There will always be war. Its what most hot blooded young males desire at some point of their life, and some achieve that desire.

The point I am driving at here is whether or not it is correct that any nation should possess dominance in space?

There won't be complete dominance of Space. There can't be, since no nation currently has the technology to prevent launches into space. As for resolutions and such, The US the major backer of such movements, usually performs all their tests before introducing such restrictions. e.g. Atmospheric Nuclear explosion testing.

From a global perspective militarism of any sort is illogical. Why don't all nations just get along in peace and harmony?

Because they don't want to. Everyone wants something someone else has. When all else fails force will be used. No nation has been exempt from this, and for it to stop, would mean that the Earth is populated/ruled by non-humans. Not going to happen.

It seems a bit irrational to me that we should start colonising the moon in some sort of imperialistic race, before sorting out our own planet, which is a bit of a shambles.

From a research point of view, space holds answers to many questions that have plagued researchers for years. Basically they're looking for resources (metals & such, more capable than current construction materials)

I see space as the place where we will solve the messes created on Earth. Space holds the potential to either solve the worlds' population booms & resource shorfalls or to destroy the fragile economic/power balance we have currently.

Chinese involvement in my view is a great thing. The space race has died, and China may encourage the rest of the world to get off their collective arses, and progress with their space research, rather than referring to successes from the eighties.

mr_angry

I think you may have missed the fact that ScepticOne was being a tad sarcastic in his post. Easy to miss in text form though.

I entirely agree that there should be many nations in space, all working together for the benefit of humanity. But will that really be the case, or will it be another money-wasting space-race?

SkepticOne

Originally posted by mr_angry4
I think you may have missed the fact that ScepticOne was being a tad sarcastic in his post. Easy to miss in text form though.

Well the question "why don't all nations get along in peace and harmony?" was rhetorical. I agree with klaz that there will always be wars. Such things like space races arise from the same forces that lead to wars, imo. As such, I would much rather nations express these tendencies through space races rather than wars.

Sparks

Originally posted by mr_angry4
I entirely agree that there should be many nations in space, all working together for the benefit of humanity. But will that really be the case, or will it be another money-wasting space-race?

Depends on what the chinese want. With a quarter of the world's population and pressure on them to find resources, and no territory left to expand into down here, their long-term goal is quite obvious.

The short-term goals, though are less esoteric. Communications satellites, for example, allow them to have china-wide communications for a quarter of the cost of running cable over such huge distances. That means that they can transfer money electronically faster - which according to one report, freed up about 4.2 billion dollars worth of funds that would otherwise normally be tied up in transfers. (i.e. the money's there, but it's moving from bank to bank. On average, $4.2 billion would be in this state on any given day)

Plus there's military upgrading.

star gazer

I can't see the European Union having it's act sufficently together in time, for anything other then a peacemeal showing, should a real nationalist race get underway.
typedef

i think the EU will see itself falling behind China and other powers and realise it's own prestige on this globe will suffer as a result. One of the big problems facing the EU today is how the people of Europe perceive it, we saw Ireland reject Nice 1 eventhough we were as pro European as any country in the EU. There will need to be some achievements made by the Eu to give Europeans a sense of Pride in europe and a sense of purpose. There doesn't seem to be any one reason for the malaise affecting Germany at the moment and yet one of the most dynamic and dominant economies of the last century is stagnating and listless. Perhaps a space race for the Eu would kickstart it's economy and society out of a period of relative stagnation.

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from Klaz
There won't be complete dominance of Space. There can't be, since no nation currently has the technology to prevent launches into space. As for resolutions and such, The US the major backer of such movements, usually performs all their tests before introducing such restrictions. e.g. Atmospheric Nuclear explosion testing.

See that is the point - the USA does have the capability to do what it wants - inherent in the articles lined above is the possibility of thermonuclear war. To stop the Chinese from deploying a space based weapon, the USA would shoot it down. That is what the CDI is driving at. The fact is that the Chinese, being a totalitarian state can throw a good deal of resources behind this project while the US is hamstrung by budget cuts - until Congress in convinced by the right wing that space WILL become a battle ground whether the US gets involved there or not (which in my opinion is a militaristic distortion of the truth) so better for their interest if they are. The PRC will almost surely piggyback off Russian space development in missile defence, satellite technology and so on - and may even deal with the ESA, particularly France. This means leapfrogging forty years of research. It may not be beyond the realms of the possible that the scenario dreamed of by the US Military that they could face a 'space pearl harbour' might have a grain of truth in it - and let's remember that from space, we can't touch them. Should Orwell be proved correct, it's theoretically possible that we could be seeing the beginning of a path that leads to bigger infringements of civil liberties in the interest of security.

Quoted from Mr Angry
It seems a bit irrational to me that we should start colonising the moon in some sort of imperialistic race, before sorting out our own planet, which is a bit of a shambles.

cf the stricken poverty in Imperial Europe and the resources spent in for example the opium wars on the other side of the globe for no reason other than to heighten the have/have not divide.

antwalsh

Lads, what are ye all talking about -


"shooting down attempts by China to get into space" - I'd like to see anyone try.

"With a quarter of the world's population and pressure on them to find resources, and no territory left to expand into down here, their long-term goal is quite obvious" - what, they're going to all live on the moon!!!!!!!

"Look at certain sections of American society - they could do with only a fraction of the whopping investment that I'm sure America would pump into a moon base if involved in a race." - Who do you think will be doing the work?

"In other words, for 1 twentieth of the cost of running an army that brings in no net benefit for humanity, you get the space program that brings in huge benefits through direct knowlege gained, or through indirect effects like improvement in technologies and materials and so on." - The benefits to the world of America having a strong army are too many to mention here. Also alot more technology comes out of the military than NASA.

I think it's a good thing that China is developing a strong space program. No good will be felt from it for a while as they are using old technology and are still a good bit behind the west. China have for too long been hiding from the world. I agree that the growth of China as a world power will balance out the US's dominance at the moment which isn't good.
The reasons for China's emergance as a space power aren't all good though. The pride generated by this amongst the chinese is being used by the government there to keep the people happy so as to maintain power. Eventually though, hopefully, they will emerge as a strong democracy. This is China's century - time to catch on to their coat tails!

Sparks

Originally posted by antwalsh
"shooting down attempts by China to get into space" - I'd like to see anyone try.

From the EE Times:

The nation's largest intelligence agency by budget and in control of all U.S. spy satellites, NRO is talking openly with the U.S. Air Force Space Command about actively denying the use of space for intelligence purposes to any other nation at any time—not just adversaries, but even longtime allies, according to NRO director Peter Teets.

At the National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs in early April, Teets proposed that U.S. resources from military, civilian and commercial satellites be combined to provide "persistence in total situational awareness, for the benefit of this nation's war fighters." If allies don't like the new paradigm of space dominance, said Air Force secretary James Roche, they'll just have to learn to accept it. The allies, he told the symposium, will have "no veto power."

Beginning next year, NRO will be in charge of the new Offensive Counter-Space program, which will come up with plans to specifically deny the use of near-Earth space to other nations, said Teets.

"With a quarter of the world's population and pressure on them to find resources, and no territory left to expand into down here, their long-term goal is quite obvious" - what, they're going to all live on the moon!!!!!!!

No, they're going to mine it.
And work on solar power satellites, an idea for generating electricity at one-fifth the cost of conventional means, without pollution, that was worked out in the 70's but dropped in favour of the shuttle.

"Look at certain sections of American society - they could do with only a fraction of the whopping investment that I'm sure America would pump into a moon base if involved in a race." - Who do you think will be doing the work?

People with a lot more than a basic high school education.

"In other words, for 1 twentieth of the cost of running an army that brings in no net benefit for humanity, you get the space program that brings in huge benefits through direct knowlege gained, or through indirect effects like improvement in technologies and materials and so on." - The benefits to the world of America having a strong army are too many to mention here.

Which is why the quote was "for humanity". America's army has been a net liability for humanity.

Also alot more technology comes out of the military than NASA.

Nope. Check NASA's technology transfer reports.

I think it's a good thing that China is developing a strong space program. No good will be felt from it for a while as they are using old technology and are still a good bit behind the west.

That "old technology" is far better than anything that the west has. Compare the Soyuz safety record with the Shuttles. Look at the engineering of the two. Look at the economics. And then ask which you'd copy...

The reasons for China's emergance as a space power aren't all good though.

No, but most of the short-term goals are good for China and the long term ones are good for everyone.

The pride generated by this amongst the chinese is being used by the government there to keep the people happy so as to maintain power.

No, that's what the tanks are for.

Eventually though, hopefully, they will emerge as a strong democracy.

Are you high? China? Democracy? After 4000 years of recorded non-democratic government and with a seriously hard-line government that ordered tanks to attack students on live world-wide TV?

antwalsh

Interesting article Sparks. Fairly gung-ho talk from them. Of course it is the NROs job to plan for all possibilities. It is the government who will have to carry them out. There is no possibility of the US stopping China/Russia/EU from putting satellites into space. That is never going to happen unless the US want to completely **** up their relationship with the world. The outcome of such an action from the US would be pretty chaotic. No doubt they are developing strategies to take out other countries satellites in times of war but they will nnot stop them from putting them up in the first place. How can they? For one thing China are starting to own America's ass. Bit by bit the US are becoming heavily in debt to China and if it keeps up for much longer China could break the US's back.

What exactly is the story with the moon by the way? Is it like the Antartica where nobody owns it and can't exploit it either?

What I meant by "certain sections of American society" being benefitted by a gigantic investment in space (or any other project for that matter) is that a lot of jobs will be created from it. Not all jobs will be for the brainiacs. Industries will be supported by this investment. All these people being paid directly will spend their money in shops etc thereby extending the benefits. It's simple economics. It's been a great strategy of the US since World War 2 to create jobs like this.

How has America's army been a "net liability" for humanity? What was it that created the peace for most of the time since WW2 (fragile as it was)? It was the fact that there were 2 superpowers. One balancing out the other. Without the American army being so strong god knows what the world would be like now. They haven't been perfect, far from it in fact but without them it could have been a lot worse.

AS far as the fact that China hasn't been a democracy for the last 4000 years - what has that to do with anything? Times they are a changing. China has opened their doors to the west. The chinnese are wide open to western influences now. They have the internet now. They are leaving China and seeing the world - there is supposed to be 50,000ish of them in Ireland at the moment. I didn't say they would get democracy anytime soon but things like that can change pretty quickly sometimes - just look at Eastern Europe at the start of the '90's. Granted these are mainly the youth who are being influenced by western ways so it will take some time.

Sparks

That is never going to happen unless the US want to completely **** up their relationship with the world.

Yes, that's quite unlikely.
*coughIraqcough*

What exactly is the story with the moon by the way? Is it like the Antartica where nobody owns it and can't exploit it either?

Effectively, yes.
The Outer Space Treaty is the yoke you want to read...

How has America's army been a "net liability" for humanity?

Ask an Afghan. Or an Iraqi. Or a Costa Rican. Or a Venezulan. Or a Niceraguan. Or a Cuban. Or a Chilean. Or... well, you get the idea.

What was it that created the peace for most of the time since WW2 (fragile as it was)?

The correct question is : who was the largest active opponent to democracy across the world since WW2. The answer (from their actions, not their words) is america.
To see what I mean, turn on BBC2 NOW to see that documentary about the attempted coup against Chavez filmed by Irish journalists.

mr_angry

Not all jobs will be for the brainiacs. Industries will be supported by this investment.

Yeah. High-tech industires manufacturing highly-reliable products for use in space. Not the homies in the ghettos, and the bloke living in the cardboard box in the street.

America are already in debt to everyone. Didn't seem to stop them spending another $87 billion on one project recently.

With a bit of luck, it will lead to a fairer and more balanced world society, but you'll have to forgive me for being sceptical, especially since neither side seem to have a particularly good human rights record lately.

bonkey

Originally posted by Sparks
Effectively, yes.
The Outer Space Treaty is the yoke you want to read...

Wasn't some bloke selling land on the moon over the internet some years ago (maybe he still is)??? When this Treaty was brought up, he sagely pointed out that he was neither a signatory, nor even a nation, and thus was not bound by it.

Anyway...thats all off-topic. I must need more coffee.

jc

and let's remember that from space, we can't touch them.

At the moment we can't touch anyone.

Technology at the moment means any nation in space is free from harm, but their homelands aren't. I doubt very much that any nation will do anything in space, with the threat of obliteration of their home state.

Should Orwell be proved correct, it's theoretically possible that we could be seeing the beginning of a path that leads to bigger infringements of civil liberties in the interest of security.

This could happen regardless of the space factor. Its just the path that many nations cultures are heading.

"With a quarter of the world's population and pressure on them to find resources, and no territory left to expand into down here, their long-term goal is quite obvious" - what, they're going to all live on the moon!!!!!!!

I've seen ideas of space stations and such that operate around the moon. They were disregarded for around Earth since these theorists expected too much space travel & docking of space craft occuring around earth to be feasible. All good in theory, but the idea is not to use the surface of the moon itself, except for mineral extraction.

Are you high? China? Democracy? After 4000 years of recorded non-democratic government and with a seriously hard-line government that ordered tanks to attack students on live world-wide TV?

Well Russia has somewhat reached Democracy, and the Russian governments over the decades has performed acts just as bad. Admittedly Russia made a bad transition, but China could do it better. Don't discount it from happening. People's attitudes are changing, and its becoming harder to restrain peoples ideas, & ideals. China may very well change in your lifetime.

Yeah. High-tech industires manufacturing highly-reliable products for use in space. Not the homies in the ghettos, and the bloke living in the cardboard box in the street.

Well nothing is happening for them now, so any space ventures should be an improvement.

China's space programme whether military or civilian will be a good thing. For far too long the western nations have dictated what happens in the world, with treaties, most of them ignore when it suits. Since China never signed the treaty, they're not obliged to be restrained by it. Why should it? They're an independent nation and they're doing what they see as being benefitial to their nation. Every nation out there at the moment including the US & the UK, will do what they can to benefit themselves.

Sparks

Originally posted by bonkey
Wasn't some bloke selling land on the moon over the internet some years ago (maybe he still is)??? When this Treaty was brought up, he sagely pointed out that he was neither a signatory, nor even a nation, and thus was not bound by it.

True - but how many people have bought deeds to the Brooklyn Bridge? Same deal

mr_angry

its becoming harder to restrain peoples ideas, & ideals

On the contrary, technology is making it easy for minorities to opress the majority, given the right conditions. The Chineese government could easily opress a few thousand people with a few tanks.

Well nothing is happening for them now, so any space ventures should be an improvement.

I don't see your logic there. My thinking was the American government could spend the money on helping them DIRECTLY, instead of spending it on another space race. That would improve their situation, yes?

On the contrary, technology is making it easy for minorities to opress the majority, given the right conditions. The Chineese government could easily opress a few thousand people with a few tanks.

I'm afraid i disagee. All it takes to connect to the internet, is a computer of variable means, and a connection. Get a laptop, and a wireless connection, and you're free from most interference. The freedom to connect to the largest repository of knowledge in the world is available to all.

Oppressing a nation takes more than showing up with a few tanks. I seriouly doubt the chinese government is naive enough to try anymore. they know that such actions create martyrs not victims. Now before everyone jumps down my throat, i'm not saying the Chinese gov will stop using force to restain their population, but they will need to find better and more subtle ways of doing so.

I don't see your logic there. My thinking was the American government could spend the money on helping them DIRECTLY, instead of spending it on another space race. That would improve their situation, yes?

Guess i misunderstood your comment. Yes, it would improve their situation, or it might be a waste of resources. I'm not going to get into a morality debate, but i see the resources being better off spend on a space race. But then thats just me.
Its sounds nice to say lets give 50 million to the poor, and the homeless, but will it really change anything? Progress in Space might actually improve everyones life worldwide.

bonkey

Originally posted by klaz
I'm afraid i disagee. All it takes to connect to the internet, is a computer of variable means, and a connection. Get a laptop, and a wireless connection, and you're free from most interference.

Except for interference from the people supplying the connection, which in China is the government.

jc

Jaffus

I Lived in China for some time saw alot of hungry people...some working in food stalls for 10 Euro a week..I saw in Shanghai hidden away form the richer people eyes and kept away for their precious city center ruins of houses still occupied by the poorest of their peoples...they spend their money in that city building massive skyscapers with little other purpose than housing foreign bussiness's or goverment deparments and state runned media.........when I heard China put a man into Space it turned my stomach to see them going down the same path that Russia took and lead to its demise.....the Chinese must have grown bored wasting money building useless Monuments and Skyscrapers and decided that shooting their money into other space will be a better way to show the rest of the world that China is one of the big boys on the block.