Death of Eire, IRish downfall in Euroland nightmare!!

TetsuoHashimoto

Let me first start be telling you all a story, it is a story from a different time and a far away land, but it is not a myth or some fabrication.
This is a real story about the slow and steady death of a nation, and the problems faced by another people.

Japan

The country Japan was once without problems, the 70s fast electronics, robotics, the 80s computers and fashion and alive, the greatest nation, rich, healthy, lively and wealthy people had jobs and good wages. The Japanese stock market was worth more than all the world's stock markets combined, the country had a massive GDP of 5,197 Billion ( Dollars/Euro) and high inflation, people thought they would live happy ever after.

But no

There were problems hidden under the surface. Serious inflation bad bank practice and high price hikes, a little corruption, people paying a lot 4 property and land, and an over valued over priced country. Add all these factors and it gives you the world's worst recession, an 11 year recession that has been the slow death of Japan.
We had felt high cost of housing, periods of inflation, rises and hikes in the price of goods and services, a feeling that you're getting f*cked over for your hard earned money. Prices up again, and the real value of the cash in a consumer's pocket is constantly under pressure as everything becomes more expensive.

Back in the 80s if U won the "Lotto's" million you could purchase 5 very nice big houses in Eire.
In 1996 if an Irish lad won the lottery million, he could purchase 5 very nice big houses in Ireland.
In this day if you won the lotto, it isn't worth a sh*t. Even One million would get you into trouble, a house in Dublin, maybe an ugly one, and then what? A roof to fix?.. bills to pay? And a house that still looks like a dog kennel?
Where did Japan go wrong? Land!! the stupid land frenzy that almost bankrupted Japan in the early 90s. The link between land speculation and future debt problems is so well known that it is amazing that we need to re-examine it!! The Irish central bank warning this week about houose prices its worth examining the land problems in Ireland and how it eats and devalues the currency in our pockets.
The Japanese bubble Economy was great, everyne had jobs, but then things began to run away, a bad yen, sh*tty rip-off price hikes, low interest rates fueling booming land prices. Japan once had it all but now Taiwan, Korea, China now make all the world's electronics, CDs, radio.. No one needs to be reminded of the 11 year recession that has slowly killed Japan.
Soon Ireland should follow, with Slovakia, Estonia, and other Eastern Eu states now producing whatever goods and services that Eire once did.
Japan still suffers because of price hikes and high land, flat and house prices that happened some 11 years ago, and it still feels the pain because of political dishonesty that happened 11 years ago,
any day soon Ireland should follow.

Kone

I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill, and think things over

I honestly believe that TetsuoHashimoto is pretty much correct there - but it's not like we'll all be out on the street starving if it happens!

BuffyBot

Vote with your feet, vote with your feet...

sinclair

Revolution!!!

Grom

Power to the people

simu

I honestly believe that TetsuoHashimoto is pretty much correct there - but it's not like we'll all be out on the street starving if it happens!

Good point. As far as living standards around the world go, the Japanese still have a pretty good lifestyle.

Dustaz

Hes back!

and hes more insane than ever!!!


FYI to those who dont know: TetsuoHiro****o is madder than a bottle of crisps.

Cromwelly

Japan had a quality based work ethic, large auto manufacturing sector, high tech workforce and plenty of inward investment.

Ireland had peat bogs, a couple of yank manufacturing plants and an inbuilt desire to get pissed.

Ireland can't lose what it never had in the first place.

Originally posted by Cromwelly
get pissed.

GOOD IDEA!

Thanx 4 The Fish

Originally posted by Dustaz
Hes back!

and hes more insane than ever!!!


FYI to those who dont know: TetsuoHiro****o is madder than a bottle of crisps.

MMMMmmmmmmmmm bottle of crisps...

BuffyBot

Originally posted by Dustaz
Hes back!

*Makes a note to check lunar cycle*

spongebob

Tetsuo is pretty much right ...... may I make a few further points.

1. The Japanese stockmarket tracked land prices and crashed with them, the Irish stock market is not that intimately linked with a possible land price drop, in fact property stocks have done badly , Dunloe, Sherry Fitz and Green to mention a few.

2. Japanes Land prices were absolutely insane in 1990 or so and make ours look rational. Our house prices are probably up to 40% above fair value IN SOME AREAS and maybe 20-25% overall.

3. The corrective shock will be nasty , especially if you work for a bank but the decoupling of land and other assets has taken place in the 'real economy' so we would bounce back quicker.

4. Ireland is 30 years behind Japan on its demographic and we are prepared to IMPORT people (workers) if the workforce ages. The Japanese are very homogenised as a country and have a high dependency ratio ....albeit one with high savings except that point 1 occured.

5. The Japanese refused to do what the west does and simply written off the bad debt to get the pain over with in 2 years. The zombie companies make it difficult to get an accurate assesment of Japanese economy

M

joseph brand

Sing along with me,

(Altogether) 1,2,3,4,

'I think I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so,

[Repeat]

Now laugh.

People here have nice food, cars and houses and we still moan, winge winge winge, WELL WHY DON'T YE CRY ABOUT IT!!

passive

joseph brand Sing along with me,

(Altogether) 1,2,3,4,

'I think I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so,

[Repeat]

Now laugh.

....god i hate that song...no matter how well it fit into context there is no excusing that type of behaviour >_<

People here have nice food, cars and houses and we still moan, winge winge winge, WELL WHY DON'T YE CRY ABOUT IT!!

also: i don't know much (anything) about economics...but didn't what you just said completely ignore the original posters point about how theres a strong chance of the economy turning sour because of land prices and overvaluing...

you basically just said "ah its good now, you're stupid to have any kind of foresight!"

though...like i said..i have no idea about economics

BigEejit

/Gets out his high horse and dusts him off ... *jump*
But werent Japanese land prices *always* mental, they just got a bit more mental ... unlike Ireland, where land prices were reasonable (know people who bought 1/2 acre for <£3000 in 1995) and are now INSANE (they have neighbours now who paid €80,000+ for the site beside them last year) .... this is in rural Ireland, 60+ miles to the nearest town of more than 3000 people... We are in a situation where land prices are incredibly overvalued....but our society and situation are significantly different from the japanese before their recession. .. who knows where our economy will be in a year or two ... I fear the worst...

I generally dont believe auctioneers/property economists ....they have too much of a vested interest, they will always talk up the property/land situation in Ireland, make it sound steady and uneventful .... just always increasing in value .... the problem will occur when supply outstrips demand, when will it happen?? that is the question!! ... I believe its happening in some areas already (outside of the major urban areas) ....in Ballincollig, there are houses available to rent for the last 5+ months (in my estate and in Classis lake (a big sprawl of an estate, overpriced shíte housing)) I know a guy emigrating to Australia, he has been told to look for €700 for a 4 bed detached, looking for more will scare off the scarce renters .. that sort of thing puts the heebie jeebies into investors, which leads to less buying, which hopefully will lead to a stop in increases or even *blesses himself* a DROP in prices.... because lets not kid ourselves here, a LOT of houses are bought by investors ..especially since 2001 when the stocks dropped like stones and still now when stocks are uncertain ....

For instance, i know for a fact that the new bunch of 32(?) 2-bed apartments on the mallow side of the iniscarra roundabout are going for €175,000 off the plans ... they are being marketed to investors ... if you go into the show-apartment you will be told that you would be able to rent it out at a profit of €100 - €200 per month.... dunno yet how many have been sold .... not going like the proverbial hotcakes though...

[edit] Ack ... should read Macroom side of the Iniscarra roundabout...
[/edit]

/me feeds the high horse and puts him back in the cupboard