Premiership odds

p.pete

As a Liverpool fan I have been responding to several different threads regarding them. Every now and again someone comes up with the brilliant idea that Liverpools chances next season are similar to Blackburns - or at the moment teams like Newcastle and Chelsea are bigger teams with better immediate prospects.

Naturally Newcastle and Chelsea have better prospects in CL as Liverpool are not in it, but in terms of how things are going to work out this season, the Premiership is the only real yard stick that can measure all top English teams. Why the Carling Cup can't be used I just don't know

The bookies are usually rational people when it comes to predictions - so as a comparison, I'd like to use the bookies to rationalise a lot of the crap that is getting written (naturally there is an opportunity here to add more to the crap;) ).

William Hill (premiership winner)
Man Utd 1/1, Arsenal 13/8, Liverpool 7/1, Newcastle 9/1, Chelsea 14/1, Blackburn 100/1.
Bet365
Man Utd 11/10, Arsenal 6/4, Liverpool 7/1, Newcastle 8/1, Chelsea 16/1, Blackburn 100/1.
Paddypower
Man Utd 11/10, Arsenal 13/8, Liverpool 15/2, Newcastle 8/1, Chelsea 16/1, Blackburn 200/1.
Ladbrooks
Man Utd 1/1, Arsenal 7/4, Liverpool 6/1, Newcastle 7/1, Chelsea 16/1, Blackburn 100/1.

What do ye reckon? (I'm especially interested in comments from the "Blackburn are an equal footing" people)

BKtje

i reckon odds will change before the start of next season as more players come/go.

I wont make a decesion till know final teams and stuff and theres a week left in the premiership

Sposs

I'd stick a few euro on Newcastle expecially if they get Stephen Carr and maybe another good Midfielder,good odds all round.

Chelsea for one of the cups aswell.

Benbaz

Originally posted by p.pete
What do ye reckon? (I'm especially interested in comments from the "Blackburn are an equal footing" people)

Just because the Bookies have Liverpool down as a shorter odds bet than Blackburn doesn't mean that they reckon Liverpool are a better team than Blackburn. All this shows is that Bookies realise that there are more Liverpool fans, and that they are gonna be betting more. And when it comes to Bookies setting odds, they take one factor and one factor only into account.....

The more bets placed = The lower the odds given!!!

You only have to look at the Eurovision for that, England always have themselves as favourites as do Ireland!

B.

p.pete

Fair enough - for all the typing that went into my argument I thought it would stand up to more than 2 r 3 posts.

Agreed, bookies are out to make money - I had arguments lined up, but I'll give up - more people will bet on Liverpool than Newcastle or Chelsea because they are a bigger club.

LizardKing

Originally posted by Benbaz
Just because the Bookies have Liverpool down as a shorter odds bet than Blackburn doesn't mean that they reckon Liverpool are a better team than Blackburn. All this shows is that Bookies realise that there are more Liverpool fans, and that they are gonna be betting more. And when it comes to Bookies setting odds, they take one factor and one factor only into account.....

The more bets placed = The lower the odds given!!!

You only have to look at the Eurovision for that, England always have themselves as favourites as do Ireland!

B.

Thats not true Bookies take more than 1 factor into account when setting odds.... They Look at statistical analysis of past seasons and form too... Saying they look only at the amount of supporters is blatent crap IMO

Benbaz

Originally posted by LizardKing
Thats not true Bookies take more than 1 factor into account when setting odds.... They Look at statistical analysis of past seasons and form too... Saying they look only at the amount of supporters is blatent crap IMO

Ok fair enough, they do take other factors into account but c'mon you can't deny that the "biggest" factor that bookies take into account is the amount of money place on any team/horse etc.!!!

p.pete

Found the best odds for winning the Carling Cup (Worthless to the layman:cool: )
Pool 8/1
ManU 12/1
Chelsea 12/1
Newcastle 14/1
Arsenal 14/1
Blackburn 16/1

You could nearly 2 r 3 of them and still have good odds.

Bannor

Originally posted by Benbaz
Just because the Bookies have Liverpool down as a shorter odds bet than Blackburn doesn't mean that they reckon Liverpool are a better team than Blackburn. All this shows is that Bookies realise that there are more Liverpool fans, and that they are gonna be betting more. And when it comes to Bookies setting odds, they take one factor and one factor only into account.....

The more bets placed = The lower the odds given!!!

So you're saying that if Leicester were to sign the entire Real Madrid squad for the forthcoming season (a ridiculous suggestion I know but stay with me ) their odds wouldn't change change from 2000/1 to 2/1 or less?

Benbaz

You could put something on all six and still get a return, providing of course no-one from outside the six one!!!

GuanYin

Originally posted by p.pete
Fair enough - for all the typing that went into my argument I thought it would stand up to more than 2 r 3 posts.

Agreed, bookies are out to make money - I had arguments lined up, but I'll give up - more people will bet on Liverpool than Newcastle or Chelsea because they are a bigger club.

*chuckle*

Benbaz

Originally posted by Bannor
So you're saying that if Leicester were to sign the entire Real Madrid squad for the forthcoming season (a ridiculous suggestion I know but stay with me ) their odds wouldn't change change from 2000/1 to 2/1 or less?

“a ridiculous suggestion”

You said it!!!
But I’ll humour you anyway. Right, if, and that’s a big “IF”, if Leicester were to sign the entire Real Madrid squad for the forthcoming season (God, if even sounds worse typing it!!) even more people would start betting on them to win, thus reducing their odds, thus proving my point!!! God, has no one ever been to the races or the dog-track and seen that the more bets that go on, the more the odds are reduced!! I don’t think it’s a difficult principle to comprehend!!

B.

LizardKing

I think the point people are trying to get past you is that there are other factors which affect Bookies odds .. something your first post did not really allow for ...

And when it comes to Bookies setting odds, they take one factor and one factor only into account.....

So now we have
- Amount of bets placed / imagined will be placed
- Statistical Analysis of past results
- Massive change of personnel e.g new manager , players

Any others ???

Benbaz

Originally posted by LizardKing
I think the point people are trying to get past you is that there are other factors which affect Bookies odds .. something your first post did not really allow for ...

I conceded that fact!! Welcome to pedantic city!! lol

Originally I was only answering the post made by p.pete (short thread eh? lol) stating that if the bookies had Liverpool down as a shorter odds bet than Blackburn did that not imply that Liverpool had a better chance of winning the Premiership than Blackburn,

and I was just trying to point out that odds are not just created on how good a team were, but there are other factors associated. And before anyone starts again, I know I shouldn’t of said “one factor and one factor” I was only trying to state that imo the amount of money that is put down on a team is the biggest factor bar none.




B.

LizardKing

Sorry I see now where you conceded your first point ... and of course I know its just your opinion but I'd be of the mind that the bookie comes up with a teams odds first based on analysis and other factors and then these odds change based on the number of bets placed and the teams form or the form of other teams ...


Maybe I'm wrong :rolleyes:

p.pete

Originally posted by Benbaz
I conceded that fact!! Welcome to pedantic city!! lol

LOL, how appropriate for a thread started by me, thats where I get the extra p from in p.pete:D

Definitely odds go down as more money is put down - ie. the stakes are raised the odds reduced, the chance of incurring losses avoided - the bookie accrues more earnings.

At this stage I would say the amount of money that has been put down so far may not be that great. As LizardKing says they most likely start off with something reasonbly scientific (or at least rational) and then later as more money is put down the odds change.

Anyone know how heavy the betting would be at this stage of preseason?