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FTB NAP of the day thread

  • 26-07-2005 2:33pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937
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    Gonna put up one of these as often as I can and I'll update the strike rate.

    1t choice is Waterways in the 4 O Clock at Goodwood. Was told to keep an eye on this one at York but he never ran. I think he has great credentials in this company and I expect him to win....

    Hopefully a good start to this.


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 masterK
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    That's one of my 2 backs at Goodwood so fingers crossed. The weight concession she receives from the Masta Plasta and Strike up the Band will make all the difference in my opinion.

    The other horse I'm backing and probably my NAP of the day is Balkan Knight at 4:35.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 blahblah06
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    Fade are you not worried about the draw?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    I think she has a pretty good draw


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 blahblah06
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    fade2black wrote:
    I think she has a pretty good draw


    i like Bow Bridge


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 blahblah06
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    blahblah06 wrote:
    i like Bow Bridge


    phew thank god i covered with strike up the bank at 6/1


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Turns out she had a pretty crap draw blah blah...she ran a super race though...I backed Strike up the Band in every race but this one and I guess I deserved to have my fingers burnt. The way Waterways ran on though was pretty impressive. Great run by Eoin O Neill's horse too, his 2 year olds are really in flying form.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 blahblah06
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    :D Ye mate the only thing i didnt like about this horse was its draw. and i seemed to be right. a lot of ppl were going for pickett ew. didnt go myself. im sure we will get them next time :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Waterways has always been a rocket from the gate but it seemed to take it out of him tracking over.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    DAY TWO

    1 Selection
    0 Winners

    I was going to give today a miss but it is the nap of the day thread so we'd better hunt for something.....Today I hope to have found a 4-1 winner in the shape of 16-1 shot Fourth Dimension. I think this horse has a super chance to place in this race and the obvious concern of whether or not he'll get this extended trip in this ground is lost on me, due mainly in part for my respect for the trainer. Has a rating that sees him with a very loud shout in this race and even though I'm hoping for a place I think a win would not be surprising.

    FOURTH DIMENSION
    GOODWOOD 2:10


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 masterK
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    Good luck with that one Fade. Your a brave man picking anything in that first race at Goodwood, it's impossible to know how bad the ground is really going to be. If it is really soft I wouldn't be surprised to see some very odd results at Goodwood today. I'll be watching the first couple of races before deciding whether to back anything.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    True enough, that's why I was going to avoid the day all together...have always like this horse though and the route that Dandy has travelled with him recently is very interesting and I'd be kicking myself if he ran a great race today and I wasn't involved. Probably brave to throw the word nap at a race like this but there isn't one race today where you could call an obvious winner so may as well chance your arm in one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Ok 2 selections 2 losers. Not satisfactory....Let's kick it off today.

    Ok not a very original one but I've been talking about this horse for a while now...

    CLOONE RIVER

    I don't need to tell you where and when he's running, I don't even have to tell you much about why I think he'll win. Accordian Etoile carries top weight for him...same weight as last year..trained exclusively for this race....Ansar and Cloone River complete big race doubles....END OF.

    I'm really very confident about this horse winning so it is with great pleasure that I start on the winning thread with...

    CLOONE RIVER

    That's right....

    CLOONE RIVER

    D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 Morgans
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    I echo fade's confidence.

    Cloone River.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,807 chump
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    It is just not a bit too predictable if he does it?

    I just can't see it going the punters way, I really cant...

    I'm on Definate Spectacle & Dabiroun both e/w...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 Morgans
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    Chump, just a query

    So hypothetically if there is a huge gamble on Definite Spectacle and Cloone River drifts as a result, and the pair are sent off joint favs at 7/2, then Cloone River has a better chance of winning?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,807 chump
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    Morgans wrote:
    Chump, just a query

    So hypothetically if there is a huge gamble on Definite Spectacle and Cloone River drifts as a result, and the pair are sent off joint favs at 7/2, then Cloone River has a better chance of winning?

    There's no hypothetical in what I said Morgans.
    The money is down for Cloone River.
    He has been talked up for this race in anything I've read.

    2/3's of the money on betfair is for him, when the market gets moving this will probably drop, but it wont dip under 50%...

    I hope he wins, he's the punters choice and it will put a big dent in the bookies pockets, for me though it's too much to hope for.

    I'm not assessing probability. I'm following my gut.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 Morgans
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    I understand Chump, but horses dont know wht price they are, unless they are trained by Charles Byrnes!, its interesting as what is in convetional terms seen as a sign of support for the horse, you see as a negative.

    Cloone River might well lose but its not because there was too much money supported on him. Your gut instinct might be right, but IMHO for the wrong reason.

    I think he has everything in his favour today, and while there are several decent amimals in oppostion. Anything above 3/1 would be a value bet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,807 chump
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    Well the probability is that my instinct will prove right ... :D

    Nevertheless what you say is all, of course, correct.

    My choice has nothing to do with logic!

    Best of luck...

    I'm really hoping Nina can put on a show with Dabiroun... got it @20's


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,807 chump
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    What happened there!

    Jaysus, no1 saw that coming...


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Well I had a horrible feeling before the race. Cloone River falls and the dream is shattered.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,684 scargill
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    I backed Definite Spectacle. Did you see the three women dolled up being asked before the race what they were backing. More Rainbows. Lovely name.

    My gf told me to put money e/w on More Rainbows for the same reason. I didn't listen.

    An awful lot of people lost an awful lot of money there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 scojones
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    fade2black wrote:
    Well I had a horrible feeling before the race. Cloone River falls and the dream is shattered.

    Don't worry about it man. Cloone River and Definate Spectical both fall. Nobody saw that coming. Just bad luck man.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,300 CiaranC
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    Cloone River was awful.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Explain please.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 scojones
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    I wouldn't mind hearing an explanation either.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,684 scargill
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    Definate Spectacle was awful too.

    Joking aside - I assume both horses are OK ? two bad falls.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,300 CiaranC
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    Er, I was obviously looking at the wrong horse then. Apologies.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Ok we'll get this back up and running againI stopped it cause my luck overall had desserted me and I find it's best to take a break from everything when that happens.

    I've chosen to go for some decent prices as often as possible.

    Today's NAP.

    Tango Step
    Ballinrobe
    5:40

    A horse in super form at the minute, won a race of this nature and at this venue last month only 5lbs higher. Stepped up to 7 furlongs then and was caught out by the extended distance. Has a very capable jockey taking a valuable 7 pounds off his back and I think back over his preferred 6 furlong distance 9/2 is a gift of a price.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 masterK
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    As you might remember Fade I had a tip for Tango Step a while back, I was talking to the guy who gave me the tip earlier, they are expecting a big run from it but are a bit worried about the draw.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,220 20 Times 20 Times
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    FTB

    you beat me too it , only after taking teh SP on it cos wont get near a bookies today so rung paddy power up .. eh big field tho


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    It would appear that a high draw is preferable but ucanstep got to within a length of tango step at this venue from stall 1 last month. With his style of running he will need some luck in running alright.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 849 Cr8or
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    I went for Stefs Girl 5-1 .. didnt like the look of Tango Step.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    ye, course ya did.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 849 Cr8or
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    fair and scruff


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Tell us all what you didn't like about Tango Step then and what you did like about stef's Girl.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 masterK
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    I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but have a look at the winning jockey EM Butterly's record for Mick Halford, 5 wins from 10 rides and a level stakes profit of +28.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    To be honest I noticed that last week...Rory Cleary is doing pretty well with him this year too. Halford is a shrewd trainer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 849 Cr8or
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    Stef's Girl ran really well with Butterly the last two races


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    So that was your thinking before the race last night?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 masterK
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    Are you going fishing there fade?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 849 Cr8or
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    I put a bet on both .. my main bet was on Stef's Girl. End of story!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    masterK wrote:
    Are you going fishing there fade?

    I am Master K. But you know exactly what I'm doing. Cre8or just said he backed Stef's Girl cause the horse had done really well on her 2 previous races under that jockey when of course Butterly was only on her once before last night. It may look like stupid nit-picking on my part but the smell of bullshit was just too over powering for me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 849 Cr8or
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    lol thats cause a looked back at the stats today ... big deal


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Sure don't mind me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,220 20 Times 20 Times
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    whats todays nap ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    To be honest I looked at today's racing and I think i'd be doing nobody any favours by picking a NAP today. I really do think that this will be a profitable thread by the end of the month though, i've been paper trading a so called system (not betting on it) and it's been pretty impressive. I'm not saying it's a system as such...just a way of eliminating certain horses in a field and highlighting others...it's probably very similiar to ones that Master K, Sjones, yourself and others would use but i've been happy with it's success. Unfortunately the three I poste up here didn't win but they all ran creditably so all is not lost. If you email me your credit card number I will subcribe you to the system*









    Just kidding.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 masterK
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    Maybe for a bit of fun we'll start a systems thread for York next week and post our ratings/selections or whatever else may be of interest from our systems. It would be interesting to see what ideas and approches people have come up.

    Personally I have developed a ratings system which uses a variety of factors to come up with a set of ratings for a race, I don't necessarily back the highest rated, I use it as a quick way of filtering a race down to a couple of horses.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 fade2black
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    Ratings are extremely popular and can often pull some big priced winners out of the bag. They can often exploit some falsely priced favourites etc. I'd be very interested in seeing yours MasterK


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 masterK
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    fade2black wrote:
    I'd be very interested in seeing yours MasterK

    I hope you're talking about the ratings!


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