Buy now or will there be a crash?

woods1977

Looking for a gaf (doer upper perfectly fine as max bid is €190,000) and only been looking the past 6 months. Keep getting outbid on those at the €170,000 range (always go up to €190,000) and those at €150,000 keep going to €180,000!...

Is this a current trend that will rise?.. Been told there is a crash along the way and to wait until 2018?......

How soon after sale agree should the actual price go up on the property price register as believe the estate agents are bull-****ting me about the prices offered?

Much appreciated your opinion is....

Michael D Not Higgins

It could be several months between a property going sale agreed and it appearing in the property price register.

As for a crash, the current prices are driven by high demand and lack of supply. That's not ending anytime soon. The increases may settle down when more supply comes through the system but a crash would have to also dry up mortgage lending in the same way that led to the low prices of 2011/12. In that case, if you're also looking for a mortgage, you won't be able to take advantage of a crash.

Pat Mustard

woods1977 wrote: »

How soon after sale agree should the actual price go up on the property price register as believe the estate agents are bull-****ting me about the prices offered?

The information in the Property Price Register is taken from Revenue stamping records, which are only only updated after the completion of the sale and the stamping of the deed.

Of itself, going sale agreed has no direct effect on the Property Price Register records.

The auctioneer's job is to extract as much money as possible from a purchaser. Therefore, a wise purchaser should be skeptical of what he might say regarding price.

Sleeper12

woods1977 wrote:

Is this a current trend that will rise?.. Been told there is a crash along the way and to wait until 2018?......

It's dangerous to listen to people like this. The truth is that no one knows the future. The Trump factor or Brexit could effect things but most likely prices won't drop for the foreseeable future.
Bottom line is that we have a housing shortage & will have for the next few years. This points to higher rather than lower prices

q85dw7osi4lebg

If there is a crash (there won't be) and you wait until 2018, who will finance your house?

cronos

woods1977 wrote: »

Looking for a gaf (doer upper perfectly fine as max bid is €190,000) and only been looking the past 6 months. Keep getting outbid on those at the €170,000 range (always go up to €190,000) and those at €150,000 keep going to €180,000!...

Is this a current trend that will rise?.. Been told there is a crash along the way and to wait until 2018?......

How soon after sale agree should the actual price go up on the property price register as believe the estate agents are bull-****ting me about the prices offered?

Much appreciated your opinion is....

If your renting you have to factor in the cost of that for the years your waiting also.

Nobody can say and nobody knows. On the one hand there is currently a shortage of supply and high demand. With low interest rates houses are quite affordable at present. However, interest rates have been incredibly low for unnaturally long and if they rise (as they will some day), it will have a huge impact on mortgage repayments, possibly crashing prices.

handlemaster

To soon for a crash. In the interm how much will the op send in rent ?

newacc2015

Property is cyclical. But there is no way we will have a crash like 2009-2013 again. The property market pre 2008 was fuelled on easy credit. Now credit is quite restricted. About 40-50% of sales are cash. If people who brought in the last 2/3 years entered in a recession circa 2010, a lot of them would be rosy as their LTV would be a lot lower than 2010 and a lot of them were cash sales. There wont be a ton of subprime borrowers losing their home in the next correction

If anything I can see the market continuing to get stronger. Borrowing is just so cheap. The interest rates declining in Denmark and Sweden have resulted in their property bubble going strong long after it should have been corrected.

newacc2015

newacc2015 wrote: »

Borrowing is just so cheap.

That COULD change in an instant. Not saying it will, but it could,

athtrasna

I was told in 2000 by a very high ranking bank official not to buy until 2004 as there would be a crash in late 2003. How wrong was that.

Buy when you can afford to buy a home.

morrga

Deleted User wrote: »

That COULD change in an instant. Not saying it will, but it could,

Look at Japan, historically flat interest rates as people won't spend and so give can't raise rates, catch 22. Similarly the EU can't afford a generation of savers so spending over saving must continue thus interest rates will be kept below 1% for a long time to come. ROI via property is more realistic than a government backed deposit account.

tomfoolery60

You should buy when it suits your financial circumstances and life needs, not according to how you forecast the housing market.

Idbatterim

Looking for a gaf (doer upper perfectly fine as max bid is €190,000) and only been looking the past 6 months. Keep getting outbid on those at the €170,000 range (always go up to €190,000) and those at €150,000 keep going to €180,000!...

Is this a current trend that will rise?.. Been told there is a crash along the way and to wait until 2018?......

How soon after sale agree should the actual price go up on the property price register as believe the estate agents are bull-****ting me about the prices offered?

Much appreciated your opinion is....

is this a property you are looking to live in yourself and is it a house or apartment you are interested in? as for the crash, as property is cyclical, yeah there could well be one, but when and what will the % fall be. Depends on your current circumstances too, there are a lot of factors. Also claiming it will be 2018 is laughable. "advice" like this can be dangeous, even a broken clock is right once per day.

johnnyskeleton

From what Ive seen of fixer uppers in Dublin anyway, their price is too close to the fully done up price.

So if a house fully done up is worth €300,000, the same house requiring €100,000 will be looking for €220-250k.

Theres probably better value in turnkey condition houses than fixer uppers in Ireland, due to unrealistic ideas about value.

morrga

morrga wrote: »

Look at Japan, historically flat interest rates as people won't spend and so give can't raise rates, catch 22. Similarly the EU can't afford a generation of savers so spending over saving must continue thus interest rates will be kept below 1% for a long time to come. ROI via property is more realistic than a government backed deposit account.

All the central banks know that the current situation is untenable and that it will be painful to get back to normality from the recent period of flooding the world economies with massive amounts of money.

The current macroeconomic situation is dire. Huge amounts of QE and a crash in oil prices and what has it done to the world economy..? effectively nothing, when they should have created unprecedented booms.

They must get back to normality as quickly as practicable and normality means interest rates several times higher than they are today.

Barely Hedged

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That COULD change in an instant. Not saying it will, but it could,

What's the exact definition of an instant?

Bank of England base rate was in the 4% to 5.5% range in the 2000's and you could still get a 3-5yr variable mortgage for 0.5% more than that. 10yr fixed mortgages were offered by a building society based in Manchester for 6% to 6.5% when the rate was 5%.

You also don't think the government wouldn't intervene with mortgage interest rate relief if people started to make noise about the impact of rising rates on them?

Also, capitalisation of a word just reminds me of the Daily Mail style of writing. Hysteria for the sake of hysteria

Barely Hedged

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What's the exact definition of an instant?

In financial terms, days to single digit weeks. When a corrections happen on financial markets, they happen very fast as market players see the way the wind is blowing and pile in.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Bank of England base rate was in the 4% to 5.5% range in the 2000's and you could still get a 3-5yr variable mortgage for 0.5% more than that. 10yr fixed mortgages were offered by a building society based in Manchester for 6% to 6.5% when the rate was 5%.

You also don't think the government wouldn't intervene with mortgage interest rate relief if people started to make noise about the impact of rising rates on them?

My first mortgage was 17%. Think what that would do to peoples repayments on variable interest rates.
Government coffers are bare now and they do not have the resourses to intervene like that. Remember borrowing rates for goverments would be up as well in this scenario. Higher interest rates would also lead to recession, lowering tax take and increasing welfare pay outs, further reducing scope for government action.

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Also, capitalisation of a word just reminds me of the Daily Mail style of writing. Hysteria for the sake of hysteria

Emphasing the 'could' element is the exact opposite of hysteria. Its not WILL.

pwurple

Markets go up and down, if I was predicting anything, i'd look at the last few cycles. Mid 80's was high, mid 90's was low, mid 00's was high, mid 10's low... where do you think this is going? I'd say rising until 2020's, then low again for the 2030's

Parchment

athtrasna wrote: »

I was told in 2000 by a very high ranking bank official not to buy until 2004 as there would be a crash in late 2003. How wrong was that.

Buy when you can afford to buy a home.

This is my view. We bought our home when we could afford to and the time was right for us workwise/life-wise.

Maybe if its an investment property trying to buy at a good time in the "cycle" makes sense. But if its a home you intend to stay in for a long time i dont think games like that are feasible.

Barely Hedged

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In financial terms, days to single digit weeks. When a corrections happen on financial markets, they happen very fast as market players see the way the wind is blowing and pile in.



My first mortgage was 17%. Think what that would do to peoples repayments on variable interest rates.
Government coffers are bare now and they do not have the resourses to intervene like that. Remember borrowing rates for goverments would be up as well in this scenario. Higher interest rates would also lead to recession, lowering tax take and increasing welfare pay outs, further reducing scope for government action.



Emphasing the 'could' element is the exact opposite of hysteria. Its not WILL.

You're confusing the term financial markets (Equity, Credit, FX, Corporates etc) with the interest rate markets. If you think reflationary pressures can force rates away from the "cheap money" era in the Eurozone in a matter of days or less than 10 weeks, I suggest you bow out of offering that opinion.

Think about what you're saying...you say the government will not act to stop mortgage (non)paying people being evicted if rates rose to say the 17% you suggest. Have you not kept abreast of current affairs in Ireland for the past number of years?

Same same.

Sleeper12

pwurple wrote: »

Markets go up and down, if I was predicting anything, i'd look at the last few cycles. Mid 80's was high, mid 90's was low, mid 00's was high, mid 10's low... where do you think this is going? I'd say rising until 2020's, then low again for the 2030's

Prices in Ireland did nothing like the chart. Prices in Ireland had stalled in the Mid 80s. By 1990 stay started to climb & they never stopped till 2007. We didn't have a single price dip in 20 years.
The UK isn't a good barometer. They have never been in the single currency & now they are leaving the EU.

Sleeper12

Parchment wrote: »

This is my view. We bought our home when we could afford to and the time was right for us workwise/life-wise.

Maybe if its an investment property trying to buy at a good time in the "cycle" makes sense. But if its a home you intend to stay in for a long time i dont think games like that are feasible.

Totally agree here. We bought in 1992. We bought a home. To this day we have never called it property or even an investment. Buy when it's right for you in life.
I understand people with several houses seeing them as property but I can't get why the average guy in the street can't get away from the celtic tiger mentality of calling their own home property or an investment. It's a home.

ligerdub

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Prices in Ireland did nothing like the chart. Prices in Ireland had stalled in the Mid 80s. By 1990 stay started to climb & they never stopped till 2007. We didn't have a single price dip in 20 years.
The UK isn't a good barometer. They have never been in the single currency & now they are leaving the EU.

That chart was relative to earnings.

I'd be interested in seeing how the chart looks overlaid with interest rates.

fluxxxxxy

I don't see a crash coming anywhere near that soon, 2018 is only 13 months away...

RandomAccess

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Totally agree here. We bought in 1992. We bought a home. To this day we have never called it property or even an investment. Buy when it's right for you in life.
I understand people with several houses seeing them as property but I can't get why the average guy in the street can't get away from the celtic tiger mentality of calling their own home property or an investment. It's a home.

Actually you gloss over the recent innovation of the starter home, and the property ladder.
It was simpler in the past to buy a house that would do you until retirement. But in the boom that was not what was being peddelled.
Buyers are returning to the old thinking now, but this will leave a lot of people stranded in apartments and starter homes.

The mantra for those homes is, the day you buy you need to consider the day you sell.

Owner occupier in ladder situation is not going to benefit from price changes as they are aiming at a moving target. Also with gov intervention they are competing with FTBs and emigrant families due to tech sector.

Graham

RandomAccess wrote: »

It was simpler in the past to buy a house that would do you until retirement. But in the boom that was not what was being peddelled.

I don't think the buy a house for life is what should be peddled either. It would result in people owning/financing/running a property too large for their needs at both ends of their working life.

jim-mcdee

I remember a wise man said to me, regarding house buying, something like "No point standin on the sidelines, cribbin and moanin. I dunno why these people dont just go away"

ligerdub

Out of interest, does anyone know a good source to get information about the number of new builds over time?

Parchment

RandomAccess wrote: »

Actually you gloss over the recent innovation of the starter home, and the property ladder.
It was simpler in the past to buy a house that would do you until retirement. But in the boom that was not what was being peddelled.
Buyers are returning to the old thinking now, but this will leave a lot of people stranded in apartments and starter homes.

The mantra for those homes is, the day you buy you need to consider the day you sell.

Owner occupier in ladder situation is not going to benefit from price changes as they are aiming at a moving target. Also with gov intervention they are competing with FTBs and emigrant families due to tech sector.

Well you dont have to buy into the starter home mindset if you dont want to. We purchased a house that is large enough for us now, would be large enough if we had kids, it has space for visitors etc. We intend to stay there for the foreseeable future. But we are those people who buy a car, a decent one and keep it until it no longer runs well enough to make sense to keep! We are boring - but we bought this house (not a hugely expensive house) to be our home. Its not just an "asset" to us.

Neighbours on both sides are elderly people - showing that people have stayed in these houses all their lives. Starter Home is a way to throw up cheaply built houses in poorly planned estates and flog them.

Graham

Parchment wrote: »

we bought this house (not a hugely expensive house) to be our home..

You were lucky, plenty of people live/work in areas where the 'not a hugely expensive house' just doesn't exist. Hence the need for smaller homes for those that don't have an immediate need for a family home.

Parchment wrote: »

Starter Home is a way to throw up cheaply built houses in poorly planned estates and flog them.

Bit of a sweeping generalisation there.