Promotion and relegation stats - Leinster leagues

cdeb

I did this up a while back and then forgot about it. But might be interesting to share.

It's a list of every team to have played in the Leinster Leagues from 2003/04 to last season (i.e. all the 12 years on the LeinsterChess.com website). It charts each time a club has won a league, been second or been relegated. I've then added the number of teams each club had in the leagues in that period to get a coefficient - which reflects how often a team from each club changed division over the time. So a coefficient of 1.000 means that the club has had every team either promoted or relegated every year in the time. 0.000 means a club has never had a team promoted or relegated. Worth noting this isn't entirely correct as it discounts teams getting promoted from third place or declining promotion - I wasn't that bothered about accuracy!

[B]Club	        Titles	Second	Releg	Teams	Coefficient[/B]
Round Tower	2	1	0	3	 1.000 
Ayrfield	0	0	1	1	 1.000 
Enniscorthy	2	0	0	3	 0.667 
Cavan	        3	2	1	10	 0.600 
Celbridge	4	2	6	23	 0.522 
Griffith Coll	0	1	0	2	 0.500 
Ballinasloe	4	2	0	12	 0.500 
Wicklow	        0	2	4	13	 0.462 
Phibsboro	9	6	8	51	 0.451 
Dublin Univ	3	3	3	21	 0.429 
Drogheda	1	4	6	26	 0.423 
Balbriggan	0	7	1	19	 0.421 
Straffan	0	1	1	5	 0.400 
Gonzaga	        3	4	1	20	 0.400 
Blanchardstown	2	1	1	10	 0.400 
Rathmines	7	5	16	74	 0.378 
Royal Lopez	3	0	1	11	 0.364 
Jobstown	3	0	1	11	 0.364 
Lucan	        1	1	2	12	 0.333 
Finglas	        1	0	3	12	 0.333 
Classic Kings	0	2	0	6	 0.333 
Naomh Barróg	3	2	4	30	 0.300 
Kilkenny	2	5	2	31	 0.290 
Portmarnock	0	2	4	21	 0.286 
Elm Mount	5	2	11	64	 0.281 
Raheny	        0	0	1	4	 0.250 
Longford	2	1	0	12	 0.250 
Castle	        1	0	0	4	 0.250 
Aer Lingus	1	0	2	12	 0.250 
Malahide	1	3	3	29	 0.241 
Dún Laoghaire	1	1	4	26	 0.231 
Tallaght	0	0	2	9	 0.222 
Curragh	        2	2	2	27	 0.222 
Dublin	        2	2	4	37	 0.216 
Bray/Greystones	1	3	10	69	 0.203 
St Benildus	2	3	4	53	 0.170 
Skerries	0	1	0	6	 0.167 
Inchicore	2	2	1	42	 0.119 
Trinity	        0	0	0	1	 -   
Shankill	0	0	0	1	 -   
Gorey	        0	0	0	4	 -   
Faughs	        0	0	0	5	 -   
Brookfield	0	0	0	1	 -   
Arklow Cortex	0	0	0	1	 -   

A couple of things that stand out -

Inchicore are by a distance the (established) club to move about the least. Before last season, St Benildus were about as bad - but we got two promotions last year, which helped.

Balbriggan have been promoted all the way from the Bodley to the Armstrong without ever winning a league.

Phibsboro and Rathmines are both averaging more than two promotions/relegations per season at the club. Phibsboro have had two seasons where five teams have moved - they had four promotions and a relegation in 2007/08, and five promotions the following year (I think they'd declined promotion a couple of times the previous year)

Rathmines are the only club to have been relegated from the Armstrong twice in one year - and they've done it twice.

Malahide (2007/08 Heidenfeld), Rathmines (2009/10 Heidenfeld) and Naomh Barróg (2010/11 O'Hanlon) were each promoted from and relegated out of the same division. Elm Mount in 2009/10 won and were relegated from the Armstrong.

Aer Lingus, Finglas and Lucan have had only one team each season over the past 12 seasons.

There was a team called Trinity that wasn't Dublin University - I don't know does anyone remember anything about them?

bduffy

Hi K,
Would it be possible to use a negative score for relegation in your calculation?
I can hear the mathematically minded starting to bring eigenvalues into this thread down the line :-) Of course then there's the weighted analysis and the outliers (and we're not talking about anyone outside the M50).....and......loads of other stuff!
Seriously, the Curragh are hoping for big things with all 3 teams promoted last season.

cdeb

Yep, I had a column in for that actually (+1 for each promotion, -1 for each relegation), but decided no-one wanted to see that!

I'll add it later.

Bray the big loser on that basis (-6)

mikhail

Mostly, your data shows that clubs with few teams are more likely to change division.

EDIT: The scatter plot isn't showing up for me. Not sure why. Anyway, it's at http://imgur.com/cuaQyMg