Plan now for a world without oil - probably five years to go before the crunch!

Floater

There was an interesting interview with Michael Meacher on CBNC Europe this afternoon about the global oil supply – (following on from an article in the Financial Times).

The former (since June 2003) English environment minister, discussed the coming shortage of global oil resources. Today, world production stands at 75 million barrels per day (BPD). To meet projected demand for 2015, the world would need to produce an additional 60 million BPD.

"This is frankly impossible," Meacher says. It would "require the equivalent of more than 10 new regions, each the size of the North Sea." Moreover, oil reserves are falling by an average of 4 percent to 6 percent a year.

Thus, an oil crisis can be expected "sometime between 2010 and 2015, perhaps earlier," says Meacher. And the "implications of this are mind-blowing." Transportation, farming industries, and national defence all depend on oil consumption. It is hard to fully grasp the effects "of a radically reduced oil supply on a modern economy or society."

One option in the "stark choice" the world now faces is to "pre-empt available remaining oil supplies, if necessary by military force." Its own rising demand has prompted the United States to pursue just such "an [integrated] oil-military strategy."

But most of the countries identified as new sources of supply "are riven by deep internal conflicts, strong anti-Americanism, or both." Iraq is "the first example of the cost -- both in cash and in soldiers' lives -- [of] resource wars in key oil-producing regions, a cost that even the U.S. may find unsustainable."

Meacher says, "The conclusion is clear: if we do not immediately plan to make the switch to renewable energy, [then] civilization faces the sharpest and perhaps most violent dislocation in recent history."

Ireland is one of the most exposed countries – particularly on the transportation front. The only country in Europe with no electrified mainline rail network. Not to mention only one electrified urban rail line. Add to that the recent capping of wind power generation at 0.7 GW and the absence of urgent research into our other abundant renewable energy source – ocean power. The interview with Meacher will probably be shown again tonight on CNBC Europe – well worth listening to if you get the opportunity.

Floater

an_taoiseach

5 years or 500 oil will run out

In the context of how long it took to get it there 500 years here or there doesnt really matter

What beats me is why as farms are more or less being closed down ( thank you Mr Fischler ) no effort is being made to encourage the production of biodiesel here.

If I were to say it would be a 'good thing' if air fares trebled and all state subsidies ( sp? ) for operating regional flights ceased would I be Called A Troll ?


An T

Victor

Originally posted by an_taoiseach
If I were to say it would be a 'good thing' if air fares trebled and all state subsidies ( sp? ) for operating regional flights ceased would I be Called A Troll ?

Well for a start just impose the same duties on aviation fuel that are imposed on petrol and diesel and watch patterns change (am I right that the only tax on aviation activities is VAT on internal flights?).

an_taoiseach

Victor,

'fraid that wont work as aviation is a global business

( remember how Quantas used to send 747s to Team Aer Lingus for routine FAA checks ? They did that because it was a cheap deal & not because Dublin is just around the corner from Oz )

To reduce consumption significantly ( including get the U.S. to cut back ) it is necessary to get the basic price of oil way way higher than it is now.

An T

Floater

Originally posted by an_taoiseach
5 years or 500 oil will run out

The key issue is not that oil is “running out”. Please read the posting again (or better still get your hands on the article in the FT of 5 Jan).

Meacher estimates that the demand for oil will go from about 70 to 130 million barrels per day over the next decade or so. Current global production is 75 MBPD. The rate of “creation” of new reserves has been tailing off dramatically. As Meacher says, it is “frankly impossible” to double daily oil production over the next five to ten years. Look at the trouble the US has gone to in Iraq trying to get their hands on a hoped for additional 6 MBPD – with no “success” so far.

Britain’s North Sea oil is also tailing off. The country became a net importer four months ago. Britain’s railway system is in a shambles and like the USA, the country is almost totally dependant on road transport.

The gas guzzling US is much further down the line in terms of oil import dependency and the use of oil for transport. While continental Europe is also heavily dependant on imported oil for transportation – it does have a largely electrified public transport system and a developed rail freight system.

Ireland only has DART, and a decimated rail freight infrastructure which runs on oil.

If land has to be “set aside” I agree that it would be far better if it was “re-allocated” to energy from food production - (eg biodiesel and trees) – rather than being wasted on some form of do nothing set-aside. The buses in many continental cities run on biodiesel which is less polluting than its mineral based cousin. Why not in Ireland too?

Oil is a major component in packaging – look at the contents of your wheelie bin. Trees are one of the few alternatives to oil for packaging material. One can even wrap cheese in leaves as one or two brands do in France – recycling an otherwise wasted resource into a naturally biodegradable packaging material.

Ireland has control of two basic productive industries – food and tourism. The rest of the real economy is largely based on payroll earned by employees of foreign owned multi-national companies (MNCs) and their suppliers. Many of these MNCs operations will be hit hard by this oil supply / demand imbalance and the resulting inflation that will ensue.

Increased taxes on air travel would put a big dent in tourism arrivals. For an island nation it would be shooting itself in the foot. That leaves the food industry and we can rely on the relentlessly power grabbing EU bureaucracy to decimate that too, in their not very well thought through quest for globalisation. The same ill-conceived globalisation policy that brought foot and mouth disease to Europe. The same globalisation process that will be largely responsible for the forthcoming oil shortage!

The increase in oil demand from 75 to 130 MBPD will come from (among other factors):

1) China with 1.2bn people rapidly getting as rich and car / packaged goods hungry as the West thanks to globalization
2) Other Asian countries in broadly similar circumstances – another billion people
3) Latin America ditto
4) Global warming (eg greater weather extremes – air conditioning demand is skyrocketing across the world – in cars, in homes, etc)
5) Growth in demand in the rich west – linked to general economic growth. A 3% pa growth in oil consumption would bring global oil demand to 100 MBPD. This only leaves an additional 30 MBPD to meet the additional demands of 1 to 4 above.

European demand for natural gas can be expected to skyrocket as the oil crunch materialises. The same natural gas that Ireland is almost totally dependant on for electricity supply.

There is no alternative to electrification of public transport systems in Ireland and the aggressive pursuit of renewable energy systems to keep the show on the road.

The time horizon is alarmingly small!

Floater

an_taoiseach

or better still get your hands on the article in the FT of 5 Jan

Yea, thats where I read it too

'running out' ( or what ever you want to call reduced availability & increased demand ) must lead to a much increased price

One can even wrap cheese in leaves as one or two brands do in France

This was very common when I a kid ( guess I have a good few more years up than you ? )

AND how about cheese cloth that used to go around cheddar style cheeses ? Dont see much of that these days

BTW So far as tourism is concerned just forget about it - its not going to be like it has been in the recent past ( but maybe more like before the war )

Dontcha just luv how energy consumption will increase because of global warming ?



An T

Victor

Originally posted by an_taoiseach
'fraid that wont work as aviation is a global business

Yes, it is, but the ferry companies now collect duty on booze in international waters. An agreement at EU level would force the airlines to toe the line. That or reimplement departure taxes, difficult to avoid them.

Originally posted by an_taoiseach
remember how Quantas used to send 747s to Team Aer Lingus for routine FAA checks ? They did that because it was a cheap deal & not because Dublin is just around the corner from Oz

Would these be the 747s they normally use to fly from Australia to Europe and then divert to Dublin?

an_taoiseach

Victor,

Problem is that while the EU might make some attempts at this its not going to have much overall impact ( & is just targeted at aviation ) . Strange but the turkeys over in the US probably wont vote for this sort of Christmas ( increase in oil price ). So the EU will be out on its own.

Cant you just see Mick O'Leary ordering his planes to pick up Jet A outside of the EU ? :rolleyes:


A large increase in the basic price is what is needed..........

- Will reduce unnecessary use ( including packaging, running kids to school, unnecessary heating etc. etc ) regardless of tax policies of individual countries

- Will restore producer economies

- Will make some forms of alternative energy easier to justify



IIRC the Quantas contract was for most / all of their 747s ( About one 747 a week went in to Team ? ) - of course they would have tried to arranged that the planes were in service to some European destination ( they are not stupid down in Oz, you know )

Anyway, Quantas was just to illustrate how the aviation world works. You can be sure that the likes of Airmotive ( engine remanufacture ) and Shannon Aerospace ( airframe refurb ) bid for business all over the world.

An T

Floater

Shell announced a reduction in their estimated global oil reserves of 20% today.

It is also widely believed that many OPEC countries have overstated their reserves to jack up their quotas. The quota that each OPEC member is allowed sell each day by the cartel is based on their share of overall OPEC reserves.

Floater

antoinolachtnai

The cost of fuel isn't actually as big a cost driver of air travel as you might expect. According to Michael O'Leary, the average internal cost of a ryanair flight is GBP 28/passenger. Of that about a tenner or a bit more goes on airport/ground handling fees. The HP on the plane has to be paid, and the crew has to get a salary. All the sales admin has to be covered and customer service has to be provided (lot of money spent there). The fuel is a relatively small proportion of the whole thing. By that logic, doubling or trebling the cost of the fuel would put the price up by maybe 10 or 15 quid. This would certainly have an effect, but it wouldn't cripple aviation (and it wouldn't discourage flying too much either).

That's not to say that flying is a brilliant idea and that it should be encouraged. Just to point out the actual economic situation.

Capt'n Midnight

Originally posted by an_taoiseach
A large increase in the basic price is what is needed..........

This will also make unecomonic resources economic
eg: canadian oil sands /shale / coal conversion techniques - no technical problem in exploiting them - just not cost effective. - Bio diesel is also only a year away from mainstream - South Africia were using the oil in orange peal during the embargo - cars have been run on peanut oil. Here during "the emergency" cars were run on producer gas made from turf - was one of the young scientist projects one year. You have a turf burning stove in the boot then every so often you close the inlet vents and spray water on the red hot turf (coal etc) and you get H2 CO (and CO2) - lethal stuff but it burns in petrol engine.

There is also a wet process instead of inceneration. You put the waste into a pressure cooker for serveral hours at 300C or whatever - pyrogens etc get mashed - and many organics break down into oils...

And people with diesel engines can still use chipper fat..

IIRC plastics only account for 0.7% of crude oil so won't get far recycling them.

See also links on Green thread for Hydrogen production. - most petrol cars will use methanol / alcohol / methane / LPG / Hydrogen with minor modifications to the engine. I'd suspect they'd also run on acetone, ethene , esters, isopopanol etc..

Victor

Originally posted by antoinolachtnai
The cost of fuel isn't actually as big a cost driver of air travel as you might expect. According to Michael O'Leary, the average internal cost of a ryanair flight is GBP 28/passenger.

I suspect the economics would be very different for the now defunct Concorde, private jets and helicopters. The tax would be bised towards short haul as this use a lot of fuel in their frequent takeoffs. Will look up some fuel usage rates.

an_taoiseach

The cost of fuel isn't actually as big a cost driver of air travel as you might expect

Anto,

Thats one of the problems & its one of the reasons why the basic price of oil could do with a big increase.

Capt'n Midnight :

Agree with you 100% and the sooner some of these go mainstream the better

I cant understand the attitude of the present Taoiseach & his merry ministers to bioDiesel

There is special provision by the EU to allow reduced ( to as low a o% ) duty on biodiesel to get plants started and make it price attractive. At this stage I believe that Ireland is the only EU country not availing of this. :dunno:

So far as running diesel engines on chip fat is concerned this is a well understood technology I believe that there is at least one plant in the 26 counties that can handle the process but the EPA cant seem to get around to giving it a permit ( There is however a guy up the North with a plant in production )


An T