LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705

Lucreto · 30-11-2012 1:37am

I see the Plosky Tolbachik volcano in Eastern Russia has erupted.

It is 3,085-meter volcano with an ash cloud of 10km. So far it is just ash they can't tell if there is musch Lava due to cloud cover.

The reason I asked was it erupted in 1962-63 and 1947 if my dates are correct they were bad winters. But I expect it is a coincidence.

Sponge Bob · 30-11-2012 2:59am

No co incidence now you mentioned 1963 and 1947 (both) in a snow ramping thread.

Mr Bumble · 30-11-2012 5:33pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1816_summer.png

maquiladora · 30-11-2012 5:47pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I see the Plosky Tolbachik volcano in Eastern Russia has erupted.

It is 3,085-meter volcano with an ash cloud of 10km. So far it is just ash they can't tell if there is musch Lava due to cloud cover.

The reason I asked was it erupted in 1962-63 and 1947 if my dates are correct they were bad winters. But I expect it is a coincidence.

Last eruption was in 1975 . Eruptions in in 62 and 47 were small (VEI 1 & 2). Absolutely no effect on the weather over here. That only happens with much larger eruptions.

Wibbles19 · 01-12-2012 1:59am

maquiladora wrote: »

Last eruption was in 1975 . Eruptions in in 62 and 47 were small (VEI 1 & 2). Absolutely no effect on the weather over here. That only happens with much larger eruptions.

Boo Urns!!, we wants snow and lots of it;);)(and yes I know no sign at the minute, would be lovely though, DREAMING

icesnowfrost · 01-12-2012 4:36pm

Here is another one... I normally shun these news paper story's but sure have a read.....

Planet X · 01-12-2012 5:07pm

Got a Crick in my Neck now! :pac:

jirafa · 01-12-2012 6:40pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Here is another one... I normally shun these news paper story's but sure have a read.....

Duiske · 01-12-2012 7:16pm

jirafa wrote: »

It was just another reporter stating that "hopes of a white xmas dashed", despite the forecaster stating that forecasts change on a daily basis, and that he was basing his opinion on charts as they stand at the moment. Even the darkest depths of today's GFS la-la land only takes us out to 17 Dec, so don't get too depressed, yet.

Conrach · 01-12-2012 11:26pm

I'll stick this here.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/274999107284791296/photo/1

"This could be worse than 2010 next 16 days"

HellFireClub · 01-12-2012 11:31pm

Trotter wrote: »

I find the charts enthralling but I'm working off my own vague stats when I say I've seen maybe 10 periods in the last 3 years where I thought I'd see snow after following FI charts. In reality, I've seen less than 5 heavy snow falls in my lifetime.

Based on pure sequencing of snow events, I'm not expecting anything for another 2 to 3 years minimum.

I'm kind of on the same page as you, I'm just not "feeling" it!

Larbre34 · 02-12-2012 12:02am

Conrach wrote: »

I'll stick this here.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/274999107284791296/photo/1

"This could be worse than 2010 next 16 days"

...in Switzerland

if 5 days before Christmas here is as bad or worse than equivalent period in 2010 ill eat all the charts printed in A3. the ensemble of evidence just aint there

TheMilkyPirate · 02-12-2012 12:12am

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Very interesting things happening on the models yet very quite here. Has anyone thoughts on the hype about FI showing a considerable cold period ahead and also after all the talk of a more milder set up we are looking at another trip into to low digit temps. The fact still stands that with a PV that has been put through the shredder so nothing can be taken for certain especially another mild December.

There's nothing happening on the models.

goosey93 · 02-12-2012 12:28am

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/274999107284791296

Where is Joe B getting these ideas from? The models are showing some signs of a cold spell but nothing severe the reliable timeframe

BLIZZARD7 · 02-12-2012 12:56am

baraca wrote: »

There's nothing happening on the models.

Nothing? There is always something... Explain?

Dan

BLIZZARD7 · 02-12-2012 1:51am

Larbre34 wrote: »

...in Switzerland

if 5 days before Christmas here is as bad or worse than equivalent period in 2010 ill eat all the charts printed in A3. the ensemble of evidence just aint there

You most likely will be correct but the cold spell from the 16th to 25th ish of December 2010 was not picked up this early and there wasnt too much signal for it, if anything the charts look much better now for that timeframe than they did in 2010 so who knows...

Dan

TheMilkyPirate · 02-12-2012 2:00am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Nothing? There is always something... Explain?

Dan

You know what I mean he said interesting, There's nothing interesting happening in the reliable timeframe.

Sponge Bob · 02-12-2012 2:07am

I think Bastardi is gibbering at present and has been for around 2 weeks BUT I forecast an improvement.

Weathering · 02-12-2012 2:23am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I think Bastardi is gibbering at present and has been for around 2 weeks BUT I forecast an improvement.

I unfollowed him on twitter. Tbh he's just an idiot

Harps · 02-12-2012 3:00am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

You most likely will be correct but the cold spell from the 16th to 25th ish of December 2010 was not picked up this early and there wasnt too much signal for it, if anything the charts look much better now for that timeframe than they did in 2010 so who knows...

Dan

Actually, the 18Z GFS on this day two years ago picked it up almost perfectly two weeks away! Timing was a bit off but the signal was definitely there

Forecast on Dec 1st

Actual event

A few recent GFS runs have hinted at high pressure over us or to our north which would lead to easterlies but nothing consistent.

More notably so far this year is the complete lack of any wind or active weather, at this stage last year we were in a far more interesting flow which led to frequent thunder and hail downpours along the W and NW coasts with a few severe storms and snow events. I'd take a repeat over the current projection any day

Weathering · 02-12-2012 3:53am

Harps wrote: »

Actually, the 18Z GFS on this day two years ago picked it up almost perfectly two weeks away! Timing was a bit off but the signal was definitely there

Forecast on Dec 1st

Actual event

A few recent GFS runs have hinted at high pressure over us or to our north which would lead to easterlies but nothing consistent.

More notably so far this year is the complete lack of any wind or active weather, at this stage last year we were in a far more interesting flow which led to frequent thunder and hail downpours along the W and NW coasts with a few severe storms and snow events. I'd take a repeat over the current projection any day

I live near the NW coast and I don't remember much snow/severe wind events bar one bad wind event. Last year was a nothingness event in terms of snowfall

Jaffusmaximus · 02-12-2012 9:02am

baraca wrote: »

You know what I mean he said interesting, There's nothing interesting happening in the reliable timeframe.

I'm not sure what you mean either

The charts continue to show wintry potential and for the last week we have seen constant low digit temps. I know everyone's standard for something being interesting is different but compared to last year what is developing is interesting to me and to plenty of others.

Conrach · 02-12-2012 12:14pm

Weathering wrote: »

I unfollowed him on twitter. Tbh he's just an idiot

I follow lots of idiots infact most of the people I follow are idiots but I refuse to unfollow someone who makes me smile or laugh at least twice a week. Even that is for the wrong reasons.....life is hard, we take our laughs where ever we get them.

Harps · 02-12-2012 1:29pm

Weathering wrote: »

I live near the NW coast and I don't remember much snow/severe wind events bar one bad wind event. Last year was a nothingness event in terms of snowfall

There were a few small snow events, obviously nothing long lasting or widespread but we had a few short lived events. Here's a (terrible) pic of about 10cm of snow on the 5th in Fintown when we also had a few cm in Letterkenny

Frequent thunderstorms, hail and severe wind on the 13th which was repeated throughout the first half on the month

As for wind, Malin Head gusted above 90km/hr on 14 separate days between Nov 25th and Dec 12th last year with several days above 100km/hr. It hasn't even reached 90km/hr once in the past two months

Might not be everyone's idea of interesting but it was definitely better than the cool grey nothingness of the past few weeks

HellFireClub · 02-12-2012 1:52pm

Caff Caff wrote: »

Models this morning are very poor even in FI. GFs, UKMO, ECMWF... The trend is certainly looking to a chilly or nippy December but nothing that will bring the white stuff to lower ground. There needs to be a radical shift in the next few runs but I still think this change will happen, gradually, as we approach Christmas. It is looking more like late December-eary January for snowy potential to hit the east coast of Ireland but we will have to suffer a few more drab model runs. watch that trend!

That's just wishful thinking, I don't think we will see snow this winter, its just not cold enough...

geetar · 02-12-2012 1:58pm

HellFireClub wrote: »

That's just wishful thinking, I don't think we will see snow this winter, its just not cold enough...

so you've decided that the temperature on december 2nd is the temperature that applies to the next three months?

go on, explain that one then...

BLIZZARD7 · 02-12-2012 1:58pm

HellFireClub wrote: »

That's just wishful thinking, I don't think we will see snow this winter, its just not cold enough...

That right there is pure speculation and luckily our weather for the next few months is not based our current temperature.

Dan

Gonzo · 02-12-2012 2:08pm

at least this winter so far is not anywhere nearly as boring as it was last year. Sure we may not see snow anything like 2009/2010 but at least it feels like winter. Temperatures have barely struggled above 5C for the past week or more and more than likely some lower level locations in the north-west may see sleet/snow showers over coming week.

HellFireClub · 02-12-2012 2:09pm

geetar wrote: »

so you've decided that the temperature on december 2nd is the temperature that applies to the next three months?

go on, explain that one then...

Nope, I've decided that the weather so far this winter isn't the kind of weather that I associate with snow!

dexter647 · 02-12-2012 2:11pm

HellFireClub wrote: »

Nope, I've decided that the weather so far this winter isn't the kind of weather that I associate with snow!

Well luckily enough for us winter only started yesterday so a long way to go:)

LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705