Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

Doctor Shivering · 22-02-2017 10:11pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

See my post earlier. I don't see any distribution personally.

Will update at 11pm once the later TAF's come out.

I think he's safe enough at 1130 am but I do think you're brave calling no disruption at all in Dublin Airport due to this at its peak between 5am and 9am

Cards on table, like most here,I am just an amateur Observer/enthusiast, Is that what you are aswell or do you have actual skin in the weather forecasting game?
You could of course be right but if there's an orange warning in east Leinster and a squal between 6 and 8am,I don't see how Dub would escape disruption however brief

JCX BXC · 22-02-2017 10:20pm

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

I think he's safe enough at 1130 am but I do think you're brave calling no disruption at all in Dublin Airport due to this at its peak between 5am and 9am

Cards on table, like most here,I am just an amateur Observer/enthusiast, Is that what you are aswell or do you have actual skin in the weather forecasting game?
You could of course be right but if there's an orange warning in east Leinster and a squal between 6 and 8am,I don't see how Dub would escape disruption however brief

In the weather side of things, I'm nothing but a long-time observer like yourself and many on here.

I appreciate you have a different viewpoint, and don't think we should dwell too much on it here on the weather forum, but I'll say this, the rate of arrivals is very low in the morning, most will avoid peak winds. Departures seem to handle poor weather better than arrivals, as long as the crosswind is acceptable, departures generally take off in most weather, unless of course it's heading towards a major cell or squall.

Also, I would like to say, I wouldn't consider 1 or 2 go-arounds or delays under 30mins disruption, as those things can often happen in fair weather!

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-02-2017 10:22pm

The timing (7am-9am: rush hour) and location (M1 & Airport: peak population/traffic) could signal possible travel delays, as there is a fair few exposed areas along that stretch for the 130kph cross-winds. Would not like to in a high-sided, lightly-loaded vehicle.

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2017 10:32pm

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/834491279908204545

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2017 10:35pm

M6 buoy gone 991.5hPa at 2100hrs. Doris is gearing up and definitely deeper than models have progged. Concerning

discostu1 · 22-02-2017 10:43pm

Many thanks

1

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Sure

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=11&x=2929.43&y=1825.42&ech=4&zoom=1.2

sparrowcar · 22-02-2017 10:50pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

M6 buoy gone 991.5hPa at 2100hrs. Doris is gearing up and definitely deeper than models have progged. Concerning

That last word as both excited me and made me nervous.

JCX BXC · 22-02-2017 10:56pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

That last word as both excited me and made me nervous.

It's been one of the most boring winters yet, I think we're all a little excited

, even if there is some minor disruption!

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2017 11:02pm

Probably wont be until around midnight before we start to see significant winds appear off the SW / W coast

weisses · 22-02-2017 11:03pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

It's been one of the most boring winters yet, I think we're all a little excited , even if there is some minor disruption!

I'm happy I can sit this one out in relative ease here in west Kerry .. Nothing we can't handle ... Bit windier in Clare I would say

JCX BXC · 22-02-2017 11:05pm

weisses wrote: »

I'm happy I can sit this one out in relative ease here in west Kerry .. Nothing we can't handle ... Bit windier in Clare I would say

Doubt it'll be anything we're not used to!

redsteveireland · 22-02-2017 11:09pm

Graces7 really isn't having much luck, the weather is following her.

coillsaille · 22-02-2017 11:12pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Graces7 really isn't having much luck, the weather is following her.

I'm sure she was prepared for it when she moved to the coast at 400ft asl.

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2017 11:17pm

Latest arpege is brutal from Mayo to Dublin.. Possible RED territory

Gaoth Laidir · 22-02-2017 11:19pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

In the weather side of things, I'm nothing but a long-time observer like yourself and many on here.

I appreciate you have a different viewpoint, and don't think we should dwell too much on it here on the weather forum, but I'll say this, the rate of arrivals is very low in the morning, most will avoid peak winds. Departures seem to handle poor weather better than arrivals, as long as the crosswind is acceptable, departures generally take off in most weather, unless of course it's heading towards a major cell or squall.

Also, I would like to say, I wouldn't consider 1 or 2 go-arounds or delays under 30mins disruption, as those things can often happen in fair weather!

You're forgetting about the effect on ground ops. A poster earlier said something like 45 knots affected it, 50 knots stopped things (I think). Stairs, cargo doors, etc. With a wind from that direction virtually all stands are affected

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2017 11:23pm

18z Arpege not for the faint of heart!

arpege-11-12-0.png?22-23

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2017 11:25pm

The 18z HIRLAM 925hPa Winds

squarecircles · 22-02-2017 11:28pm

Wind steadily rising here on the coast,in west Mayo,howling in the chimney now,it was such a notably calm day.

Not sure what to expect here.

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2017 11:30pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Wind steadily rising here on the coast,in west Mayo,howling in the chimney now,it was such a notably calm day.

Not sure what to expect here.

I think you are about to get slammed with 120kph gusts :eek:

Xenji · 22-02-2017 11:33pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Wind steadily rising here on the coast,in west Mayo,howling in the chimney now,it was such a notably calm day.

Not sure what to expect here.

Dead calm in Castlebar, eerily so, but have no work tomorrow so its out with the whiskey and wait to see what unfolds.

JCX BXC · 22-02-2017 11:34pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

You're forgetting about the effect on ground ops. A poster earlier said something like 45 knots affected it, 50 knots stopped things (I think). Stairs, cargo doors, etc. With a wind from that direction virtually all stands are affected

I have heard that before, think it was Billie1b who mentioned it.

Worth mentioning that gusts are generally intermittent.

If higher speeds do come off, then there may be some disruption, either way unless the wind gusts above 60 knots I simply don't see major disruption.

cherryghost · 22-02-2017 11:35pm

Jaysis some upgrade on the storm this evening. West will get a battering from about 2am-6am

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2017 11:38pm

ARPEGE 4am.. Wow

arpegeuk-11-10-0.png?22-23

Oscar Bravo · 22-02-2017 11:38pm

Latest satellite http://en.sat24.com/en

Oscar Bravo · 22-02-2017 11:39pm

wow, looks like Mayo is gonna be hit big time

coillsaille · 22-02-2017 11:39pm

Picking up here now in Connemara. The full length windows are starting to flex in and out, haven't seen that yet this winter.

pad199207 · 22-02-2017 11:40pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

ARPEGE 4am wow :eek::eek:

Possible sting jet associated with that maybe ?

km79 · 22-02-2017 11:42pm

OK that's scary

Four Phucs Ache · 22-02-2017 11:44pm

Dead calm in laois at the moment.Not even a slight breeze.

Gaoth Laidir · 22-02-2017 11:46pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I have heard that before, think it was Billie1b who mentioned it.

Worth mentioning that gusts are generally intermittent.

If higher speeds do come off, then there may be some disruption, either way unless the wind gusts above 60 knots I simply don't see major disruption.

Gusts by definition are intermittent. Everyone knows that.

No one said major disruption, but even so, Aer Lingus have already cancelled flights to the UK (though probably because it will be worse there). So there is already disruption due to this storm. Add to that the effect of the wind on ground ops at DUB (and Belfast, I would say). Then windshear. Crosswind gusts. There is scope for SOME disruption at the busiest time of the day.

Mantis Toboggan · 22-02-2017 11:48pm

Barely a breeze here in central Dublin

mickger844posts · 22-02-2017 11:50pm

I would be confident enough to say this storm will be the biggest in the South East since storm Darwin. We normally just get the tail end of Atlantic storms but it's not the case this time. My station record gust of 104km/h could go. Don't take it lightly as this is the real deal.

Live YouTube stream on my website

www.waterfordcityweather.com

JCX BXC · 22-02-2017 11:52pm

Certainly picking up at the moment here in West Clare.

sparrowcar · 22-02-2017 11:53pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I have heard that before, think it was Billie1b who mentioned it.

Worth mentioning that gusts are generally intermittent.

If higher speeds do come off, then there may be some disruption, either way unless the wind gusts above 60 knots I simply don't see major disruption.

That was me and you are downplaying to lightly.

Ground ops stop at 40-40kts. Pushbacks won't happen at 50kts so aircraft might be able to take off in that wind but not if they can't get off their stands.

I would expect a decent amount of disruption tomorrow at DUB. If early morning departures are delayed and stands are not vacated then there will be a knock on with slots in/out of DUB as the morning goes on.

fepper · 22-02-2017 11:54pm

getting windier here in kerry ,hopefully we wont get the darwin effect this time as it hit us dead on the last time

Doyler99 · 22-02-2017 11:55pm

Nice little visual of the storm developing:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-9.69,50.15,1709/loc=23.880,34.456

JCX BXC · 22-02-2017 11:58pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Gusts by definition are intermittent. Everyone knows that.

No one said major disruption, but even so, Aer Lingus have already cancelled flights to the UK (though probably because it will be worse there). So there is already disruption due to this storm. Add to that the effect of the wind on ground ops at DUB (and Belfast, I would say). Then windshear. Crosswind gusts. There is scope for SOME disruption at the busiest time of the day.

I am talking about disruption at DUB as a result of winds there, not as a result of winds in the UK, which I'm sure will have much more disruption.

Although Windshear would be a problem, and if this storm was occurring 12 hours later I would not be saying the same thing about minimal disruption. Between 5am and 7:30am there is only 7 arrivals into Dublin, with a gap of 1hr 20mins with no arrivals between 5:25 and 6:45.

Anyway, the 11pm TAF is out soon and we can see what the gusts will be like, if they are higher, then I'll admit there may be some disruption, but it will be minimal at current forecasted values.

I'm going to burst if I say the word disruption again!

RobertKK · 22-02-2017 11:59pm

I am exposed from the southwest to north, sticking out on a hill at over 750ft asl, here in Kilkenny, storms from a SW to N direction are usually lively.
Will be happy to avoid a Darwin type storm which was very destructive in Kilkenny, I don't like storms that are passing over Ireland that are still deepening, the potential to be stronger than forecast is very real.

JCX BXC · 22-02-2017 11:59pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

That was me and you are downplaying to lightly.

Ground ops stop at 40-40kts. Pushbacks won't happen at 50kts so aircraft might be able to take off in that wind but not if they can't get off their stands.

I would expect a decent amount of disruption tomorrow at DUB. If early morning departures are delayed and stands are not vacated then there will be a knock on with slots in/out of DUB as the morning goes on.

Ah apologies.

I don't think I can say anything further that I've not already said.

ninebeanrows · 23-02-2017 12:01am

Interesting to see what Mace Head reports at 2am. If Arpege is in the ballpark should be 65/70kt gust

Gaoth Laidir · 23-02-2017 12:03am

JCX BXC wrote: »

I am talking about disruption at DUB as a result of winds there, not as a result of winds in the UK, which I'm sure will have much more disruption.

Although Windshear would be a problem, and if this storm was occurring 12 hours later I would not be saying the same thing about minimal disruption. Between 5am and 7:30am there is only 7 arrivals into Dublin, with a gap of 1hr 20mins with no arrivals between 5:25 and 6:45.

Anyway, the 11pm TAF is out soon and we can see what the gusts will be like, if they are higher, then I'll admit there may be some disruption, but it will be minimal at current forecasted values.

I'm going to burst if I say the word disruption again!

We get it, you don't see any disruption tomorrow morning.

JCX BXC · 23-02-2017 12:04am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

We get it, you don't see any disruption tomorrow morning.

I'll be dreaming the word tonight!

Gaoth Laidir · 23-02-2017 12:05am

Latest aviation warnings:

EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 222100/230300 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 997HPA AND 981HPA IN THE SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF N5425 AND E OF W00930=

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 230230/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2303/2306 W 35-40 MAX 50-55 BECMG 2306/2309 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 230100/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2304 W 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2304/2306 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 230030/230800 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2303 W 30-35 MAX 45-50 BECMG 2303/2305 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 230000/230800 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2303 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2303/2305 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 230000/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2302/2305 W 35-40 MAX 50-55 BECMG 2306/2308 WNW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST

squarecircles · 23-02-2017 12:07am

Looks like I'm going to get a battering here,in louisburgh,west Mayo,1 mile from the sea.

km79 · 23-02-2017 12:09am

squarecircles wrote: »

Looks like I'm going to get a battering here,in louisburgh,west Mayo,1 mile from the sea.

Yikes!
Be safe

Gaoth Laidir · 23-02-2017 12:10am

Dublin's 2300Z TAF still only going for 50-kt gusts from around 3-9 am. I reckon they can add 5-10 knots to that.

JCX BXC · 23-02-2017 12:11am

11pm TAF for Dublin gives the wind as 35kts G 50kts from 3am-5am, after which it drops to 7am-9am 30kts G 45kts.

I don't see any reason to expect disruption, unless the winds are higher than forecast.

Oscar Bravo · 23-02-2017 12:12am

Cold front now gathering just off the west coast and will be very squally.

ninebeanrows · 23-02-2017 12:13am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Dublin's 2300Z TAF still only going for 50-kt gusts from around 3-9 am. I reckon they can add 5-10 knots to that.

Looks too short to me. I'd prob have gone 58 if providing to airport you have a +- 5kt range at EIDW

Gaoth Laidir · 23-02-2017 12:15am

JCX BXC wrote: »

11pm TAF for Dublin gives the wind as 35kts G 50kts from 3am-5am, after which it drops to 7am-9am 30kts G 45kts.

I don't see any reason to expect disruption, unless the winds are higher than forecast.

No, BECMG 50 knots some time between 3 and 5 am, then staying at that until it starts to BECMG 45 knots from 7 to 9 am. So theoretically, we should see the strongest gusts defintely between 5-7 am but also possibly outside of that window too. Scores of flights in that period.

Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

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