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Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

13567…13

Comments

  • #102
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    I often find this to be accurate within a 24hr timeframe:
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=2&map=330

    Compared to last run the storms already looking deeper and more organized hitting the west coast

    7am tomorrow in latest run vs last run:
    Latest:
    410012.png

    This morning:
    410013.png


  • #103
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I found this nice /ultra hi res model on Meteociel.

    The AROME, some nice graphics.

    Picture at 7am IrishTime....Wrap arround occlusion over north Leinster...

    aromehd-54-19-0.png?22-16

    Wind gusts 100-120kph in Greater Dublin area...

    aromehd-11-19-0.png?22-16


  • #104
    kittensmittens
    Registered Users Posts: 2,074 ✭✭✭kittensmittens


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    It will be very windy for a time tomorrow morning in an area (Dublin) where large volumes of people will be on the move going to work. A valid thread on this occasion and well done to OP for starting it in good time

    Every time I hear that there may be a risk of wind during busy times in Dublin, the first thing that always comes to my mind is that poor woman that was killed in the south city a couple of years back by a falling tree limb during high wind.
    You then get on here and the moaners give out about it "being drama over a bit of breeze".

    Well done to all the knowledgeable folks on here who post. NEVER any harm in giving people a bit of a warning to be aware :)


  • #105
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Hi res Arome model gust speeds (based on 6z)

    zy1fle_K2_J4.gif

    New Moon



  • #106
    positron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,407 ✭✭✭positron


    GBX wrote: »
    For the first time since I moved office to Clontarf, I may consider public transport because I reckon it'll be a tad wild for my motorbike

    Also considering my commute options for tomorrow morning, over the years I've come to a conclusion that I can only handle around 35-40 kmph winds on M1 on the motorbike. Some of the charts posted here shows speeds around 80 kmph and above. :(


  • #107
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Dublin airport forecast (TAF) updated at 1700 showing strongest winds now earlier between 4am and 6am gusting to 50knots from the west/north west easing back slightly between 6am and 8am but remaining very blustery all day. (Knock and Shannon going for strongest winds between 1am - 3am)


  • #108
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Hi res Arome model gust speeds (based on 6z)

    zy1fle_K2_J4.gif

    That looks very wild for England and Wales.


  • #109
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I posted an update on the weather tomorrow for Irish airports here:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102706188&postcount=272

    I don't foresee any disruption


  • #110
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Pressure at the M6 buoy has fallen to 998.7 mb (falling rapidly)

    Looking at models, that would be close to or a little lower than forecast.


  • #111
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Very nasty EURO4 12z. Indications are that Doris is deepening more quickly than expected and Ireland now looks like it is in the firing line for some significant wind gusts..

    17022306_2212.gif


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  • #112
    P_1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,681 ✭✭✭✭P_1


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    I found this nice /ultra hi res model on Meteociel.

    The AROME, some nice graphics.

    Picture at 7am IrishTime....Wrap arround occlusion over north Leinster...

    [IMG]http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2017022212/aromehd-54-19-0.png?22-16[/I.MG] Wind gusts 100-120kph in Greater Dublin area...[/img]IM.G]

    So I should probably leave the bike at home in the morning so


  • #113
    Tropheus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭Tropheus


    Just back from a walk here in North County Dublin. Although it's starting to rain, it's eerily calm. The proverbial calm before the storm by the looks of it.


  • #114
    horsefarm
    Registered Users Posts: 222 ✭✭horsefarm


    kittensmittens wrote: »
    Every time I hear that there may be a risk of wind during busy times in Dublin, the first thing that always comes to my mind is that poor woman that was killed in the south city a couple of years back by a falling tree limb during high wind.
    You then get on here and the moaners give out about it "being drama over a bit of breeze".

    Well done to all the knowledgeable folks on here who post. NEVER any harm in giving people a bit of a warning to be aware :)

    A few weeks ago during the last wind event a tree fell right at school collection time. We all parked our cars, walked over to collect the kids, got back to the cars and the tree was down on top of a car. Had it fallen 5 minutes earlier or 5 minutes later there could have been a very serious accident. Wind events should always be taken seriously


  • #115
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Very nasty EURO4 12z. Indications are that Doris is deepening more quickly than expected and Ireland now looks like it is in the firing line for some significant wind gusts..

    17022306_2212.gif

    So in that case it will probably track a bit further north than previously forecast.


  • #116
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    UPDATE from met eireann

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Dublin, Kildare, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow and Meath.
    Update on wind warning:
    Winds may increase higher than the general yellow warning, in eastern areas, for a time, later tonight and early Thursday morning, with northwest winds of mean winds of 70 to 80 km/h giving gusts up to 110 to 120km/h possible.

    Issued:Wednesday 22 February 2017 17:00
    Valid:Thursday 23 February 2017 05:00 to Thursday 23 February 2017 09:00


  • #117
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Interesting, quite rare for a wind event on the East Coast being stronger than the West Coast


  • #118
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Thread level change necessary !


  • #119
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    So do we have an event or just strong winds then....


  • #120
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    jimmynokia wrote: »
    So do we have an event or just strong winds then....

    Depends on where you are, if you're on the East/South East coast it'll be probably more severe than you're used to, anywhere else and it's just a few strong gusts.


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  • #121
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Depends on where you are, if you're on the East/South East coast it'll be probably more severe than you're used to, anywhere else and it's just a few strong gusts.

    Liffey Valley area..Might see my bin blown over then...:D:D


  • #122
    Cloudio9
    Registered Users Posts: 1,351 ✭✭✭Cloudio9


    Aer Lingus have cancelled 12 flights to and from UK tomorrow.


  • #123
    tayto lover
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 52,209 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    This will probably turn out like the "no snow" a few weeks ago.


  • #124
    Doctor Shivering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Doctor Shivering


    Darwin up rooted several trees on my farm and put out the lecky for 4 days and that's on the east coast
    The peak of Darwin here was 2 to 3 hrs but enough to do that damage
    Northwest or west winds at my location are tempered by the Wicklow mtns though


  • #125
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Cloudio9 wrote: »
    Aer Lingus have cancelled 12 flights to and from UK tomorrow.

    Wind more severe over in the UK, Birmingham for example is forecasting gusts of 60knots, and Heathrow up to 50 knots (Heathrow gets delays in a fine mist or a strong breeze!)


  • #126
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Glasgow and Edinburgh airports are forecasting a chance of heavy snow for a time tomorrow morning!


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  • #127
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking very wet and squally also which will make driving conditions pretty tough in those winds

    V7hXoMJ.gif

    4v4RSO2.png


  • #128
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Down to 996.9hPa at Buoy M6 at 1700hrs. A few hPa lower than estimates for this time


  • #129
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Thread level change necessary !

    Great call WC..you were on the ball early with this one.


  • #130
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    ominously calm in west dublin


  • #131
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Regional Forecasts


    Leinster
    22 February 2017- updated at 18:00
    Tonight

    Becoming very windy this evening as southwesterly winds increase moderate to fresh and gusty. The rain will clear eastwards overnight but will be quickly followed by further showers which will be heavy at times. Winds will veer northwesterly in the morning, strengthening further, strong to gale force, with severe gusts in eastern coastal areas. Lowest temperatures of 4 or 5 degrees.

    Tomorrow

    Continuing very windy and blustery for tomorrow morning's commute with strong to gale force northwesterly winds, possibly storm force for a time along the east coast, making driving conditions challenging. Winds will ease slowly through the day, moderate to fresh by evening. It will be a cold day, with bright or sunny spells developing and some scattered showers. Highest temperatures of 5 to 6 degrees.

    sIvbShO.png


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  • #132
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    12Z ECM 925 hPa winds pretty much identical to the 00Z run. 65-70 knots 500-550 metres up so gusts not far off 60 knots at the surface along the east IMO. Also some very strong winds for Waterford and Wexford tonight.

    ecm0125_millikort_gh925_uv925_windshear850-925_2017022212_021.png


  • #133
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    45jJKWo.png

    TLStJif.jpg?1


  • #134
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    What time are peak winds for us in the North West?


  • #135
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Pangea wrote: »
    What time are peak winds for us in the North West?

    04.00 -05.00

    JFKEAuZ.png


  • #136
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I get the feeling this could be a nasty one. Buoy M6 now 995.3hPa at 1900hrs


  • #137
    pedigree 6
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    What's causing this potential storm?

    I know you could say what causes any storm.
    But is it cold air coming into contact with the unseasonal warm conditions we're having at the moment?

    Thanks in advance.:)


  • #138
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    What's causing this potential storm?

    I know you could say what causes any storm.
    But is it cold air coming into contact with the unseasonal warm conditions we're having at the moment?

    Thanks in advance.:)

    In simple terms very tight thermal Gradient in north Atlantic causing high velocity winds aloft (jet stream) /jetstream.

    If a surface wave interacts with the jet at right time and place ( right entrance or left exit)

    It can develop rapidly forming a potent cyclone


  • #139
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Will stick my neck on line! Estimating Dublin Airport max gust of 63kt (117kph).


  • #140
    Deagol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭Deagol


    You guys still estimating no disruption at the airports? Due to land at ~11:30 tomorrow morning, will be sickened if we're diverted to SNN!!


  • #141
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Large number of flights cancelled tomorrow so check with airline but by 11:30 you should be OK


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  • #142
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Starting to look interesting on the RGB composite and Water vapour imagery.

    410049.jpg

    410050.jpg

    Note the area of strong convection near the center. Could be the main cold front taking shape.


  • #143
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Haven't used these detailed predictions before, will be interesting to look back and see how accurate they were.

    Note: Gusts

    fDvvLDL.png

    DrNOg0B.png

    cLsKCnP.png

    B8rMtW1.png


  • #144
    Sammy2012
    Registered Users Posts: 1,255 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    What was the wind direction for storm darwin. We had a lot of structural damage to buildings from that storm and just wondering is tomorows wind direction the same?


  • #145
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Sammy2012 wrote: »
    What was the wind direction for storm darwin. We had a lot of structural damage to buildings from that storm and just wondering is tomorows wind direction the same?

    Southwesterly...

    410054.jpg


  • #146
    discostu1
    Registered Users Posts: 466 ✭✭discostu1


    Wow thats cool would you have a link to that site by any chance if you dont mind sharing
    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Haven't used these detailed predictions before, will be interesting to look back and see how accurate they were.


  • #147
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Deagol wrote: »
    You guys still estimating no disruption at the airports? Due to land at ~11:30 tomorrow morning, will be sickened if we're diverted to SNN!!

    See my post earlier. I don't see any distribution personally.

    Will update at 11pm once the later TAF's come out.


  • #148
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Wow thats cool would you have a link to that site by any chance if you dont mind sharing

    Sure :)

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=11&x=2929.43&y=1825.42&ech=4&zoom=1.2


  • #149
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    M6 at 993.3hPa at 2000.


  • #150
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Strongest winds with Darwin were from about 250 deg (WSW) veering to 290 deg (WNW). Doris will be more like 270 veering to 310. Also the swath of wind damage from Darwin was further south than this event is likely to be. The two areas that should expect possible wind damage, in my opinion, would be coastal and higher exposed parts of Connacht late evening, then coastal east north of Wicklow, if locally well exposed to northwest (some places will be blocked out by hills). Drogheda to Dundalk might be worst affected other than some coastal areas of the northwest that are probably less populated and more used to damaging wind gust speeds. For north Leinster I would say 0400-0800h the critical time tomorrow morning. In the northwest, around midnight to 0300h.

    This will be quite gusty in the southwest too but probably not a level 2 there, possibly not even a level one in some parts of the south but I wouldn't want anyone to think this storm is all that predictable given the spread in model guidance at 12h from event time.


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  • #151
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    One other thing, a recent satellite image suggested centre is developing near 54N 19W which is about 200 miles west of the M6 buoy. The track is just slightly north of due east. Approximate central pressure now 985 mbs. The Arpege model probably shows the worst case scenario in terms of gradient and explosive development which takes place around 00-06z as the centre crosses Ulster. I am about 90% confident that this will verify level 2 wind warnings locally, and it could reach level 3 conditions over in Britain mid-day Thursday. The strongest wind gust potential in Ireland is probably 130 km/hr but plus or minus 15 on that given the uncertainty. Darwin got fairly close to 160 km/hr.


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