Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Forecast Update __ Sunday, 12 November, 2023 __ 7:40 p.m.

Storm Debi appears more certain to develop and will follow a track through central counties late tonight (west) into the morning commute period (Dublin and north).

Guidance is considerably more unified now although still some details remain to be confirmed.

In the official forecast which will guide planning decisions, a red alert is currently in place for counties Clare, Galway, Roscommon, Offaly and Westmeath (later edit, now extended into north Tipps and parts of central to north Leinster including Dublin). Residents of nearby counties should keep in mind that small deviations in actual track of Debi could bring those conditions into play in their counties (for example, inland south Mayo). Further south and east, only a slight decrease in the peak storm winds is expected, so a large number of counties are under an orange alert (edit some later upgraded to red alert status). I would extend that orange alert to the south coast just to be on the safe side, although the guidance generally keeps wind gusts more moderate there. But be aware that any part of Ireland south of the track of Debi will be at risk of seeing brief damaging wind gusts into the range of 110 to 140 km/hr.

The peak westerly winds (possibly 110 to 140 km/hr) will develop quickly, off the Clare coast, around 0300h and will be impacting parts of Clare, Galway and Roscommon between 0400h and 0700h before abating. By about 0600h peak winds will arrive in Offaly and Westmeath, and nearby parts of other counties. Then by around 0700 to 0800h, peak winds, by then around 100-130 km/hr, will be present in Leinster and southeast Ulster. Those peak winds will likely last for several hours before a gradual moderating trend around mid-day.

North of the track, across parts of Connacht and Ulster, 30-50 of rain will fall overnight and during the morning. Further south, a squall line blowing rapidly east to mark the onset of strongest winds, will bring squally showers and thunderstorms with hail. This feature will develop rapidly around 0300h and readers in the southeast should be on alert for its passage during the late overnight as it could produce local tornadic wind streaks.

Damage impacts could include felling of large trees and substantial tree branches, blowing debris from objects such as roof tiles and loosely secured objects, and in the zone of heavier rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides blocking roads. A narrow band near the track could be subjected to overlapping rain and wind hazards. The squall line could produce brief intervals of torrential rainfall also.

It should be stressed that Debi is a rather small and fast-moving weather system that could have sharp gradients in wind speeds, so that conditions could be quite variable from one location to another nearby. Strongest winds will be from a west-south-west direction, veering to west-north-west, so if you are in a gap between hills to your north and south the wind gusts could be more extreme, than if you have hills to your west, as long as the slopes are not gradual, as a gradual downslope could induce lee waves to form; those can often create substantial wind gusts in downslope locations.

I may update this alert around midnight if I see anything to adjust locations and timing in current update, otherwise, will be issuing the usual morning forecast at what is likely to be near-peak wind conditions expected for central counties around 0600 to 0630.

Stay safe and if you have any uncertainty about safety issues, err on the side of caution, this will all "blow up" very quickly out of what is essentially a very moderate wind field at present hour. Unlike a lot of significant windstorm events, we don't have strong wind gusts to track from Atlantic buoys and ship reports, as the circulation of Debi is only just beginning to intensify to the southwest of Kerry.

Tuesday, 14 November, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... mild to about Sunday, rain frequent in west, near average in east, turning colder in stages next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing showers, more frequent by afternoon in north. Breezy, winds westerly 40-70 km/hr, highs near 12 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with rain at times in north, partly cloudy further south. Lows 4 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional rain, highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will bring variable cloud, a brief interval of rain with northeast winds in parts of south Leinster from a passing disturbance, other areas longer dry intervals and just isolated showers in variable wind conditions, becoming generally northwest 30-50 km/hr in most areas by afternoon. Lows 4-7 C and highs about 8-11 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy with some sunny breaks and isolated showers, winds westerly until evening, backing to southerly. Lows about 5 C and highs about 11 C.

SATURDAY windy and mild with outbreaks of rain and some thunderstorms possible, heavier rain likely in western counties. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY breezy to windy, a bit cooler, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Some showers at times, winds 40-70 km/hr southwest veering to northwest late in the day.

Next week looks more settled and rather cool, as high pressure will be close to Ireland most of the time, some frosts are expected but days will be relatively close to normal values around 7 C. This more settled spell is probably going to break down near the end of November with a stormy interval possible but this is more of a theoretical forecast than based on current guidance, which has no signal yet for this breakdown.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a high of about 4 C, just a few snowflakes or raindrops in a cold breeze but no significant amounts.

Thursday, 16 November, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... mild to about Sunday, rain frequent in west, near average in east, turning a bit colder next week with less frequent rain.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring variable cloud, a brief interval of light rain with northeast breezes in parts of south Leinster from a passing disturbance now in the Channel, while other areas will have longer dry intervals and just isolated showers in variable wind conditions, becoming generally west to northwest 30-50 km/hr in most areas by afternoon. A band of light rain will arrive in western counties before noon, and will reach the east coast by evening, rainfalls of 3-5 mm are expected; highs about 8-11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy at first with rain at times in east, clearing by dawn, cold, lows 1 to 4 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy with some sunny breaks and isolated showers, winds westerly until evening, backing to southerly, and highs about 11 C. Rain becoming more persistent by evening across south and spreading to all regions overnight.

SATURDAY windy (southwest 60-80 km/hr) and mild with further outbreaks of rain and some thunderstorms possible, heavier rain likely in western counties. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY breezy to windy (west-southwest 60-90 km/hr, a bit cooler, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Some showers at times.

MONDAY will continue rather windy (northwest 50-70 km/hr), and cool, with passing showers, possibly a touch of snow on higher peaks, but highs near 7 C at lower elevations, so any showers likely to be hail or rain.

TUESDAY will be frosty at dawn, partly cloudy to sunny by afternoon, highs around 9 C.

Somewhat milder on Wednesday, in a westerly flow, and generally dry, highs around 11 C. Variable after that, as cool and mild air masses frequently alternate, windy at times. Tropical season does not look quite done yet, two or three minor systems expected in low latitudes making some progress north before being swept up into the fast westerly flow.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and cold with a brief light snowfall at sunset, and a high of about 2 C. Turning milder for end of week. In general, a rather bland weather pattern across North America at present.

Saturday, 18 November, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... mild over weekend, showers continuing, colder early next week, back to a milder trend mid-week, colder next weekend. Dry after about mid-day Monday. Likely to see more sunshine than usual overall.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy (southwest 60-80 km/hr) and mild with further outbreaks of rain and some thunderstorms possible, heavier rain likely in western counties at times; highs near 14 C, possibly 15 or 16 inland south. Be aware of slight risk of locally severe storms moving rapidly south to north later today with gusty winds and hail, areal coverage if any do form is expected to be rather limited in southern inland counties into central regions.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and windy at times with a few squally showers, lows 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY breezy to windy (west-southwest 60-90 km/hr, a bit cooler, and highs near 11 C. Some showers at times, a band of heavy showers likely by late afternoon (west) to evening (east).

MONDAY will continue rather windy (northwest 50-70 km/hr), and cool, with passing showers, possibly a touch of snow on higher peaks, but highs near 7 C at lower elevations, so any showers likely to be hail or rain.

TUESDAY will be frosty at dawn, partly cloudy to sunny by afternoon, highs around 9 C.

Somewhat milder on Wednesday, in a westerly flow, and generally dry, except for some patchy rain or drizzle in north, highs around 11 C. Thursday will continue rather mild (10-12 C) with northwesterly winds 40-70 km/hr. Strong high pressure just to the west of Ireland will cause winds to become northerly by Friday and Saturday (25th) but there will only be a partial draw on colder air mixing with relatively mild air from Atlantic; temperatures will only drop a few degrees with eastern regions (6-8 C) perhaps dropping a bit lower than the west coast (8-10 C); this blocking high will direct Atlantic storms up towards Iceland until possibly a breakdown occurs around first of December. Staying rather cold well into the last (partial) week of November but milder again around first of December as the blocking high sinks slowly into central Europe and the flow becomes southwest again. It could become windy or even stormy towards that phase.

My local weather on Friday was once again sunny and pleasant by early afternoon, despite a cold start, highs reached 5 or 6 C but it has stayed clear and is back down to -6 C here. A tropical system is producing torrential rainfalls around Jamaica and eastern Cuba, but is not expected to become a named tropical storm en route to merging with a frontal system further north near Bermuda. A very mild start to weekend in eastern regions of U.S., turning colder in stages next week.

Monday, 20 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will be near average, mildest mid-week, and dry after a few more showers today. Sunhine will be at least average and possibly up to 50% above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and cold with passing showers, some with hail and thunder. Snow could fall on summits. Winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will bring clearing skies to some parts of the south, lows -2 to +3 C, staying rather cloudy further north, lows 4 to 7 C; winds subsiding in all regions except coastal north.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast north, sunny intervals south, morning slight frosts inland south, lows -1 to +4 C but milder close to northwestern coasts. Highs 8 to 10 C, winds falling off to light across Munster and moderate westerly further north.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue mild and dry with a bit of coastal drizzle near Donegal Bay. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C with westerly winds 50-80 km/hr in northern counties, with some strong gusts possible in north Ulster. Winds generally light inland south closer to centre of high pressure.

FRIDAY into weekend of 25-26 Nov it appears that the colder air will win out, although further changes are still possible given the lead time. Winds becoming moderate northerly, generally dry with isolated wintry showers over higher terrain in north. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C except 7 to 9 C in southwest and near Atlantic coasts. By about Monday 27 Nov, milder air will arrive with light rain, and this system will move past to allow colder air to rebuild in, but not as cold as earlier so temperatures will stay in a range of about 8 to 10 C daytimes and -1 to +3 C at night. Further battles between Atlantic and arctic air could follow as each air mass appears about equal in strength.

My local weather on Sunday started out with a fall of wet snow leaving 3-5 cm cover, and it stayed around all day accompanied by low cloud, fog, and cold temperatures near +1 C.

Wednesday, 22 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will be near average, mildest today and tomorrow, and dry except for a possible 5-10 mm rainfall on Sunday (see forecast for discussion of uncertainty). Sunshine will be at least average and possibly up to 50% above normal in parts of the south.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, and generally dry except for a few outbreaks of drizzle near coasts in west and north; mild with highs near 12 C. Westerly winds 50-80 km/hr in northern counties, with some strong gusts possible in north Ulster. Winds generally light inland south closer to centre of high pressure.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, coolest inland south, where lows 4 to 7 C but staying rather cloudy further north, lows 6 to 9 C; winds relatively calm inland south and central counties, but westerly 40-70 km/hr in north.

THURSDAY will continue mild and breezy in the north, turning colder late afternoon or evening, but still fairly tranquil further south with any colder air delayed to late overnight; highs around 12 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and cooler, lows 3 to 5 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY increasing cloud, cool. Lows 1 to 4 C, patchy ground frost inland; highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY rather uncertain from a spread in guidance, likely to be overcast with some rain in places; one suggestion is that a fairly moist frontal wave will track across south with 5-10 mm rainfalls or a bit more in places, but other suggestions are for a weaker event more spread out across all regions.

By MONDAY and into the following week, this system (however it plays out) will be out of the way and any further frontal waves from the Atlantic will find themselves confronted with an increasingly robust easterly flow from central Europe. Although it does not look very cold, this is bound to be a chilly scenario with an east wind but temperatures could be only a degree or two below average, for one thing, surrounding water temperatures are quite elevated so colder air masses will be moderated rapidly. So it seems likely to be partly to mostly cloudy and cool but not cold, with some localized shower activity in moderate east winds. There will always be a risk of a passing low to the south veering off the southern jet stream track and bringing changes to the outlook but otherwise wet weather will be heading for southern France and northern Spain.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with glimpses of sunshine, highs around 4 C, but it has just started to snow again.

Friday, 24 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will be near or slightly below average, with colder values in stages through next week. Rather dry except for a possible 5-10 mm rainfall on Sunday. Events around Thursday are quite uncertain and some parts of Britain and possibly Ireland as well could see wintry forms of precipitation but details remain elusive with guidance spread out over a wide range of solutions. Sunshine will be around average and possibly up to 25% above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and turning cooler from north to south, highs 7 to 11 C. Colder air arriving after daybreak in south will result in highs being recorded during the early part of the day with a falling trend around mid-day.

TONIGHT partly cloudy with clear intervals, cold. Lows -2 to +4 C.

SATURDAY increasing cloud, cool. Lows -2 to 4 C, patchy frost inland northeast; highs 7 to 9 C. Rain by evening in Atlantic coastal counties.

SUNDAY cloudy with occasional rain or showers, with 5-10 mm rainfalls expected in west, 2-5 mm east, and lows near 5 C, highs near 10 C.

By MONDAY winds will turn to the north-northeast and colder air will filter in with skies variable and a few showers feeding in from the Irish Sea, lows around 4 C and highs near 8 C. Winds 40-60 km/hr will add a chill.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, cold, isolated showers, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

It will stay quite cold during the rest of the week, but uncertainty is involved in the potential track of what could turn out to be a significant storm moving into France and southern Britain with a potential for sleet or snow to be included. Some guidance takes this system on a longer loop around Britain and northern parts of Ireland by about Friday 1 Dec, while other sources show the storm confined to southern England and northeast France (30 Nov-1 Dec). Either way it is likely to be around 4 to 7 C in Ireland with some potential for mixed wintry showers if not heavier falls of sleet on high ground. Details will likely not come into clear focus for a few days yet.

Further cold weather appears likely for a few days into Dec, then a gradual trend towards milder temperatures in about two weeks' time (back into the 10-12 C range). Something to watch will be how easily this transition occurs with suggestions already of sleet or snow along warm fronts, perhaps not starting over Ireland but later over Britain. Those details are a long way off and subject to considerable adjustments.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and cold with highs barely reaching zero C, and it is now clear and quite cold at -5 C. The moon is almost full now and will reach full phase on onday 27th.

Sunday, 26 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 1 to 2 degrees below average, with colder readings returning today and tomorrow onwards, precipitation will be around 75% of normal and later in the interval could become mixed if not wintry. Sunshine will not be frequent and could be as low as 25 to 50 per cent of average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with occasional rain or showers, with 5-10 mm total rainfalls expected in west, 2-5 mm east, and highs near 10 C. A few brighter intervals by afternoon in parts of south and west.

TONIGHT cool and foggy or drizzly with winds gradually turning to north, lows 4 to 6 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, winds north-northeast 40-60 km/hr and cold, a few showers feeding in from the Irish Sea and Atlantic, and highs about 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, cold, isolated showers, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Sleet possible by evening.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY the latest guidance brings back the southern component, so that the Atlantic disturbance will become a secondary player; expect a cold, raw and misty day or two, with a cold rain turning to sleet or wet snow on higher terrain especially in northern counties, temperatures near 4 C, and winds eventually backing to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr, strongest near southeast coast. This rather unpleasant event may produce some significant snow on hills and also in lower elevations of Wales and central England closer to the primary low tracking up from Biscay and northwest France by Thursday. The secondary low will not merge with the primary but will loop around to south of Ireland's southwest coast and be pulled into France. Overall this will lead to colder air flowing around the system and locking into place for several days after most of the system's energy is dissipated. Temperatures will remain in a narrow range, 2 to 5 C for most, a little higher near some coasts, for the two days.

By FRIDAY, some clearing but variable cloud left over with a few mixed wintry showers mostly confined to north and east, more likely to be wintry over higher terrain, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

The weekend of 2-3 December looks cold and dry with sharp frosts likely, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C. A considerably milder period is likely to follow for a few days with rain, southwest winds strong at times, and highs 8 to 12 C in the week of 4 to 8 Dec.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with sunny intervals and cold, highs about 2 C. The nearly full moon can be seen at times in breaks in the overcast. If you see it over the next few nights, it will appear to be riding very high across the sky around its southerly transit at or after midnight. It will be appear close to (but above) Jupiter in the sky, We recently passed Jupiter so it's quite bright; Venus is lost in the sunrise glow at present and will return to evening skies next spring.

Tuesday, 28 November, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 2 to 3 degrees below average, precipitation will be around 25 to 50% of normal, Any precip that does occur later in the interval could become mixed if not wintry. Sunshine will not be frequent but could be 50 to 75 per cent of average or locally higher.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy, cold, isolated showers, frost and fog patches, and highs 5 to 8 C. Sleet showers possible by evening.

TONIGHT rather cool and misty, patchy ice fog inland valleys, lows -3 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, fog patches, so e persistent ice fog inland, isolated wintry showers, highs 3 to 6 C. Some intervals of moderate east to northeast breezes across eastern and southern counties by afternoon.

THURSDAY variable cloud, ice fog persistent inland, isolated wintry showers, east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr, very cold. Lows -4 to +1 C and highs 2 to 6 C. The storm expected in Brittany, Channel Islands, n France regions has weakened in later guidance and now looks likely to be tracking inland further south, and the asssociated low expected near southwest Ireland has also trended further south and will be hacing little direct influence on weather in Ireland other than to pull in colder air from northeast. Distant storms over Russia and eastern Europe are creating blizzard conditions and it will continue very wintry all week there.

By FRIDAY, some clearing skies, widespread ice fog possible inland, lows -4 to +1 C and highs 2 to 6 C.

The weekend of 2-3 December looks cold and dry with sharp frosts likely, ice fog and isolated wintry showers, lows -5 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C and milder air now expected to take several days to arrive by about Wednesday 6 Dec ... intervals of sleet or wet snow could develop along warm fronts, before rain pushes in later in week around 7th-8th Dec, with highs eventually returning to range of 7 to 11 C.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and cold with light snow and highs around -3 C.

Thursday, 30 November, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will be cold and generally dry to about Sunday and then increasingly moist from south to north as the colder regime slowly gives way to milder air by about a week from now. Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks amounting to 50-75 per cent of normal sunshine. Precip may eventually begin to approach normal values but this will only begin to show up towards end of interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY cold and rather windy at times, east-northeast 40-60 km/hr, with variable cloud and isolated mixed wintry showers in bands feeding inland from Irish Sea into central Leinster, as well as some similar activity in north Connacht and Ulster. Snow on hills from these showers and mixed forms of rain, sleet and hail lower down, slight chance of thunder with them. Some persistent low cloud, mist or fog in some inland areas, but also sunny breaks in other locations. Highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy with clear intervals, very cold, ice fog developing inland. Lows -4 to -1 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, isolated mixed wintry showers, still a cold breeze from east 30-50 km/hr at times. Highs 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY widespread morning frost and ice fog, lows-4 to -1 C. Variable cloud with some sunny intervals developing, cold during the day also, highs 2 to 5 C (5 to 8 C near south and west coasts).

SUNDAY cloudy, southeast winds 40-60 km/hr developing, sleet or a cold rain spreading gradually north into Munster and south Leinster. Lows -4 to +3 C and highs 3 to 6 C for most but 6 to 9 C in parts of Munster.

MONDAY rain, sleet, some wet snow could mix in, lows near 1 C and highs near 5 C (could be considerably milder for part of the day in south as low pressure could move inland before reaching southern parts of Irish Sea).

TUESDAY to about FRIDAY, guidance is rather spread out over a range of outcomes but the general theme is unsettled with the risk of powerful storms developing and spreading heavy rain and strong winds into some parts of the country around mid-week and possibly again by Friday 8th Dec. These details will work themselves out by early next week, but for now, would expect this to be a very unsettled and possibly stormy interval. Lows will be bringing in milder air masses near 10-12 C but questionable at present how much (if any) of Ireland gets into that warmer sector and how much remains in a more transitional 3-5 C air mass where strong winds would be from a northeast direction. Some risk of disruptive snowfalls on higher ground in a colder outcome.

Some indications of any milder spell gradually retreating south again by mid-month as storm track more definitely shown to be near northern or central France after any brief milder incursions.

My local weather on Wednesday returned to the low cloud and bitter cold, dry mode, with highs barely reaching -4 C.

Saturday, 2 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for next few days remain generally cold and relatively dry although some mixed wintry precip will move into southern counties late Sunday. This band is expected to fizzle out and be replaced by a moist but drizzly rather than wet interval, before much milder air moves in around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with heavy rain and potential for strong winds. It will briefly turn very mild, then colder air will seep back in as a following storm is expected to have difficulty gaining latitude as easily, so by about Friday of next week it could be back to current conditions if not a bit milder.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be foggy, misty or dull from a low overcast in some locations, and frost may be slow to clear there; other locations will have a sunny morning and frost will remain more persistent in shaded locations only. Eventually, air will mix better and all regions will have partly cloudy to overcast skies. Highs will slowly edge up towards 2 to 5 C. A few locally heavy mixed wintry showers could be encountered in a few spots, mainly near north and east coasts.

TONIGHT will be foggy or misty with some ice fog as temperatures sink back towards lows of -3 to -5 C inland, -1 to -3 C near larger cities and coasts.

SUNDAY will be foggy or cloudy and drizzly, with temperatures slowly recovering to highs of about 3 to 6 C. Winds will become northeast 40-60 km/hr across all but far northern counties, and some mixed wintry precipitation will develop Sunday evening and overnight. A coating of sleet or snow could greet early risers on Monday but this will begin to melt away.

MONDAY will be cloudy and rather cold with temperatures steady in a narrow range, 1 to 3 C, closer to 5 C in onshore northeast to north winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Some further sleety cold rain or mixed showers could continue in southeast. A snowstorm could develop over parts of Wales and the English west Midlands, affecting regional travel. Also we need to keep an eye on this system in case it decides to hang around the Irish Sea longer than most guidance suggests it will now.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks in the north. A strong Atlantic storm will be approaching by late in the day, at this point, timing of its onset is more suggestive of late overnight or Wednesday morning, but western counties could see its effects sooner. Lows near -2 C and highs near 4 C. Windy with heavy rain by late overnight into Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY could turn quite stormy, a bit too early to speak in definite terms about what this low will do, but some guidance suggests it will be roughly similar to storm Debi in November. Strong winds, heavy rain, and temperatures near 10 or 11 C are likely. We will narrow down the range of potential outcomes closer to the time. There is some chance of this being a more moderate southwesterly mild flow without stormy characteristics too.

By THURSDAY, strong west to northwest winds, turning colder in stages, some further rain mainly in north. Lows near 4 C and highs around 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will become rather cold again, a second storm will be forming over the Biscay region and it could head towards southeastern counties of Ireland, or it could take a track closer to northern France and south central England. Either way, a wintry mix is possible, the balance of rain, sleet and snow would change if the track was further west allowing somewhat milder air to return briefly. The most likely outcome at this time range is for moderate to strong northeast winds, sleet or wet snow mixing with a cold rain and temperatures 2 to 5 C.

From that point on, guidance is more like speculation than helpful indications of a sure trend; what seems most likely is for further battles between cold air masses from north or northeast, and Atlantic storm systems trying to bring back very mild air. A wide range of outcomes are possible. I think it may become quite stormy at some point around midweek of the interval 11-15 Dec.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and cold with light snow, and a few intervals of brighter skies with just a few flurries. It all added up to only 1 or 2 cms of snow, and highs near -2 C. Slowly but surely it is looking more like winter on surrounding hills and ski resorts are trying to get good enough conditions to open for the season.

Monday, 4 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cold at first, turning much milder by Wednesday morning in south, to later Wednesday or early Thursday north, with heavy rain and potential for strong winds. Further heavy rain and strong winds could follow by Friday into early Saturday, then it could begin to turn a bit colder through next weekend. Sunshine could keep pace with the current low daily averages of about 2 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, more frequent further west, and rather cold, with temperatures steady in a narrow range, 1 to 3 C, but closer to 5 C in onshore northeast to north winds of 40 to 60 km/hr on east and north-facing coasts. Parts of inland north could remain under low cloud or fog. Some showers of sleety cold rain or mixed showers could continue in southeast. There could be one or two higher spots in south Leinster (above 350 metres a.s.l.) seeing a 2-5 cm snowfall ending by tonight.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, cold and generally dry with parts of Ulster and east coast seeing a few showers of sleet, or wet snow and cold rain, although this activity may be mostly over water. lows -3 to +2 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks in the north. A strong Atlantic storm will be approaching by late in the day, with rain or sleet starting by late afternoon or evening over western counties, and highs near 4 C except 5-8 C in southwestern counties. Windy with heavy rain by late overnight into Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY could turn quite windy, south to southwest 60-90 km/hr with potential for higher gusts near Atlantic west and south coasts. Strong winds, intervals of rain (10-20 mm), and temperatures near 10 or 11 C are likely in most counties, 7-9 C inland north.

By THURSDAY, strong southwest winds will gradually ease for the mid-day hours, with some further rain or showers, mainly in west and north, and lows near 4 C, highs around 8 to 11 C. A second low appears likely to approach the southwest by evening and could bring an interval of very strong winds and heavy rains by Thursday night. There is potential for winds to gust over 110 km/hr. Temperatures will be steady 5-8 C in most regions, near 10 C south coast, during this event.

FRIDAY will see the strong winds and heavy rainfalls moving gradually northeast across the country; keep in touch with latest forecasts as there is potential for further disruptive wind and rainfall as this event unfolds. Temperatures will be steady 5 to 8 C in most counties, near 10 C in parts of the south and southeast.

From next weekend into week of 11-15 Dec, an unsettled westerly flow not particularly mild but in the near-normal range of 5-8 C will continue with occasional strong winds and heavy rains. Colder air could arrive eventually from a northerly direction.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light snow most of the day, 3-5 cm on top of a similar base. It was around -2 C.

Wednesday, 6 December, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather mild to around Tuesday then colder again, temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal. There will be heavy rain and potential for strong winds at times, rainfalls near normal in east, to twice normal inland west and southwest. Dry for a few days next week. Sunshine could keep pace with the current low daily averages of about 2 hours a day.

FORECAST

TODAY will turn quite windy, south to southwest 60-90 km/hr with potential for higher gusts near Atlantic west and south coasts. Intervals of rain (10-20 mm), and temperatures near 10 or 11 C are likely in most counties, 7-9 C inland north. A few brighter intervals possible in southwest by afternoon.

TONIGHT will be cloudy, windy and mild with occasional rain, lows 6 to 9 C. Winds south to southeast 50-70 km/hr.

By THURSDAY, strong southwest winds will ease for the morning hours, increasing during the afternoon again, peaking late afternoon or evening near south and west coasts, with further rain or showers, becoming heavy in many places by evening. Lows near 6 C, highs around 9 to 11 C. Near south and west coasts, there will be an interval of very strong south to southwest winds 70-110 km/hr by Thursday afternoon, lasting into the night. Winds inland and near east coast will be southeast to south 60-90 km/hr. This wind and rain event will persist all night as the low stalls near Donegal Bay and slowly weakens by Friday. Localized flooding is possible overnight.

FRIDAY will see the strong winds and heavy rainfalls (totals of 20-40 mm possible) moderating gradually to showers as the low weakens steadily while drifting east or southeast across northern counties. Winds will stay westerly across most counties, but eventually at reduced speeds of 40-60 km/hr. Temperatures will be steady 5 to 8 C in most counties, near 10 C in parts of the south and southeast. By late afternoon some clearing may develop across parts of the west and north.

SATURDAY will become windy with showers and intervals of heavy rain with a squally frontal passage likely, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy to windy, with a few passing showers, cooler with lows 3 to 5 C and highs 6 to 8 C. Becoming very windy at times across north, westerly 70-100 km/hr. Intervals of light rain will continue overnight into MONDAY with highs of around 9 C. TUESDAY 12th will bring further showers and winds turning northwest to north, bringing in colder air with temperatures falling from near 10 C to 5 C, frosts will return and the rest of the week will be rather cold but bright and dry for a brief interval. More variable conditions will follow in the run up to Christmas, and it could be rather cold. It's rather early to speculate but I do expect a rather strong Atlantic storm system to arrive around 21st-22nd, followed perhaps by another strong disturbance 25th-26th. One or both of these could dive southeast as it's interesting also that cold high pressure over Russia does not budge while all that is happening and is available to link up with Atlantic high pressure at some point later in the month.

My local weather on Tuesday was foggy and mild with intervals of rain, and highs near 8 C. Snow is gradually turning to slush and a lot of runoff is heading for drains which work crews were clearing all morning. This is a very hilly area and runoff goes into deep ravines eventually so flooding never happens except for very localized culvert blockages as we saw during last spring's snow melt. Creeks running down to join the Columbia River can flood and that could become a problem in nearby city of Trail, BC as all our melted snow runs down a creek to that area.

Friday, 8 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Blustery and frequently showery to about Tuesday, but with a trend towards less windy conditions after Sunday. Dry and a bit colder after that.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery with frequent showers, some with thunder associated, especially in Connacht, Ulster, and north/west Leinster, while somewhat less frequent showers are expected across Munster and south Leinster. Winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts at times in exposed coastal locations. Highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will see a brief dry interval followed by some heavy rain moving rapidly across the country before dawn, followed by strong westerly winds 70-110 km/hr around daybreak. Lows 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will be very blustery with passing showers, westerly winds 70-110 km/hr, and a few sunny breaks in the mix. Some showers could contain hail and thunder. Highs 9-12 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with showers or intervals of rain, winds may ease for part of the morning especially in south and east, but stronger winds will resume as another disturbance arrives and tracks past the coasts of Connacht and Ulster, bringing southwest winds 60-90 km/hr there. It will be more moderate further south (about 40-70 km/hr). Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and mild with a few showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, not as windy, showers or intervals of light rain, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY turning a bit colder in northerly winds 40-70 km/hr, mostly dry but a few isolated showers, lows near 3 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

High pressure will gradually build up to the south and will dominate the weather from late next week to around the start of the Christmas holiday period. This high will tend to drift west once established, and latest guidance suggests it won't be all that cold due to a weak northwest flow of milder Atlantic air but this situation could easily change to a colder scenario if the high were to take up a slightly different position. It certainly looks dry for the interval from 14th to 24th. If current guidance is correct, highs will be around 8 C and there will be enough cloud in an inversion situation to prevent sharp frosts, probably one of those deals where any location clearing out for a few hours drops to about -1 C and most places stay 3-5 C. I think it was Jan 2022 that had almost a month of that sort of "anticyclonic gloom" but with any luck this version will feature a bit more brightness during the day. The spell will likely break down rather quickly around Christmas Day but details on that will be a while entering the reliable time frame.

My local weather turned a bit colder, it was dry to mid-afternoon but cloudy, and then it began to snow but less than 2 cm fell so far, with temperatures drifting down from about +2 C this morning to near -2 C now. Expecting clearing late tonight, sunshine Friday, and increasing cloud leading to snow, sleet and eventually rain on Saturday.

Sunday, 10 December, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Blustery and frequently showery to about Tuesday, but with a trend towards less windy conditions after Sunday. Dry and a bit colder around mid-week, dry and milder later in the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with showers or intervals of rain, winds may ease for part of the morning especially in south and east, but stronger winds associated with "Fergus" will resume as the low tracks into Connacht and Ulster by afternoon and evening, bringing southwest winds 60-90 km/hr and some local gusts to 110 km/hr to the west coast. Waves could over-top seawalls around Galway Bay. Peak storm conditions on west coast are expected around 4 p.m., and in midlands around 6-7 p.m. Conditions will be more moderate further south and east (southwest winds about 40-70 km/hr) and winds will turn easterly for a time in north Ulster as the low tracks inland; highs near 10 C. Some squally showers likely, and intervals of steady rain in north Ulster.

TONIGHT will bring more moderate southerly winds, with some intervals of rain likely, lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and mild with a few showers, lows 4 to 7 C and highs near 11 C. Another low in the daily series will be weaker and its centre will track into the south coastal counties by evening, bringing some steady rain for the overnight hours there. Otherwise, showers, cloudy with a few breaks, some mist and fog. Dense fog is possible overnight as a very slack gradient leads to calm wind conditions.

TUESDAY variable cloud, not as windy, showers or intervals of light rain, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Winds becoming north to northeast by afternoon or evening, at 30-50 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY turning a bit colder in northerly winds 40-70 km/hr, mostly dry but a few isolated showers, lows near 3 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... some sunny breaks, colder, lows 1 to 3 C, highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and turning milder again towards middle of week of 18-22 Dec, becoming rather windy at times near Christmas.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with light snow by afternoon, about 3 cm on ground now, turning sleety at times. Temperatures steady around -4 C all day, quite icy. East coast of U.S. preparing for arrival of rain and wind storm, snow inland.