Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

sryanbruen · 14-05-2018 4:13pm

___Update on the longer range outlook___

It is clear that in the past week the models have struggled in reaching a solution for the second half of May. One night they showed us going into a firmly unsettled pattern with high latitude blocking to occur causing the jet stream to go under it on a southerly track through Ireland bringing with it depressions and low pressures. Another night they showed pretty much the opposite with a more settled outlook. It was kind of confusing where we would go because each had an equal chance.

However, it seems now that we've reached a point where the anticyclonic, settled solution is more likely to happen for the second half of the month and perhaps maybe, just maybe, going into the early days of June or the start of the meteorological Summer.

The way I see it currently is that the Azores High is going to frequently throw up ridges around Ireland (sometimes conjoining with the Scandinavian High) followed by temporary, weak fronts which will give some very light patchy rain or cloud with cooler temperatures following before another push of high pressure arrives. This means that we are likely to see a lot of dry weather with temperatures in the mid to high teens. But once any sun comes out, temperatures reaching the 20c mark or more is certainly possible and very likely. Cloud cover will depend on how quick the waters warm up and not to mention, the positioning of the high.

If we achieve a southeasterly flow as shown on the GFS runs yesterday and the other day, temperatures could get into the mid 20s (23-25c) inland around next week.

In basic summary, expect a lot of dry weather in the next week for the moment at least and maybe continuing afterwards.

M.T. Cranium · 15-05-2018 7:44am

Tuesday, 15 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with light rain developing across Connacht, Ulster and west Munster but this will become showery as it moves further east, amounts will fall off from 3 to 6 mm at first to only 1 to 3 mm for the southeast. There may be a few sunny breaks later in the day with rather cool northwest winds setting in. Highs near 13 C in the north and west, to 16 C in the inland southeast.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, cool with scattered frost inland. Lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly sunny, light to moderate northeast breezes, highs 11 to 14 C near Irish Sea coasts and in east Ulster, but 15 to 17 C in much of central and western Ireland.

THURSDAY ... After another frosty night outside larger towns and cities, the day will remain dry and mostly sunny in some parts of the north and east but cloud will increase elsewhere with a slight risk of showers in west Munster. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs 13 to 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, rather warm, isolated showers. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are still indications of reasonably warm spells and mainly dry weather with a few unsettled days in the mix and when it does rain temperatures will likely be closer to average values. No reliable indications of anything close to record warmth but just a steady one or two degrees above average in the outlook, although with east winds at times, that may apply more to the west than Leinster.

My local weather has been more like mid-summer than mid-May for several days now, on Monday it was sunny and quite warm (28 C). Our trees came into full leaf mode over the weekend and it seems strange to think that six weeks ago we had a foot of snow and sub-freezing temperatures in the daytime hours here.

M.T. Cranium · 16-05-2018 7:17am

Wednesday, 16 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny, rather cool in coastal parts of Leinster with light onshore northeast winds, limiting highs to about 13 C. Further west, highs should reach 15 to 17 C. Patchy mid-level cloud may appear at times in north with longer spells of sunshine in the south.

TONIGHT ... Clear with a slight frost likely inland, lows -2 to +3 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals east, mostly cloudy west with a few outbreaks of light rain, but also some brighter intervals there as well. Highs 15 to 17 C except cooler in onshore breezes near south and east coasts.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud with afternoon sunshine returning, warmer for most, isolated showers in the morning will be quite light and brief in duration. Morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 15 to 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm except near south coast due to onshore breezes as winds increase to southerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C, possibly 20 in some parts of the midlands.

SUNDAY ... Rain from early morning into mid-day hours, heavier in western counties where it could turn thundery at times. Rather warm and humid especially in eastern counties. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 17 to 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Next week looks pleasantly warm most of the time with at least some sunshine each day and limited amounts of rain once the Sunday frontal system weakens on Monday and pushes off to the northeast. Highs will reach the low 20s at times and could even top 24 C by mid-week. This warm spell looks like it might last a week to ten days and end gradually with a turn to more of a northerly flow as the warm high retreats west into the Atlantic after its stay close to Ireland. That ending scenario is a lot less reliable than the warm spell itself, it should be noted.

Summer outlook ... Today I am releasing the hounds of summer and they are friendly I think. Some parts of eastern Ireland are likely to enjoy a warmer than average summer as they join with Britain and other parts of western Europe in a very warm pattern that may dominate most of the season. Temperatures in the east may be as much as 1 to 2 degrees above normal and there will be a few spells of warmth bordering on actual heat (high 20s in other words). Western and northern regions of Ireland are less certain to see this outcome but could have some decent spells of summery weather alternating with periods that are cloudier and wetter. This regional difference would be the result of a persistent southwest flow that brings frontal systems closer to western Ireland but often these will move north more than east, so that rainfall amounts would likely drop off from west to east. The summer season includes June, July and August for climatologists but the general public often think of the season as starting in late June and lasting into September. I think that version of summer might actually fare better since early June is the one time where cooler conditions are more definitely indicated.

So, we'll see how all that works out over the duration of the summer of 2018 ... meanwhile we already have summer here in southern British Columbia where Tuesday was sunny and hot in many places, 31 C for a high, and unbroken sunshine with just a few clouds showing up by sunset. There was a rash of severe thunderstorms near New York City on Tuesday with a rare tornado in the Hudson valley west of Newburgh. This is perhaps a sign of the kind of summer we are expecting in North America, heat waves frequent in the west and south central regions, thunderstorms quite frequent with near normal temperatures in the east.

M.T. Cranium · 17-05-2018 6:58am

Thursday, 17 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals east, mostly cloudy west and central counties, with a few outbreaks of light rain, but also some brighter intervals there as well. Highs 15 to 17 C except cooler in onshore breezes near south and east coasts.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing with just a few patches of low cloud and isolated light showers near west coast, lows about 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud with afternoon sunshine returning, warmer for most, isolated showers in the morning will be quite light and brief in duration. Morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 15 to 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm except near south coast due to onshore breezes as winds increase to southerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C, possibly 20 in some parts of the midlands.

SUNDAY ... Rain from early morning into mid-day hours, heavier in western counties where it could turn thundery at times. Rather warm and humid especially in eastern counties. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 17 to 21 C.

MONDAY ... The front will continue to drop some rain in western counties but the system will weaken and dissipate by afternoon leading to mostly sunny skies and highs near 19 C (somewhat cooler in coastal Leinster).

OUTLOOK ... Warm spells will persist most of the rest of May in a generally east to southeast wind flow, highs could reach 22-24 C in western counties at times, but will be held down somewhat in the east by cold waters of the Irish Sea, even so, should be near or slightly above normal in the Dublin region too with highs 17 to 20 C.

My local weather on Wednesday turned mostly cloudy by afternoon then a few isolated thunderstorms developed over mountain ranges, one or two lightning strikes and just spits of rain in the valley so far. Highs reached about 25 before the cloud set in.

M.T. Cranium · 18-05-2018 6:29am

Friday, 18 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain in parts of the west this morning, some brighter intervals developing, and rather warm except near south-facing coasts, highs generally 16 to 19 C but could be held down to about 12 C by sea fog and low cloud near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Clearing but misty at times, lows 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm with highs 17 to 21 C, except for south coast where onshore flow will hold temperatures down to around 13 C. Moderate southerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times near west coast, mostly cloudy elsewhere although some sunny breaks possible near east coast, continued rather warm, lows 10 to 13 C and highs 17 to 21 C.

MONDAY ... Rain ending for western counties, then variable cloudiness and rather warm for most, cooler in Leinster as winds turn more easterly. Highs will range from 20 C inland southwest to 14 C east coast.

OUTLOOK ... The following week will continue rather warm with isolated showers developing mostly inland south to west, and some limited sunshine, with highs into low 20s at times away from cooler Irish Sea coasts, although 18 C likely to be tops in most of Ulster. Rainfall totals will be low with just isolated measurable amounts from sporadic showers.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with occasional rain that left a total of about 15 mm, which we needed for our gardens. The high was about 19 C. The nearby lake has risen over a metre in the past week from all the meltwater pouring into it, a normal occurrence so no flooding from it, but in the region generally speaking there has been considerable damage from flooding and now the Fraser River is at high levels as it reaches the coast near Vancouver, which has led to some evacuations in a few locations. I mentioned that one of the computer models had been showing an early season hurricane near Florida for around 25-26 May, the latest maps continue to show at least a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm near eastern Florida in the period 26-27 May, so perhaps this is actually going to happen. Landfalling May tropical cyclones are rare, in fact any such storms even in mid-ocean are unusual.

M.T. Cranium · 19-05-2018 7:11am

Saturday, 19 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine will fade as cloud increases in western counties, but should hold on well into the afternoon in the east. Warm for most with highs 17 to 21 C. Cooler near south coast where sea fog may drift some distance inland at times, highs 12 to 15 C there.

TONIGHT ... Occasional light rain or drizzle in west, partly to mostly cloudy and mild in east. Lows 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain could be heavy at times on west coast (in particular around Newport) and lighter rain will extend some distance inland over Connacht and west Munster, Donegal, but it appears likely to remain dry with perhaps the occasional sunny break further east. Highs 14 to 20 C warmest inland parts of Leinster.

MONDAY ... Occasional showers during the morning, could still be heavy at times in the west, but more frequent sunny intervals developing, rather cool near east coast and in most of Ulster, highs 13 to 16 C, somewhat warmer central and western counties, 15 to 19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Generally dry with northeast breezes gradually turning more southeast during the week. Quite warm for western and central counties, cooler with sea breezes in the east, highs will likely climb gradually to reach the low to mid 20s in western counties and from 14 to 18 C in the east. Nights will be generally rather mild as there will be enough cloud around to prevent sharp cooling, lows 8 to 11 C. There will be some risk of isolated showers or even thundershowers at first but a rather prolonged dry spell will develop for many areas. This warm and dry spell may persist to the end of the month when guidance suggests it will turn considerably cooler in north to northwest winds.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with a few spits of rain but generally a dry day and a high near 19 C. We are expecting partly cloudy weather all weekend (this is a holiday weekend here) with isolated showers and highs near 21 C. Severe storms are widespread around eastern Colorado, western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma and this complex of storms will move slowly northeast towards the Midwestern states.

M.T. Cranium · 20-05-2018 7:18am

Sunday, 20 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for possible heavy rainfall in western counties including most of Connacht and west Munster, into Donegal, from mid-day Sunday to late Monday afternoon, potential for 30-40 mm total. Rainfall over the eastern half of the country is expected to be closer to 10-20 mm.

TODAY ... Some showery rain will ease over Leinster this morning but a more vigorous band of rain will then push north into west Munster and later into Connacht, while the east continues mostly cloudy with occasional light rain but some dry intervals and brief sunny breaks. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will become heavier at times in west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster. It may not cover all of central Ireland or much if any of eastern Ireland. Amounts in the west about 15-20 mm by morning. Lows 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY ... Rain continuing heavy at times in western half of the country, a further 20 mm possible. More sporadic and showery rain likely further east, 2 to 5 mm in some places. There will be a fairly rapid drying trend late in the day as the front is expected to fall apart due to higher pressure breaking through it east-west and ending its ability to transport moisture. Highs around 17 C. Foggy at times overnight into early Tuesday

TUESDAY ... Mist or fog gradually clearing to sunny intervals developing, isolated showers mainly inland southwest. Lows 6 to 10 C and highs about 18 C west, to 14 C east, due to east or northeast sea breezes from cold waters of Irish Sea.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring mostly dry and at times sunny weather with the temperatures slowly increasing although continuing the same trend of warmest values western counties, coolest near Irish Sea coasts and in parts of Ulster. By the end of the week, highs may be 22 C inland west, 15 to 18 C east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for little change to this pattern with slight risk of brief showers at times as somewhat more cloud develops, but in general a prolonged dry spell after the expected rainfall in the next two days. The guidance continues to suggest that the eventual breakdown of this spell will come from northerly winds due to the high pressure shifting further west. However, timing is very unreliable in these situations. Also, the spell could just reload with a warming trend after the brief cooler turn.

My local weather on Saturday was partly sunny with extensive cloud by later afternoon and evening, but dry and pleasantly warm at 21 C.

I will continue to update you on the Florida tropical storm potential and the latest guidance has weakened the feature to minimal tropical storm intensity near the east coast of Florida in a week's time, making a landfall near South Carolina. A second tropical disturbance then forms west of Florida and moves inland near Alabama a few days later.

M.T. Cranium · 21-05-2018 7:45am

Monday, 21 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Continued wet and rather cool for most, somewhat milder readings inland southeast. A further 10 to 20 mm of rain is likely but smaller amounts will fall in south Leinster. Highs 12 to 15 C for most and 15 to 18 C for parts of south Leinster. The rain should ease to drizzle by late afternoon and some clearing may begin before sunset.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals developing, but widespread fog and mist especially where heavier rain has fallen. Lows 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer, slight chance of a shower inland southwest. Highs near 19 C inland but held down to 14 C by sea breezes on most coasts where low cloud and fog may drift some distance inland at times.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY will then provide a warmer and mainly dry spell with sunshine each day and highs reaching the low to mid 20s inland and fairly close to Atlantic coasts as winds will be from an easterly direction, veering more southeasterly towards the weekend. This set-up will expose Irish Sea coasts to cooler sea breezes and highs may only reach 14 C right along the shore but the temperature gradient will be fairly sharp so that even a few kilometres inland, 18 to 20 C will be likely.

OUTLOOK ... After this warm and dry spell, a slow increase in cloud and shower potential will begin from weak frontal disturbances pushing north. Timing this will be difficult until later in the week and it may be delayed for several days.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast but reasonably warm at 20 C, and the sun began to break through the clouds by late afternoon; now at almost midnight the skies are clear with a good view of Jupiter and the half moon (about two days away from a close conjunction). No changes on the tropical storm outlook except that the latest guidance has weakened the storm to a very marginal looking depression. The hurricane that we were being shown about a week ago appears to have gone to a better place.

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2018 7:17am

Tuesday, 22 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, although rather cloudy near some south-facing coastlines. Warmer with highs about 18 to 21 C for most, 14 to 17 C east coast and south coast. Slight chance of a very isolated and brief shower or thundershower during the afternoon, most likely in west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mild. Lows 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly sunny, warm in western and central counties, cooler near east and south coasts. Highs about 19 to 22 C for most, and 15 to 18 C in some cooler coastal districts.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, warm, scattered showers developing mostly in midlands, inland south. These will bring 2 to 5 mm rainfalls to some locations but many will remain dry. Lows 6 to 10 C and highs 16 to 21 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine, isolated showers possible. Lows 8 to 12 C and highs 17 to 23 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will see an increase in cloud leading to some passing showers or thunderstorms in light to moderate southeast winds. Except where raining, it should be quite warm although sea breezes may cool a few coastal locations. Highs both days could reach 23 or 24 C (central and western counties in particular).

OUTLOOK ... This warm spell keeps on going about one day longer each new day of guidance, but it will of course eventually break down some time, possibly beyond the first of June though. As the forecast shows, it won't be perfectly dry and sunny all the time, a few minor disturbances will continue as long as the warmth persists, and the eventual breakdown seems likely to be a rather cool northerly spell of unknown duration.

My local weather was just about perfect on Monday with sunshine and a few clouds, highs near 23 C. Went to see a local waterfall in a canyon area, and the temperature near the falls dropped as low as 10 C creating a thermal gradient that you could actually feel as you walked along the trail. Meanwhile, the outlook for the first tropical activity by Sunday-Monday east of Florida remains similar and between that system and a second weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, some heavy rainfalls are likely in parts of the southeast, but winds will peak well below 40 mph according to latest indications (a week ago we were being shown a potential cat-2 hurricane).

M.T. Cranium · 23-05-2018 6:55am

Wednesday, 23 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals, isolated coastal fog or low cloud possible but most places will be quite warm with highs reaching 21 or 22 C, held down to 15 or 16 C perhaps in coastal east and parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches. Lows 7 to 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, outbreaks of showery rain or brief thunderstorms in some parts of the southeast later spreading to midlands and by evening to parts of the west. Despite that, some places will have little or no rain and considerable sunshine. Warm in general, highs 19 to 23 C, but could be closer to 15 C near east coast and in parts of the south coast.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, a few more isolated showers but less active than Thursday, highs 19 to 23 C with cooler readings near east and south coasts.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is some chance of thundery showers both days, otherwise warm and increasingly humid with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, highs 20 to 24 C except 15 to 17 C near east coast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance on how and when this warm spell breaks down continues to be very changeable and therefore unreliable; it would appear likely to come either late next week or into the weekend of 2-3 June.

My local weather continues fabulous with unbroken sunshine and highs near 24 C on Tuesday, clear and cool overnight so more good views of Venus, Jupiter and the half moon. I've mentioned it before, but you can easily find Venus if skies are clear, just look a little north of due west after sunset. And Jupiter is just about as easy to spot, it's a very bright object that looks similar to Venus but not quite as bright, rising in the southeast after sunset, and to the south by about midnight. Later this summer, good views of Saturn and Mars will be available too, you need to stay up past 0100h to see them rising now, but that should advance to 11 p.m. later in June.

M.T. Cranium · 24-05-2018 7:43am

Thursday, 24 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning, increasing cloud with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms developing, most frequent in south central then later inland southwestern counties, but possible anywhere. Rainfalls of 3 to 10 mm are likely. Warm except near east coast with highs 17 to 23 C, closer to 15 C on Irish Sea coasts.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, fog patches and misty, quite warm, lows 10 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, warm, just a few isolated showers redeveloping, not expected to be as widespread as today. Highs 18 to 24 C central and western counties, near 15 C on east coast and parts of south coast.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, warm, isolated showers or thunderstorms by evening in at least the southeast. Lows 12 to 15 C and highs 19 to 24 C, except 15 to 17 C east and south coasts.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional showers, warm. Lows 11 to 15 C, highs 19 to 23 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will continue similar with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, warm temperatures and a risk of showers each day but not a lot of rain overall.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and hot with very weak thunderstorms trying to form by evening, one succeeded in producing a few brief gusts to 50 km/hr and a few raindrops. The high earlier was 31 C. Records were set in some parts of B.C. and Alberta.

The Florida weekend tropical storm risk has now increased again and shifted back to the west coast, with guidance now showing potential for a moderately strong tropical storm with peak winds of 80 km/hr. It makes landfall on the Florida panhandle Monday (which is Memorial Day in the U.S.) and meanders around the region while weakening.

M.T. Cranium · 25-05-2018 7:04am

Friday, 25 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals with cloud over some western counties breaking to partly cloudy skies, warm. A slight risk of a shower or isolated and brief thundershower mainly in the inland south. Highs 18 to 22 C, although closer to 15 C near east and south coasts.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, a few showers in south, warm and humid. Lows 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, some outbreaks of thundery rain possible in the south, generally dry central and northern counties. Warm and humid again, highs 17 to 22 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers or thundershowers, warm. Humid. Lows 12 to 15 C and highs 19 to 24 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm and humid. Lows 12 to 15 C and highs 20 to 25 C. Just a slight risk of showers.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY is currently the expected time for this warm spell to end. Now it appears more likely that the cooler air will work its way around a weak disturbance and push in from the southwest. More frequent rain and a falling temperature trend will bring back more normal temperatures in the high teens.

My local weather continues very warm with isolated showers, the high Thursday was near 28 C. There is not much change in the tropical storm outlook for Florida, and a prolonged period of heavy rainfalls is likely in parts of the southeast U.S.

M.T. Cranium · 26-05-2018 6:40am

Saturday, 26 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some hazy sunshine, more frequent in western counties, then becoming cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms in parts of the southeast, also a risk of isolated showers elsewhere but less widespread, quite warm and muggy with highs 17 to 22 C.

TONIGHT ... Some persistent and heavy showers possible across the south, variable cloud further north with less widespread showers in a few places, quite muggy and warm with lows 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Further heavy showers or thunderstorms in the south, 10 to 30 mm rainfalls possible. Variable cloud, some sunny intervals developing elsewhere, warm and humid. Highs 18 to 23 C.

MONDAY ... More sunshine than on the weekend and fewer if any showers, morning lows 8 to 12 C and highs 17 to 22 C. Less humid and some cool sea breezes likely on most coasts.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm, isolated showers developing again. Lows 8 to 13 C and highs 18 to 23 C.

OUTLOOK ... A greater risk of showers or isolated thunderstorms mid-week, but only a slight cooling trend as any push of cool air will be weak and replaced rather quickly by another influx of warmer air from the east to southeast. This spell does not appear likely to break down entirely for at least another week although the occasional fresher day may qualify as a short break.

My local weather continued very warm and mostly sunny with a high near 29 C, a heavy storm rolled by to our north at sunset but all we got from that was a few rolls of thunder and a small shower of rain. Subtropical storm Alberto has formed west of Cuba and will likely transition to a regular tropical storm (no cool air in the circulation at that point). It is still expected to be a strong tropical storm and possibly a weak cat-1 hurricane at some point late in the long weekend with a landfall near Mobile Bay by Monday night.

M.T. Cranium · 27-05-2018 7:56am

Sunday, 27 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Thundery showers in parts of the southwest this morning and isolated showers elsewhere, some sunny intervals, warm and humid. These showers will tend to break up with perhaps a new round of showers or storms later. Highs 18 to 23 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, warm and humid. Lows 12 to 15 C. Risk of isolated showers or storms.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm. Isolated showers or thunderstorms. Cooler near east coast due to sea breezes. Highs generally about 20 to 24 C (16 to 18 C east coast).

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, very warm, isolated showers. Highs 20 to 25 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Highs 18 to 23 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Little change in the warm and humid, slight unsettled pattern, cooler air not making much of a push until perhaps a week from this Tuesday.

My local weather was mostly sunny with highs near 25 C on Saturday. Tropical storm Alberto is making slow but steady progress towards the Florida-Alabama border region with widespread rain in the southeastern U.S., which may continue for several days even after Alberto makes landfall and weakens.

M.T. Cranium · 28-05-2018 7:11am

Monday, 28 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and very warm, in fact hot might better describe conditions away from the cooler east coast, with highs likely to reach about 24 or 25 C. The east coast will be closer to 18 C thanks to cooling sea breezes, and a temperature gradient from the coast to central Leinster will see highs into the low 20s in places like Kildare and inland Meath. There is a slight chance of a brief shower developing around Carlow or south Kilkenny and drifting west into south Tipperary or north Waterford.

TONIGHT ... Clear and hazy with very muggy and warm conditions, a good view of the full moon. Lows 12 to 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Almost a repeat performance of today, except for a greater risk of showers and thunderstorms developing around Cork and spreading to Limerick, Clare and north Kerry. One of two of those could become locally heavy. Otherwise, all of the same details as Monday with very warm highs of 24 to 26 C away from a somewhat cooler east coast.

WEDNESDAY ... Little change with a mixture of sunshine and cloudy intervals, scattered showers mainly in the south and west, lows of about 15 C and highs 22 to 25 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This warm spell seems to be very entrenched on the guidance I could access (some problems with the latest GFS guidance) and it is difficult to say when the warm spell will actually break down. Perhaps as per the summer forecast, this is just the start of a prolonged warm trend although I would have to imagine it won't just stay like this to September without any breaks.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and the high generally was 28 to 30 C although we were getting slight cooling from our relatively small local lake. We are expecting our warm spell to break down for a few days starting Monday night. Meanwhile, Alberto is approaching the Florida panhandle to make a Monday landfall between Pensacola and Panama City. It is not the most vigorous tropical system but unusual for May. A more impactful weather event occurred with flash flooding near Baltimore, Maryland from a stalled frontal system that brought repeating thunderstorm cells and 200-300 mm of rain in western suburbs around Ellicott City, MD. The main street of the town had two metres of muddy water rushing through it as a result and plenty of chaos ensued.

M.T. Cranium · 29-05-2018 7:34am

Tuesday, 29 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and very warm (hot for some parts of the west and central counties), slight cooling near east coast from sea breezes, but highs for most in the range of 21 to 25 C. Isolated showers and risk of a thunderstorm in west Munster, especially over higher parts of west Cork, north Kerry, border areas of Limerick.

TONIGHT ... Mostly clear and warm with lows only falling to 12 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, a little more high cloud around but otherwise very similar to today, highs 21 to 25 C, with another outbreak of showers or thunderstorms possible in parts of west Munster. Overnight, clear and warm for most, some thunderstorms could arrive in north Leinster from Wales during the early morning hours of Thursday.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy and warm, isolated thunderstorms possible, highs 21 to 25 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very little change from day to day well into next week but a trend towards somewhat more cloud and slightly more widespread shower activity at times, while already rather humid, it may become very humid at times by the weekend and early next week. Highs will generally stay in the low to mid 20s.

My local weather has hit the last day of a prolonged warm spell and dry spell, with a cold front not far away now, but Monday's high was once again close to 30 C. We are expecting heavy showers to develop later today and highs much closer to normal (20 C). Meanwhile, the remnants of Alberto moved into Alabama bringing locally heavy rains and gusty winds. That remnant low will drift north into the lower Great Lakes within the next two or three days bringing drought relief to some places along its path.

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2018 7:21am

Wednesday, 30 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm, isolated thunderstorms may develop later in Munster (locally heavy). Highs 21 to 25 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy and warm, lows 12 to 16 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, humid, scattered showers and thunderstorms more widespread in south and west, highs 21 to 25 C. Overnight lows 13 to 17 C. Friday may have more widespread thunderstorms than the other days in the period.

SUNDAY and NEXT WEEK ... Sunny and warm, at this point it looks as though most of this period will be dry with less widespread afternoon shower or thunderstorm activity but one or two days in the period may bring increased risks when we get closer to the actual time, highs will remain in the low to mid 20s.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually according to current guidance this prolonged warm spell will break down with more frequent showers and heavy rainfalls could develop by the second week of June. Taking a wait and see approach to any breakdown scenario after we've seen two or three come and go already.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with occasional showers, nothing very heavy yet, but temperatures have dropped considerably to about 23 C with a further drop expected today.

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2018 3:54pm

UPDATE _ Wed 30 May 2018 _ 4 p.m.
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There is still a risk of showers or thunderstorms later in parts of Munster but an additional threat now for south Leinster as an area of showers and thunderstorms over north Wales may cross the Irish Sea this evening to arrive in Wicklow and Wexford around 8 p.m. -- will continue to monitor for intensity. That activity could then spread further west and may also extend as far north as Dublin and Kildare although lower confidence in that presently.

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2018 7:42pm

Just a brief second update, the activity in the southeast has not been very heavy and seems largely confined to Wexford. A second pulse that might be more active will move west on a trajectory that appears to be headed for Meath, Louth and south Ulster (later west Ulster and north Connacht) around midnight or so, and this could involve some thunder or briefly heavy downpours. Once again Dublin is on the edge of this second batch and may miss that one, although north Dublin could be grazed by it.

M.T. Cranium · 31-05-2018 8:09am

Thursday, 31 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers with risk of a thunderstorm this morning in some parts of northwest, otherwise hazy sunshine and continued warm and humid, by afternoon scattered outbreaks of thunderstorms in south and east, spreading further west by evening. Highs 21 to 24 C except closer to 18 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out, warm and humid, lows 12 to 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, more widespread showers and thunderstorms developing, some heavy with risk of flooding. Highs 20 to 23 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers and thunderstorms, not as widespread as Friday, lows 12 to 16 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, isolated thunderstorms, highs near 23 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of next week will continue rather warm with some sunshine each day, isolated showers or thunderstorms but many locations will remain dry. Highs in the low to mid 20s. This warm spell seems likely to fade back to more normal temperatures and heavier rainfalls by second week of June.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with morning showers and thunderstorms in the area, dry by afternoon and evening, and cooler with highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2018 7:37am

Friday, 1 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

The warm spell seems likely to persist all through next week with a slow return to more normal conditions around a week from now, and today seems the most likely to produce locally heavy showers or thunderstorms with a less active trend through the weekend and a slight uptick in shower activity around Monday but dry for several days possibly after that.

TODAY ... Warm and humid with increasing cloud and scattered showers, isolated heavy thunderstorms developing by afternoon and evening. The greatest risk of heavy rainfall or intense thunderstorm activity will be in west Munster and Connacht but not entirely limited to those regions. Highs 21 to 25 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, fog or mist becoming widespread, muggy and warm with lows 13 to 17 C.

SATURDAY ... Gradual clearing during the morning, sunny and warm by afternoon, isolated thunderstorms. Highs 21 to 25 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine, warm, isolated thunderstorms possible. Lows 12 to 16 C and highs 20 to 24 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, humid with scattered thunderstorms, lows 13 to 17 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... Sunny with some cloudy intervals and isolated showers possible but generally dry for most, highs will continue to reach the mid 20s in west and central counties, 18 to 23 C east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are signs of a return to a more normal weather pattern by about the 7th or 8th of June with a weak Atlantic influence returning and temperatures falling back closer to average values which would imply highs around 19 or 20 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast, rather cool with highs only about 15 C, and with rain slowly approaching from the southeast, and it began to rain around supper time with about 5-10 mm so far. This is the outer edges of a heavy rainfall (snow at higher elevations) event over the Rockies and most of Alberta, with 40 mm expected in some places. We could use a bit of rain but with snow pack left to melt, a heavy rain would lead to stream flooding problems and likely this will be the case in valleys east of here.

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2018 7:00am

Saturday, 2 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather cloudy at first, some sunny intervals developing, warm except near some coasts due to sea breezes, outbreaks of thundery rain likely by afternoon in Ulster, parts of Connacht and west Munster. Some locally heavy rainfalls possible there. Highs 21 to 24 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out in west and north, becoming foggy or misty, lows 12 to 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine developing, only a few isolated showers or thunderstorms, warm with highs 20 to 23 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms once again rather widespread by afternoon, lows 12 to 16 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly sunny and warm, showers becoming very infrequent and isolated. Highs 21 to 25 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It will gradually become somewhat cooler with a fresher south to southwest wind flow and occasional outbreaks of rain although not a very abrupt change from this week's warm, muggy conditions. And there are signs of a renewed warm spell within a week of this slight breakdown, with another high building up near Ireland.

My local weather on Friday began with light rain then cleared partially to passing showers and sunny spells, with rather gusty winds from the south at times, but rather cool with highs only around 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2018 8:33am

Sunday, 3 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals developing, a few heavy showers or thunderstorms mainly in northern counties, warm. Highs 19 to 23 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, muggy and warm with lows 12 to 16 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms rather widespread in west, isolated east. Highs 19 to 23 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, less frequent showers and most places dry. Warm with highs 20 to 25 C.

OUTLOOK ... Now there is considerable variation in the scenario past Thursday with some guidance breaking down the warm spell to a more normal pattern but other guidance favouring a continuation with possibly even warmer temperatures developing.

My local weather on Saturday started overcast and gradually improved to partly cloudy with clearing skies by sunset, and highs around 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2018 7:43am

Monday, 4 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm in western counties, warm but locally cooler due to sea breezes near east and south coasts, highs 20 to 25 C, showers and thunderstorms developing late in the day inland west and northwest.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, hazy and muggy, lows 12 to 16 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... Little change in the pattern, with similar weather each day, hazy sunshine, very warm especially in western counties, and isolated showers or thunderstorms in west and north but many places generally dry. Highs each day 20 to 26 C and lows 11 to 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slight cooling is likely by next weekend, on the order of 1 to 2 degrees each day, but even so, it will remain rather warm despite a shift in wind directions first to northerly and then to more variable but westerly. This will tend to spread the heat around more into eastern counties than before, but will introduce cooler sea breezes in western counties. Otherwise it will probably not seem like a major change in the weather with highs still into the low 20s.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with some sunny breaks and a few showers by late afternoon, with highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2018 7:13am

Tuesday, 5 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals and warm again today. Some cloud will build up over southeast with a slight risk of showers. A more significant risk will develop for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the inland western counties by late afternoon. Highs 20 to 25 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy and warm with lows 11 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny and warm, some cloudy intervals and isolated thunderstorms by late in the day, highs 21 to 26 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, lows 12 to 16 C and highs 21 to 26 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, lows 12 to 16 C and highs 20 to 25 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms in southeast spreading to south-central and southwest counties by late in the day. Highs 20 to 24 C, warmer inland north.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 19 to 23 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually returning to more normal temperatures during the following week although possibly staying a little warmer than average for time of year, highs 18 to 22 C.

My local weather on Monday was partly to mostly cloudy and cool with brisk westerly winds and passing showers, highs only about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-06-2018 7:32am

Wednesday, 6 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and warm, some cloudy intervals and isolated thunderstorms by late in the day, mostly in inland western counties, highs 21 to 26 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy and warm, some local fog patches, lows 12 to 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, lows 12 to 16 C and highs 21 to 26 C. Isolated showers or thunderstorms in west.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, lows 12 to 16 C and highs 20 to 25 C. Isolated showers or thunderstorms.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms in south spreading to southwest and later to northwest counties. Highs 20 to 24 C, warmest inland north.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 19 to 23 C. The main change will be that cooling sea breezes will be more likely on all coasts by then, and not only near east or south coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually returning to more normal temperatures during the following week although possibly staying a little warmer than average for time of year, highs 18 to 22 C. Rainfall also somewhat closer to normal values throughout rather than isolated showers.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and a little warmer with highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2018 7:32am

Thursday, 7 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather cloudy in south with a few showers in west Munster, trending to mostly sunny further north, then cloudy again closer to north coast with chance of isolated thunderstorms. By afternoon, some isolated storms possible all over inland west but only small coverage likely, so most places remaining dry and quite warm with highs 22 to 25 C west, 16 to 19 C south and east, 18 to 21 C north.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, fog patches, warm, lows 10 to 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in west, some heavy in north Connacht and west Munster. Highs similar to today, near 25 C inland, 18 to 21 C near coasts.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, some outbreaks of thundery showers in south spreading to west by afternoon. Quite humid, lows 11 to 16 C and highs 20 to 24 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, warm. Lows 11 to 16 C and highs 20 to 24 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers, fresher although still rather warm at 18 to 22 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny, highs 18 to 23 C.

OUTLOOK ... A change in the weather pattern is likely to arrive mid-week with westerly winds returning after a long absence, and some frontal bands of rain, with temperatures considerably cooler for a few days, perhaps only 15 to 19 C according to some guidance (although this warm spell is somewhat zombie-like in that it has refused to die on several other occasions). This cooler interval could last almost a week before any slight return to warmer temperatures but the pattern looks like it could go into a late June warm spell or even heat wave rather easily.

My local weather warmed up considerably on Wednesday thanks to sunshine and southerly winds, highs reaching 27 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2018 6:49am

Friday, 8 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and humid, with the risk of widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms in Connacht, Munster and midlands as well as south central Ulster. Highs 20 to 24 C. Somewhat cooler near east coast and outer south coast due to sea breezes, some chance of sea fog on outer headlands. Peak of the heavy shower activity will likely be 3 to 6 p.m. with the risk of localized 20-40 mm downpours and spot flooding.

TONIGHT ... Showers and thunderstorms dying out by midnight, then partly cloudy, close and humid with lows 11 to 16 C.

SATURDAY ... A similar cycle of events to today, although there may be a slight shift to the south and east in terms of where the heavier showers and thunderstorms develop, but still generally in the zone of south/east Ulster through the midlands to central Munster. Highs also similar, about 20 to 24 C, with local sea breezes bringing slightly cooler temperatures in some coastal margins. The outer portions of the west coast could also see some cooling breezes and sea fog.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, showers more isolated but still fairly heavy where they do develop, most likely inland south. Lows 11 to 16 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, not quite as humid, but still rather warm, as breezes turn more northerly. This will redistribute the sea breezes more to the north and west coasts. Highs near 23 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, just the slight risk of isolated showers, highs near 23 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming windy from the southwest (for the first time in many weeks) ahead of a rain-bearing cold front that will arrive by evening or overnight. Highs near 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... There is still likely to be a somewhat cooler and more unsettled theme beyond mid-week, with highs closer to normal, then perhaps a slight recovery to warmer temperatures. Longer term guidance now shows a cool northerly in about two weeks but I would not bet the ranch on that scenario as we saw this appearing for the recent time frame about three weeks ago (and the actual cool northerly was over in Finland and Russia).

My local weather on Thursday was very warm with increasing high cloud, and some showers are lurking with a cold front just a few miles to the west but it has stalled out for the time being. We might also be in line for heavy storms here on Friday and Saturday.

M.T. Cranium · 09-06-2018 6:55am

Saturday, 9 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning, warm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms, similar in coverage to yesterday if perhaps a bit further east and south. One or two of these may become heavy with locally intense thunder and torrential downpours leading to localized flooding. Highs 19 to 24 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, fog or mist, very humid and warm with lows 11 to 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, showers more isolated but still fairly heavy where they do develop, most likely inland south. Lows 11 to 16 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, not quite as humid, but still rather warm, as breezes turn more northerly. This will redistribute the sea breezes more to the north and west coasts. Highs near 23 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, just the slight risk of isolated showers, highs near 23 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming windy from the southwest (for the first time in many weeks) ahead of a rain-bearing cold front that will arrive by evening or overnight. Highs near 20 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY 15th to SUNDAY 17th ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, some rain at times, highs 17 to 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are already some signs of another warmer interval developing in the week of 18th to 22nd, but nothing too conclusive yet. At this point I would estimate highs in the low 20s with slight chance of mid 20s.

My local weather on Friday became quite warm again (27 C) and breezy at times, after some overnight thunderstorms that left behind about 10 mm of rain. We are expecting some heavier showers on Saturday morning and a cooler trend.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2018 7:51am

Sunday, 10 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather cloudy at first but becoming partly sunny, hazy and warm, isolated showers or thunderstorms developing in Munster and south Leinster by afternoon, highs 20 to 24 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, lows 9 to 13 C.

MONDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, moderate northerly winds keeping it rather cool near some coasts but warm again inland with highs 19 to 23 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm. Lows 8 to 12 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, lows 6 to 10 C and highs 17 to 21 C. Rain at times by evening and overnight, 5-15 mm expected.

THURSDAY ... Showers ending, breezy, somewhat cooler with highs 16 to 19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy and unsettled with temperatures closer to mid-June normal values (highs 16 to 20 C).

My local weather on Saturday turned quite wet after some fog and drizzle in the morning, a steady downpour and temperatures no better than 12 or 13 C, so it felt quite cold after weeks of very warm weather here. The cause is a slow-moving low pressure area to our east bringing severe thunderstorms to Alberta and Montana ... it will become cold enough in our region for snow to fall at highway pass elevations around 1200 metres but at my elevation perhaps 8 C with occasional showers and possibly some hail. The next week or two also look quite cool compared to recent warmth, that has moved on into central parts of the continent now. Still, the good side to this will be a reduced fire risk as it had been quite dry until this weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2018 7:27am

Monday, 11 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, with sunny spells most likely near south coast this morning, perhaps more widespread by afternoon, and with moderate northerly winds keeping it rather cool near some coasts but relatively warm again inland with highs 18 to 21 C. Many places dry but isolated showers most likely in Connacht and west Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, lows 8 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy with sunny intervals, highs 18 to 22 C. Some coasts will be a little cooler due to sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, lows 6 to 10 C and highs 17 to 21 C. Rain at times by mid-day west, afternoon or evening and overnight for eastern counties, 5-15 mm expected in most places. Winds gusting to 70 km/hr, the first really windy day in quite some time.

THURSDAY ... Showers ending, breezy with westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr in the morning, easing by afternoon, and somewhat cooler with lows near 9 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled although only normal amounts of rainfall expected, along with near normal temperatures of about 17 to 19 C.

My local weather on Sunday was unseasonably chilly and we could see snow falling on hilltops at 1300 metres above sea level during the afternoon although the rain had ended by then in valleys, but our high for the day was only about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-06-2018 7:09am

Tuesday, 12 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy in many areas this morning but some early sunshine for coastal Leinster and parts of the south and west too. The cloud may be fairly stubborn as winds remain quite light but eventually longer bright spells will become more widespread. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, increasing cloud after midnight in west, lows 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather warm with mostly cloudy skies, winds increasing later in the day to south-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Rain across the north and west from late morning, not reaching other regions until evening. Highs 17 to 22 C.

THURSDAY ... Very windy during the early morning hours and quite gusty until mid-day, then gradually less windy in the afternoon. Rain ending around sunrise after 15-20 mm falls, but skies partly to mostly cloudy, clearing later. Cooler daytime temperatures, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rather cool, showers or intervals of light rain (5-10 mm), lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled with near normal temperatures for a few days, but then turning warmer again by Monday 18th, cooler mid-week followed by a longer warm spell towards the end of the month.

My local weather remained unseasonably cold on Monday, with passing showers that were wintry just a little higher in elevation, fresh falls of snow could be seen on local hills. The high at valley elevations was about 14 C in sunny spells but the temperature fell off several degrees each time a shower passed in gusty westerly winds.

M.T. Cranium · 13-06-2018 7:40am

Wednesday, 13 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, becoming warm and humid in the south and east, occasional rain mostly in west and north, winds slowly increasing to south-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavier rain for a few hours across parts of west and north (5 to 15 mm), just showers at times elsewhere (2 to 5 mm likely), becoming very windy north of Galway Bay after midnight with peak gusts westerly 90 to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal locations around 0400h. Rather windy further south but peak gusts especially inland more moderate (50 to 80 km/hr). Lows 12 to 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Strong winds gradually moderating through the morning with partial clearing, temperatures steady around 16 C. By afternoon, partly sunny and not as windy.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers developing late in the day, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some heavy showers or thunderstorms possible across Munster, lighter showers elsewhere, rather cool compared to past few weeks with highs only 14 to 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs near 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... Warmer again next week, Monday around 23 C, falling back a little for Tuesday and Wednesday then quite warm at the end of the week also. The longer term guidance suggests the warmth may moderate to near normal conditions in the latter stages of June.

My local weather on Tuesday was improved with sunshine fading behind high cloud, and highs near 17 C. We are expecting some showers in the area for several days but amounts could be slight, with continued rather cool temperatures, then warming up next week.

M.T. Cranium · 14-06-2018 7:43am

Thursday, 14 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very strong winds will ease steadily through the morning hours, continuing at 100 km/hr in parts of east Ulster to 0930h but showing first signs of abating in Leinster shortly, already falling in peak gust intensity in western counties. A few brief but squally showers and feeling cold in the winds this morning but by mid-day, improving conditions with partial clearing, temperatures steady around 13 to 16 C. Peak gusts by afternoon 50 to 70 km/hr, then turning partly sunny with isolated showers still possible, but not as windy especially across southern and eastern counties.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, cooler than most recent nights, lows 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers developing late in the day, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some heavy showers or thunderstorms possible across Munster, lighter showers elsewhere, rather cool compared to past few weeks with highs only 14 to 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Rather warm and humid, early rain or drizzle clearing, moderate southwest winds. Low cloud or sea fog likely near west coast but trending to hazy sunshine inland and east. Highs near 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain at times, breezy, highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs near 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... More unsettled weather returning late in the week with temperatures likely to stay close to seasonal normals (17-20 C) and little change in the variable pattern for the following week.

My local weather on Wednesday was tolerable for the first part of the day with some sunny breaks and passing light showers, highs near 16 degrees, but then became quite windy and cold with squally rain showers with falling temperatures.

M.T. Cranium · 15-06-2018 7:30am

Friday, 15 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or intervals of light rain (3 to 5 mm), cool, highs 16 to 18 C. Moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Showers and lows near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Showers, some afternoon sunny intervals, highs 16 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain or drizzle during the morning, some sunny breaks by afternoon, highs 18 to 20 C.

MONDAY ... Showers, breezy or windy at times, rather warm with lows 10 to 13 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Some rain mostly in northern counties, continued rather warm, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, rather warm, highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures or slightly warmer than normal at times, highs 19 to 22 C.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with occasional light showers, highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-06-2018 8:21am

Saturday, 16 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few passing showers, but also a few sunny intervals, rather breezy (westerly 40 to 60 km/hr) and humid this morning turning fresher this afternoon, highs about 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Patchy light rain, mist, drizzle with a slow-moving warm front, lows about 11 C.

SUNDAY ... The patchy drizzle will continue in the morning, slowly improving to partly cloudy, warm and humid by afternoon, particularly in Munster and south Leinster, where highs may reach 21 C, while closer to 17 or 18 C further north.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, best chance of sunny intervals in the inland south, some patchy light rain at times in the north, lows about 12 C and highs 17 C to 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and humid with outbreaks of rain later in the day heaviest in north and northwest, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C south, 18 C north.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers or drizzle, clearing by mid-day and turning less humid, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Mostly sunny, pleasant temperatures, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning rather warm again next weekend and into the following week, highs 21 to 24 C by Monday 25th.

My local weather on Friday featured sunny intervals to mid-afternoon, then passing showers with a rumble of thunder, and clearing skies in the evening as a warm spell begins to develop. The high was about 20 C but temperatures here are predicted to climb into the low 30s for most of next week.

M.T. Cranium · 17-06-2018 6:37am

Sunday, 17 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The occasional drizzle will continue this morning, slowly improving to partly cloudy, warm and humid by afternoon, particularly in Munster and south Leinster, where highs may reach 21 C, while closer to 17 or 18 C further north.

TONIGHT ... Light rain may return to parts of the north, mostly cloudy but dry intervals further south, quite mild with lows 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, best chance of sunny intervals in the inland south, some patchy light rain at times in the north, with lows about 12 C and highs 17 C to 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and humid with outbreaks of rain later in the day heaviest in north and northwest, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C south, 18 C north.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers or drizzle, clearing by mid-day and turning less humid, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C. Fresh northwest breezes with the clearing trend.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Mostly sunny, pleasant temperatures, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning rather warm again next weekend and into the first part of the following week, highs 21 to 24 C through the weekend and 22 to 26 C by Monday 25th. Staying quite warm on Tuesday 26th but after that, current guidance suggests a gradual cooling trend back to the 17 to 20 C range by end of June.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and pleasant with highs about 23 C. A few showers developed but they were mostly virga with a few raindrops reaching the ground. More extensive sunshine is now expected with hot temperatures developing. Lovely views of the new moon near Venus this past evening.

M.T. Cranium · 18-06-2018 7:37am

Monday, 18 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, best chance of sunny intervals in the inland south, some patchy light rain at times, although generally dry with highs 17 C to 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy and mild, mist or fog patches, lows 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and humid with outbreaks of rain later in the day, heaviest in north and northwest, and highs near 22 C south, 18 C north.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers or drizzle, partially clearing west to east by mid-day and turning less humid, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C. Fresh northwest breezes 40 to 60 km/hr with the clearing trend.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, lows 9 to 12 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly sunny, pleasant temperatures, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Warm with sunny intervals, some cooling sea breezes but highs 21 to 26 C inland this coming weekend and into the first half of the following week, with a gradual increase in cloud later in the week leading to some intervals of possibly thundery rain and eventually cooler temperatures around the end of June.

My local weather has entered heat wave mode with sunshine and 28 C on Sunday, and even hotter temperatures predicted for much of this coming week here.

M.T. Cranium · 19-06-2018 7:54am

Tuesday, 19 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming warm and humid in the south and parts of the east with outbreaks of rain later in the day, while remaining rather cool with frequent rain in north (15-25 mm likely), highs 19 to 22 C south, 15 to 17 C north.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing across parts of the north, gradually clearing from west, intermittent showers south and east. Lows 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers or drizzle, partially clearing west to east by mid-day and turning less humid, with highs 16 to 19 C. Fresh northwest breezes 40 to 60 km/hr with the clearing trend.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, lows 9 to 12 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly sunny, pleasant temperatures, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

WEEKEND ... Sunny intervals, very warm especially inland as cooling sea breezes will develop on most coasts, highs each day 22 to 26 C.

OUTLOOK ... The very warm spell will continue for several days then a slow and gradual return to more normal temperatures is likely but not before several days in the mid to possibly high 20s in some parts.

My local weather was sunny with a few afternoon cloudy intervals and hot with highs near 30 C. This heat will persist most of the week in all parts of western Canada and the northwest U.S., but recently it has been unusually cool in the desert regions to our south as a "cut off low" trapped some cooler air down there, highs only 15 to 20 C in parts of Nevada and even in the low desert regions of Arizona a few degrees below normal (30-35 C instead of low 40s). Hot weather has also spread into parts of the eastern U.S.

M.T. Cranium · 20-06-2018 8:06am

Wednesday, 20 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few more showers this morning mostly in Leinster, partially clearing west to east by mid-day and turning less humid, with highs 16 to 19 C. Fresh northwest breezes 40 to 60 km/hr with the clearing trend.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool, lows 6 to 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals developing, and highs 17 to 20 C. (Summer solstice 1109h IST).

FRIDAY ... Mostly sunny, pleasant temperatures, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

WEEKEND ... Sunny intervals, very warm especially inland as cooling sea breezes will develop on most coasts, highs each day 22 to 26 C.

OUTLOOK ... The sunny and very warm, dry spell will continue for several days and it may reach "heat wave" status with highs 27 to 30 C possible during most of next week, followed by a slow and gradual return to more normal temperatures by early July.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and hot with a high near 32 C, quite low humidity levels so cooling off reasonably quickly overnight, then back to heat and sunshine today and Thursday.

M.T. Cranium · 21-06-2018 7:48am

Thursday, 21 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, a few brief showers this morning in some western counties but not much accumulation, highs rather cool around 17 to 19 C in moderate northwest winds 30 to 50 km/hr. The summer solstice occurs at 1109h.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool. Lows 4 to 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny, warmer except in some coastal regions, lows 7 to 10 C, highs 21 to 24 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny and very warm away from sea breeze cooled coastal areas, lows 8 to 11 C, highs inland 24 to 27 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY ... Sunny and very warm or hot inland, highs 26 to 29 C. Some coastal sea breezes will keep readings down into the low 20s or even high teens in a few places. Nights will also be quite warm, 14 to 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... This heat wave will break down rather gradually from Friday 29th onward with increasing risk of thundery showers and slight cooling trend to mid 20s, but the first week of July currently looks almost as warm with highs still reaching mid 20s inland.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and hot with evening thunderstorms in the area, not much rain from them however, and the daytime high reached 33 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-06-2018 7:42am

Friday, 22 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny, highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear, cool, lows 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny, warm, highs 21 to 24 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny, very warm inland, some cooling sea breezes near coastlines, lows 7 to 11 C and highs 22 to 26 C.

MONDAY to FRIDAY will bring very warm or even hot weather to most of the country, with sunshine and just a few cloudy intervals each day with lows 14 to 17 C and highs 26 to 29 C, possibly as high as 30 degrees in a few parts of the inland south and midlands. Slight cooling from sea breezes but any significant reduction in temperature confined to outer headlands. Only a slight risk of localized thunderstorms inland south and west towards the end of the week.

This heat wave will slowly break down towards more normal early July temperatures of 20 to 23 C with an increasing risk of localized showers or thunderstorms but this process will be gradual.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy, very warm and humid with occasional thunderstorms in the vicinity, heavy at times this evening (local time). The high was about 29 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-06-2018 7:20am

Saturday, 23 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunshine dimmed at times by high cloud, warmer. Highs 22 to 25 C inland, 18 to 22 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clear, lows 7 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny, very warm, some coastal areas cooler with sea breezes. Highs generally 24 to 28 C, some coasts 18 to 22 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY will continue mostly sunny, dry and very warm or hot inland, somewhat moderated by sea breezes near coasts. Highs each day 27 to 30 C, lows in the range of 12 to 17 C. There will be a slight risk of local thunderstorm activity later in the week most likely to occur in parts of the inland northwest.

(note: in many areas drought conditions are developing and caution is advised with any open fires -- whatever your local watering restrictions, you will find it more effective to water in the late evening and early morning hours to reduce evaporation)

Around FRIDAY 29th this heat wave will begin to break down with increasing risk of thunderstorms, highs near 26 C. By the following weekend a moderate northerly flow may develop dropping temperatures to the low 20s with a few showers here and there, although possibly not a substantial amount of rain in general. The longer term outlook does hold some chance for more normal conditions including rainfalls, but sometimes these long dry spells are difficult to break down and models can attempt to change the pattern faster than what actually occurs.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and humid with some spells of heavy rain but also some sunny intervals, and highs near 22 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-06-2018 6:25am

Sunday, 24 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and warm with slight sea breezes but highs for most locations 25 to 28 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear, not quite as cool as recent nights, lows 9 to 13 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny and very warm, hot in many parts in fact with highs 26 to 29 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny and very warm or hot, lows 11 to 16 C and highs 26 to 30 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine, hot except in a few coastal areas, lows 12 to 18 C and highs 27 to 32 C (readings above 30 most likely in the inland west). Slight risk of local thunderstorms by Thursday (very small areal coverage if they manage to develop at all).

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, slightly cooler but still quite warm at 25 to 29 C.

OUTLOOK ... A weak push of cooler air from the north will take place around the end of the month and the weekend of 30th-1st July could see highs closer to 24 C although a few places in the south may still get into the 27 C range. Only a slight chance of isolated showers as the situation is essentially a reload of the warmth, if perhaps a little less record-breaking in the first week of July when some highs may again reach 28 or 29 C inland. Given the historical tendencies, I don't really trust details that involve returns to near-normal temperatures or widespread showers although I hope they prove accurate as this coming week is going to create very dry ground conditions for most of the country conducive to local fires in rural areas. This almost goes without saying but the U.V. index will be exceptionally high for Ireland and you could get a sunburn on unprotected skin quite fast (within 15-20 minutes of exposure) especially at the beach where the water and sand reflect the rays. Hate to be a nag and you've probably heard this a few hundred times already.

My local weather is relatively temperate now (we had these conditions in May where I live, June has been closer to normal). The day on Saturday started out cloudy and slowly cleared by late afternoon, the high reaching 22 C.

The coming heat will spread out over most of England, Wales and France as well if you're travelling but not that much more intense than in Ireland this time as the upper level support for anomalous warmth is actually best over Ireland. Since England and France are normally warmer at this time of year, it should even out although with their larger land masses I expect a few slightly higher extreme readings.

M.T. Cranium · 25-06-2018 7:06am

Monday, 25 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some cloudy intervals this morning, hazy sunshine and very warm later, highs eventually 23 to 29 C. Cooling sea breezes in east and south with highs 18 to 21 C near shore.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, warm, lows 13 to 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloud once again may prevail for part of the morning then sunshine is likely to burn through later, very warm or hot inland with highs 25 to 30 C. Once again cooler near east and south coasts (19 to 23 C). Very slight risk of isolated showers in the west.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY look like they may be the peak of this hot spell with more sunshine and perhaps one or two isolated thunderstorms developing, highs 27 to 32 C for many, but still some cooling by sea breezes near east and south coasts (20 to 24 C). Nights will be oppressively warm, lows 14 to 19 C.

FRIDAY will see a slight shift in winds more to a northeast breeze which may cool larger portions of Leinster and Ulster, but it will remain very warm generally with sunshine and highs 25 to 30 C.

OUTLOOK ... Weekend of 30 June and 1 July will become partly cloudy and not quite as warm with the threat of some heavier thunderstorms in the south, and perhaps a significant drop in temperature in parts of the north, while inland south and central regions remain 24 to 28 C, parts of the north could cool down to near 21 C. Following that, slightly warmer again during the week with highs 26 to 29 C. Longer term indications are for a continued warm pattern in July although perhaps not often as extreme as this coming week.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm with a high near 27 C. A strong cold front is rapidly approaching and I am expecting to get woken up by wind, rain and perhaps thunder towards morning. But for now it remains clear with a good view of the nearly full moon between Jupiter and Antares (check it out Monday evening there, you'll find the moon closer to Antares (a red star low in the southern sky) and looking quite full although actual full moon is on the night of 27th-28th.) ... Mars is rising after midnight and looks very bright and distinctly red. Saturn is another prominent object to the left of the moon for the next few nights and near it by Thursday night. It rises about an hour before Mars and can be seen by 11:30 p.m., Mars after 12:30 a.m. low in the southeast. Also, look for Venus after sunset any night this summer, above the setting sun's position in the west-northwest, visible until almost 11 p.m. when it sets.

M.T. Cranium · 26-06-2018 8:16am

Tuesday, 26 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy for part of the morning except for west Munster which has already cleared, and the cloud may drop a few brief, light showers, then hazy sunshine will prevail later with very warm, muggy conditions, somewhat fresher near east and outer south coasts. Highs 25 to 30 C except for some coastal areas which will top out around 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, very warm and muggy, lows 13 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue hot and somewhat humid at times, with the trend towards some cooling sea breezes making inroads into eastern counties, while the core of heat will tend to spread further west. Highest readings each day may be around 31 C, but east and south will be generally about 25 C and coastal areas may be as cool as 18 to 21 C. Nights will be rather oppressively warm with lows 14 to 20 C but cooler within that range in east and north Ulster than elsewhere. These days will likely be rain free in almost all locations but one or two isolated thundershowers cannot be ruled out.

SATURDAY will see increasing cloud with some thundery showers developing in the inland south, continued quite warm and humid but with winds turning a little more to the northeast, allowing larger parts of Leinster to feel some effects of sea breezes. Lows 15 to 20 C and highs 24 to 29 C.

SUNDAY will see somewhat more widespread thunderstorms in the southern half of the country, some areas of light rain may develop further north where it turns somewhat cooler. Highs in the inland south and west about 25 C, east and north around 20 C. Some weekend rainfall totals of 20-30 mm but overall rather hit or miss with 5-10 mm a common outcome.

MONDAY will bring further showers or thunderstorms but amounts may be rather spotty, as a weak disturbance drifts north, with cloudy intervals and some sunny spells. Highs will be around 23 C.

OUTLOOK calls for this weak disturbance to begin drifting away from Ulster by Tuesday allowing the return of dry weather with temperatures fairly close to normal as the origin of this new air mass will be southwest of Ireland, highs 20 to 23 C. Later in the week it may warm up again somewhat towards the mid to high 20s.

My local weather started out with a rumbling thunderstorm that did considerable damage to trees in areas just to our north but spared us, however, long-lasting power outages resulted (here again we were spared while some places within 2 kms of us had the outages). This front has now raced east into the central prairies where it is producing some severe storms. Our high on Monday was about 20 C and more showers and quite cool weather are in store for the next few days here.

M.T. Cranium · 27-06-2018 7:30am

Wednesday, 27 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine in most areas, hot in the west and central counties, comfortably warm due to sea breeze cooling near east and south coasts. There may be some cloudy intervals in Connacht and Ulster generating some locally heavy showers or thunderstorms in a few locations, watch for updates if these form. Highs will range from 20-24 C in cooler coastal areas, to 28 to 32 C in hot western and central counties where sea breezes will be much more limited due to a generally southeast wind flow. Humidity has risen somewhat which may make this heat even more oppressive. There may also be a few places with smoke haze from wildfires.

TONIGHT ... Clearing and very warm and muggy, lows only 15 to 20 C in many places (and slow to cool down to these levels too). Full moon will dominate the night sky.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue this general hot theme with similar cooling to more moderate levels in parts of the east and south. If we do get thunderstorms locally today, that might repeat in one or two locations likely to be just inland from the west coast. Temperatures will also continue similar, highs 28 to 31 C but a little cooler near coasts, and Friday early morning lows will be 15 to 20 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY there will be some chance of isolated thunderstorms forming over the inland south and also along a weak frontal boundary reaching northwest counties at some point, but remaining hot and dry for most of the country, albeit with a stronger easterly breeze driving sea breeze cooling a little further into Leinster. As winds turn more northeast, the south coast will lose some of its sea breeze cooling potential but places like north Mayo and Sligo could see some increase in sea breezes and most of Ulster more certainly will do so. Highs will likely be down slightly to around 27 to 29 C, with 19 to 23 C near east coast. Nights will remain quite warm at 14 to 18 C.

By MONDAY a weak disturbance may be able to push far enough north to reach Ireland and set off some more widespread thunderstorms although the warm, dry theme will not be entirely subdued, highs will still manage to reach 25 to 27 C away from these storms, and a more variable wind regime will promote equal sea breeze potential all around the country. This will perhaps continue into TUESDAY before the weak low either dissipates or drifts far enough north to join the northern frontal zones that will remain near the Ulster coast setting off intermittent showers near the northwest coasts. Highs on Tuesday are likely to be a little cooler near 24 C. After that, it appears that a rather warm regime will reassert itself but this time the wind flow will be more southwesterly so that the east may see the higher temperatures which will be less extreme than this week, at about 27 C. The west may be more like 20-23 C in this pattern. As I've mentioned before, the model bias after ten days is often to return things to normal rather than find any reason to repeat a current anomalous pattern, so it probably makes sense to expect this warmth to persist for a good part of July, hopefully in less extreme form generally speaking, but it would not be much of a surprise if this heat wave was followed by one or two more later in the summer season.

My local weather on Tuesday was cool and pleasant after a rather cloudy morning, some sunny breaks developed, showers staying over the nearby mountain ranges, and highs only 19 or 20 C. Severe storms have now moved east into Manitoba and North Dakota.

M.T. Cranium · 28-06-2018 8:26am

Thursday, 28 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and hot in most areas, trending to pleasantly warm in sea breeze zones near east coast and outer south coast. Highs 28 to 32 C for many, 20 to 25 C in sea breezes with varying temperature regimes in some places a few miles inland (some periods very warm, some cooled by sea breezes). Risk of wildfire smoke haze in a few locations.

TONIGHT ... Clear and warm again with lows about 15 to 20 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue similar with just a very slight cooling trend of about one degree per day in all aspects.

SUNDAY will see an increase in cloud and some chance of scattered thundershowers developing, mainly in the inland south but also near the northwest coasts which may turn considerably cooler for a day or two. That cooling is not likely to extend very far into Connacht or east Ulster with heat continuing at about 25 to 29 C for most, 19 to 23 C some east coast locations.

MONDAY will see further isolated showers or thunderstorms mainly in the south with spells of hazy sunshine further north, highs of about 24 to 28 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be less prone to showers and it will continue quite warm, highs 24 to 28 C except 19 to 23 C around most coasts as all will see sporadic sea breeze activity.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Another chance for showers or thunderstorms from Thursday next (5th July), still rather warm to about 8th of July at least with cooler weather possibly returning after that.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with increasing cloud later afternoon and evening, high of about 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-06-2018 7:43am

Friday, 29 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and hot, except near east coast where sea breezes will make it just pleasantly warm. Highs for most 28 to 32 C, about 20 to 24 near Irish Sea. Some limited sea breeze cooling on other coasts will be rather weak so only noticeable near outer portions of headlands and peninsulas.

TONIGHT ... Clear with haze, very warm and muggy, lows 14 to 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny, continued hot with some rather limited sea breeze cooling, highs 27 to 31 C.

SUNDAY ... Rather cloudy in south, chance of afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms, hazy sunshine further north, although cloudy near Donegal Bay and north Ulster at times. Highs 27 to 30 C central, 24 to 28 C inland south, 20 to 24 C near most coasts and in north.

MONDAY ... Isolated showers or thunderstorms mostly in west Munster, continued very warm. Highs 27 to 30 C except some cooler readings near coasts.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY of next week will continue rather warm and dry with highs 25 to 29 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually the pattern may relax with more frequent cloud, some rain at times, and temperatures closer to normal although not likely to fall much below 23 C daytimes. Eventually it could turn significantly cooler for a few days with chances for heavier rainfalls mid-July.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and cool with light rain at times, highs near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-06-2018 7:52am

Saturday, 30 June, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very warm sunshine will continue for many areas, while banks of low cloud or mist may form near some western coasts, possibly moving inland at times, so that variable conditions may develop for some parts of the west. Later this afternoon, as this marine layer moves further inland, a front is likely to develop from Mayo/Sligo south into Galway, Clare and west Limerick, northwest Cork, and bring the slight risk of thundershowers or at least drizzly outbreaks of light rain locally. And the east will be subject to somewhat more active sea breezes than in recent days, even with some possibility of local mist or low cloud forming in northeast winds. That could bring much lower temperatures on shore in some places. Overall, expect highs to remain in the 27 to 31 C range over about two-thirds of the country, with low 20s or even 18-19 C possible near some coasts. The south coast meanwhile may see less sea breeze cooling if the winds turn northeast but timing of that is uncertain, could apply more to the afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Any showers that form will die out during the evening, and the low cloud regimes near coasts may thin out while spreading over larger areas, so that fog may form almost anywhere while lows remain in the rather uncomfortable range of 14 to 18 C generally.

SUNDAY ... The day may start with more cloud around than most previous days, then break to sunshine, with sea breezes becoming weaker again in west, but continuing fairly strong for Leinster. Increasing cloud over the south coast may lead to evening showers or offshore thunderstorms giving a lightning display if not any significant rain on land from them. Highs about 25 C with a few places making 27 C with longer spells of sunshine, but many coastal areas could be in the 17 to 21 C range and there could be some intervals of sea fog or low cloud there.

MONDAY ... Little change from Sunday as a mixture of cloud and sunshine continue, highs 25 to 29 C inland, 18 to 22 C near some coasts, and slight risk of showers or thunderstorms.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will likely be generally dry days with less cloud and weaker sea breezes, in fact the core of the heat may shift more to Leinster and east Munster, with rather variable winds under a slack pressure gradient. Highs both days 25 to 30 C inland and not that much cooler near coasts, morning lows about 14 C. A slight risk of isolated thunderstorms will develop by late Wednesday.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY show more potential for scattered outbreaks of thundery showers but no guarantee of this becoming anything very widespread, perhaps 10% areal coverage of the land mass of Ireland and possibly a better chance in Northern Ireland than in the Republic. It will stay warm and become increasingly muggy with highs 24 to 30 C.

OUTLOOK is very uncertain with guidance really falling into two camps, one suggesting potential for continued very warm and generally dry weather, while another set of models show a gradual return to more normal July weather increasingly open to the usual southwesterly flow of frontal systems and brief settled intervals between them. As I think there will be more hot spells this summer well into August, an interruption in mid-July would not be that out of place since mid-June was also rather unsettled (briefly).

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with passing light showers and a high near 20 C. We are running about as far below our normal temperatures here for the past week as you have been above your normals. So I guess we have been dealt the "trough" card while you got "ridge" for that period. The eastern half of North America meanwhile has turned very hot with some readings close to 35 C on Friday.

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