Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Stupid statement, the virus was an unknown and many deaths which occurred back in the first couple of months of 2020 were most likely recorded as having passed away due to complications from a respiratory illness/Pneumonia and not Covid due to lack of awareness/testing.
Not to mention that many Covid infected are asymptomatic, a lot of cases could have been circulating with people passing it off as a flu and spreading it across Europe and on to the U.S.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/surveillance-and-disease-data/flu-news-europe
Have a read through this. Low influenza activity throughout almost all of Europe throughout all of early winter 2020. COVID was not here before late February/early March.

bb1234567 wrote: »

And the point is that that is completely unproven. One case does not equal evidence of widespread of community transmission. As you say yourself, it is highly infectious, so why would it take so long for the thousands of excess deaths to register in March so many months later if it spreads so quickly.And no, it was not spreading undetected, excess deaths and influenza like illness activity levels were below normal throughout the winter in all of Europe until late fenruary and early March. It makes a lot more sense thatt it was an isolated case.

Do you have the figures for deaths due to respiratory illness/Pneumonia? How many of those were recorded as such because no tests for Sars-Cov2 were being done at the start of the year.

Deleted User wrote: »

Did it decide to wait 2 months to start killing people

Stupid statement, the virus was an unknown and many deaths which occurred back in the first couple of months of 2020 were most likely recorded as having passed away due to complications from a respiratory illness/Pneumonia and not Covid due to lack of awareness/testing.
Not to mention that many Covid infected are asymptomatic, a lot of cases could have been circulating with people passing it off as a flu and spreading it across Europe and on to the U.S.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Point is that the virus was in circulation in Europe at the earliest in December, and in Germany during January and with this being a highly infectious virus it spread like wildfire through the EU...

And the point is that that is completely unproven. One case does not equal evidence of widespread of community transmission. As you say yourself, it is highly infectious, so why would it take so long for the thousands of excess deaths to register in March so many months later if it spreads so quickly.And no, it was not spreading undetected, excess deaths and influenza like illness activity levels were below normal throughout the winter in all of Europe until late fenruary and early March. It makes a lot more sense thatt it was an isolated case.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Point is that the virus was in circulation in Europe at the earliest in December, and in Germany during January and with this being a highly infectious virus it spread like wildfire through the EU...

Again there is no evidence it was in circulation in Europe in December. 1 case near Charles de Gaulle airport in someone who had a family member who worked at the airport, with multiple direct flights from Wuhan to Charles de Gaulle every week. Where were the excess deaths observed from late February? Did it decide to wait 2 months to start killing people

Deleted User wrote: »

1 case does not equal widespread transmission. France tested a sample of leftover specimens that tested negative for flu in December / January and found 1 case. Given there was only one it’s far more likely to be an isolated case or even a false positive than evidence of spread in Europe.

Point is that the virus was in circulation in Europe at the earliest in December, and in Germany during January and with this being a highly infectious virus it spread like wildfire through the EU...

KaneToad

Micky 32 wrote: »

What do you expect when someone starts dictating to others what they should eat.

Most vegans don't tell others what to eat. A handful of activists and interest groups do (similar to Irish Dairy Board, BIM, IFA etc..). They've gained prominence in recent years as veganism has become "trendy". Your bog standard vegan follows a vegan diet and doesn't pontificate.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

We had open borders and 100's of flights from France where the first person infected with Covid19 was said to have happened between 14 and 22 December.

1 case does not equal widespread transmission. France tested a sample of leftover specimens that tested negative for flu in December / January and found 1 case. Given there was only one it’s far more likely to be an isolated case or even a false positive than evidence of spread in Europe.

Deleted User wrote: »

Any evidence at all that it was here in December? We do have a peak in influenza like infections from December/ January that coincides with what..an identical peak in confirmed influenza cases, then we have the March peak coinciding with Covid.

We had open borders and 100's of flights from France where the first person infected with Covid19 was said to have happened between 14 and 22 December.

drunkmonkey

NH2013 wrote: »

Except we are an international hub, look at our economy based on many foreign tech companies investing and setting up here in the last 10+ years.

Look at Dublin Airport, the 6th largest hub for connecting Europe to North America in Europe, Dublin airport was the 20th busiest airport for international passengers in the world last year.

Look at our tourism industry which brings in 11m+ international tourists every year vs New Zealands 3.8m tourists.

We're an international hub whether we like it or not, much more connected to the world and different population centers than NZ, cut that out and our economy would be even more f**ked than it already is.

Most of that is past tense, we won't be letting in 11m+ tourists for a long time.
Domestic tourism is what needs to be promoted while trying to keep our borders New Zeland tight. Dr Tony said tonight you can't compare New Zeland to Ireland, you can if you acknowledge Ireland is an Island. He decided we're Europeans so can't, not sure if he actually believes that or he's just towing the party line.

bb1234567 wrote: »

Typical straw man , I never said Ireland was comparable to Iran. It was simply a counter to your argument that the virus has naturally disappeared from regardless of human intervention , you never said that process was only specific to certain locations, Iran proves that that is not the case that and that a resurgence is possible if restrictions are lifted inefficiently or prematurely even in a country that has experienced large numbers of infections already throughout march April and May.

Anyway you've essentially nullified your own argument. So now you do in fact agree resurgence is possible if *insert excuse of high population density , poor healthcare etc* , perhaps then change your argument to say that you think a secondary wave will not occur in Ireland/the west . Has a bit more credibility then and perhaps it may turn out to be true, but as I said previously it would be so silly to consider that a guarantee.

Covid was at the peak when Ireland introduced the Lockdown. We don't know that the beginning of the Outbreak was March, when it could have present in the population last December.
Yet with retail stores more like operating theatres, and 14 day quarantines for incoming tourists, we're about 5 months too late.

Micky 32

bb1234567 wrote: »

They're like those people who complain constantly about how loud and pushy vegans are but are in fact themselves far more loud and aggressive than any vegan out of there

What do you expect when someone starts dictating to others what they should eat.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Comparing Ireland, a well developed European country and one of the more affluent in the world with places like Iran, where the medical system is probably using 20 or 30 year old ventilators due to severe US led Sanctions, and little or no PPE for medical staff, along with no restrictions on the large numbers of Chinese who travel to Iran.
And Brazil led by a mad man, 13 million Brazilians live in favelas, often with more than three people per room and little access to clean water. Physical distancing and hygiene recommendations are near impossible to follow in these environments..

Typical straw man , I never said Ireland was comparable to Iran. It was simply a counter to your argument that the virus has naturally disappeared regardless of human intervention , you never said that process was only specific to certain locations, Iran proves that that is not the case that and that a resurgence is possible if restrictions are lifted inefficiently or prematurely even in a country that has experienced large numbers of infections already throughout march April and May.

Anyway you've essentially nullified your own argument. So now you do in fact agree resurgence is possible if *insert excuse of high population density , poor healthcare etc* , perhaps then change your argument to say that you think a secondary wave Isn't possible in Ireland/the west ONLY. Has a bit more credibility then and perhaps it may well turn out to be true, but as I said previously it would be so silly to consider that a guarantee considering there is no proof of that,no precedent, and at least some evidence(Iran ,not comparable to Ireland but it is not nothing) to the contrary.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

When was the beginning of the outbreak?

Covid19 may have been circulating in Ireland since December 2019.

Measures you say contributed to the decline were only introduced as the peak number of infections was in the downward phase of the pandemic, of which is still continuing now into single digits.

Any evidence at all that it was here in December? We do have a peak in influenza like infections from December/ January that coincides with what..an identical peak in confirmed influenza cases, then we have the March peak coinciding with Covid.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Yeah we all know there are certain posters who get off on posting the death rates when a place is in the midst of an outbreak but are nowhere to be seen when things get better. New york for example. We were getting daily death updates, now not a mention. Same with Italy and Spain. In fact, now that things are getting better in most places they are nowhere to be seen except to pop in occasionally to warn of the mythical second wave or other unsubstantiated fear mongering (such as the virus laying dormant for years and "activating". Lol)

Its painfully obvious what their game is.

What is their game? I am interested to know. There are some who appear to have an irrational fear, and some who are way way too cautious, but a game?

Morrison J

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Denmark began reopening mid April. Gyms open and Bars and restaurants have been very busy for the past three weeks (with not very strict social distancing) and their numbers are still slowly coming down daily.

Denmark are one of the best countries in Europe for testing and tracing in quick turnaround time though aren't they? We're still too slow which is the big difference.

bb1234567 wrote: »

I hate to bring in worst case scenario examples into these disucssions but statements such as that are just so ignorant and grating. Iran has experienced an epidemic for months now and it finally waned, only now to appear with a great resurgence in cases yet again when measures were totally relaxed. So, no , the virus does not just disappear on it's own, and will obviously not disappear for good unless we maintain a cautious stance. You seriously think this is going to be gone from Brazil in a few weeks left to it's own devices like it did in ireland because of all we have done to stop it, honestly? I think that is insane

Comparing Ireland, a well developed European country and one of the more affluent in the world with places like Iran, where the medical system is probably using 20 or 30 year old ventilators due to severe US led Sanctions, and little or no PPE for medical staff, along with no restrictions on the large numbers of Chinese who travel to Iran.
And Brazil led by a mad man, 13 million Brazilians live in favelas, often with more than three people per room and little access to clean water. Physical distancing and hygiene recommendations are near impossible to follow in these environments..

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Isn't it odd that we haven't seen increasing case numbers with more social mixing recently?

It’s not really when you consider the low base we are starting from. 500 cases associated with travel were introduced at random around the country with no restrictions in early March. Now we are having around 30 a day on average with contact tracing isolating all those contacts

Stormyteacup

is_that_so wrote: »

Didn't Phillip Nolan suggest that it was all but gone from the community? Most recent cases seem to have come from meat factories.

Philip Nolan told us that on 23rd April - over six weeks ago. Transmission in general population has been effectively zero for more than six weeks.

Packed beaches and beauty spots, a couple of marches and how many bank holidays later and people still waiting on the surge.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Of course a Virus needs hosts to survive and to propagate, each time it replicates and moves through a population it gets weaker as more bad copies are made, and also its lethality is reduced.

Unless you're saying that Viruses don't have a standard life-cycle pattern and can solely be stopped by having perspex screens and hand sanitiser?

If so I suggest you look at what happened with the first Coronavirus outbreak in 2003.

So much wrong here. 2003 was a coronavirus, not the first. Sometimes bad copies make the virus worse not milder, it’s a random process and as milder strain may tend to appear over time, it won’t be the case in every location.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

When was the beginning of the outbreak?

Covid19 may have been circulating in Ireland since December 2019.

Measures you say contributed to the decline were only introduced as the peak number of infections was in the downward phase of the pandemic, of which is still continuing now into single digits.

It's extremely unlikely, no increase in excess death before March,no increase in numbers of influenza like illnesses before March, in fact it was a particularly mild flu season this winter in both Ireland and across Europe ,likely very low number of people with antibodies based on results of antibody tests on the mainland. Your argument relies on a number of very unknown pieces of information and is very unconvincing

Gael23 wrote: »

Tony says the mission had not been accomplished

Instilling more fear and panic as usual

“Mission not accomplished” equals “fear and panic”. The mind boggles

What Username Guidelines

[Deleted User] wrote: »

People are still getting the virus. An increase in close contact transmission and clusters in households. Stats we saw when it was starting.

Eradicate it completely as in no known cases for a week and you can abolish all social distancing. I dont think we were far off it, it's a pity.

The increase in close contact transmission in private households is down to the change in testing where all close contacts now get tested twice. So basically this has all been happening since the beginning but you needed symptoms to get a test, so likely lots of cases missed.

Even with this increased amount of testing, the numbers are still going down.

poppers

Deleted User wrote: »

We eased too soon. It would be much better to eradicate it in the country and abolish social distancing completely.

More nonsense
off the top of my head the following were going to lead to the dreaded second wave.
Keellins bring in forgien workers no spike
Huge numbers heading to their holiday homes over easter didnt cause it to spike
may bank hol eveyone out no spike
teenager out playing no spike.
N. Ireland visitors not being subject to travel limit no spike (donegal is nearly 3 weeks with out a case).
Not wearing face masks has not resulted in a spike.

there is actually a case to be made we eased to slowly.

bb1234567 wrote: »

I am saying as far as we know measures such as that are far more likely to have contributed to the decline either mostly or totally given it is a novel virus with an unknown epidimioligical life cycle. Do you think it is smart to say that it probably disappeared based on an unproven theory rather than measures introduced at the beginning of the outbreak that we know help to prevent transmission of respiratory virus? What kind of message do you think that would send it we stood by that belief?

When was the beginning of the outbreak?

Covid19 may have been circulating in Ireland since December 2019.

Measures you say contributed to the decline were only introduced as the peak number of infections was in the downward phase of the pandemic, of which is still continuing now into single digits.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There has been a lot of scientific concensus that there's a certain amount of the population who are immune. For example, smokers have had a lot lower infection rate than would be expected.

Maybe smokers have in built social distancing as they headed off to well ventilated smoking areas while everyone else crowed into bars restaurants canteens etc

ceadaoin.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any evidence anywhere on this thread or any other thread of any poster ever being disappointed with lower cases or deaths? If not stfu with this ridiculous ****e

Yeah we all know there are certain posters who get off on posting the death rates when a place is in the midst of an outbreak but are nowhere to be seen when things get better. New york for example. We were getting daily death updates, now not a mention. Same with Italy and Spain. In fact, now that things are getting better in most places they are nowhere to be seen except to pop in occasionally to warn of the mythical second wave or other unsubstantiated fear mongering (such as the virus laying dormant for years and "activating". Lol)

Its painfully obvious what their game is.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any evidence anywhere on this thread or any other thread of any poster ever being disappointed with lower cases or deaths? If not stfu with this ridiculous ****e

They're like those people who complain constantly about how loud and pushy vegans are but are in fact themselves far more loud and aggressive than any vegan out of there

Micky 32

Gael23 wrote: »

Tony says the mission had not been accomplished

Instilling more fear and panic as usual

Yep and it worked, when my doomsday mother listened to him she started mouthing off everyones gonna get the virus they are all in the shops spreading it!! FML