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Snow (showers and longer spells) Sunday evening - Tuesday morning, possibly longer

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  • 29-02-2008 1:12am
    #1
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭


    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn784.png


    Keep a good eye Monday night in particular - 850'shpa level temps well below -5 and maxes around 0 - 1C and as you can see plenty of precipitation around. This is a good time of year for thetup as we wont have to worry about lack of inland convection.

    There is also a slim possibility the cold snap could go on past Tuesday but for now its Sunday night onward.


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    #2
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    I wouldn bet on maxes of 0C or 1C darkman. Maybe in showers the temp will yo yo just like Mothmans in his backyard in any showers. With -5C 850mb temps, your looking at no lower than 5C or 6C surface temps in sun. Will naturally plummet in precip.


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    #3
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Snowbie wrote: »
    I wouldn bet on maxes of 0C or 1C darkman. Maybe in showers the temp will yo yo just like Mothmans in his backyard in any showers. With -5C 850mb temps, your looking at no lower than 5C or 6C surface temps in sun. Will naturally plummet in precip.

    Sorry Snowbie - I meant those maxes on Sunday night along with the precip then. Naturally in lying snow temps would really struggle. Looks pretty good right now - hope its not jinxed!:D

    BTW you will note the cynisism about the upcoming setup on UK forums but for us this is excellent.


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    #4
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    For the last two mornings in a row,the 755am forecast on radio one mentioned snow and hail showers on monday.
    This morning they even mentioned the slight possiblity of prolonged sleet and snow on tuesday but gave no details.


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    #5
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,293 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Latest GFS is looking very stormy/snowy for middle of next week. Still a bit far out though...

    Edit: In fact the 18z for Wednesday would be madness for the London area if it came off...

    A


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    #6
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Deleted User wrote: »
    For the last two mornings in a row,the 755am forecast on radio one mentioned snow and hail showers on monday.
    This morning they even mentioned the slight possiblity of prolonged sleet and snow on tuesday but gave no details.

    They would be using the ECM so it would be this chart

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif - I can see where they are coming from. Looks like there is a front West to East across the country. Remians to be seen how much this changes but Monday looks bitter on the ECM. Sunday night should see snow showers IMO.


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    #7
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,669 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I told you folks March would have a few tricks in store for us after the mild February.


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    #8
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Could be a snow fest for some on Sunday night, if not all

    http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=72&carte=1007


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    #9
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Interesting snap, but things look very marginal, an increase in depth of that low to our northwest or a distrubance will cause the temperature to rise too much.

    As it is however the 6z GFS is sweet for next Monday however.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

    But we are talking heavy wintry showers.


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    #10
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Id bet my house that showers from Sunday night onward will be exclusively snow esspecially inland;) There is a real good chance many will wake up to at least a dusting and if the ECM is right also something more prolonged Monday night. This is possibly the most substantial chance of snow since the beginning of January.


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    #11
    ch750536
    Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Id bet my house that showers from Sunday night onward will be exclusively snow esspecially inland;) There is a real good chance many will wake up to at least a dusting and if the ECM is right also something more prolonged Monday night. This is possibly the most substantial chance of snow since the beginning of January.

    I'll take that bet.


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    #12
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Interesting snap, but things look very marginal, an increase in depth of that low to our northwest or a distrubance will cause the temperature to rise too much.

    As it is however the 6z GFS is sweet for next Monday however.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

    But we are talking heavy wintry showers.
    The "chatter" amongst U.S forecasters is of the ECMWF models's solutions veering closer to that of the GFS.
    That will make tonights output and tomorrows very interesting and for a very interesting potentially countryfile forecast on sunday.
    Theres no excuse that they can use like running out of time on that broadcast,they have to nail their colours to the mast as to sunday night monday and tuesday or they mayaswell cancel the broadcast.

    Longfield,I'd be charging up the camera by the way as you never know ... ;)


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    #13
    Paddy.1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Paddy.1


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Interesting snap, but things look very marginal, an increase in depth of that low to our northwest or a distrubance will cause the temperature to rise too much.

    As it is however the 6z GFS is sweet for next Monday however.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

    But we are talking heavy wintry showers.

    No disrespect, but I can't see anything to get overly excited about in that chart. A few wintry showers maybe with some localised lying slush for an hour or 2 at night. Am I missing something?


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    #14
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    www.met.ie
    Warnings


    Weather Warning

    Issued at 29 February 2008 - 13:46
    Weather Advisory
    Wintry showers of hail, sleet or snow from Sunday evening to early Tuesday. Accumulations up to 3cm possible in places and more on higher ground.


    So what do you think - should I apply for my job at met eireann or wait for the phone call?:D


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    #15
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    darkman2 wrote: »
    www.met.ie




    So what do you think - should I apply for my job at met eireann or wait for the phone call?:D

    No need they're on their way to your house right now:p. Looks interesting atm alright would be great to get Monday off after just having 2 weeks work experience:D.


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    #16
    Paddy.1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Paddy.1


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The "chatter" amongst U.S forecasters is of the ECMWF models's solutions veering closer to that of the GFS.
    Where are you hearing this BB? since GFS seem to be backing slowly (but surely) away from anything interesting, and since any cold synoptics being shown by GFS lately were just a following of the cold outlook ECMWF had a few days ago before they backed down?

    I hope you are right though.. I am past wanting anything snow wise for this winter, but I am hoping that the unstable air will bring the potential for thunder from sunday night onwards.. March usually delivers here quite well on that score.


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    #17
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,669 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Paddy.1 wrote: »
    Where are you hearing this BB? since GFS seem to be backing slowly (but surely) away from anything interesting, and since any cold synoptics being shown by GFS lately were just a following of the cold outlook ECMWF had a few days ago before they backed down?

    I hope you are right though.. I am past wanting anything snow wise for this winter, but I am hoping that the unstable air will bring the potential for thunder from sunday night onwards.. March usually delivers here quite well on that score.

    I can relate to what you're saying. So, i'm not going to get my hopes up too much for this either.


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    #18
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Paddy.1 wrote: »
    Where are you hearing this BB? since GFS seem to be backing slowly (but surely) away from anything interesting, and since any cold synoptics being shown by GFS lately were just a following of the cold outlook ECMWF had a few days ago before they backed down?
    The NWS (United States) discussion on their forecast composition-which is their current thinking on model performance evaluation to date over there.
    It's an opinion from them on reliability as they are not shy in saying as to what models or mix of models they use and why at a particular point.

    I'm not saying I agree with them as there are particular peculiarities with some Western Europe synoptics and whats in front of us is no exception to that.


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    #19
    Paddy.1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Paddy.1


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I can relate to what you're saying. So, i'm not going to get my hopes up too much for this either.

    We may well get some snow showers alright, which might give a dusting, but it is not looking like it will be anything more than a 24hr event, if at all. However, some Atlantic thunderstorms might be more of an interest. Lets hope anyway!!


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    #20
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,342 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Longfield,I'd be charging up the camera by the way as you never know ... ;)

    Believe me, I've been watching this very very closely :D
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #21
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Paddy.1 wrote: »
    We may well get some snow showers alright, which might give a dusting, but it is not looking like it will be anything more than a 24hr event, if at all. However, some Atlantic thunderstorms might be more of an interest. Lets hope anyway!!

    Yep i agree nothing more than 24hrs and probably less atm depending on the next two runs which could change this.
    Cant see this being too exciting over the eastern side of the country either.The pressure is really rising from monday afternoon onwards and i expect that monday evening and night will be cold and blustery in the east with showers kept going on the windward coasts.

    As for Sunday evening the cold air digging in behind the front will probably turn to snow for a short time mainly settling over the higher ground with amounts very small as it pushes SE.


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    #22
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,669 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Snowbie wrote: »
    Yep i agree nothing more than 24hrs and probably less atm depending on the next two runs which could change this.
    Cant see this being too exciting over the eastern side of the country either.The pressure is really rising from monday afternoon onwards and i expect that monday evening and night will be cold and blustery in the east with showers kept going on the windward coasts.

    As for Sunday evening the cold air digging in behind the front will probably turn to snow for a short time mainly settling over the higher ground with amounts very small as it pushes SE.


    well, getting into March i think a 24 hour event is the best we can hope for. A few hours of heavy snow showers will do me at this stage. i just hope at sometime in my life i can experience what some of the posters here got to witness in the winter of 1982.


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    #23
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,342 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    24hours = 24hours more snow than most people posting here have seen in years nacho, dont knock that!
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #24
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,466 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I see Met Eireann have a weather warning up in relation to this.
    Issued at 29 February 2008 - 13:46
    Weather Advisory
    Wintry showers of hail, sleet or snow from Sunday evening to early Tuesday. Accumulations up to 3cm possible in places and more on higher ground.


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    #25
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,342 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    There are a few posters here living on "higher ground" ,if it happens like that, we should hopefully know about it :)
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #26
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,293 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Well, Evelyn just mentioned the 'S' word for Monday. Looks like the showers could turn up anywhere. A nowcast event I think but more likely in the west.


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    #27
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    18z GFS is a slight upgrade. Well the potential is there for some widespread wintry showers and snow. Winds remaining strong so most places at risk from a heavy shower.It will still be a short lived snap.Here is to more upgrades.

    Also of note is GFS FI is throwing a sustained N'ly from next weekend on too.


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    #28
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    im not believing any 'runs' even if rte and bbc make us 100% believe ther will be snow, look how the last cold snap turned out, all the charts were painting snow all over ireland even up the last second and then nothng happened except down in kerry. Also the heavy snow that I got in January was downgraded to nothing at the last minute then boom, 6 inchs of snow so im just gonna stick my head out the window on sunday/monday/tuesday and see where the snow falls/doesnt fall:)


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    #29
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,669 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Longfield wrote: »
    24hours = 24hours more snow than most people posting here have seen in years nacho, dont knock that!

    Longfield, I'm quite happy to only get a 24 hour window of snow. In ireland it's rare to get a widespread snow event past 48 hours no matter what month it is.
    A couple of inches- even an inch of lying snow will satisfy me during this event. hell, even we get very heavy snow showers like the last time that'll do me.:D


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    #30
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    even in the 80s snow spells at this time of the year were not much longer than 2 to 3 days, March is stretchin it for long periods of cold and snowy weather now that January/February are finished with.


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    #31
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,664 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Met Eireann are fairly going for it on Monday:
    Some accumulations of snow and drifting will occur causing some disruption. Further snow showers with frost Monday night with sub-zero temperatures.


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