Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Friday, 28 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 28 Oct to 3 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal, with a slight downward trend towards more average values.
-- Rainfalls will continue quite heavy, with 50 per cent above average plus the effects of recent very heavy rainfalls overnight.
-- Sunshine will be restricted to brief intervals, amounting to perhaps half of normal amounts.
-- South to southwest winds will be persistent.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... An active squall line will move through Leinster within the next hour or two, and further outbreaks of heavy rain will occur in the midlands, east and Ulster. Eventually skies will clear briefly with strong southwest to west winds (50-80 km/hr). By afternoon, overcast skies will return and winds will back to southerly, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing. Temperatures will remain steady 13-16 C. Note that 20-30 mm of rain has fallen in many areas overnight and some local flooding is likely to develop, travel with caution.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with occasional rain becoming heavy across parts of the south then later central and eastern counties. 15-30 mm will occur with possible flooding. Lows 11-13 C.
SATURDAY will continue breezy and wet, 15-30 mm totals moving further north, winds southeast to south 40-60 km/hr, highs 13-15 C.
SUNDAY will bring overcast skies and some outbreaks of rain, temperatures steady 11-13 C.
Another storm system is likely to develop Monday and peak Tuesday. Rain and strong southwest winds are expected, temperatures near 10 C.
The rest of next week is likely to be unsettled with temperatures somewhat cooler (7-9 C) and frequent showers or outbreaks of rain, and some very windy intervals possible.
My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with highs near 7 C. Milder air is moving in from the Pacific, it's already 15 C one valley further west with moderate south winds, and that air mass should arrive here soon, but rain will follow.
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Saturday, 29 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue similar, temperatures gradually returning to more seasonal levels but the average 2 deg above normal, wet at times especially for the south and west, mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and sometimes quite windy from the southwest.
FORECASTS
TODAY will continue quite mild with intervals of rain spreading north, already covering most of Munster and south Leinster, reaching central counties by late morning and the north just after mid-day. About 10-15 mm rain expected, somewhat less in "rainshadow" areas north of high ground. Winds southeast 30-50 km/hr veering to southerly 40-60 km/hr. Highs 13-15 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few more showers, moderate south winds, lows 9-12 C.
SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, some intervals of light rain but overall not too wet, highs 12-14 C.
MONDAY will be breezy to windy at times with outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs 12-14 C, possibly turning cooler in western counties by afternoon. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr.
TUESDAY after a brief dry interval, more wind and rain is expected, some of it rather heavy, 15-30 mm likely, winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr again, lows 6-8 C and highs 9-11 C.
WEDNESDAY will be breezy to windy with showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY could bring a somewhat drier interlude as a high pressure area drifts across the south in a larger break between systems, so partly cloudy to overcast with just isolated showers and moderate northwest winds backing to southwest during Friday, rain to follow Highs both days around 9 C.
The weekend of 5-6 Nov looks rather unsettled with strong winds returning, outbreaks of rain, temperatures rising somewhat to around 12 C.
The week following also looks unsettled at times with a westerly flow, heavier rain by this time will have shifted away from the south towards the northwest coast and Ulster. Temperatures in the week of 7-13 Nov appear likely to be just slightly above normal in the 9-12 C range for highs and 4-7 C for lows.
My local weather on Friday turned out overcast with drizzle for the morning, dry later on, and a bit milder as expected, highs reaching 8-10 C.
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Sunday, 30 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week ahead remain unsettled, and quite wet in western counties towards the end of the week. Temperatures will become more variable and mid-week will be slightly cooler than average but the week may average one degree above normal. Strong southwest winds at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy, a few showers near south coast, isolated showers elsewhere, one or two could become thundery. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast with rain at times, lows 8-10 C.
MONDAY will bring outbreaks of rain becoming more concentrated over eastern counties. Highs 11 to 13 C east, temperatures dropping slightly by afternoon in western counties to 8-10 C, with some breaks in the overcast there.
TUESDAY will become windy again (southwest 50-80 km/hr) with rain becoming heavy at times. Lows 7-9 C and highs 11-14 C.
WEDNESDAY windy with showers, lows 8-10 C and highs 11-14 C.
THURSDAY will be breezy and cooler with passing showers, lows 6-8 C and highs 8-11 C.
FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with increasing cloud, rain by the overnight hours. Lows 4-6 C and highs 8-11 C.
Next weekend will be windy, possibly stormy at times, with temperatures back into the current 11-14 C range. This may continue at times in the week to follow as the flow settles back into the southwest after a brief westerly interval mid-week. Rainfalls in western counties may amount to values of 120-150 mm during this entire interval.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high near 10 C.
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Monday, 31 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 31 Oct to 6 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal, closer to average around Thursday, then milder again.
-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, with further increases expected in the second week.
-- Sunshine will be infrequent and may be held down to 25-50 per cent of normal.
-- Sometimes very windy from the southwest.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of rain across western counties at first, then transferring more to the east by afternoon, with western counties possibly seeing some brighter intervals as well as a slight drop in temperatures. Highs 12 to 14 C, temperatures dropping to 8-10 C in western counties by afternoon.
TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain, lows 7-9 C.
TUESDAY will be rather windy with occasional rain, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr by afternoon. Highs 10-13 C.
WEDNESDAY will become very windy especially in northern counties, where southwest to west gales of 70 to 120 km/hr are likely. Showers may be squally at times with thunder. Lows 7-9 C and highs 10-13 C.
THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and cooler, with a spell of rain in the north, passing showers further south, winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows 4-6 C and highs 7-9 C.
FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud with rain and strong winds by evening, lows 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.
SATURDAY could also be very windy with southwest gales expected, and a brief rise in temperature to around 14 C. Rain or showers likely.
From that point on, a rather mild pattern similar to last week will redevelop with temperatures considerably milder (13-16 C at times) and heavy rainfalls expected in western counties. This unsettled interval may transform into a mild and dry pattern for a time around mid-November.
My local weather on Sunday was overcast and cool, mostly dry but a few spots of rain at times in the afternoon, highs near 7 C.
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Tuesday, 1 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue as described yesterday, mild although closer to average than last week, frequent rain and strong winds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, winds actually slacking for a time as a weak low forms inland this afternoon. Some northern areas will retain moderate southwest winds though. Highs 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT will become windy with rain, winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows 6-9 C.
WEDNESDAY will be stormy, as a strong front sweeps through the country from daybreak to mid-day. Winds will increase to southwest 70-120 km/hr in many areas, as this front moves rapidly through. Squally showers and risk of thunderstorms, localized flooding and wind damage. Travel with caution. Temperatures steady in the 10-12 C range. Winds will ease gradually by afternoon and evening although still 50-80 km/hr.
THURSDAY will remain rather windy and will become cooler with winds veering to northwest 60-90 km/hr. Lows 6-8 C and highs 7-9 C.
FRIDAY will start out cool and dry, winds will ease for a time, then increasing cloud and strong southerly winds will develop. Lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.
SATURDAY will be breezy and mild, rain will be heavy at times. Winds strongest near daybreak south to southwest 70-110 km/hr, then easing gradually. Lows near 8 C and highs 12-15 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will remain windy and mild with rain, highs 12-15 C.
There will be further mild weather, sometimes unsettled, for the rest of next week. Eventually a more settled interval of high pressure may replace the Atlantic driven regime.
My local weather on Monday was overcast with highs near 7 C. The cloud ceilings were so low that some clouds had formed in the valley below us as well as others near local hilltop heights, and through the gaps some sunlight could be seen on hills further east; it was an odd sky indeed.
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Wednesday, 2 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain wet and windy with temperatures cooling for a couple of days then milder again by the weekend.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be quite stormy and there will be risks of localized flooding and wind damage, as trees are confronted with the combined effect of strong wind gusts and saturated ground. Squally and sometimes thundery showers or longer intervals of rain will develop and some places will see 20-30 mm in quite short intervals, leading to local flooding of some roads and urban areas, small streams overflowing in places. Southwest winds 70-110 km/hr but potential for higher gusts near storm cells. Partial clearing may follow for a time around mid-day west, afternoon east but winds will then become very strong in parts of Connacht by late afternoon and evening (southwest 80-120 km/hr in exposed locations). Temperatures throughout in the 11-14 C range, but with the strong winds it may not necessarily feel all that mild outside. Travel with caution especially in Connacht and Munster, parts of central Leinster and west Ulster.
TONIGHT will continue quite windy with passing showers, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, lows 6-8 C.
THURSDAY a low will form and travel east across the southern counties bringing some persistent light rain, and moderate wind gusts near the south coast. With the track set through Munster and south Leinster, winds may turn east to northeast for a time in central and northern counties, and bring in rather chilly air so temperatures may be in the 6-8 C range north, 8-11 C south. Slightly improved by late afternoon and evening in the northwest at any rate.
FRIDAY will start out partly cloudy and cool with morning lows 3-6 C. Increasing cloud mid-day and strong winds and briefly heavy downpours sweeping in during the evening and overnight hours. Highs 10-13 C. Winds reaching 80-110 km/hr in some areas.
SATURDAY will then become partly to mostly cloudy with showers and temperatures in the 10-14 C range.
SUNDAY windy at times with rain, highs 11-15 C.
This mild, unsettled regime will continue for some time into the following week; there are faint indications of some improved spells of dry weather to follow but would like to see this trend appearing on a regular basis each daily forecast cycle before really putting a lot of stock in that actually happening (last month some two-week range outlooks were rather poor on the forecast models).
My local weather remains rather drab and cold with drizzle or sleet at times, not much accumulation though. Highs only around 3-4 C. There is a hurricane brewing north of Nicaragua (Lisa) heading for a landfall near Belize and Mexico, which may affect some resort areas there tonight and Thursday morning. Another tropical storm northeast of Bermuda (Martin) also looks capable of becoming a hurricane and later a very strong extratropical low but it should stay on a track more towards Iceland eventually. Keeping an eye on Martin's actual track potential though.
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Thursday, 3 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal, despite today being rather chilly and possibly a bit below normal in places.
-- Rainfalls will vary from 50% above normal in parts of the west, to 50% below normal in the east.
-- Sunshine will not be frequent but could begin to return to more average November values (2.5 hours a day).
-- Moderate rather than strong southwest winds at times, but keeping an eye on Hurricane Martin whose remnants will produce a low drifting past to the north around Sunday (some potential for that to generate a stronger event than currently expected)
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks at times, scattered light showers or intervals of misty light rain. A weak low west of Ireland now will drift across Munster towards south Leinster, areas near this track and to its south will remain a bit milder with highs 10-12 C. North of the track, chilly with winds backing into northeast, drizzle or light rain. Highs there 8-10 C. Moderate northwest winds later this afternoon in parts of west Munster feeding in from a north to northeast wind flow over Connacht and the midlands.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, mainly dry once the light showers leave the southeast, and cold. Lows 2 to 5 C.
FRIDAY will start out partly cloudy with sunny intervals. Cloud will gradually increase from the southwest by afternoon. Rain and stronger winds will arrive by evening. Highs 10 to 13 C.
SATURDAY will see the early morning rain and wind ease to more moderate southwest winds, after they peak at about 60-90 km/hr. About 10-15 mm of rain is likely, but by mid-day and afternoon, just a few isolated showers. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY will be breezy to windy, as remnants of Hurricane Martin (currently located southeast of Newfoundland) move past to the north. This low may be fairly weak by then although likely to be very strong today to mid-day Saturday on its journey. If it retains a bit more power than expected, then some stronger winds are possible. Otherwise, moderate southwest winds with intervals of rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 13.
MONDAY will continue rather mild with occasional rain and in fact most of the following week will be mild and somewhat unsettled, although a pattern change seems to be slowly settling in during the week and the second week in the outlook period, while still rather mild, is now expected to feature high pressure, light winds and some clear skies at times. Highs through this two-week interval will start out very mild (13-15 C) and will then settle in around 10-11 C during the dry spell. Not much frost is expected with this at the moment although things could change in the details.
My local weather was quite cold again with a low cloud base and spits of graupel or sleet, as a very thin snow cover gets established at higher elevations nearby. People are commenting about how unusual the late leaf fall has been this year, some trees still showing quite a bit of fall colour; highs on Wednesday were around 3 C. Rather frosty as it clears slowly overnight (-4 C at 11 p.m. here).
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Friday, 4 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue similar, generally mild, wet at times but mainly confined to western counties, moderate southerly winds. Better sunshine than in past days, perhaps exceeding normal amounts.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out sunny to partly cloudy, with increasing cloud by afternoon, and rain in south, west by evening. Highs 10-13 C.
TONIGHT rain (10-20 mm) and moderate south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, lows 7-10 C.
SATURDAY ... the rain will gradually taper to showers, some brighter intervals, followed by showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Mild with highs 12-15 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, sometimes heavy, gusty southwest winds at times, as remnants of former hurricane Martin move past Donegal Bay. (A severe storm is not currently indicated but keeping a close watch on this as post-tropical Martin currently has 160 km/hr winds in its circulation.) The forecast models indicate these will gradually weaken to 80 km/hr over the next three days. Lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
All of next week is looking mild and sometimes wet especially in western counties. The prospects for excessive rainfall totals may have backed off slightly which is good, but I don't think this issue is entirely settled yet. Highs next week 14-16 C will be very mild for mid-November. Eventually a more settled interval will follow, as high pressure builds up, but as that drifts away to the east, a return to mild southerly winds and some rain is likely to follow.
My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, highs near 7 C. Light sleet developed by evening and a heavier fall of wet snow is expected with rain at lower elevations than here, in nearby valleys. Hurricane Martin became extratropical but remains a very powerful storm east of Newfoundland.
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Saturday, 5 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain similar, very mild at times this coming week, above average rainfall in west, closer to average for east, occasional strong southwest winds. The second week in the outlook period now looks unsettled too but temperatures will be more variable.
FORECASTS
TODAY will see some mild partly cloudy intervals developing, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with moderate southwest winds. Highs 13 to 16 C.
TONIGHT windy and sometimes rather squally with showers, lows 8-10 C.
SUNDAY quite windy especially in the north and west, as remnants of Martin move past Donegal Bay. Winds south to southwest 70-110 km/hr in exposed areas, 50-80 km/hr elsewhere. Occasional rain, highs 9-11 C.
MONDAY mild and breezy to windy with occasional rain, heavy at times in western counties. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.
TUESDAY mild and breezy, showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.
This sort of regime will continue with further pulses of heavy rain at times in western counties. Temperatures will be variable between 8 C and 15 C and the timing will depend as much on positions of frontal systems as time of day, so there could be nights that turn milder than days in some cases. The second week of the outlook period looks quite breezy now as the high pressure signal begins to weaken, but more of a westerly regime with temperatures on average close to November normal values.
My local weather brought the first large dump of snow in town, with 20 cms by mid-day. It was a heavy packing sort of snow, and has stopped falling for now but another similar amount is expected later into Sunday-Monday here. Meanwhile a powerful wind storm has hit coastal areas with gusts to 110 km/hr in the Vancouver area. It is very warm in eastern regions of North America with predicted highs over the weekend near record values (23-28 C). That will continue to some extent all week.
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Sunday, 6 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfalls will average 25-50 per cent above normal in the west, somewhat below average or near normal elsewhere.
-- Mostly cloudy with some sunhine on a few days.
-- Moderate south to southwest winds sometimes strong.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms, heavier in western counties. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr but some stronger gusts in Atlantic counties. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy and windy with intervals of rain, lows 8 to 11 C.
MONDAY will continue windy with occasional rain, highs 13 to 16 C.
TUESDAY mostly cloudy with showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue mild, with southerly winds, rain more persistent in western counties than elsewhere. Lows each day about 9 or 10 C, highs 12 to 14 C.
By about next weekend, somewhat less unsettled, as high pressure further east begins to extend its influences west, but this may oscillate back and forth through the weekend and into the following week. Temperatures may be slightly cooler as a result although still above average.
My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy to overcast with passing snow flurries, and cold with highs near 2 C. More persistent snow will develop. The 20 cm cover we had on Friday slumped to about 5-8 cm as that snow was thawing from the contact with the somewhat warmer ground. However some ice is forming where snow has melted, as temperatures dropped to -3 C in the past few hours.
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Monday, 7 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg above normal values, nights particularly mild.
-- Rainfalls will vary from twice normal in the west to somewhat below normal in the east.
-- Mostly cloudy, only limited sunshine around 50-75 per cent of normal.
-- Moderate to strong south to southwest winds at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms, moderate south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Rainfall rather heavy at times in western counties where 20 mm may fall. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast and windy with showers, lows near 8 C.
TUESDAY partly to mostly cloudy, showers or intervals of rain, highs 12 to 14 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy with showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
THURSDAY to SUNDAY will be a very mild interval with southerly winds and almost continuous rain, heavy at times in west, more intermittent further east. Lows each day 8-10 C and highs 12-14 C. By end of this period total weekly rainfall in west near 100 mm, some local flooding likely given the wet conditions previously.
This pattern only gradually transforms into a more seasonable late November regime with passing Atlantic fronts and near average temperatures of around 8-10 C daytime and 2-5 C overnight, with a slight risk of frosts returning eventually.
My local weather on Sunday (and now we too have returned to standard time here) was overcast and cold with intervals of light snow giving a fresh coating of 3-5 cm on the icy remnants of the Friday storm. A heavier snowfall is expected overnight and Monday here as a strong Pacific low moves inland over our region. Our high was only around -2 C. A very cold regime now covers all of western Canada and adjacent northwestern states, while in the east, record warmth continues (24 C in New York City on Sunday, 27 C in some other parts of the eastern U.S.). A possibly final tropical storm or hurricane is brewing for the Bahamas and Florida by end of the week. Its remnant low is expected to curve north and up the eastern seaboard, track as yet not certain, but this would end the warm spell and bring heavy rainfalls there.
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Extreme precipitation figure on yr.no for the 15th, anything behind itbor just a glitch?
https://www.yr.no/en/details/graph/2-2964574/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin%20City/Dublin
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That link may have updated since you looked, but I'm not seeing anything depicted on it on 15th for rainfall. The GFS for that interval is showing moderate rainfall potential on 15th for Dublin, heavier over the Irish Sea and north Wales. Will keep an eye on this, but it's already gone from the linked source apparently.
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Tuesday, 8 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain same, very mild, rain heavy at times in west, less so elsewhere, occasionally strong south to southwest winds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with passing showers and chance of a thunderstorm. Moderate south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with lows 5-8 C.
WEDNESDAY cloudy with some brighter intervals, showers less widespread and mostly confined to north Connacht and west Ulster. Moderate southwest winds, highs 11-14 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY both very mild days with strong southwest winds at times, in particular near Mayo and Donegal coasts where 80-120 km/hr could be observed, more like 50-80 km/hr in most other parts. Some rain at times, more persistent in west. Lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C.
SATURDAY cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading east, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY slightly cooler with occasional rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
MONDAY windy with rain, temperatures steady 10-12 C, winds southwest to west 70-110 km/hr.
Somewhat colder later next week with west to northwest winds, occasional showers embedded and brief outbreaks of rain from frontal waves mainly across the south. Indications that this regime will intensify into stormy conditions at times towards last third of the month.
My local weather was cold with heavy snow all morning, flurries by afternoon, and 25 cm on the ground now, with hints of clearing (so we may get to see the total eclipse of the moon around 0300-0400h local time), temperature near -5 C throughout. It should become dry and very cold for most of the following week. Warm again in eastern North America but turning a bit cooler there. Subtropical Storm Nicole threatens to develop into a cat-1 hurricane near northern Bahamas late tomorrow and then move across north-central Florida, with remnants accelerating up the eastern seaboard by the weekend.
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Wednesday, 9 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Nov 2022 --
-- Temperatures very mild, will average 4-5 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall becoming more confined to western counties where sometimes rather heavy.
-- Partly cloudy skies further east at times may allow for more normal amounts of sunshine.
-- Quite often rather windy from a south to southwest direction.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be overcast at first, partly cloudy later, as showers begin to die off, in moderate southwest winds. Highs 11-14 C.
TONIGHT will remain rather windy but mostly dry with drizzle at times near west coast, southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, lows near 10 C.
THURSDAY will be very mild and strong winds will develop by afternoon in Connacht and west Ulster where southerly to southwesterly gales of 70 to 110 km/hr are likely. Not quite as windy elsewhere. Rain heavy at times near west coast, partly cloudy at times further east. Highs 14 to 16 C.
FRIDAY will also be very mild with winds more moderate, southwest 40-70 km/hr. Some rain at times mostly in west but sometimes spreading further east. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, occasional rain, highs near 13 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers, highs near 12 C.
MONDAY windy with rain becoming heavy at times, south to southwest gales possible in Munster as low pressure takes a more southerly track this time, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
TUESDAY somewhat cooler with occasional rain, westerly winds 40-70 km/hr and highs near 10 C.
WEDNESDAY another strong low expected with rain and strong winds, highs near 12 C.
This unsettled and rather mild pattern will gradually cool towards more normal late November values and then some higher pressure could try to build up for a time, with frosts returning to the picture.
My local weather as we dig out from the snowstorm was partly cloudy to sunny and cold, highs near -2 C, and currently around -8 C with a bright full moon riding quite high. Meanwhile, Nicole almost at hurricane intensity is bearing down on the northern Bahamas and will then go on to tangle with Florida. The very warm spell has ended in the northeastern U.S. as high pressure over the region brings frosty nights and daytime readings around 10 C. It will stay quite warm in the southeast until Nicole has recurved and moved past on Friday, then much colder air can move into all eastern regions. Our weekend snowstorm has died out over the plains states, in favour of a new low near central Utah, heading east to meet up with Nicole around the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast this weekend.
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Thursday, 10 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain same as discussed yesterday, very mild, wet over some western counties, sometimes rather windy.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be very mild and strong winds will develop in Connacht and west Ulster, parts of west Munster, where southerly to southwesterly gales of 70 to 110 km/hr are likely. Not quite as windy elsewhere. Rain heavy at times near west coast, partly cloudy at times further east. Highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will remain very mild and windy with a little further rain mostly in northwest counties. Lows 10-12 C.
FRIDAY will also be very mild with winds more moderate, southwest 40-70 km/hr, except for a brief interval closer to 60-90 km/hr in the northwest. Some rain at times mostly in west but sometimes spreading further east. Highs near 15 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, occasional rain mostly confined to western counties, lows near 9 C and highs near 13 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers and outbreaks of heavy rain 15-30 mm possible, spreading east across central and later eastern counties too, with lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.
MONDAY windy with rain becoming heavy at times by late in the day, south to southwest gales possible in Munster and south Leinster, as low pressure takes a more southerly track this time, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
TUESDAY somewhat cooler with occasional rain, westerly winds 40-70 km/hr and lows near 6 C, highs near 10 C.
WEDNESDAY another strong low expected with rain and strong winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY (17th) breezy and cool with passing showers, some of hail, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
FRIDAY (18th) rain heavy at times, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.
Following this parade of storms, a somewhat more settled interval is indicated as the storm track may shift further south taking storms into France and northern Spain. Confidence in this trend cannot be more than low-moderate. If it happens at all, this would likely just transition back to windy and mild after the storm track splits and the northern branch drops back to where we expect to see it next week.
My local weather on Wednesday was mostly sunny and cool with highs near -2 C. Now Hurricane Nicole is slowly closing in on eastern Florida after moving through the northern Bahamas earlier. It will likely come inland near Melbourne FL just south of the space centre, and slowly weaken in terms of wind although bringing heavy rains all the way north to the inland northeast states by Saturday.
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Friday, 11 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue very mild, with rainfall eventually amounting to normal or slightly above normal values. Strong south to southwest winds at times, some sunshine may keep pace with the low November average of 2 to 2.5 hours a day.
FORECASTS
TODAY will continue very mild (17 C at 0600h at Newport!) with winds more becoming more moderate, southwest 40-70 km/hr, except for a brief interval closer to 60-90 km/hr in the northwest. Some rain at times mostly in west but sometimes spreading further east. Highs 15 to 17 C.
TONIGHT will be very mild also, with rain at times in western counties, lows 10 to 12 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, occasional rain mostly confined to western counties, and highs 13 to 15 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers and outbreaks of heavy rain 15-30 mm possible, spreading east across central and later eastern counties too, with lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.
MONDAY windy with rain becoming heavy at times, south to southwest gales possible in Munster and south Leinster, as low pressure (remnants of Nicole) moves past Connacht and Ulster around mid-day. Risk of strong wind gusts 80-120 km/hr in exposed coastal regions, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C. Some rainfalls 20-30 mm, possible localized flooding.
TUESDAY somewhat cooler with occasional rain, westerly winds 40-70 km/hr and lows near 6 C, highs near 10 C.
WEDNESDAY another strong low expected with rain and strong winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY (17th) breezy and cool with passing showers, some of hail, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
FRIDAY (18th) rain or showers, times, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.
By the weekend of 19th-20th, windy and mild with rain, strong south to southwest winds, highs near 13 C.
That will likely be followed by somewhat cooler westerly winds, a brief dry spell is possible, but it never seems to take very long to get the Atlantic conveyer belt running after any short interruptions.
My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cloudy intervals, highs near -1 C. We discovered that our 20 cm snowpack quickly became a mere 5 cm or less in the nearby valley where it was closer to 3 C, but there's nothing but cold and dry weather ahead here, aside from some very brief flurries with weak fronts between the arctic outbreaks. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Nicole is now in Georgia heading quickly north, and its remnants will be near Albany NY by Saturday, southern Newfoundland on Sunday, and approaching Ireland on Monday. I'm not sure if this low will be given a storm name or called Nicole by the Irish or UK met services, it may get a different storm name.
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Saturday, 12 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 12-18 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average 2-3 deg above normal with a sharp decline after Wednesday.
-- Rainfall will gradually amount to near normal values in most regions, and somewhat above normal in parts of west.
-- Although rather cloudy, enough breaks could allow some sunshine to add up to near average amounts.
-- Frequent strong winds from south to southwest, in particular Monday and mid-week.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a fairly dry start, and a few outbreaks of light rain later, mostly confined to western counties. Continuing very mild, highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will bring occasional rain, moderate south winds and lows 8-10 C.
SUNDAY will be breezy and mild with occasional rain, heavier by mid-day, spreading to all regions (15-30 mm). Highs 12-15 C.
MONDAY will become very windy with squally showers, winds south to southwest 80-120 km/hr in exposed coastal locations, 60-90 km/hr more protected inland areas. This will be due to remnants of former Hurricane Nicole now located in New England and moving very rapidly. Although the core of the low will circle around towards Iceland well offshore, the frontal system has a strong gradient. Lows near 9 C and highs 11-14 C.
TUESDAY will bring partly cloudy to overcast skies, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
WEDNESDAY turns windy again as a second low from North America gets swept into the dying circulation of post-tropical Nicole, and follows a similar path, with southerly gales becoming southwesterly 70-110 km/hr, and periods of rain. Lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
THURSDAY will turn colder with westerly winds, passing showers, lows near 4 C and highs 7-9 C.
FRIDAY will continue rather cool and breezy, some dry intervals and some passing showers, lows near 2 C, local frosts possible, and highs around 8 to 10 C.
SATURDAY (19th) another Atlantic storm returns milder air in stages, rain and strong south to southwest winds, lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C. Then on SUNDAY (20th) partly cloudy to overcast and breezy with showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C.
The regime stays active through the following week, with near normal temperatures and occasional strong winds and rain.
My local weather on Friday was overcast and cold with a low cloud ceiling, sun sometimes dimly visible, highs near -2 C.
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Sunday, 13 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal, higher at first, then closer to average by Thursday-Friday, milder again by next weekend.
-- Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal in many areas.
-- Sunshine will be quite limited, but could approach the mid-November normal amount of only 2 hours a day.
-- Frequent strong south to southwest winds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy and mild with outbreaks of heavy rain slowly moving further east, reaching central counties by nightfall. Winds southerly 40-70 km/hr, highs 13 to 16 C.
TONIGHT the heavy rain will gradually spread into eastern counties. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm in central and eastern counties. Winds gradually diminishing, lows 8-10 C.
MONDAY will start out bright in most regions, with winds gradually increasing from the south. Rain will move in late in the day from west to east. winds will increase to 70-110 km/hr by evening. Highs 11-14 C late afternoon or evening, temperatures 7-9 C most of the day.
TUESDAY will turn somewhat cooler with passing showers, westerly breezes, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY will become windy with intervals of heavy rain mostly later in the day. Lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.
THURSDAY will turn cooler with westerly winds and passing showers, some with hail. Lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
FRIDAY also quite cool with a few showers, and brighter spells, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.
By SATURDAY (19th) another briefly milder interval with strong south to southwest winds, rain heavy at times. Lows near 4 C and highs 11-13 C.
SUNDAY (20th) appears cooler again, with showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
More intervals of rain and strong winds are likely, but storms will begin to slow down and by about the 23rd a deep low is indicated almost stationary west of Connacht, with higher pressure over eastern Europe beginning to send cooler air west. How this all plays out may not be settled for several days, at the moment the models are suggesting a drop in temperature to 3-7 C, localized frosts, but any further precipitation mostly liquid in form. Considerable uncertainty is associated with this development.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny and cold with highs around -3 C. Remnants of Nicole moved quickly east through New England and eastern Canada and the low is now located just east of Newfoundland. It will quickly cross most of the Atlantic, swerves north around 20W mid-day Monday, and its frontal systems will then rotate through Ireland Monday night. The low itself will come no closer than 18W before heading northwest towards Iceland.
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Monday, 14 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week ahead continue on from previous reports, becoming very wet and staying rather mild although not quite as mild as recent days. Sometimes rather windy.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out partly cloudy and mostly dry. Increasing cloud, with rain towards mid-afternoon, south winds increasing to 60-90 km/hr in southern and western counties. Highs 8 to 10 C.
TONIGHT will be windy with squally showers, winds south to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Later on, winds will veer to southwest and ease off to around 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures will rise slightly during the night to around 10-12 C.
TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with passing showers. Highs 11-13 C.
WEDNESDAY becoming overcast, with intervals of rain, winds south, backing to southeast, as stronger low pressure develops near the south coast. Details on this may change, but it looks at present as though 10-20 mm rain and just moderate winds for Ireland, as a stronger low moves into Britain during Wednesday night. Temperatures steady 8-10 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.
FRIDAY, partly cloudy with passing showers, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.
NEXT WEEKEND will become rather stormy with strong south to southwest winds returning, rain at times, highs 11-13 C.
The indications for the last week of November remain similar with passing frontal systems, but the parade of storms slowing to a crawl and strong lows hanging around for several days at a time off to the west or northwest, resulting in partly cloudy to overcast skies with moderate south to southwest winds, showers, and temperatures not far from 10 C.
My local weather on Sunday was rather cloudy with a few breaks in the low overcast, and quite cold, highs near -4 C. Our snow from about a week ago has settled to around a 15 cm depth but there is also considerable ice from daily freeze-thaw cycles. The pattern here remains quite static and high pressure trapped in valleys will continue to bring alternating clear skies and low cloud intervals with temperatures well below our November average (most years this sort of weather would only begin in late December or January).
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Tuesday, 15 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 15-21 Nov --
-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal, and rather variable from day to day.
-- Rainfalls will amount to near normal amounts, but heavier rains are expected in the second week of the outlook.
-- Sunshine will be infrequent, perhaps half to two-thirds of average.
-- Some strong south to southwest winds around Saturday and again Monday.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some brighter intervals, and while rather dry to start, scattered showers will increase and the south will end the day with occasional light rain, as winds turn more to the east there. Highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy, any breaks most likely in north Connacht. Rain at times across the south and southeast. Lows 5-7 C.
WEDNESDAY rain may become heavier for a time in the southeast as strong low pressure forms off the coasts of Wexford and south Wales. Winds turning northeast 40-60 km/hr in parts of south Leinster and east Munster, returning to a westerly direction later in the day. Winds more variable with scattered showers further north and west. Highs 8 to 11 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be rather cool with westerly winds and passing showers, some with hail. Lows 2 to 5 C, highs 7 to 10 C.
SATURDAY turning very windy and milder, with outbreaks of heavy rain likely. Winds increasing to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY will see a return to cooler temperatures and some further rain, highs near 8 C.
MONDAY another rather strong low is expected to bring another interval of strong south to southwest winds and temperatures near 12 C, with some rain at times.
The rest of next week appears somewhat cooler with mainly westerly winds and some outbreaks of showery rain, highs 6-9 C. Another more unsettled period could follow near the end of that week, and then the month may end on a colder note with high pressure to the east finally managing to get a turn in charge.
My local weather was a mixture of low cloud at hilltop elevations, and sunshine more frequent in nearby valleys. The sun made it feel a bit milder and highs reached about +1C locally and +4C in nearby valleys. It's still quite cold at night under high pressure.
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Wednesday, 16 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 16-22 Nov will change a bit from the recent past as temperatures settle in closer to the seasonal mid-November averages, and rainfall also amounts to near average amounts. With some breaks between storms now expected, sunshine might run a bit ahead of the weak average of only 2 hours a day. Windy for a time on Saturday but otherwise winds light to moderate most of the time. Heavier rain in the second week of the outlook may cause flooding concerns in parts of the south and west however.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be at least partly cloudy and in a few areas, sunny for a part of the day, with increasing cloud later. Mostly dry with a few isolated showers. Cool, highs 7 to 9 C.
TONIGHT will be rather cloudy in the south with intermittent light rain. The storm system causing this is expected to be well off to the south so that any strong winds will be over coastal waters of the southeast. Some clear intervals further north, isolated frost possible. Lows will range from -1 to +3 C in most areas, 3 to 7 C south coast.
THURSDAY will be breezy and rather cool with a few passing showers, some with hail and thunder. Highs 7 to 10 C.
FRIDAY will continue quite cool with moderate westerly winds and lows near 2 C, highs near 8 C.
SATURDAY may start out frosty in the east and north with increasing cloud late overnight in south and west. Lows -2 to +4 C. Becoming windy with rain, turning milder late in the day with highs 8 to 12 C. Winds south to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and cooler with westerly breezes and passing showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
MONDAY another frontal system will bring rain and wind, highs near 12 C.
The rest of next week looks somewhat more settled with low pressure areas slowing down and remaining off to the northwest, promoting a partly cloudy to overcast southwesterly flow, some showers, highs 8 to 12 C. It could become rather stormy again near the end of the month.
My local weather on Tuesday remained cloudy and cold, with highs near -1 C. The cold air over western regions is spilling out into the eastern half of the continent finally, and this will intensify, leading to heavy lake effect snowfalls, especially around Buffalo NY which faces the potential for over a meter of snow by this weekend. These heavy falls will be limited to areas where west-southwest winds blow inland from the still-warm lakes (Lake Erie current temp 13 C).
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Thursday, 17 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue similar to the previous report, near average in temperature and rainfall amounts, set to increase for rainfall after the weekly interval, and rather limited sunshine but perhaps close to average.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy where low cloud or fog break up, but some inland valleys could remain rather foggy or will see persistent low cloud that could keep temperatures rather cold locally with highs 5-7 C. Where skies brighten, highs 8-10 C. Some showers near coastal margins and rain could back into east Ulster from the northward-moving low over Britain later today.
TONIGHT partly cloudy with local frosts and dense fog patches, isolated sleety showers possible. Lows -2 to +3 C.
FRIDAY will become more breezy but will continue colder, with passing showers that could become wintry on hills. Highs 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY will start out cool and frosty in some eastern counties, then cloud will increase rapidly, followed by strong southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, and rain for most of the afternoon. Rapidly turning milder, but cold air returning by evening on westerly winds. Lows 0 to 3 C, highs 8 to 11 C.
SUNDAY will be breezy and cold with passing showers, lows 1-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.
MONDAY will start off with variable cloud and a few showers, then intervals of heavy rain will arrive with a brief interval of stronger winds, highs near 9 C.
The mid-week period will bring several more windy intervals and rain, becoming rather heavy over western counties. A little milder with highs near 11 C.
After a few dry and settled days with frosts, the month will likely end on another stormy note with a renewed strong southwest to west flow for early December.
My local weather is stuck in a rut under high pressure, with a lot of low cloud and mist over the local hills, freezing on trees to create a picturesque ice fog appearance outside the town (the urban heat island must be just enough to prevent this in town). Highs close to -1 C. Great Lakes region bracing for a very strong snow squall event on west-southwest winds sometimes varying in direction, spreading the heavy snow around somewhat in snow belt areas. All areas outside the snow belts could also see 1-3 cm of snow from frontal systems that are currently bringing snow and strong winds to Minnesota and North Dakota.
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Friday, 18 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average near normal, with variations between slightly above and below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will generally amount to near-normal totals, with heavier amounts continuing into the second week.
-- Sunshine will probably manage to amount to normal totals.
-- Winds briefly rather strong on Saturday, and possibly again late in the period.
FORECASTS
TODAY will become more breezy and will remain rather cold with passing showers that could become wintry on hills. Some more persistent rain at times in east Ulster could spread into north Leinster with stronger northwest winds associated with a low moving slowly north through southern Scotland. Highs for most places 6 to 9 C.
TONIGHT will start out clear to partly cloudy with localized frosts inland south and east, lows -1 to +3 C. Cloud will increase over western counties, lows 3-6 C. Rain by morning in the southwest, stronger southwest winds developing.
SATURDAY will start out cool and frosty in some eastern counties, then cloud will increase rapidly, followed by strong southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, and rain for most of the afternoon. Rapidly turning milder, but cold air returning by evening on westerly winds. Lows -1 to 3 C, highs 8 to 11 C, mildest near southeast coast. About 10-15 mm rain likely.
SUNDAY will be breezy and cold with passing showers, lows 1-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.
MONDAY the outlook has changed somewhat with low pressure arriving earlier and moving through the south instead of Connacht-Ulster. The results will be an earlier interval of rain with heaviest falls in the southeast and east, followed by partial clearing and moderate westerly winds. Temperatures steady 6-9 C in most areas, possibly reaching 10 or 11 C in the southeast.
From TUESDAY to late in the week, details somewhat uncertain but a series of lows off the west coast now appear capable of moving close enough to the coast to bring intervals of heavy rain and strong south to southwest winds, especially towards Thursday 24th, but details on all this will probably not be clarified until after the weekend. Temperatures will be around 8-10 C. A cooler and dry interval could follow for a few days but it will no doubt return to unsettled and windy before December opens its account.
My local weather turned sunny as a very strong and cold arctic high settled in over the region. The daytime high was a chilly -4 C, after a skiff of new snow (1-2 cm) in the pre-dawn hours. Tonight has stayed clear and temperatures are already -10 C heading for about -15 C. The advertised mega-snow event in Buffalo, NY has begun with lots of thunder-snow reported and about 30-40 cm on the ground already. This will continue more or less non-stop to Sunday. Other lake effect snow belt regions prone to west-southwest winds will see significant amounts too, otherwise the region will be largely dry and cold. Except for a few parts of California, the whole continent is being affected by this unusually early winter pattern.
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Saturday, 19 November, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Nov remain close to average in most respects, although it will frequently be rather wet and windy later in the week.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out bright and chilly, with some local fog patches and the potential for brief intervals of black ice to form on some roads in north central counties, but cloud and then rain will arrive on stronger south to southwest winds later this morning (south, west) to early afternoon (north, east). Winds will increase to about 50-80 km/hr, with highs reaching 8 to 10 C. About 5-10 mm of rain is expected, and it may become rather foggy with the rain especially over higher parts of the north.
TONIGHT winds will moderate as they veer to a westerly direction, and a few showers are likely with lows 2 to 5 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with blustery southwest winds, cool, with a few passing showers. Highs near 8 C.
MONDAY a rather weak disturbance will arrive in the early morning hours, clearing most regions except the east coast by daybreak. This will keep overnight lows from falling much lower than 7 C. The light rain with this system, and rather moderate southerly winds, will give way to a westerly flow with variable skies and isolated showers. Highs 8-10 C.
TUESDAY will continue rather cool and windy at times with outbreaks of light rain. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-10 C.
From WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY a number of strong lows are indicated west of the Atlantic coastal counties, inducing several intervals of strong southerly winds, that may spread over all regions but could at times be more confined to those coastal areas. Intervals of rain likely at times and temperatures through the period generally in the range of 7 to 11 C.
The pattern may relax somewhat after those storms, with temperatures perhaps falling off slightly below average briefly (4-7 C), but the first week of December also looks rather unsettled in a southwest flow and temperatures back up closer to 10 C.
My local weather remained mostly clear, with sunshine and highs near -3 C. It is clear and very cold at the present hour (-10 C). The Buffalo snowstorm has piled up incredible totals in some areas just south of the city, around Hamburg NY one observer has been posting videos of snowfalls near 1.5 metres with perhaps 24 hours left in the event. It's quite localized as other parts of the region have seen only small amounts so far but winds are shifting to spread the snow more widely today. The event will end on Sunday with strong winds veering more to the northwest, and this snow seems likely to remain in the region all week, gradually compacting down to more manageable amounts, as temperatures stay rather cool for the week.
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Sunday, 20 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain fairly close to normal values for late November; it will be quite unsettled and some places may exceed normal rainfall by 25 to 50 per cent. Moderate southwest to west winds will dominate.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some squally with hail and thunder (most likely in west Munster to midlands). Southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 8 to 10 C.
TONIGHT strong southeast to south winds 60-90 km/hr will set in rapidly with outbreaks of rain, 10-15 mm now expected by morning. Temperatures steady 5-7 C may rise to near 10 C later in the night.
MONDAY the wind and rain will rapidly move east off the coast, followed by variable cloud and moderate westerly winds of 40-70 km/hr, with passing showers. Another interval of rain likely by evening in west. Highs 7-9 C.
TUESDAY mild and breezy with rain at times, lows 4-6 C and highs 8-12 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will remain unsettled with lows passing at regular intervals, but some track details are not confirmed yet; one low could be further east around Thursday which might lead to intervals of heavier rain and strong winds in the east, but otherwise the most unsettled conditions would generally be near Atlantic coasts. Highs during this interval 8-12 C, nights relatively mild (5-8 C).
By the following WEEKEND somewhat cooler and more settled briefly, before another series of disturbances resumes the following week.
My local weather on Saturday was mostly sunny and cold with highs near -4 C. The lake effect snowstorm around Buffalo NY shifted further north to give the hardest hit south towns a chance to catch up with snow clearance but the task is massive in some areas (150-200 cm of snow). Windy and a bit colder today in those areas then a slightly milder week ahead with only small amounts of additional snow expected until around Friday.
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Monday, 21 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue unsettled with near normal temperatures, perhaps somewhat more rain than average, and a bit of sunshine at times despite a rather cloudy regime.
FORECASTS
TODAY some further heavy rainfalls are expected to move gradually east and head out to sea from Leinster by late morning to mid-day. A further 10-15 mm rain could fall leading to some minor flooding in parts of the southeast. Partial clearing will follow, winds may slacken from the current strong southerly 50-80 km/hr for a time, then pick up again by afternoon from a westerly direction, with passing showers returning. Temperatures will slowly fall to around 7 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some clear intervals allowing a touch of frost in places. Rain will likely begin to spread in again from the southwest by morning. Lows -1 to +4 C.
TUESDAY will be breezy with occasional rain and highs near 8 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue unsettled with some rain each day, occasionally becoming heavy near Atlantic coasts, and less frequently in other regions too. Winds generally southwest 40-70 km/hr with a few more blustery intervals. Highs each day 8-11 C. Not much difference in overnight temperatures from that.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY look quite mild as the southwest flow slackens gradually but continues to bring in rather mild air, possibly a break developing at some point this weekend from the rain too, highs near 11 or 12 C.
Some guidance is now saying that high pressure from the Atlantic will reposition further north and create a cool northeast flow for much of the following week (28 Nov into early Dec). As this period has seen a lot of inconsistent guidance from models over the past week, I would not place a lot of confidence in that changed trend but we'll keep watching to see if this becomes more certain, or if the guidance just goes back to the default position of mild and unsettled southwest flow.
My local weather on Sunday continued rather cold but the pattern is now slowly changing to a milder western regime with the cold now well established further east. No increase in temperatures yet (high was again near -3 C) but more mid-level cloud from weak warm fronts. The Buffalo snow event seems to have finally reached its conclusion although there could be small additional amounts from time to time this week, until it turns a bit milder later in the week. Amounts measured range from 75 cm in the northern part of the city to 2 meters in the south. There have also been some heavy local falls near Watertown NY, in western lower Michigan, and in central Ontario from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These areas have seen more typical 30-50 cm falls. It is also quite cold with temperatures across the eastern states generally 10-15 deg below normal for this time of year.
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Tuesday, 22 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain similar, near normal temperatures and rainfalls, rather cloudy most of the time, but a more settled interval in about a week, with somewhat colder temperatures.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be rather cool and blustery with passing showers developing, but some fairly long dry intervals in many places too. Moderate west to northwest breezes 40-60 km/hr, highs 7 to 9 C.
TONIGHT will become rather windy and about 10-15 mm of rain will fall over just a few hours, moving rapidly east, with winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr for a time. Temperatures may fall slightly from afternoon to evening but will tend to rise with the onset of the rain and stronger wind to reach 8-10 C.
WEDNESDAY will then begin to clear partially from the west as the overnight rain moves east, followed by further showers at times, variable amounts of cloud and moderate southwest winds. Highs 8-10 C.
THURSDAY will be breezy to windy with occasional rain, lows 5-7 C and highs 9-12 C.
FRIDAY will also be rather breezy and unsettled with similar temperatures, winds southerly 50-80 km/hr.
SATURDAY will turn even milder with variable cloud and passing showers, moderate south to southwest winds, lows 6-8 C and highs 11-14 C.
SUNDAY will begin to turn cooler with isolated showers, partly cloudy to overcast skies, lows 3-5 C and highs 7-10 C.
Most of the following week will be more settled, with winds falling off and backing to an easterly direction at times, as high pressure further east begins to absorb the remnants of Atlantic high pressure. The week is likely to turn rather cold, with highs 4-6 C and overnight lows sometimes into the frosty range of -3 to -1 C. This ridge may then rebuild and slowly drop south to allow a gradual resumption of a more westerly wind flow, but rain may hold off for the first part of that process with active frontal disturbances quite a bit further north in a stronger westerly flow up around northern Scotland. That regime could become rather variable for temperatures allowing in a few colder spells separated by near normal temperatures which by early December will be 6-9 C in the daytime hours.
My local weather continues to moderate slowly, under overcast skies temperatures edged up to around +2 C, but have fallen back a little below freezing now, and a weak push of Pacific moisture will likely result in sleety falls of snow with some icy patches likely a bit closer to the coast where it has warmed up to a more normal level of about 8-10 C. The eastern cold spell is also moderating slowly and it looks like a more active period over the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday period coming up (this Thursday is their Thanksgiving, setting off a four-day holiday period that we don't share on this side of the border).
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Wednesday, 23 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the interval of 23-29 Nov --
-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal, slightly cooler by end of this interval.
-- Rainfalls will amount to near normal amounts, falling frequently.
-- Sunshine should also manage to keep pace with the very low average values at this time of year (1.5-2.0 hours daily).
-- Frequently quite windy from the southwest.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy with passing showers or outbreaks of rain, becoming quite windy by evening with an interval of steady rain. Highs around 9 to 11 C.
TONIGHT will be windy with squally showers, winds southwest 60-90 km/hr. Some high waves likely on south and west coasts as new moon raises tidal levels. Lows 5-8 C.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and windy with showers, highs 8 to 10 C.
FRIDAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, breezy, lows 5-7 C and highs 9 to 11 C.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, lows 6-8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows 5-7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will turn somewhat colder, with showers mainly isolated to north and west coasts. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 9 C.
It now appears that the cool and dry spell may be held back to the east as the Atlantic won't quite die down during the cooler start to next week and will subsequently try to push back in around the first of December. This outlook is still rather low-confidence however.
My local weather saw 10-15 cm snowfalls with some freezing drizzle added, making roads very slippery as temperatures hovered around -1 C, and this may continue with changing types of precipitation as it turns a bit milder again.
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Thursday, 24 November, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS continue similar with the unsettled, rather mild regime slowly fading out over the interval, although anything really different will likely have to wait until December.
FORECASTS
TODAY will become quite windy near the west and south coasts, and moderately windy elsewhere. Winds will increase to southwest 60-90 km/hr in some exposed coastal locations, veering westerly late in the day. Isolated gusts to 110 km/hr and elevated tidal levels are likely. An interval of heavy showers will push gradually east, 10-15 mm could fall by early afternoon. Squally showers will mark the passage of a cold front this afternoon with chance of thunderstorms, hail and gusty winds. Highs 9-12 C. (note there will be a low freezing level making this situation quite unstable, heavy falls of hail or sleet are possible on higher terrain by afternoon)
TONIGHT will be breezy with showers, lows 6-8 C.
FRIDAY will continue rather windy (westerly 40-70 km/hr) and unsettled with passing showers, highs 10-13 C.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and quite mild with a few showers or outbreaks of light rain, more persistent near Atlantic coasts. Winds south to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows 6-8 C and highs 11-14 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will remain partly cloudy with showers, temperatures falling back slightly each day, highs near 11 C on Sunday and 9 C on Monday. The showers may die out by Monday afternoon with sunny intervals more frequent.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY confidence in model guidance is not all that high, but the suggestion now is that the Atlantic will make one final attempt to restore control, but will begin to get pushed back by slowly swelling high pressure moving out of Russia into the Baltic regions. This may create an east-west split between frequent light rain and mild southerly winds near the west coast (10-12 C), trending to partly cloudy and somewhat cooler in the east (7-9 C). Even colder weather is possible during the first week to ten days of December as a colder east wind sets in, but by then, confidence is very low in these scenarios.
My local weather turned a bit milder which made it very foggy, a light mist in town and dense fog on higher terrain just outside the town, with near zero visibility there. It was around +1 or +2 C but the 20 cm snow cover (on top of what was left from two weeks ago) from the previous day has remained essentially stable. Looks like we will have one more mild day then back into a colder pattern with more snow.
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